No drop-outs, but some scrambling in the next tourney projections

Here is my second projected tourney for 2013-2014:

 

First Round:

In Tampa:

#7 Miami (FL)(at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (American Athletic)  Playing FSU will move the Canes up or send them down and out

 

In Atlanta:

#8 Clemson (at-large) versus #9 Missouri (at-large) Tiger-Battle! Mizzou loses but doesn't drop out?    All of the previous week's SEC losses still left the door open for the at-large.  But, this still could be a slot for either Fresno State or Northern Illinois

 

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl:

#1 Alabama (SEC) versus Clemson, Miami, or Central Florida.  Assumes Alabama will play Missouri in regular season, otherwise Tide plays 8/9 winner.  

 

Rose Bowl:

#4 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus #5 Stanford (at-large)  Big Ten-Pac-12 tradition!  But four straight Roses for Cardinal

 

Fiesta Bowl:

#2 Oregon (ACC) versus Missouri, Miami, or Central Florida... Fiesta would be rooting for Mizzou to deliver a ton of fans

 

Orange Bowl:

#3 Florida State (Pac-12) versus #6 Baylor (Big XII)... FSU  drops a slot and Baylor moves up a bit, with big impact.  FSU would be happy to be #3 Orange, but still will fight to be thrilled with a #2.  The drop from #2 to #3 shows how important the regular season still is, with the difference of potential opponents of those two slots.  And Baylor's rise gets them out of a first round game, so a major improvement. 

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena

 

Very ACCeptable first projections for the college football tourney

The first BCS standings are out and that means to me, (a) I can put together my, "if the tournament was held today, what would it look like" projections, and (b) I have to find a way to create standings next season when there is no BCS!

 

So the shocker has to be the ACC, with the big “so far” attached.  Can an ACC team make the top four?  Can there be an at-large team from the ACC?  Or two?!

 

And it is early yet, so Fresno State or Northern Illinois may eventually break into this party!

 

Here are my first projected standings for 2013-2014:

 

First Round:

In Tampa:

#7 Miami (FL)(at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (conference formerly known as Big East)  Interesting Florida battle, and the winner could end up in the Orange Bowl

 

In Arlington TX:

#8 Baylor (Big XII) versus #9 Clemson (at-large) Clemson remembers travelling to play Wisconsin in Green Bay.  This looks like an opportunity for Clemson to have a tough road trip against a tourney newbie.  By the end of the year, this could be the spot for Fresno or NIU

 

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl:

#1 Alabama (SEC) versus Miami, Clemson, or Baylor  Not certain who Alabama would play because of two ACC/FSU opponents in the First Round, so basically Alabama gets the lowest ranked of the ACC teams or Baylor if both ACC schools go down.  Should Bama fans be buying up tickets for Indy’s Semi-Finals? Seems like the Final Four is likely for the Tide

 

Rose Bowl:

#4 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus #6 Stanford (at-large)  OSU gets Stanford to avoid an Oregon-Stanford rematch  Stanford would be looking at a fourth straight Rose Bowl win and fourth consecutive trip to Final Four, though Indy would love OSU to make it, especially with Notre Dame and Louisville not looking likely to contend for a Semi-Finals slot

 

Orange Bowl:

#2 Florida State (ACC) versus Central Florida, Baylor, or Miami FSU actually claims the ACC Orange Bowl slot?  ACC teams have seemed stuck in the First Round!  But can the team that was easily handled by Alabama last season in the Sugar Bowl be improved enough to contend for a title this year?

 

Fiesta Bowl:

#3 Oregon (Pac-12) versus #5 Missouri (SEC) Fiesta won’t mind so much the return of Oregon (a Fiesta fixture lately), because Missouri will “Show me” how to sell tickets.  Indianapolis might be silently rooting for Mizzou fans to hit town for the Semi-Finals too.  Frankly, the Alabama/Oregon/Stanford Final Four “occupation” might be getting a little old for some fans in general, and add in Florida State and Indianapolis may not have a local flavor for its Final Four

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena

No hoax! Notre Dame wins National Championship; defeats Stanford 28-24

When Notre Dame struggled past Louisville to open the tournament, whereas Alabama, Oregon, and Stanford cruised, generally the Irish were counted out of the National Championship chase. However, with Stanford courteously removing SEC schools Florida and Alabama, ND ended up eliminating the Pac-12's Oregon and Cardinal to win the another National Championship in their glorious gridiron history.

