In January, 13 Iowa football players were hospitalized with serious conditions including kidney dysfunction. Apparently, this was potentially tied to multiple factors, but the recurring theme is one of hyper-strenuous post-season workouts.
So when the argument is made that a tournament would lengthen the season, taking away precious time from studies, think about the Iowa players. They weren't exactly given a vacation once the final whistle was blown in their bowl game. And if their workouts are making the papers, there has to be the same type, perhaps not at the same level, going on with players all over the country. So even though the stands are empty, and purists can assume the books are open and players are filling library carrels, there is more going on, so that four teams playing into January in a tournament would be a fraction of the interruption than some would claim.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
It's Never Ever Too Early to Think About Next Year's Tourney!! And No Lockouts Here!
Oklahoma appears to be the favorite to say "Meet Me in Saint Louis" on the way to the 2011-2012 tournament championship game in New Orleans. Both ESPN and CNNSI project Oklahoma as the early number one for next seasons football rankings. Based on these two sources, it seems like the projections for next year's tournament place teams into three groups:
THE BIG FOUR: Oklahoma, Oregon, LSU, and Alabama are in the top four of both projections
BEST IN THEIR CONFERENCES: Ohio State, Florida State, and West Virginia are best of their respective bunches according to both sets of rankings.
LEADERS OF THE INITIAL SCRAMBLE FOR THE OTHER THREE SLOTS: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Stanford, Arkansas, Texas Christian, and Boise State made the tourney in one of the two projections. Let the battling begin!
With the championship game in New Orleans, LSU will feel some impact, in that, due to the "only one game with home state advantage" rule, they cannot play in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal, even if they win the SEC, but if they can make it to the finals, they get to taste some in-state home cooking. Here are the two tournament projections:
Scenario I: Based on ESPN.com 2011 Projections
FIRST ROUND:
In Jacksonville, FL:
7 Florida State (ACC Champ)
10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)
In Cincinnati, OH:
8 Arkansas (at-large)
9 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta:
1 Oklahoma (Big XII Champ)
Arkansas/Ohio State winner
Orange:
4 LSU (at-large)
5 Boise State (non-BCS automatic)
Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Florida State/West Virginia winner
Rose:
3 Oregon (Pac Ten champ)
6 Oklahoma State (at-large)
Semi-finals in St Louis:
BCS Championship in New Orleans:
---------------------------
Scenario II: Based on CNNSI.com 2011 Projections
FIRST ROUND:
In Pittsburgh, PA:
7 Texas A&M (at large)
10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)
In Houston, TX:
8 Texas Christian (non-BCS automatic)
9 Florida State (ACC Champ)
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta:
1 Oklahoma (Big XII Champ)
Texas Christian/Florida State winner
Sugar:
4 Alabama (at-large)
5 Stanford (at-large)
Rose:
2 Oregon (Pac Ten champ)
Texas A&M/West Virginia winner
Orange:
3 LSU (SEC champ)
6 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
Semi-finals in St Louis:
BCS Championship in New Orleans:
THE BIG FOUR: Oklahoma, Oregon, LSU, and Alabama are in the top four of both projections
BEST IN THEIR CONFERENCES: Ohio State, Florida State, and West Virginia are best of their respective bunches according to both sets of rankings.
LEADERS OF THE INITIAL SCRAMBLE FOR THE OTHER THREE SLOTS: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Stanford, Arkansas, Texas Christian, and Boise State made the tourney in one of the two projections. Let the battling begin!
