Tide revenge? After my tourney takes away two Bama titles, can they win from at-large spot?

In the four seasons I have blogged my tournament, two turned out just like real life, and two provided different champions.  And both of the latter were at the expense of Alabama losing in my simulated semi-finals.  So instead of three national championships over the past four seasons, the Tide only have one in my tournament.  But if they ever get one back, it could be this season as Alabama looks to be a three or four seed, or higher if things get really crazy this Saturday. 

One thing that will really help Bama is that the computer ratings that I use that are convertible to point spreads, Sagarin and Dunkel really like Alabama.  Alabama is ranked second in both, albeit a distant second to Florida State, but far above #11 Auburn.  Unless Auburn does really well versus Mizzou and their Bowl game, and Bama flops, Alabama would be a big favorite over Auburn if they rematched in either Indianapolis (Semi-Finals) or Pasadena (Championship). 

So we have twenty teams left for the ten slots in my tourney that will be revealed Sunday night.

There are the six conference championship winners:

• ACC: Florida State-Duke winner
• Big Ten: Ohio State-Michigan State winner
• SEC: Auburn-Missouri winner
• Pac-12: Stanford-Arizona State winner
• Big XII: Oklahoma State if they win; otherwise, winner of Baylor-Texas
• AAC: Central Florida if they win or ranked above Cincinnati; if UCF loses, Cincy wins and is above UCF in rankings

Plus, we assume Northern Illinois will be automatic qualifier if they win their conference champion game

So there will be three or four at-large berths:

• Alabama
• a losing Florida State
• a losing Ohio State
• SEC losing team
• South Carolina
• Baylor if they don't win Big XII
• Oregon
• Clemson
• a losing Oklahoma State
• LSU
• Oklahoma

Now really, even with four at-larges, most likely it will be down to:

• Alabama (sure thing)
• SEC loser
• South Carolina
• Baylor
• and maybe a losing Ohio State

and Oregon, Clemson, LSU, and Oklahoma with very little chance of getting in.  There is a possibility that there will be three at-large berths and all going to SEC teams: Alabama, South Carolina, and the SEC losing team, although one-loss Baylor's Ken Starr might sue.

What is the tourney committee rooting for?  Well, they would not mind Missouri versus Northern Illinois in Chicago, if they have to have Northern again with a regional advantage (NIU lost to Louisville last season in Chicago in the 8/9 game). 

Since my projections two weeks ago, Clemson, Oregon, and Fresno State are out, and Baylor is on the bubble. So as of today, I will project:

First Round:

In Jacksonville, Tampa, or Gainesville:

#7 SEC loser or South Carolina (at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (AAC) 

 

In Chicago:

#8 Baylor or SEC loser (at-large) versus #9 Northern Illinois (automatic non-AQ) 

 

Quarterfinals:

Orange Bowl:

#1 Florida State (ACC) versus 8/9 winner

Fiesta Bowl:

#4 Alabama (at-large) versus #5 Oklahoma State (Big XII)

Rose Bowl:

#2 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus 7/10 winner

 

Sugar Bowl:

#3 Auburn (SEC) versus #6 Stanford (Pac-12) 

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena

Stanford stunned and falls from projections, but could re-surface as dangerous opponent to top seeds

For a while, it looked like Auburn would be the team to fall out of the projections, but their "look what I found" miracle TD keeps the Tigers in the projections.  So that kooky play keeps Auburn burning up the standings, now up to #6.  But, their Bama game will determine whether their upward mobility continues.

It was the end of Saturday's upset of Stanford that shook up the projections.  Missouri sneaks back in, but do not count out the Cardinal!  They are the first team looking in, and if they end up in the First Round, a #1 or #2 would not want to meet them with Stanford trying to make a fourth straight Final Four.

And it seemed like Oregon was going to cruise into the tourney as an at-large, while Stanford would continue to do all of the heavy conference tourney heavy lifting.  Now, Oregon is back to the conference title game probably, and the increased risk of picking up loss #2.

Now, Clemson is in the position of trying to win out and avoid a conference championship, yet still make the tourney, maybe the top 6.


So, here are the projections!

