Rose Bowl: Spartan defense limits Stanford; Michigan State wins 24-20

Since the start of the season, numerous teams looked to represent the heartland in Indianapolis for the tournament Semi-Finals.  Teams like Notre Dame, Louisville, and Ohio State were considered the likely candidates, but it was Michigan State to be the first team to qualify for Football's Final Four, with a late season run to the fourth seed.

Unlike most 4/5 games, that look great on paper but are not close in actuality, Michigan State's comeback after two ten point deficits to win 24-20 was a solid fourth quarter battle, until Stanford turned the ball over on downs with about two-minutes to go.

Perhaps to be criticized for conservativeness, Stanford, in their fourth straight tournament, could not win a fourth straight Rose Bowl and a fourth straight trip to the Final Four.  The Cardinal's quick start looked like they were on their way to Andrew Luck country at Lucas Oil Stadium, but MSU's eventual stopping of the run and lack of reliable downfield passing make the Spartans look like a tournament threat.

Ahead of the Spartans will be the winner of the Orange Bowl, possibly Florida State, but no matter what, no one will be looking past the Michigan State team as they look to have a second big win in Indy this season.

-------------- 

Updated tournament results:

FIRST ROUND:

In Cleveland:
7 Ohio State
9 South Carolina 

In Tampa:
8 Missouri 
10 Central Florida 

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State
8 Missouri/Central Florida winner

Rose: 
4 Michigan State 24
5 Stanford 20

Sugar:
2 Auburn
7 Ohio State/South Carolina winner

Fiesta: 
3 Alabama
6 Baylor


Semi-finals in Indianapolis:
Orange Bowl winner versus Michigan State
Sugar Bowl winner versus Fiesta Bowl winner

BCS Championship in Pasadena

It's time! Stewart Mandel of CNNSI predicts the results of my tournament

(actually, Stewart makes picks for the real bowl games, and I annually transform them into predictions for my playoffs; i.e., if the games turn out like he says, this is how my tournament will play out, for the First Round and BCS Bowl Quarterfinals, at least)

As part of Stewart Mandel's predictions of all of the bowl games this season, here are his predictions for the tournament's first round and quarterfinals. Over the last three seasons, Stewey (can I call ya Stewey?) has been 15-3 in these games. 


FIRST ROUND:

In Cleveland:
7 Ohio State 28
9 South Carolina 23

In Tampa:
8 Missouri 38
10 Central Florida 24


BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State 31
8 Missouri 15

Rose: 
4 Michigan State 14
5 Stanford 17

Sugar:
2 Auburn 20
7 Ohio State 16

Fiesta: 
3 Alabama 28
6 Baylor 26


Semi-finals in Indianapolis:
Florida State versus Stanford
Auburn versus Alabama

BCS Championship in Pasadena

Quick, turn on the 2013 College Football Tournament Selection Show!

And now live from the ESPN studios, it's the BCS College Football Tournament Selection Show presented by Nancy's Pizza, with Rece Davis, Lou Holtz, and Mark May.

RECE: Wow.  All I can say is WOW.  Was that some 48 hours of college football or what?  We started out assuming Northern Illinois would be back for a return trip to the tournament, Oklahoma State would be a high seed, Ohio State in the top two, but twists and turns galore have us at selection Sunday, with plenty of questions.  Coach, what do  you think?

LOU: You're right Rece, WOW.  Ohio State goes from top two seed in the Rose Bowl to wondering about an at-large bid.  Auburn's late season push gets them to the top two seed we assume.  That is why I love college football. 

MARK: I think this is going to be a very strong field.  We assume the tenth seed will be a one loss Central Florida team that lost to South Carolina by three.  This will be a pretty strong group, Florida State will be top seed, but I see lots of teams that could win it all.  And will we see Iron Bowl II at some point?

LOU: Gosh Mark, you sound as giddy as me!

RECE:  So guys, here is what we know; six teams are in.  Florida State, the likely top seed, Auburn, the likely second seed, Michigan State, Stanford, Baylor, and as Mark said, Central Florida.  So first big question, who are the other four?  Coach, who is going to get those last spots in the tournament?