With the championship game in New Orleans, LSU will feel some impact, in that, due to the "only one game with home state advantage" rule, they cannot play in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal, even if they win the SEC, but if they can make it to the finals, they get to taste some in-state home cooking. Here are the two tournament projections:
Scenario I: Based on ESPN.com 2011 Projections
FIRST ROUND:
In Jacksonville, FL:
7 Florida State (ACC Champ)
10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)
In Cincinnati, OH:
8 Arkansas (at-large)
9 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta:
1 Oklahoma (Big XII Champ)
Arkansas/Ohio State winner
Orange:
4 LSU (at-large)
5 Boise State (non-BCS automatic)
Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Florida State/West Virginia winner
Rose:
3 Oregon (Pac Ten champ)
6 Oklahoma State (at-large)
Semi-finals in St Louis:
BCS Championship in New Orleans:
---------------------------
Scenario II: Based on CNNSI.com 2011 Projections
FIRST ROUND:
In Pittsburgh, PA:
7 Texas A&M (at large)
10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)
In Houston, TX:
8 Texas Christian (non-BCS automatic)
9 Florida State (ACC Champ)
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta:
1 Oklahoma (Big XII Champ)
Texas Christian/Florida State winner
Sugar:
4 Alabama (at-large)
5 Stanford (at-large)
Rose:
2 Oregon (Pac Ten champ)
Texas A&M/West Virginia winner
Orange:
3 LSU (SEC champ)
6 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
Semi-finals in St Louis:
BCS Championship in New Orleans:
Sunday, January 30, 2011
War Eagle! Auburn Tops Oregon 30-19 Earning Tourney National Championship
After showing some rust in the quarterfinal BCS bowls against teams that had a First Round victory under their belts, both top seed Auburn and second seed Oregon showed their stuff in the Semi-Finals, with easy wins.
In the championship game, perhaps some of the jitters returned as Auburn's first drive moved down the field until an interception, and Oregon reciprocated with a drive into Tiger territory before losing a fumble. Auburn was three and out though, and the Ducks put up the first points of the game, on a Rob Beard field goal to take the 3-0 lead, which is how the first quarter ended.
The second quarter began during an Auburn march down the field, but the Tigers settled with a 21 yard Wes Byrum field goal. Both teams traded two more field goals, and the game was tied at 6-6 in the final minutes of the first half. The game's tide seemed to turn to Auburn on a late first half blocked punt that the Tigers recovered on the Oregon 10 yard line. With 34 seconds left in the half, Cam Newton ran it in from the one, and Auburn grabbed their first lead as the half ended, 13-6.
Auburn continued to pile yardage in the third quarter but two missed field goals and once turning the ball over on downs kept them scoreless in the frame. However, Oregon made the most of their opportunities, evening the score at 13-13 on a Darron Thomas 2 yard touchdown run midway through the third. Nearing the end of the third, Oregon's Kenjon Barner ran it in from the 1 yard line to give the lead back to Oregon. A failed two-point attempt left Oregon with a 19-13 lead going into the last quarter.
The Tigers seemed ready for another fourth quarter scoring spectacular. Auburn stormed down the field, and Onterio McCalebb scored on a 1 yard run, giving them a 20-19 lead. Oregon seemed a bit shaken and gained -1 yards on a three and out drive. Auburn took the ball on a four minute drive, ending with a Byrum 20 yard field goal, and Tigers had a 23-19 led midway through the fourth quarter.
Oregon and Auburn traded punts, giving the Ducks the ball with three minutes to go. Oregon moved down the field, and were at the Auburn 25 with almost two minutes to go. In a play reminiscent of the Peyton Manning driving against the Saints in the last Super Bowl, Derron Thomas' next pass was picked off a returned 80 yards for a Auburn touchdown, and a solid 30-19 lead with 2:09 left. Oregon moved down the field again, hoping for their own theatrics, but an interception gave Auburn the ball back on their own 5 yard line with seconds left to play. A single kneel down gave the Auburn Tigers the national championship with a 30-19 victory.
In the championship game, perhaps some of the jitters returned as Auburn's first drive moved down the field until an interception, and Oregon reciprocated with a drive into Tiger territory before losing a fumble. Auburn was three and out though, and the Ducks put up the first points of the game, on a Rob Beard field goal to take the 3-0 lead, which is how the first quarter ended.
The second quarter began during an Auburn march down the field, but the Tigers settled with a 21 yard Wes Byrum field goal. Both teams traded two more field goals, and the game was tied at 6-6 in the final minutes of the first half. The game's tide seemed to turn to Auburn on a late first half blocked punt that the Tigers recovered on the Oregon 10 yard line. With 34 seconds left in the half, Cam Newton ran it in from the one, and Auburn grabbed their first lead as the half ended, 13-6.