First Round:

In Jacksonville:

#7 Clemson (at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (AAC) 

 

In Las Vegas:

#8 Missouri (at-large) versus #9 Fresno State (automatic non-AQ) 

 

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl:

#1 Alabama (SEC) versus Fresno State or Clemson/UCF winner

Fiesta Bowl:

#4 Baylor (Big XII) versus #5 Oregon (Pac-12)

Orange Bowl:

#2 Florida State (ACC) versus UCF or Missouri/Fresno State winner

 

Rose Bowl:

#3 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus #6 Auburn (at-large) 

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena

 

Finally some clarity, and a Bo Jackson like jump by Auburn into the projected brackets

With Stanford's win over Oregon, and Baylor's "how do you like me now" win over Oklahoma, we have now come to the point that the top of the tournament has solidified.  Sometimes this does not happen until the end of the regular season (like when Alabama and Florida were number 1 and 2 going into the SEC Championship), but the current top six teams are not projected to play one other until the post-season.  So if the top six win out, they will still be the top six seeds in the tourney.

So as of now...

1) Alabama looks to be in position for another easy Sugar Bowl win, so Tide fans probably are starting to buy up Final Four Indy tickets.  Three of the last four seasons, Alabama teams seeded in the top 2 have easily handled Ohio State, West Virginia, and, yes, last season's Florida State team.

2) Florida State solidified a top 2 seed, which is quite valuable, particularly in their home state Orange Bowl. 

3)  Oregon and Clemson are kind of in the nice position that Florida was last year.  A single loss but no need to play a conference championship game.  Like Florida, who handled FSU in their last game in 2012, Clemson and Oregon's at-large "elimination game" may well be against their respective in-state rivals.  But I bet Oregon is pretty much in line for an at-large, although Clemson's South Carolina match-up seems more hazardous.

4) Where did Auburn come from?  They jumped past Clemson and Missouri, to knock the latter Tigers out of the projections.  But Auburn still has 'Bama to deal with.

5) Fresno State is still in line to have geographic advantage in a First Round game, but with the National Championship game in Pasadena, that may help find a location for a First Round game.  See, there is a guideline that teams should not have home state advantage for more than one game.  So are the Bulldogs likely to make it to Pasadena.  Duh, no, but the guideline allows the game to be sent to Las Vegas, and the small venue won't look embarrassingly empty, plus might be a nice draw to bring fans in even from a distance.

So, here are the projections!

First Round:

In Gainesville:

#7 Auburn (at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (AAC) 

 

In Las Vegas:

#8 Clemson (at-large) versus #9 Fresno State (automatic non-AQ) 

 

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl:

#1 Alabama (SEC) versus Clemson/Fresno State

Fiesta Bowl:

#4 Stanford (Pac-12) versus #5 Baylor (Big XII)

Orange Bowl:

#2 Florida State (ACC) versus Auburn/Central Florida winner

 

Rose Bowl:

#3 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus #6 Oregon (at-large) 

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena

No drop-outs, but some scrambling in the next tourney projections

Here is my second projected tourney for 2013-2014:

 

First Round:

In Tampa:

#7 Miami (FL)(at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (American Athletic)  Playing FSU will move the Canes up or send them down and out

 

In Atlanta:

#8 Clemson (at-large) versus #9 Missouri (at-large) Tiger-Battle! Mizzou loses but doesn't drop out?    All of the previous week's SEC losses still left the door open for the at-large.  But, this still could be a slot for either Fresno State or Northern Illinois

 

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl:

#1 Alabama (SEC) versus Clemson, Miami, or Central Florida.  Assumes Alabama will play Missouri in regular season, otherwise Tide plays 8/9 winner.  

 

Rose Bowl:

#4 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus #5 Stanford (at-large)  Big Ten-Pac-12 tradition!  But four straight Roses for Cardinal

 

Fiesta Bowl:

#2 Oregon (ACC) versus Missouri, Miami, or Central Florida... Fiesta would be rooting for Mizzou to deliver a ton of fans

 

Orange Bowl:

#3 Florida State (Pac-12) versus #6 Baylor (Big XII)... FSU  drops a slot and Baylor moves up a bit, with big impact.  FSU would be happy to be #3 Orange, but still will fight to be thrilled with a #2.  The drop from #2 to #3 shows how important the regular season still is, with the difference of potential opponents of those two slots.  And Baylor's rise gets them out of a first round game, so a major improvement. 