LOU: Well, Alabama for sure.  And certainly Ohio State has to be there, with one loss.  I think this is the year South Carolina finally makes it in, along with Clemson.  Those are my four at-large teams. 

MARK:  Coach, I agree with you on your old school, South Carolina, but I think Missouri will make it four SEC teams in the tournament.   

LOU: Well Mark, four SEC teams is just too many.  Oklahoma, Oregon, Clemson; they all deserve it more than a fourth SEC team.  That is just what I think.  That is that way it ought to be.

RECE:  Coach, I think the at-large to watch is possibly Oklahoma, if any team if going to stop a four team SEC party.  But right now, it looks likely that the Oregon Ducks streak of four straight tournaments, the longest current streak, will end here.  But Stanford will carry the torch with their fourth straight tournament, and looking for a fourth straight Final Four appearance.  So that begs the next question.  Which of these teams will make the top six, and avoid having to play in the First Round?

MARK: I think Baylor and Ohio State are the two teams on the edge.  So Florida State, Auburn, Alabama, Michigan State, and Stanford will be in the top six, and Baylor will edge out Ohio State.  The Buckeyes go from top two seed and a Rose Bowl to playing in a First Round game, probably against South Carolina. 

LOU: Oh Mark, Ohio State has one loss to a great Michigan State team.  I think they will make the top six.  Two loss Stanford, well, you have to play in the First Round.  No fourth straight Rose Bowl for you, I am sorry to say.

RECE: Well, time for the guesswork to end.  Weeks of games, big plays of historic proportions, and it all boils down to the next few minutes, when we find out which ten teams will make this year’s college football tournament.  And now, it is time to learn the which ten teams made the 2013-2014 BCS college football tournament, so we go to Brent Musburger in Pasadena. Brent...

BRENT:  You are looking...LIVE at the Rose Bowl, and the site of the championship game, Pasadena, California.  Hi there everybody, ten teams will play to win here, and take home the BCS championship trophy. And now, it is time for the Sabra Classic Hummus and Pretzels Snack bracket presentation. Let's go to tournament Commissioner Nelson, who will reveal this year's tournament. Commissioner..."

COMMISIONER: Thank you Brent. It is my pleasure to announce the teams that will be playing in the 2013-2014 BCS College Football Tournament.

In the First Round, in Cleveland, the seventh seed and at-large representative of the Big Ten Conference, the Buckeyes of the Ohio State University, will take on the ninth seed, and at-large team from the Southeastern Conference, the University of South Carolina Gamecocks.

The other First Round game will be played in Tampa, where the eighth seed, the Tigers of the University of Missouri, an SEC at-large, will play the tenth seeded University of Central Florida Knights, champions of the AAC.

So let's move onto the BCS Bowl quarterfinals. The winner of the Missouri/Central Florida match-up will move on to the Orange Bowl, to play the top seed, the Florida State University Seminoles, champion of the Atlantic Coast Conference. 

The winner of the Orange Bowl, will take on the winner of the Rose Bowl, which will feature the fourth seed, champion of the Big Ten conference, the Spartans of Michigan State University, and champions of the Pac-12 Conference, the fifth seeded Stanford University Cardinal. 

The winner of the Ohio State/South Carolina game will move on to the Sugar Bowl, to play the number two seed, and champion of the Southeastern Conference, the Tigers of Auburn University.

The Sugar Bowl winner will take on the winner of the remaining quarterfinal game, the Fiesta Bowl, which will feature the third seed, at-large from the Southeast Conference, the University of Alabama Crimson Tide, who will play the sixth seed, and champion of the Big XII conference, the Bears of Baylor University.

The winners of the BCS quarterfinals will meet in Indianapolis for Football's Final Four, and the winner of the semi-finals will play for the BCS championship, right here, in Pasadena.

BRENT: Thank you Commissioner, it shapes up to be yet another exciting tournament. Two questions.  What was the last that was closest to make the field, and secondly, there is a provision that no team can have more than one game with home state advantage, yet Stanford gets to play in the Rose Bowl and maybe come back for the championship game.  How did that occur?  

COMMISH:  Oregon was the tenth team in our standings, but they were far behind South Carolina for the last at-large slot.  The Big Ten and Michigan State waved the provision that allowed Stanford to play in the Rose Bowl to allow a match-up of the two conferences aligned with the Rose Bowl.