Auburn continued to pile yardage in the third quarter but two missed field goals and once turning the ball over on downs kept them scoreless in the frame. However, Oregon made the most of their opportunities, evening the score at 13-13 on a Darron Thomas 2 yard touchdown run midway through the third. Nearing the end of the third, Oregon's Kenjon Barner ran it in from the 1 yard line to give the lead back to Oregon. A failed two-point attempt left Oregon with a 19-13 lead going into the last quarter.
The Tigers seemed ready for another fourth quarter scoring spectacular. Auburn stormed down the field, and Onterio McCalebb scored on a 1 yard run, giving them a 20-19 lead. Oregon seemed a bit shaken and gained -1 yards on a three and out drive. Auburn took the ball on a four minute drive, ending with a Byrum 20 yard field goal, and Tigers had a 23-19 led midway through the fourth quarter.
Oregon and Auburn traded punts, giving the Ducks the ball with three minutes to go. Oregon moved down the field, and were at the Auburn 25 with almost two minutes to go. In a play reminiscent of the Peyton Manning driving against the Saints in the last Super Bowl, Derron Thomas' next pass was picked off a returned 80 yards for a Auburn touchdown, and a solid 30-19 lead with 2:09 left. Oregon moved down the field again, hoping for their own theatrics, but an interception gave Auburn the ball back on their own 5 yard line with seconds left to play. A single kneel down gave the Auburn Tigers the national championship with a 30-19 victory.
Saturday, January 15, 2011
St. Pete Semi-Finals: The Unbeatens Cruise to the Championship, Auburn Handles Stanford, Oregon Defeats Ohio State
This may be the only time that St. Petersburg's Tropicana Field hosts the college football Semi-Finals. The small stadium capacity, the "funky" configuration of an indoor baseball stadium for football, and its proximity to BCS Bowl quarterfinal site Miami are all strikes against it. But for this day, with temps outside the dome in the upper sixties, football fans will try to squeeze out as much enjoyment as they can visiting Tropicana Field. Next year another Saint, the less warm Louis of Missouri, hosts the Semi-Finals. But for 2011, the doubleheader begins in Florida, with an SEC champ taking on a Pac Ten at-large team.
GAME 1: #1 Auburn 39, #4 Stanford 17
Many analysts liked Stanford as a team to watch in this tournament. With an impressive 37-20 Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin, the Cardinal seemed like a team playing with house money, and with the possibility of losing their beloved coach and quarterback a real motivator to take advantage of this opportunity. Last season, the "stepping down" of Urban Meyer seemed to propel the fifth seeded Florida Gators to a title, why not a Stanford/Harbaugh version in 2010-2011?
The game seemed to indicate this direction in the early going. Auburn took the kickoff, and then drove 49 yards in seven plays, but the Cardinal faithful erupted as the Tigers turned the ball over on downs on the Stanford 31. Stanford took the ball on a 6:33, 13 play, 69 drive, capped by an Andrew Luck 11 yard touchdown pass, and the Cardinal grabbed the 7-0 lead. Palo Alto physicists probably wish they could have frozen that moment in time, because the rest of the day belonged to the Tigers.
Auburn took their next possession on a 5 play, 68 yard, barely over two minute drive, capped by a 7-yard Cam Newton TD run. A missed PAT kept the Cardinal with the lead, but their next drive was a dismal 3 play, -13 yard possession, and the ball was punted right back to to Auburn, who proceeded to drive 69 yards on 5 plays in just under a minute and a half. Newton's 28 yard touchdown run capped the drive and gave Auburn their first lead 13-7 less than a minute into the second quarter. The two teams traded 45 yard field goals in the second quarter, before Auburn put together another TD drive, this time Newton passed it in from 22 yards. The half ended with a missed Cardinal field goal attempt, so the Tigers entered the locker room up 22-10 at the half.
The Tigers continued to drive unabated in the second half compiling a 39-10 lead before a late Stanford touchdown pass ended the scoring at 39-17.
Newton finished 17 of 26 for 300 yards passing and another 72 yards rushing, of the total 203 Auburn rushing yards. Auburn was beyond good, they dominated. The Tigers never punted and scored on seven straight possessions after falling behind 7-0. The only times they were stopped were a pair of failed fourth-down attempts and the end of the game. In addition, Auburn sacked Stanford quarterback Luck six times. Auburn earned their birth in the title game, and Stanford will eventually enjoy their taste of final four life, and hope to be back, maybe, in twelve months.
GAME 2: #2 Oregon 35, #6 Ohio State 10
Ohio State gained the most total yards (370 to 312), had the most first downs (32 to 25), and less penalty yards (66 to 65). What is the essential ingredient left that could lead to the Buckeyes losing by 25? Turnovers, OSU four, Oregon zero.
In this matchup of Pac-10 champ versus Big Ten co-champ (aka, "Rose Bowl II" or the "Florida Rose Bowl"), Duck QB Darron Thomas was 25 of 41 for 240 yards, whereas the Bucks passer Terrelle Pryor completed 32 of 50 passes for 280 yards and a touchdown, but he threw three interceptions, including one returned for a 62-yard score.
The Buckeyes had their chances early. But six possessions inside the Oregon territory in the first half resulted in just one touchdown. After Ohio State could not convert a fourth down at the Duck 29-yard line on its opening possession, Thomas found Jeff Maehl practically uncovered down the sideline on a 71 yard TD pass.
Maehl scored for a second time on a 3-yard pass in the third quarter, breaking the game open after Devin Barclay's 42-yard field goal put Ohio State back within two scores. Maehl's TD gave the Ducks a 29-10 lead in the third, and two more Oregon field goals ended the scoring. Ohio State's only other score came in the first quarter on a 5-yard Pryor touchdown pass.
So unlike last season in Syracuse, when #5 Florida upended #1 Alabama and #6 Boise State nipped #2 Texas, this season we have played eight games just to see #1 and #2 play for it all in Arizona in two weeks.
UPDATED TOURNAMENT RESULTS:
FIRST ROUND:
In Arlington, TX:
7 Oklahoma 48
10 Connecticut 20
In Charlotte:
8 Arkansas 22
9 Virginia Tech 12
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Sugar:
1 Auburn 22
7 Oklahoma 16
Rose:
4 Stanford 37
5 Wisconsin 20
Fiesta:
2 Oregon 19
8 Arkansas 12
Orange:
3 Texas Christian 30
6 Ohio State 31
Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL:
1 Auburn 39
4 Stanford 17
2 Oregon 35
6 Ohio State 10
BCS Championship in Glendale AZ: (results posted here, exclusively(!), on January 29th)
1 Auburn
2 Oregon
GAME 1: #1 Auburn 39, #4 Stanford 17
Many analysts liked Stanford as a team to watch in this tournament. With an impressive 37-20 Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin, the Cardinal seemed like a team playing with house money, and with the possibility of losing their beloved coach and quarterback a real motivator to take advantage of this opportunity. Last season, the "stepping down" of Urban Meyer seemed to propel the fifth seeded Florida Gators to a title, why not a Stanford/Harbaugh version in 2010-2011?
The game seemed to indicate this direction in the early going. Auburn took the kickoff, and then drove 49 yards in seven plays, but the Cardinal faithful erupted as the Tigers turned the ball over on downs on the Stanford 31. Stanford took the ball on a 6:33, 13 play, 69 drive, capped by an Andrew Luck 11 yard touchdown pass, and the Cardinal grabbed the 7-0 lead. Palo Alto physicists probably wish they could have frozen that moment in time, because the rest of the day belonged to the Tigers.
Auburn took their next possession on a 5 play, 68 yard, barely over two minute drive, capped by a 7-yard Cam Newton TD run. A missed PAT kept the Cardinal with the lead, but their next drive was a dismal 3 play, -13 yard possession, and the ball was punted right back to to Auburn, who proceeded to drive 69 yards on 5 plays in just under a minute and a half. Newton's 28 yard touchdown run capped the drive and gave Auburn their first lead 13-7 less than a minute into the second quarter. The two teams traded 45 yard field goals in the second quarter, before Auburn put together another TD drive, this time Newton passed it in from 22 yards. The half ended with a missed Cardinal field goal attempt, so the Tigers entered the locker room up 22-10 at the half.
The Tigers continued to drive unabated in the second half compiling a 39-10 lead before a late Stanford touchdown pass ended the scoring at 39-17.
Newton finished 17 of 26 for 300 yards passing and another 72 yards rushing, of the total 203 Auburn rushing yards. Auburn was beyond good, they dominated. The Tigers never punted and scored on seven straight possessions after falling behind 7-0. The only times they were stopped were a pair of failed fourth-down attempts and the end of the game. In addition, Auburn sacked Stanford quarterback Luck six times. Auburn earned their birth in the title game, and Stanford will eventually enjoy their taste of final four life, and hope to be back, maybe, in twelve months.
GAME 2: #2 Oregon 35, #6 Ohio State 10
Ohio State gained the most total yards (370 to 312), had the most first downs (32 to 25), and less penalty yards (66 to 65). What is the essential ingredient left that could lead to the Buckeyes losing by 25? Turnovers, OSU four, Oregon zero.
In this matchup of Pac-10 champ versus Big Ten co-champ (aka, "Rose Bowl II" or the "Florida Rose Bowl"), Duck QB Darron Thomas was 25 of 41 for 240 yards, whereas the Bucks passer Terrelle Pryor completed 32 of 50 passes for 280 yards and a touchdown, but he threw three interceptions, including one returned for a 62-yard score.
The Buckeyes had their chances early. But six possessions inside the Oregon territory in the first half resulted in just one touchdown. After Ohio State could not convert a fourth down at the Duck 29-yard line on its opening possession, Thomas found Jeff Maehl practically uncovered down the sideline on a 71 yard TD pass.
Maehl scored for a second time on a 3-yard pass in the third quarter, breaking the game open after Devin Barclay's 42-yard field goal put Ohio State back within two scores. Maehl's TD gave the Ducks a 29-10 lead in the third, and two more Oregon field goals ended the scoring. Ohio State's only other score came in the first quarter on a 5-yard Pryor touchdown pass.
So unlike last season in Syracuse, when #5 Florida upended #1 Alabama and #6 Boise State nipped #2 Texas, this season we have played eight games just to see #1 and #2 play for it all in Arizona in two weeks.
UPDATED TOURNAMENT RESULTS:
FIRST ROUND:
In Arlington, TX:
7 Oklahoma 48
10 Connecticut 20
In Charlotte:
8 Arkansas 22
9 Virginia Tech 12
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Sugar:
1 Auburn 22
7 Oklahoma 16
Rose:
4 Stanford 37
5 Wisconsin 20
Fiesta:
2 Oregon 19
8 Arkansas 12
Orange:
3 Texas Christian 30
6 Ohio State 31
Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL:
1 Auburn 39
4 Stanford 17
2 Oregon 35
6 Ohio State 10
BCS Championship in Glendale AZ: (results posted here, exclusively(!), on January 29th)
1 Auburn
2 Oregon
Thursday, January 13, 2011
A Quartet of Quarterbacks Sails into Saturday's St. Pete Semi-Finals
When Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg was given the opportunity years ago to host the 2011 college football semi-finals, certainly visions of Florida Gators, maybe even Florida State and Miami, and even further, South Florida and Central Florida, danced in their heads. Certainly a big SEC presence would be expected, because three of the past four years have featured two SEC teams in the semis. Instead, the 2010-2011 reality was that no Florida teams even made the post-season tournament, much less the semi-finals. Yes, Auburn will be there to represent the SEC, but this set of teams features two Pac-10 schools, so not exactly around the corner from Tampa Bay. And Pac-10 fans often don't even want to sojourn around the corner to attend a bowl game. However, the inclusion of Auburn and the always willing to caravan Ohio State Buckeyes will make sure all of the seats are accounted for at Tropicana Field.
This year's Football's Final Four also features:
A star-filled list of quarterbacks: To start off, a little award known as, the Heisman Trophy! Auburn's Cam Newton, winner of the Heisman, will be in the house. Also Stanford's Andrew Luck is the top quarterback NFL prospect in the country. Throw in Terrelle Pryor of Ohio State, one of the most highly recruited players of recent memory. Last but not least, there is Darron Thomas who drives Oregon's scoring machine. All of these quarterbacks playing on the same day in the same stadium, wow, it feels like a college football version of the Yalta Conference.
It's been five long years: During the season prior to the tournament expanding to ten teams, USC and Ohio State were in the 2005-2006 Semi-Finals. That is the last time a Big Ten or Pac-10 team was in the Semi-Finals. And to get there fie years ago, then fourth seed Ohio State won 27-14 over then fifth seed Oregon, their opponent this Saturday.