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena

 

Very ACCeptable first projections for the college football tourney

The first BCS standings are out and that means to me, (a) I can put together my, "if the tournament was held today, what would it look like" projections, and (b) I have to find a way to create standings next season when there is no BCS!

 

So the shocker has to be the ACC, with the big “so far” attached.  Can an ACC team make the top four?  Can there be an at-large team from the ACC?  Or two?!

 

And it is early yet, so Fresno State or Northern Illinois may eventually break into this party!

 

Here are my first projected standings for 2013-2014:

 

First Round:

In Tampa:

#7 Miami (FL)(at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (conference formerly known as Big East)  Interesting Florida battle, and the winner could end up in the Orange Bowl

 

In Arlington TX:

#8 Baylor (Big XII) versus #9 Clemson (at-large) Clemson remembers travelling to play Wisconsin in Green Bay.  This looks like an opportunity for Clemson to have a tough road trip against a tourney newbie.  By the end of the year, this could be the spot for Fresno or NIU

 

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl:

#1 Alabama (SEC) versus Miami, Clemson, or Baylor  Not certain who Alabama would play because of two ACC/FSU opponents in the First Round, so basically Alabama gets the lowest ranked of the ACC teams or Baylor if both ACC schools go down.  Should Bama fans be buying up tickets for Indy’s Semi-Finals? Seems like the Final Four is likely for the Tide

 

Rose Bowl:

#4 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus #6 Stanford (at-large)  OSU gets Stanford to avoid an Oregon-Stanford rematch  Stanford would be looking at a fourth straight Rose Bowl win and fourth consecutive trip to Final Four, though Indy would love OSU to make it, especially with Notre Dame and Louisville not looking likely to contend for a Semi-Finals slot

 

Orange Bowl:

#2 Florida State (ACC) versus Central Florida, Baylor, or Miami FSU actually claims the ACC Orange Bowl slot?  ACC teams have seemed stuck in the First Round!  But can the team that was easily handled by Alabama last season in the Sugar Bowl be improved enough to contend for a title this year?

 

Fiesta Bowl:

#3 Oregon (Pac-12) versus #5 Missouri (SEC) Fiesta won’t mind so much the return of Oregon (a Fiesta fixture lately), because Missouri will “Show me” how to sell tickets.  Indianapolis might be silently rooting for Mizzou fans to hit town for the Semi-Finals too.  Frankly, the Alabama/Oregon/Stanford Final Four “occupation” might be getting a little old for some fans in general, and add in Florida State and Indianapolis may not have a local flavor for its Final Four

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena

No hoax! Notre Dame wins National Championship; defeats Stanford 28-24

When Notre Dame struggled past Louisville to open the tournament, whereas Alabama, Oregon, and Stanford cruised, generally the Irish were counted out of the National Championship chase. However, with Stanford courteously removing SEC schools Florida and Alabama, ND ended up eliminating the Pac-12's Oregon and Cardinal to win the another National Championship in their glorious gridiron history.

Notre Dame took the early lead and held it for the duration. With just under 10 minutes left in the opening quarter, ND QB Everett Golson hit TJ Jones on a 5 yard TD pass for the Irish 7-0 lead.

At about the same point of the second quarter, Irish RB Theo Riddick ran it in from six yards out, and ND held a two TD lead. Stanford was determined to keep it close. The Cardinal responded with a 1 yard Anthony Wilkerson TD run, to cut the lead to 14-7.

ND was on their game this night, and Cierre Wood ran it in from 7 yards out for the 21-7 lead. But Stanford quieted the Irish followers on the ensuing kickoff, as Kelsey Young return for 94 yard TD trimmed the lead to 21-14, which was the score as teams retreated for halftime.