BRENT:  Thank you Commissioner, and now back to the studio.

(microphones pick up unsuspecting continuing conversation)

BRENT: Good job Commissioner. You did fine.

COMMISH:  I think my face turned red when you asked about Stanford, I could feel it in my face I think.

BRENT:  Oh no, I thought you were merely blushing thinking about that girl dating the Alabama quarterback.  I thought I heard you mention her name.

COMMISH:  Oh no, I hope not, let's watch the tape. 

(back to the studio)

RECE: So, there it is.  Four SEC teams in.  Oklahoma, Oregon, and Clemson did not make the cut.  And Ohio State, looking at a Rose Bowl game, drops to a First Round game.  Now, it will be in Cleveland, but if they win, they have to go to the Sugar Bowl to face Auburn.  Coach, your thoughts? 

LOU: Yes, far too big a drop for Ohio State, in my opinion.  Plus, South Carolina, finally makes the tournament after many years, and they have to go to Cleveland in December.  That will be cruel and unusual punishment for the Gamecocks and their fans.   

MARK: I think it will be a great tournament.  I only see Missouri as a team from the First Round that could possibly challenge the top two seeds, so I think Florida State and Auburn have a nice path to Indianapolis.  Alabama will be a big favorite over Baylor, but Baylor will come to play, remembering how third seed Florida underperformed last season, and the long standing third seed curse when they play a sixth seed.  And I think Stanford has a pretty good shot at their fourth straight Final Four, although the folks in Indianapolis will be rooting for a little Michigan State caravan to drive down from East Lansing.  However, if Indy gets Auburn-Alabama Iron Bowl II, it will be one hot ticket no matter how cold Indiana is.

RECE:  Let’s look at this graphic. Here are each of the ten teams in number of appearances over the eight years of the ten team era.  Ohio State and Alabama now are tied as leaders nationally during that period with five appearances in the eight year span, and Stanford has current longest string at four.  Baylor and Central Florida are first timers overall, and it has been a while for Michigan State and South Carolina:

Ohio State          5              2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2013

Alabama             5              2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013

Stanford             4              2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

Auburn               2              2010, 2013

Missouri             2              2007, 2013

Florida State      2              2012, 2013

Michigan State  1               2013

Baylor                1               2013

South Carolina   1              2013

Central Florida   1              2013

RECE: "So let's review the tournament..."

First Round:

Cleveland: #7 Ohio State (at-large) versus #9 South Carolina (at-large)
 
Tampa: #8 Missouri (at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (AAC Champ)

 

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Florida State (ACC) versus Missouri/Central Florida winner

Rose: #4 Michigan State (Big Ten Champ) versus #5 Stanford (Pac-12 Champ)

Sugar: #2 Auburn (SEC Champ) versus Ohio State/South Carolina winner

Fiesta: #3 Alabama (at-large) versus #6 Baylor (Big XII Champ)

Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in Indianapolis

National Championship in Pasadena

RECE: It should be a great great tournament. For the Hall of Famer, Lou Holtz, and Mark May, good night from the ESPN studios

And then there were sixteen...At-large drama warning in effect!

Now, we wait!  Six teams in, two likely at-larges,

(notes from Friday and Saturday)
Northern Illinois' loss to Bowling Green opens up another at-large spot.  I may have been too quick to consider Oregon a long shot.  Now the four at-larges seem to be down to Alabama, SEC loser, South Carolina, Baylor, plus Oregon, a losing Ohio State, (or FSU, sorry, had to add them for completeness) in the mix. 

Oklahoma's comeback denies Ok State the automatic bid.  Both are now longshots for at-large slots. What a day here in the luxurious paneled dark wood conference room in tourney headquarters!

Baylor is not only playing for the Big XII automatic bid, but they would be on the bubble for being a top six seed.  Otherwise, they may end up playing Central Florida in the 7/10 game and then facing #2 if they win.

NIU loss opening an at-large, Baylor may go from at-large pool to automatic.  Oregon and other at-large hopefuls are seeing some opportunity to make the tourney.