Notre Dame took the early lead and held it for the duration. With just under 10 minutes left in the opening quarter, ND QB Everett Golson hit TJ Jones on a 5 yard TD pass for the Irish 7-0 lead.

At about the same point of the second quarter, Irish RB Theo Riddick ran it in from six yards out, and ND held a two TD lead. Stanford was determined to keep it close. The Cardinal responded with a 1 yard Anthony Wilkerson TD run, to cut the lead to 14-7.

ND was on their game this night, and Cierre Wood ran it in from 7 yards out for the 21-7 lead. But Stanford quieted the Irish followers on the ensuing kickoff, as Kelsey Young return for 94 yard TD trimmed the lead to 21-14, which was the score as teams retreated for halftime.

The game remained tight in the third, with no scoring. Early in the fourth, Stanford kicker Jordan Williamson's 24 yard FG cut the ND lead to 21-17. With five minutes to play, Everett Golson ran in a touchdown from 15 yards out to provide a 28-17 cushion. Stanford tightened the game on a 19 yard Kevin Hogan to Jamal-Rashad Patterson TD pass, and the lead was 28-24. But Stanford never threatened, as Notre Dame recovered an onside kick, and Theo Riddick runs killed the clock. Notre Dame wins the National Championship!

Final 2012-2013 tournament results:

FIRST ROUND:

In Atlanta:
7 Florida State 21
10 Wisconsin 14

In Chicago:
8 Northern Illinois 10
9 Louisville 25

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Fiesta:
1 Notre Dame 17
9 Louisville 10

Orange:
4 Oregon 35
5 Kansas State 17

Sugar:
2 Alabama 42
7 Florida State 17

Rose:
3 Florida 23
6 Stanford 34

Semi-Finals in Arlington, Texas: (January 12th)

1 Notre Dame 49
4 Oregon 27

2 Alabama 7
6 Stanford 20

BCS Championship in Miami: (January 26th)

1 Notre Dame 28
6 Stanford 24

Inquisition not necessary: Manti Te'o mistakes are part of life, just magnified by lens of celebrity

There was a time that it seemed like great high school basketball centers came in groups of three.  One year in the late 70’s, the trio was Ralph Sampson, Sam Bowie, and St. Louis’ Steve Stipanovich.  Stipanovich eventually became the number two pick in the 1983 NBA Draft behind Sampson after attending the University of Missouri.

In December of 1980, about a month after Stipanovich turned twenty, he made the news for something besides hoops.  Stipanovich was shot in the shoulder and he told police that a masked intruder, wearing cowboy boots and a flannel shirt, broke into his apartment on Sunrise Drive in Columbia, Missouri, and shot him while screaming obscenities about basketball players.

The next day Stipanovich recanted the story and admitted that he shot himself by accident.

Stipanovich was the subsequent victim of visiting arena taunts, my recollection is that some student sections waved toy guns.  Imagine dealing with the security scrutiny for a bunch of students bearing toy arms in 2013 arena pre-game lines.  Stipo did something dumb, lied about, but doesn’t appear to have become a national pariah.  In fact, Stipanovich and his wife Terri are involved with the Mercy Ministries program in the St. Louis area, providing temporary home for young women recovering from abuse.  Doesn't sound like someone John Walsh is hunting down.

So, my feeling about Manti Te'o is that, no matter what the real story is, he did stupid things and made real mistakes, just like most people in their college years.  If you yourself never did anything stupid during those years, I bet you know people who did.  My only feeling about what I read in scribes’ columns, that "Manti Te'o has to do more, has to come clean, blah, blah."  The thing is, no, he doesn’t, and secondly, any resources spent on journalistic “getting to the bottom of it” will be such a waste of time.  When investigative reporting is more of an endangered species than the Tasmanian Wolf, that this story will be well researched just ain’t right.  Maybe finding out why Ray Lewis ditched his white suit, so we can determine if he is America’s most beloved murderer, and whether any time he rides in a limo, he hears The Tell-Tale Heart from under the floorboards.  That would be a better 30 for 30.

Manti Te'o is going through what a lot of people go through during college.  They make mistakes, either big or small, they tell tales to reduce embarrassment, and then feel the joy of their peers’ unending ridicule.  And whether you are a kid featured on CNNSI or the generic, faceless dorm floor geek of the week, most will learn some life lessons, including that sometimes self-effacement is the greater tool in adulthood. 

As far as draft stock and his bottom line, if Manti Te'o is a good linebacker, he will get work.  If not, he won’t.  Ray Lewis is beloved.  If he stunk on the field, he would not be.
 

As he has transformed from hero to jerk, I think of Michael Jordan’s dreams of going back to a time he could ride bikes to the mall and just hang out.  Unlike American Idolists or Honey Boo Boo’s, young athletes are just playing to make the team, and if they keep making it, they become celebrities.  How many people are telling this season’s high school hoops phenom Jabari Parker, “Maybe you should consider giving up basketball.  Your life will be spent signing autographs and never being able to spend carefree hours at the mall.”  Let’s ask him in 20 years if someone should have. 

Semi-Finals Saturday Super Shockers! Notre Dame controls Oregon 49-27; Bama loses QB and game to Stanford, 20-7

Heading to Cowboys Stadium, fans attending the Semi-Finals certainly expected two entertaining games, but also wins that would provide an Alabama-Oregon final.  In college football, the best laid schemes....

GAME 1: #1 Notre Dame 49, #4 Oregon 27

So typical for Notre Dame's season: after a listless effort that eventually lead to a 17-10 win over Louisville, a seemingly different Notre Dame team showed up that rolled up an early lead over Oregon.

Maybe conjuring up some Joe Montana Cotton Bowl Magic of 1979, Notre Dame was in control from the start.  The Irish jumped to a 21-0 lead by early in the second quarter on Theo Riddick's 4-yard run and Everett Golson's TD passes of 8 yards and 55 yards.

The Notre Dame defense dominated early, as Oregon punted four times and lost the ball on downs before getting a break when an Irish fumble after a reception gave the Ducks the ball on the ND 21. Two plays later, Oregon QB Marcus Mariota's 22-yard touchdown pass cut the lead to 21-7.

Notre Dame quickly added two more touchdowns to put it out of reach at 35-7. Riddick burst up the middle for his second touchdown of the game, a 26-yarder, and, after Baylor punted yet again, Cierre Wood broke free for a 43-yard touchdown run with 1:58 left before halftime.  An Oregon field goal made the halftime score 35-10, and Notre Dame fans' eyes were looking toward a Miami championship game match-up against the winner of the second game of the session.

 

GAME 2: #6 Stanford 20, #2 Alabama 7

 

Some games, first drives matter, some games, they don't.  In their third consecutive Final Four, the previous two losses to Auburn and LSU came after impressive first drives by the Cardinal.  In those two games, their foes went on to dominate the Cardinal. 

 

In this game, Alabama star QB AJ McCarron was injured after an awkward fall during the Tide's first drive, and could not return. 

 

Both teams seemed to struggle through the first half.  Stanford's six first half possession's included three punts, an interception, and a fumble, but their other possession started the scoring with ten minutes left in the second quarter.  Stepfan Taylor scored on a three yard pass from Kevin Hogan, and after a missed PAT, Stanford took a 6-0 lead.

 

With sophomore Blake Sims at quarterback, the first six possessions for the Tide included three punts, a missed field goal, a turnover on downs, and an interception.  But before the half, Sims hit Eddie Lacy with a 9-yard TD pass, and Alabama had the 7-6 lead at the break.

 

However, Stanford broke out quickly from the gate, scoring early in the third for a 13-7 lead on Hogan's 1-yard run.  While Alabama remained scoreless in the half, Hogan's 17 yard TD pass to frosh RB Kelsey Young made the score 20-7 early in the fourth.

 

The final two possessions by Alabama resulted in interceptions deep in Stanford territory, and after such a dominating Sugar Bowl victory over Florida State solidified the Tide being tourney favorite, Stanford hung on to a 20-7 shocker. 

 

Notre Dame and Stanford will see each other for a second time in Miami for the National Championship.

 

 

Updated tournament results:

FIRST ROUND:

In Atlanta:
7 Florida State 21
10 Wisconsin 14

In Chicago:
8 Northern Illinois 10
9 Louisville 25

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Fiesta:
1 Notre Dame 17
9 Louisville 10

Orange:
4 Oregon 35
5 Kansas State 17

Sugar:
2 Alabama 42
7 Florida State 17

Rose:
3 Florida 23
6 Stanford 34

Semi-Finals in Arlington, Texas: (January 12th)

1 Notre Dame 49
4 Oregon 27

2 Alabama 7
6 Stanford 20

BCS Championship in Miami: (January 26th)

1 Notre Dame
6 Stanford

Fiesta Bowl: Notre Dame gets a scare from the Cardinals; Irish survive Louisville 17-10

Throngs of ND apparel clad fans hit the desert, to see the start of their march to a national championship.  Certainly the Irish would be psyched, and not suffer a performance reminiscent of struggles against Pitt and other teams of that ilk.

Well, the good thing that Brian Kelly brought to the Notre Dame head coaching position was bringing teams to the college football tournament twice.  The bad news was those Cincinnati teams were 0-2 once they were in the tournament.  And for a lot of the Fiesta Bowl, it seemed Kelly going 0-3 was a real possibility.

Though kept out of the scoring column, Louisville and QB Teddy Bridgewater looked to be the better team throughout the first quarter.  The first half was scoreless until the final minute, but Louisville's John Wallace hit a field goal, and the Cardinals were ahead 3-0 at halftime.

The Irish showed their fighting instincts by taking the ball at the start of the second half and moving downfield.  However, Irish optimism was put on hold as their QB Everett Golson threw an interception near the Louisville goal line to stop the momentum.

Louisville did not take advantage, and the Irish scored with four minutes left in the third on a Golson 2 yard run, and Irish eyes, well, were relieved. 

In the fourth quarter, the Irish scored again on Theo Riddick 6 yard TD reception from Golson to provide ND a 14-3 lead.  However, Louisville made Notre Dame fans collectively squirm as Bridgewater hit DeVante Parker with a TD pass, and the score narrowed to 17-14. 

Needing some breathing room, Notre Dame's Kyle Brindza field goal provided a 17-10 lead, and Louisville threats never came within range, and the Irish held on.

This game was supposed to be the easy tune-up for a Semi-Finals match, but things will only get tougher as Notre Dame faces high flying Oregon at Cowboys Stadium, as the Irish were the only Final Four team not to win by more than a touchdown.


Updated tournament results:

FIRST ROUND:

In Atlanta:
7 Florida State 21
10 Wisconsin 14

In Chicago:
8 Northern Illinois 10
9 Louisville 25

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Fiesta:
1 Notre Dame 17
9 Louisville 10

Orange:
4 Oregon 35
5 Kansas State 17

Sugar:
2 Alabama 42
7 Florida State 17

Rose:
3 Florida 23
6 Stanford 34

Semi-Finals in Arlington, Texas: (January 12th)

Notre Dame versus Oregon

Alabama versus Stanford

BCS Championship in Miami:  (January 26th)

Sugar Bowl: Alabama continues Nawlins dominance, send Florida State packing, 42-17

Three of the past four Sugar Bowls, Alabama has shown little Southern hospitality by defeating Ohio State, West Virginia, and now Florida State by a sum total of 75 points.  Maybe the shellacking the Crimson Tide took at the hands of USC in the 2009 Rose Bowl taught Alabama to not leave any room for error during the weeks leading up to New Year's Day games.

Alabama's first drive was a steamroller of 82 yards, capped with an Eddie Lacy run for 20 yards for a touchdown for the early 7-0 lead.  Before Florida State could blink, Bama had the ball back, on their way to touchdown pass from AJ McCarron to Michael Williams from 3 yards out, and it was 14-0 Alabama. 

The Seminoles were game to try and hang around, and Dustin Hopkins 25 yard field goal made it 14-3, and that is how the first half ended. 

Like some kind of mythical scoring machine, Alabama continued driving, which early in the second quarter produced a T.J. Yeldon 1 yard TD run.  Florida State's Lonnie Pryor ran it in from 37 yards out, trying to match the  SEC champ, cutting the lead to 21-10.   That would not be bad way to enter the locker room, but the Crimson Tide does not roll over that easily, and in the last minute of the half, Eddie Lacy's 11 yard pass reception for a TD from McCarron allowed the Tide to roll to the break with a 28-10 lead.

That seemed to take the wind from the sails of the Seminoles, as they did not score in the third, whereas midway through the frame, Amari Cooper caught a 34 yard TD pass from McCarron, and the lead grew to 35-10. 

In the early minutes of the fourth, Cooper scored again on a 19 yard throw from McCarron, for the 42-10 cushion.  It was time to start thinking Semi-Finals, as Alabama was cruising.  Florida State added a late TD, but 42-17 would be the final.

Alabama moves on to try to repeat as national champion.  Next locale: Cowboys Stadium.  Next opponent: Pac-12 champion Stanford, in their third straight Final Four.