The game remained tight in the third, with no scoring. Early in the fourth, Stanford kicker Jordan Williamson's 24 yard FG cut the ND lead to 21-17. With five minutes to play, Everett Golson ran in a touchdown from 15 yards out to provide a 28-17 cushion. Stanford tightened the game on a 19 yard Kevin Hogan to Jamal-Rashad Patterson TD pass, and the lead was 28-24. But Stanford never threatened, as Notre Dame recovered an onside kick, and Theo Riddick runs killed the clock. Notre Dame wins the National Championship!

Final 2012-2013 tournament results:

FIRST ROUND:

In Atlanta:
7 Florida State 21
10 Wisconsin 14

In Chicago:
8 Northern Illinois 10
9 Louisville 25

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Fiesta:
1 Notre Dame 17
9 Louisville 10

Orange:
4 Oregon 35
5 Kansas State 17

Sugar:
2 Alabama 42
7 Florida State 17

Rose:
3 Florida 23
6 Stanford 34

Semi-Finals in Arlington, Texas: (January 12th)

1 Notre Dame 49
4 Oregon 27

2 Alabama 7
6 Stanford 20

BCS Championship in Miami: (January 26th)

1 Notre Dame 28
6 Stanford 24

Inquisition not necessary: Manti Te'o mistakes are part of life, just magnified by lens of celebrity

There was a time that it seemed like great high school basketball centers came in groups of three.  One year in the late 70’s, the trio was Ralph Sampson, Sam Bowie, and St. Louis’ Steve Stipanovich.  Stipanovich eventually became the number two pick in the 1983 NBA Draft behind Sampson after attending the University of Missouri.

In December of 1980, about a month after Stipanovich turned twenty, he made the news for something besides hoops.  Stipanovich was shot in the shoulder and he told police that a masked intruder, wearing cowboy boots and a flannel shirt, broke into his apartment on Sunrise Drive in Columbia, Missouri, and shot him while screaming obscenities about basketball players.

The next day Stipanovich recanted the story and admitted that he shot himself by accident.

Stipanovich was the subsequent victim of visiting arena taunts, my recollection is that some student sections waved toy guns.  Imagine dealing with the security scrutiny for a bunch of students bearing toy arms in 2013 arena pre-game lines.  Stipo did something dumb, lied about, but doesn’t appear to have become a national pariah.  In fact, Stipanovich and his wife Terri are involved with the Mercy Ministries program in the St. Louis area, providing temporary home for young women recovering from abuse.  Doesn't sound like someone John Walsh is hunting down.

So, my feeling about Manti Te'o is that, no matter what the real story is, he did stupid things and made real mistakes, just like most people in their college years.  If you yourself never did anything stupid during those years, I bet you know people who did.  My only feeling about what I read in scribes’ columns, that "Manti Te'o has to do more, has to come clean, blah, blah."  The thing is, no, he doesn’t, and secondly, any resources spent on journalistic “getting to the bottom of it” will be such a waste of time.  When investigative reporting is more of an endangered species than the Tasmanian Wolf, that this story will be well researched just ain’t right.  Maybe finding out why Ray Lewis ditched his white suit, so we can determine if he is America’s most beloved murderer, and whether any time he rides in a limo, he hears The Tell-Tale Heart from under the floorboards.  That would be a better 30 for 30.

Manti Te'o is going through what a lot of people go through during college.  They make mistakes, either big or small, they tell tales to reduce embarrassment, and then feel the joy of their peers’ unending ridicule.  And whether you are a kid featured on CNNSI or the generic, faceless dorm floor geek of the week, most will learn some life lessons, including that sometimes self-effacement is the greater tool in adulthood. 

As far as draft stock and his bottom line, if Manti Te'o is a good linebacker, he will get work.  If not, he won’t.  Ray Lewis is beloved.  If he stunk on the field, he would not be.
 

As he has transformed from hero to jerk, I think of Michael Jordan’s dreams of going back to a time he could ride bikes to the mall and just hang out.  Unlike American Idolists or Honey Boo Boo’s, young athletes are just playing to make the team, and if they keep making it, they become celebrities.  How many people are telling this season’s high school hoops phenom Jabari Parker, “Maybe you should consider giving up basketball.  Your life will be spent signing autographs and never being able to spend carefree hours at the mall.”  Let’s ask him in 20 years if someone should have.