Sanctions, shmanctions: Maybe Cam Newton, Terrelle Pryor, and his inked Buckeye comrades can have some laughs about those annoying, pesky NCAA investigators and their probing questions. NCAA cleared everybody to play in the post-season, so we can all enjoy a suspension free tourney.
This year's Football's Final Four also features:
A star-filled list of quarterbacks: To start off, a little award known as, the Heisman Trophy! Auburn's Cam Newton, winner of the Heisman, will be in the house. Also Stanford's Andrew Luck is the top quarterback NFL prospect in the country. Throw in Terrelle Pryor of Ohio State, one of the most highly recruited players of recent memory. Last but not least, there is Darron Thomas who drives Oregon's scoring machine. All of these quarterbacks playing on the same day in the same stadium, wow, it feels like a college football version of the Yalta Conference.
It's been five long years: During the season prior to the tournament expanding to ten teams, USC and Ohio State were in the 2005-2006 Semi-Finals. That is the last time a Big Ten or Pac-10 team was in the Semi-Finals. And to get there fie years ago, then fourth seed Ohio State won 27-14 over then fifth seed Oregon, their opponent this Saturday.
Sanctions, shmanctions: Maybe Cam Newton, Terrelle Pryor, and his inked Buckeye comrades can have some laughs about those annoying, pesky NCAA investigators and their probing questions. NCAA cleared everybody to play in the post-season, so we can all enjoy a suspension free tourney.
Sorry Texas Christian, Maybe My Tournament Should Run on Dunkel
My college tournament plays out the initial rounds by using a combination of how the teams (say A versus B and C versus D) performed in their bowl games, and then using computer ratings to determine how games would turn out if A played C and B played D, if that was how my tournament pairings were laid out. If I was lucky, I'd have some actual bowl games that corresponded to one of my pretend games, like Oklahoma versus Connecticut this year. One memorable real life bowl that also happened to be one of my tournament match-ups was #2 Texas losing to #7 Georgia in the 1984 Cotton Bowl. If I would have generated a result like that from my method, it probably would have seemed improbable. Another real life game that was one of my tournament games was Oklahoma and Boise State's Fiesta Bowl. Again, if I had come up with a Bronco win using my method, it probably would have seemed flawed.
As a Chicago native, I initially used the Dunkel Index, a computer ranking system that was available in the Chicago Tribune's Sports Section. Time went by, newspapers scaled back, and the Dunkel Ratings became harder to find. So I switched to USA Today's Sagarin Ratings for my tournament. These ratings are part of my "pre-specified" methods, so that no matter what happens with the games, all I have to do is plug numbers into a spreadsheet to get my results.
Anyway, in my tournament, the #3 versus #6 game was between TCU and Ohio State. TCU won by two over Wisconsin in real life, and Ohio State beat Arkansas by five. My methods plugged these results along with the Sagarin ratings to speculate that OSU would beat TCU by one if they had met on the field, and play they way they did in their bowls. The main reason TCU was down-graded was that Sagarin ranked one-loss Wisconsin as the 14th best team in the country, whereas Arkansas was in the top 10. TCU beating Wisconsin by only two left the door wide open for Ohio State in my tournament, although Arkansas had a chance in the last minute to win, which would have given the Horned Frogs a win versus the Buckeyes in my pretend world. And just from my perspective, I think early Sugar Bowl OSU was the most impressive team of those four in their bowl, and I think if the Buckeyes had lined up for the two-point conversion rather than the Badgers to tie TCU in the waning minutes of the Rose Bowl, I think the Bucks would have gotten the job done.
Just because I am a curious guy, I took a look at the Dunkel Index last week, which is now run by a third generation of Dunkels and published on-line. I immediately noticed that Dunkel had TCU #4 and Wisconsin #5 prior to the bowls, with OSU and Arkansas in the bottom five of the top ten. I didn't need to do the calculations, it was immediately apparent. If I had used Dunkel, TCU would have beaten OSU by four to five points.
Now, there were things I always liked about Dunkel. It seemed to allow the top team or teams to get a much higher rating than their peers than Sagarin seems to do. For instance, I bet the Auburn post-bowl Dunkel rating is much higher than their peers, whereas Sagarin has Auburn and Stanford only 0.01 apart. At this stage of the tournament, I use the computer ratings with a distribution based on how variable teams play based on the non-BCS bowl games. In short, my Auburn-Stanford semi-final is basically a coin flip. Based on Auburn pushing around Oregon's offensive line, I think that seems less plausible that Auburn and Stanford are basically even Steven. Or maybe Andrew Luck would provide more passing precision for Stanford than Oregon showed, and the Cardinal would have greater offensive success.
But the downside of Dunkel is what I referred to in the last paragraph, I have to speculate on the post-bowl ratings. Dunkel hasn't updated them yet, and I use the post bowl ratings for my semi-finals and championship game. Sagarin's were published soon after the last piece of confetti hit the University of Phoenix turf after the championship. So for this year, Sagarin is my system. Sorry TCU, you narrowly beat a team that Sagarin didn't love. In general, his scores don't love most of the Big Ten. Michigan State beat Wisconsin, and lost to only Iowa and Alabama, yet they finish the season as #31 in Sagarin's post-bowl standings.
As a Chicago native, I initially used the Dunkel Index, a computer ranking system that was available in the Chicago Tribune's Sports Section. Time went by, newspapers scaled back, and the Dunkel Ratings became harder to find. So I switched to USA Today's Sagarin Ratings for my tournament. These ratings are part of my "pre-specified" methods, so that no matter what happens with the games, all I have to do is plug numbers into a spreadsheet to get my results.
Anyway, in my tournament, the #3 versus #6 game was between TCU and Ohio State. TCU won by two over Wisconsin in real life, and Ohio State beat Arkansas by five. My methods plugged these results along with the Sagarin ratings to speculate that OSU would beat TCU by one if they had met on the field, and play they way they did in their bowls. The main reason TCU was down-graded was that Sagarin ranked one-loss Wisconsin as the 14th best team in the country, whereas Arkansas was in the top 10. TCU beating Wisconsin by only two left the door wide open for Ohio State in my tournament, although Arkansas had a chance in the last minute to win, which would have given the Horned Frogs a win versus the Buckeyes in my pretend world. And just from my perspective, I think early Sugar Bowl OSU was the most impressive team of those four in their bowl, and I think if the Buckeyes had lined up for the two-point conversion rather than the Badgers to tie TCU in the waning minutes of the Rose Bowl, I think the Bucks would have gotten the job done.
Just because I am a curious guy, I took a look at the Dunkel Index last week, which is now run by a third generation of Dunkels and published on-line. I immediately noticed that Dunkel had TCU #4 and Wisconsin #5 prior to the bowls, with OSU and Arkansas in the bottom five of the top ten. I didn't need to do the calculations, it was immediately apparent. If I had used Dunkel, TCU would have beaten OSU by four to five points.
Now, there were things I always liked about Dunkel. It seemed to allow the top team or teams to get a much higher rating than their peers than Sagarin seems to do. For instance, I bet the Auburn post-bowl Dunkel rating is much higher than their peers, whereas Sagarin has Auburn and Stanford only 0.01 apart. At this stage of the tournament, I use the computer ratings with a distribution based on how variable teams play based on the non-BCS bowl games. In short, my Auburn-Stanford semi-final is basically a coin flip. Based on Auburn pushing around Oregon's offensive line, I think that seems less plausible that Auburn and Stanford are basically even Steven. Or maybe Andrew Luck would provide more passing precision for Stanford than Oregon showed, and the Cardinal would have greater offensive success.
But the downside of Dunkel is what I referred to in the last paragraph, I have to speculate on the post-bowl ratings. Dunkel hasn't updated them yet, and I use the post bowl ratings for my semi-finals and championship game. Sagarin's were published soon after the last piece of confetti hit the University of Phoenix turf after the championship. So for this year, Sagarin is my system. Sorry TCU, you narrowly beat a team that Sagarin didn't love. In general, his scores don't love most of the Big Ten. Michigan State beat Wisconsin, and lost to only Iowa and Alabama, yet they finish the season as #31 in Sagarin's post-bowl standings.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Sugar Bowl: Auburn's Defense Overcomes Oklahoma's Persistence, 22-16
Oklahoma, coming off an easy First Round win over Connecticut, seemed to have a defense in sync to stop Heisman winner Cam Newton early, and Auburn initially struggled against the defense of Bob Stoops. A raucous Superdome filled with Sooner booming and fired up, top seeded Auburn faithful created a lot of noise, but no scoring early, as the first frame ended with, what Harry Caray used to say, "The little boy shot at, nothing."