Twenty teams started the weekend alive for my tourney, but now..

IN:

• Central Florida (AAC Champ; presumed 10th seed)
• Baylor (Big XII Champ)
• Auburn (SEC Champ)
• Florida State (ACC Champ)
• Stanford (Pac-12 champ)
• Michigan State (Big Ten champ)

PRETTY MUCH IN:

• Alabama (at-large)
• Ohio State (at-large)

THEY HAVE A SOLID SHOT AT LARGE:

• Missouri
• Oklahoma State (demoted to at-large longshot)
• South Carolina
• Arizona State (lost to Stanford)
• Northern Illinois (lost to Bowling Green)
• Texas (lost to Baylor)
• Duke (lost to Florida State)
• Cincinnati (lost to Louisville)

LONG SHOTS:

• Oregon (NIU loss gives upgrade from Long Shots)
• Clemson
• LSU
• Oklahoma

-----------------------------
From the white board at tourney headquarters:

1. Florida State
2. Auburn
3. Alabama
4. Stanford
5. Michigan State
6. ?
7. Baylor
8. ?
9. ?
10. Central Florida

At-Large options

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. South Carolina
4. Missouri
5. Oregon
6. Clemson
7. LSU
8. Oklahoma
9. Oklahoma State

Tide revenge? After my tourney takes away two Bama titles, can they win from at-large spot?

In the four seasons I have blogged my tournament, two turned out just like real life, and two provided different champions.  And both of the latter were at the expense of Alabama losing in my simulated semi-finals.  So instead of three national championships over the past four seasons, the Tide only have one in my tournament.  But if they ever get one back, it could be this season as Alabama looks to be a three or four seed, or higher if things get really crazy this Saturday. 

One thing that will really help Bama is that the computer ratings that I use that are convertible to point spreads, Sagarin and Dunkel really like Alabama.  Alabama is ranked second in both, albeit a distant second to Florida State, but far above #11 Auburn.  Unless Auburn does really well versus Mizzou and their Bowl game, and Bama flops, Alabama would be a big favorite over Auburn if they rematched in either Indianapolis (Semi-Finals) or Pasadena (Championship). 

So we have twenty teams left for the ten slots in my tourney that will be revealed Sunday night.

There are the six conference championship winners:

• ACC: Florida State-Duke winner
• Big Ten: Ohio State-Michigan State winner
• SEC: Auburn-Missouri winner
• Pac-12: Stanford-Arizona State winner
• Big XII: Oklahoma State if they win; otherwise, winner of Baylor-Texas
• AAC: Central Florida if they win or ranked above Cincinnati; if UCF loses, Cincy wins and is above UCF in rankings

Plus, we assume Northern Illinois will be automatic qualifier if they win their conference champion game

So there will be three or four at-large berths:

• Alabama
• a losing Florida State
• a losing Ohio State
• SEC losing team
• South Carolina
• Baylor if they don't win Big XII
• Oregon
• Clemson
• a losing Oklahoma State
• LSU
• Oklahoma

Now really, even with four at-larges, most likely it will be down to:

• Alabama (sure thing)
• SEC loser
• South Carolina
• Baylor
• and maybe a losing Ohio State

and Oregon, Clemson, LSU, and Oklahoma with very little chance of getting in.  There is a possibility that there will be three at-large berths and all going to SEC teams: Alabama, South Carolina, and the SEC losing team, although one-loss Baylor's Ken Starr might sue.

What is the tourney committee rooting for?  Well, they would not mind Missouri versus Northern Illinois in Chicago, if they have to have Northern again with a regional advantage (NIU lost to Louisville last season in Chicago in the 8/9 game). 