Three minutes into the second quarter, one of the goose eggs was removed from the scoreboard as Auburn broke through on a 35 yard Newton pass to Kodi Burns, to grab a Tiger 7-0 lead. The Sooners showed they were not here to be a second tier walkover, and tied the game on a Ryan Broyles 5 yard touchdown reception from Landry Jones.
In what seemed to be a big break for the Sooners soon appeared to be a reversal of fortune. Auburn took a chance on fourth and goal, and a dropped pass seemed to give Oklahoma momentum. But Auburn turned the opportunity in a safety, and took the ensuing kick to start a drive capped by a Newton 30 yard TD pass to Emory Blake, and suddenly Auburn led 16-7. The Sooners knew they had to stay in the game, and chipped away with a Jimmy Stevens field goal, and the game set at 16-10 and halftime.
In the second half, it was Auburn's defense seemed to begin to take the air out of the Sooners hopes of an upset. Wes Byrum's 28 yard field goal put the Tigers up 19-10. Field goals finished the scoring, but the game was not as close as the final score appeared, as Auburn won 22-16. The Tigers stay in SEC country, and move on to the St. Petersburg Semi-Finals to take on Rose Bowl winner Stanford on Saturday, January 15th.
UPDATED TOURNAMENT RESULTS:
FIRST ROUND:
In Arlington, TX:
7 Oklahoma 48
10 Connecticut 20
In Charlotte:
8 Arkansas 22
9 Virginia Tech 12
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Sugar:
1 Auburn 22
7 Oklahoma 16
Rose:
4 Stanford 37
5 Wisconsin 20
Fiesta:
2 Oregon 19
8 Arkansas 12
Orange:
3 Texas Christian 30
6 Ohio State 31
Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL: (results posted here, exclusively(!), on January 15th)
Auburn versus Stanford
Oregon versus Ohio State
BCS Championship in Glendale AZ
Three minutes into the second quarter, one of the goose eggs was removed from the scoreboard as Auburn broke through on a 35 yard Newton pass to Kodi Burns, to grab a Tiger 7-0 lead. The Sooners showed they were not here to be a second tier walkover, and tied the game on a Ryan Broyles 5 yard touchdown reception from Landry Jones.
In what seemed to be a big break for the Sooners soon appeared to be a reversal of fortune. Auburn took a chance on fourth and goal, and a dropped pass seemed to give Oklahoma momentum. But Auburn turned the opportunity in a safety, and took the ensuing kick to start a drive capped by a Newton 30 yard TD pass to Emory Blake, and suddenly Auburn led 16-7. The Sooners knew they had to stay in the game, and chipped away with a Jimmy Stevens field goal, and the game set at 16-10 and halftime.
In the second half, it was Auburn's defense seemed to begin to take the air out of the Sooners hopes of an upset. Wes Byrum's 28 yard field goal put the Tigers up 19-10. Field goals finished the scoring, but the game was not as close as the final score appeared, as Auburn won 22-16. The Tigers stay in SEC country, and move on to the St. Petersburg Semi-Finals to take on Rose Bowl winner Stanford on Saturday, January 15th.
UPDATED TOURNAMENT RESULTS:
FIRST ROUND:
In Arlington, TX:
7 Oklahoma 48
10 Connecticut 20
In Charlotte:
8 Arkansas 22
9 Virginia Tech 12
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Sugar:
1 Auburn 22
7 Oklahoma 16
Rose:
4 Stanford 37
5 Wisconsin 20
Fiesta:
2 Oregon 19
8 Arkansas 12
Orange:
3 Texas Christian 30
6 Ohio State 31
Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL: (results posted here, exclusively(!), on January 15th)
Auburn versus Stanford
Oregon versus Ohio State
BCS Championship in Glendale AZ
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