Since my projections two weeks ago, Clemson, Oregon, and Fresno State are out, and Baylor is on the bubble. So as of today, I will project:

First Round:

In Jacksonville, Tampa, or Gainesville:

#7 SEC loser or South Carolina (at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (AAC) 

 

In Chicago:

#8 Baylor or SEC loser (at-large) versus #9 Northern Illinois (automatic non-AQ) 

 

Quarterfinals:

Orange Bowl:

#1 Florida State (ACC) versus 8/9 winner

Fiesta Bowl:

#4 Alabama (at-large) versus #5 Oklahoma State (Big XII)

Rose Bowl:

#2 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus 7/10 winner

 

Sugar Bowl:

#3 Auburn (SEC) versus #6 Stanford (Pac-12) 

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena

Stanford stunned and falls from projections, but could re-surface as dangerous opponent to top seeds

For a while, it looked like Auburn would be the team to fall out of the projections, but their "look what I found" miracle TD keeps the Tigers in the projections.  So that kooky play keeps Auburn burning up the standings, now up to #6.  But, their Bama game will determine whether their upward mobility continues.

It was the end of Saturday's upset of Stanford that shook up the projections.  Missouri sneaks back in, but do not count out the Cardinal!  They are the first team looking in, and if they end up in the First Round, a #1 or #2 would not want to meet them with Stanford trying to make a fourth straight Final Four.

And it seemed like Oregon was going to cruise into the tourney as an at-large, while Stanford would continue to do all of the heavy conference tourney heavy lifting.  Now, Oregon is back to the conference title game probably, and the increased risk of picking up loss #2.

Now, Clemson is in the position of trying to win out and avoid a conference championship, yet still make the tourney, maybe the top 6.


So, here are the projections!

First Round:

In Jacksonville:

#7 Clemson (at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (AAC) 

 

In Las Vegas:

#8 Missouri (at-large) versus #9 Fresno State (automatic non-AQ) 

 

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl:

#1 Alabama (SEC) versus Fresno State or Clemson/UCF winner

Fiesta Bowl:

#4 Baylor (Big XII) versus #5 Oregon (Pac-12)

Orange Bowl:

#2 Florida State (ACC) versus UCF or Missouri/Fresno State winner

 

Rose Bowl:

#3 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus #6 Auburn (at-large) 

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena

 

Finally some clarity, and a Bo Jackson like jump by Auburn into the projected brackets

With Stanford's win over Oregon, and Baylor's "how do you like me now" win over Oklahoma, we have now come to the point that the top of the tournament has solidified.  Sometimes this does not happen until the end of the regular season (like when Alabama and Florida were number 1 and 2 going into the SEC Championship), but the current top six teams are not projected to play one other until the post-season.  So if the top six win out, they will still be the top six seeds in the tourney.

So as of now...

1) Alabama looks to be in position for another easy Sugar Bowl win, so Tide fans probably are starting to buy up Final Four Indy tickets.  Three of the last four seasons, Alabama teams seeded in the top 2 have easily handled Ohio State, West Virginia, and, yes, last season's Florida State team.

2) Florida State solidified a top 2 seed, which is quite valuable, particularly in their home state Orange Bowl. 

3)  Oregon and Clemson are kind of in the nice position that Florida was last year.  A single loss but no need to play a conference championship game.  Like Florida, who handled FSU in their last game in 2012, Clemson and Oregon's at-large "elimination game" may well be against their respective in-state rivals.  But I bet Oregon is pretty much in line for an at-large, although Clemson's South Carolina match-up seems more hazardous.

4) Where did Auburn come from?  They jumped past Clemson and Missouri, to knock the latter Tigers out of the projections.  But Auburn still has 'Bama to deal with.

5) Fresno State is still in line to have geographic advantage in a First Round game, but with the National Championship game in Pasadena, that may help find a location for a First Round game.  See, there is a guideline that teams should not have home state advantage for more than one game.  So are the Bulldogs likely to make it to Pasadena.  Duh, no, but the guideline allows the game to be sent to Las Vegas, and the small venue won't look embarrassingly empty, plus might be a nice draw to bring fans in even from a distance.

So, here are the projections!

First Round:

In Gainesville:

#7 Auburn (at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (AAC) 

 

In Las Vegas:

#8 Clemson (at-large) versus #9 Fresno State (automatic non-AQ) 

 

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl:

#1 Alabama (SEC) versus Clemson/Fresno State

Fiesta Bowl:

#4 Stanford (Pac-12) versus #5 Baylor (Big XII)

Orange Bowl:

#2 Florida State (ACC) versus Auburn/Central Florida winner

 

Rose Bowl:

#3 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus #6 Oregon (at-large) 

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena