Friday, December 29, 2023

The Sporting News Predicts My 2023-2024 College Football Tournament

 Actually, The Sporting News predicted the real bowls, and I took their results for my tournament projections...



Thursday, December 28, 2023

Hey Blanche, it is time for the 2023-2024 college football tournament selection show!




Welcome to the 2023-2024 College Football Tournament selection show, sponsored by Buffalo Wild Wings traditional wings with mild sauce.  Now to the ESPN Studios, with Rece Davis, Mark May, and Lou Holtz.

RECE:  Welcome to our College Football Tournament selection show, and welcome to our dear, dear old friends Lou Holtz and Mark May.  

LOU: Rece and Mark, I am so excited to be here, and this tournament is going to be just great.

MARK: I agree coach, we have what I think will be a wide open tournament, with seven Big Five teams that are either undefeated or one loss.  This could be one of the great tournaments that we have ever seen.

RECE: So guys, here is what we know so far.  The wild card hopefuls, as usual, were rooting for all the teams with less losses would win their conference championship games, because otherwise teams like Michigan, Florida State, and Washington would fall into the wild card pool of teams, and knock out teams like Penn State and Missouri from wild card slots.  In the Big Ten, from the end of the last season, Michigan was a slight favorite over Ohio State for conference champion, with Penn State in contention, and things played out exactly that way.  Michigan is automatically qualified, I am going to guess as top seed, and certainly one-loss Ohio State will be a wild card team, and Penn State is in the running for an at-large position.  

In the Pac-12, for the early part of the season USC seemed to be a lock, but Washington, Oregon, and two-time defending champion Utah had their supporters to make tourney runs, and Washington was victorious twice over Oregon to win the conference.  The Huskies look like a two seed, and Oregon is in the mix for a wild card slot.  Washington also looks solid for a Rose Bowl spot to stay on the west coast.

In the ACC, Florida State was a season opening favorite over Clemson, and they remained undefeated to qualify for the tournament.  But the loss of Seminole quarterback Jordan Travis has dampened their national championship resolve.

LOU: But remember Rece, without Jordan Travis, they still were victorious over tough teams like Florida and Louisville, and I thought Louisville would win that game.  So Florida State is dangerous, I tell you.  Their defense can give teams fits.

MARK: And Florida State has a good chance to play in state at the Orange Bowl.  We have had Orange Bowl eras with consecutive Florida State games, then Clemson.  Maybe this starts another FSU Orange Bowl era.

RECE: And most likely, Louisville, is out of the running for a wild card slot, ending yhe season with losses to Kentucky and Florida State.  

In the SEC, Georgia was ranked number one since the end of last season, stayed undefeated until SEC championship, but lost the automatic bid to Alabama.  Now, the wild card teams were rooting for Georgia, but likely a two-loss Alabama team would have taken one of the wild card positions anyway.  This was a different kind of year for the SEC, both Georgia and Alabama are one loss teams, but they both left the door open to upsets in many games compared to previous seasons. And Missouri emerged as a wild card contender, with great excitement because St. Louis is hosting the Semi-Finals.

And in the Big 12, TCU, Kansas State, and Texas all had their time as favorites to win the conference, but for much of the season Oklahoma controlled their destiny.  But Texas took the conference title, and are hoping for a very nice road to the championship, perhaps through New Orleans, through St. Louis, through home state Houston.  Oklahoma has a very outside chance for a wild card.

So the last automatic slot is for the non-Power Five teams.  For part of the season we were looking at Fresno State, then Air Force, but they both faded.  Mark, there was a possible scenario this year that made that for an interesting possibility.  

MARK: Yes, the top ranked conference champion from the Group of Five automatically qualifies, but if two conference champions finish both above a Power Five conference champion and in the top 16, both champions qualify.  So the scenario was that if Oklahoma State won the Big XII, and both Tulane and Liberty finished above the Cowboys. both teams would qualify.  However, Oklahoma State lost, but also Tulane lost, even one-loss Toledo lost, so that leaves Liberty and SMU as the candidates for the last automatic bid.  

RECE: So that is the first big question, who gets the Group of Five bid?

MARK:  I think the strength of schedule of SMU is a big focal point for the American conference, and I think SMU will make it in over Liberty.  

LOU: No, no, no Mark.  The extra qualifier was designed to make sure undefeated teams had a chance.  SMU is a two-loss team, Liberty is undefeated, they are going to make the tournament.

RECE: So now that Georgia has lost, who do we see as top seed coach?

LOU: It is going to be Michigan as top seed.  And this is a different Michigan team than the previous two.  Watch out for them, they have a chip on their shoulder, they are hungry to take down the SEC a peg this year.  

MARK: I agree coach, Michigan at the top, Washington at number two, Florida State third.  But then the real drama, the four one loss teams.  One will be seventh seed and will be assigned a First Round game.  So Texas, Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State, one of those teams will be out of the top six.

RECE:  So coach, who will it be, forced to play a First Round game, of those bluebloods?  

LOU:  Well, Texas beat Alabama, Alabama beat Georgia, so that has to be their order.  It will be Ohio State fourth, then Texas, then Alabama, and Georgia will be seventh seed.  Bulldogs will have to play a First Round game, after two national championships.

MARK:  I agree with coach's sequence but I think it will be Texas fourth, then Alabama, then Georgia, and Ohio State as seventh seed.  

LOU: No way Mark, Ohio State does not fall to seventh.  They were in the top six, they did not lose this past weekend, and they lost their only loss to top seeded Michigan on the road.  No, Ohio State is a top six team.

RECE: So Mark, that leaves two Wild Card spots, with Oregon, Missouri, Penn State, and Oklahoma vying for those slots.  Who is in?

MARK: I think Rece that it will be Oregon and Missouri taking those positions, with a lot of excitement that Mizzou will be fighting for a spot in the St. Louis Semi-Finals.

LOU: No Mark, yes, it will be Oregon, but Penn State will take the last spot.

RECE: Coach, the waiting is over.  It is time to go to Brent Musburger on the field at NRG Stadium in Houston, where this year's championship game will be played. Brent?



BRENT:  You are looking...LIVE at NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas, the site of this season's college football championship game.  Hi there everybody, ten teams will play to win here, and take home the BCS championship trophy. And now, it is time for the Jarrito Loco Mexican Restaurant of Monument, Colorado bracket presentation.

Let's go to tournament Commissioner Nelson, who will reveal this year's tournament.

COMMISIONER: Thank you Brent. It is my yearly pleasure to announce the teams that will be playing in the 2023-2024 BCS College Football Tournament.

In the First Round, in Blacksburg, Virginia, the seventh seed, the Buckeyes of Ohio State University, at-large team of the Big Ten, will play the tenth seed, and champion of the Conference USA conference, the Liberty University Flames.

The other First Round game will be played in Seattle, Washington, where the eighth seed and at-large team of the Pac-12 Conference, the Ducks of the University of Oregon, will take on the ninth seeded Penn State Nittany Lions, at-large team of the Big Ten Conference.

The top four seeds in order will be Michigan playing at the Cotton Bowl, then number two is Washington playing in the Rose Bowl, then number three is Alabama playing in the Sugar Bowl, and lastly number four is Florida State playing in the Orange Bowl.  Due to the number of teams that have played one another among the ten teams, the following table summarizes the opponents based on First Round results.



The winners of the BCS quarterfinals will meet in St. Louis for Football's Final Four, and the winner of the semi-finals will play for the BCS championship, right here, in Houston.

BRENT: Thank you Commissioner, it shapes up to be an extremely balanced tournament. So for the viewers who may be wondering, this season has a lot of contingency brackets, as it were, correct?
COMMISH:  Right Brent.  Our guidance is to avoid regular season rematches in First Round and Bowl game quarterfinals.  Michigan played both Ohio State and Penn State, as did Alabama with both Texas and Georgia.  Therefore, many scenarios are needed to avoid re-matches.

BRENT:  How close was Missouri were to making the tournament?
COMMISH:  Really, the race to the last spot was not that close, Penn State had a solid lead over Missouri and Mississippi, who were virtually tied.
BRENT: Plus I am sure Coach Holtz must know how close it was between Georgia and Ohio State for sixth.
COMMISH: It was pretty close, as were a lot of the seedings this year.  Actually Alabama over Florida State for third seed was the slimmest margin.
BRENT: Lastly, was it close between Liberty and SMU for the last automatic spot?
COMMISH: Liberty was the clear selection for this slot, Iowa was ranked between Liberty and SMU.
BRENT:  Thank you Commissioner, it is going to be a superb tournament.  And now back to Rece at the studio.
(microphones pick up unsuspecting continuing conversation)

BRENT: Good job Commissioner. You did fine.
COMMISH:  Thanks, I wore my largest jacket because I have put on some weight, 2023 has been such a stressful year, with talk of this new twelve team playoff.  

BRENT:  You looked fine.  And a bit of Ozempic will get you back to optimal weight.  
(back to the studio)

RECE: Well, as usual, we have some surprises.  Mark what stands out to you?

MARK:  Immediately, seeing Alabama at #3 was a shock.  Getting the win over former #1 Georgia rewarded the Crimson Tide handsomely.

LOU: No question, they leapfrogged Texas and Florida State.  That was huge.  And Ohio State has to play a First Round game at Virginia Tech to meet Liberty, and if they win, they have to play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  The Buckeyes were given a really tough path this year.  And why does Ohio State slip, they did not lose this past weekend, their only loss was to top ranked Michigan on the road.  Why the fall to seventh?

MARK: Compare that to Georgia.  No First Round game, and likely they will play Washington in the Rose Bowl, and the Huskies have not been dominant during the second half of the season.  I think it is a better path than Ohio State's.  Texas did not get the neighboring state Sugar Bowl, but I think they have a pretty good draw.  They get a Florida State team without their star QB, and they are likely on the other side of the bracket than Alabama and Georgia, and the championship is in Houston.  So good news for the Longhorns.

RECE: Coach, who would not be happy with their draw?  

LOU: I think Washington is happy to get the Rose Bowl, but playing Georgia is not a good reward for being second seed.  So they will be rooting for Penn State to beat Oregon, so they can play Penn State.  But then Michigan would be so unhappy to play Georgia, because they have played both Ohio State and Penn State.  So Michigan will be a huge Oregon fans against Penn State.

MARK: Think about the Oregon-Penn State game in Seattle; there will be Oregon fans, Penn State fans, but a lot of local Husky fans may show up to root for the Nittany Lions, because a PSU win makes them the Washington opponent, whereas Georgia would instead play Michigan.  Some Michigan fans may actually show up in Seattle to root for Oregon.

RECE: So guys, give us your impressions on how the tournament will play out.  Mark?

MARK:  Think about this fellows, eight of the ten tournament team will be either in the SEC or Big Ten next season.  Only Florida State and Liberty will not be part of those two mega-conferences.  So I think this tournament will follow the ghost of SEC future.  I see Georgia, Alabama, and Texas all advancing to St. Louis, and Oregon joining them after upsetting Michigan.

LOU: You are right Mark, five of these teams will be in the Big Ten next season, and I think it will be the ghost of Big Ten future in St. Louis: Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, along with Texas.  Watch out for Ohio State.  They are under the radar, but may be the best team, and win it all.  Ohio State in their current record eleventh straight tournament, with no titles yet. 

MARK:  For me, the team to watch is Oregon.  They also would avoid Alabama and Georgia most likely until a championship game.

RECE: And the team completely under the radar, watch out for a team we normally mention: Penn State. Very quiet, but an interesting path through Oregon and Washington.

Well, guys, thank you so much, we are so ready.  For Lou and Mark, goodnight.



Saturday, February 4, 2023

Repeat After Georgia; Bulldogs Take Second Consecutive Title, Beat Tennessee 36-13.

It would be a fairy tale ending no matter what team won the 2022-2023 college football national championship.  For #1 Georgia, the defending national champion, undefeated SEC champion, they were roaming the countryside knocking over everything in their wake like a giant of yore.  For #6 Tennessee, their QB Joe Milton III was a real Cinderella story: holding clipboards at Michigan and Knoxville, getting a chance to start in the last game of the season.  Tennessee barely made the big dance as the last at-large team, and Milton made ugly stepsisters out of #3 Ohio State and #2 Michigan on his way to the big stage: SoFi Stadium in Southern California.  Georgia had beaten Tennessee 27-13 at home at Sanford Stadium earlier in the season, but Milton made it in for a play.  Time to see the Giant versus the Cinderella.

Tennessee took the opening kickoff, but Milton went 1-4 passing, and the Vols punted.  Georgia's giants took the ball 87 yards, capped by running back Kendall Milton punching it in for a touchdown as the Bulldogs scored from 1 yard out, with just under 8 minutes to go in the first.  Tennessee's possession played to the Vols strengths, as a 14 play, 75 yard, five and one half minute drive culminated in Jaylen Wright's matching 1 yard TD run to even the score with 2:10 left in the first frame.  As the first quarter ended, Georgia kicker Jack Podlesny connected on a 57 yard field goal to give the Bulldogs a 10-7 lead.

Tennessee's second quarter was offensively dismal: two punts and a Milton lost fumble on eleven total plays.  On the Bulldog side of the ball, they added a 21-yard Podlesny field goal, and then a touchdown on Adonai Mitchell's 22 yard pass from Stetson Bennett IV, and finally a 48-yard Podlesny field goal as the first half ended.  Georgia was in solid control after dominating the quarter, ahead 23-7 at the break.  

Georgia started the second half with the ball, and controlled with a seven minute drive which culminated with a 38-yard Podlesny field goal, for a 26-7 lead. Tennessee continued to create the big plays that had been a big part of their portfolio, and produced a scoreless third quarter.

Podlesny started the fourth quarter scoring with a 38 yard field goal, and the 29-7 lead was starting to look insurmountable for Tennessee.  The Vols did add a five minute 91 yard drive, ending with Wright's 2 yard TD run, to close the lead to 29-13, as the two-point conversion failed, and 9:03 remained.  The Volunteer defense stopped the Bulldogs for a three and out to keep their hopes alive.  However on a fourth down pass, Milton was sacked and lost the fumble.  The Bulldogs had the ball in Tennessee territory. and Brock Bowers 22 yard pass from Bennett for TD stretched the lead to 36-13, with 2:29 to go.  Tennessee drove downfield but Milton tossed an interception from the UGA 12 with 46 seconds left.  The celebration started as Georgia wins back to back titles.  

''We wanted our kids to play without fear,'' Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. ''All year I told them, I said, `We ain't getting hunted guys, we're doing the hunting, and hunting season's almost over. We've only got one more chance to hunt,' and we hunted tonight.''

''That was special,'' said Georgia QB Bennett. ''I'll remember that for the rest of my life. I love this team, I love those fans, I love our band. I love everybody.  Back-to-back, baby. Back-to-back.''

''Last year's team probably had more talent on it,'' Smart said. ''But this year's team was different, like they had this eye of the tiger. They weren't going to lose.''




Sunday, January 15, 2023

Semi-Finals Syracuse: Georgia rolls over Alabama 33-7; Tennessee QB Milton Wins Michigan Reunion, 35-19

Things have a changed a bit since January, 2010, when Syracuse last hosted Football's Final Four.  That day in 2010, not only was the weather different, gorgeous spring-ish sun back then compared to this year's light flurries, but that teams were Alabama taking on Florida, followed by Texas and Boise State. Fast forward to 2023, and only Bama is back; the Gators, Horns, and Broncos seem a ways off from Final Four returns.

Back then, two underdog seeds won their Semi's:  Tim Tebow leading Florida past Alabama in an SEC rematch, and Boise State taking Texas playing without their star QB.  After six of the closest set of games in tournament history, all eyes were on Syracuse to see how the next step in the tournament progressed.  

SYRACUSE SEMI-FINALS:

GAME 1: #1 Georgia 33, #5 Alabama 7

Leading up to this Semi-Final, Alabama was a popular pick to pull an upset.  The Saban mystique, not having played each other yet this season, questions about the Dawg defense, and coach Kirby Smart seeming a bit tight as a drum, all fed into the notion that Tide QB Bryce Young and his team would pull out a win.  

But Georgia was ready for a battle.  Bulldogs started the scoring with Jack Podlesny's 24 yard field goal to grab the head.  But Young hit a 60 yard pass to give the Crimson Tide first and goal.  From the 2 yard line, Young rolled left but found an open path to the end zone, and Alabama took a 7-3 lead with 4:45 to go in the first.  But Georgia responded, on Adonai Mitchell's 10 yard pass reception from Stetson Bennett with 2:43 left in quarter one, and the frame ended with Georgia up 10-7.

The Bulldogs never looked back.  Their defensive pass rush steamrolled Bama and Young was harassed all game.  The Tide was shut out in the second quarter, and Georgia added another Podlesny field goal with 8:30 left in the half, and Bennett called his own number, ran left, gets a block, and #13 cruised into the end zone for a touchdown on a 21 yard run with 26 seconds left until the break.  Halftime, Georgia 20, Alabama 7.

Georgia defensive dominance continued in the second half, and with 2:17 left in the third, Georgia QB Bennett stood in the pocket and connected with wide, wide open Ladd McConkey five yards deep in the end zone for a 37-yard touchdown pass.  UGA up 27-7.  With 7:23 left in the game, Georgia's Bennett kept it himself, ran left without a defender with yards of him, to increase Georgia's lead over Alabama to 33-7, after Podlesny's PAT failed. 

Georgia makes a big step toward their second straight title and clear SEC dominance, and move on to SoCal's SoFi Stadium for the championship game.

GAME 2: #6 Tennessee 35, #2 Michigan 19

The second game matched two teams that won by a single point in their quarterfinal bowl game, but the first Football Final Four appearance by Michigan during the Jim Harbaugh era (he did make a Semi-Finals along with Andrew Luck and Stanford) had a unique storyline, as former Wolverine QB and Tennessee transfer backup Joe Milton III made another start with season long star starter Hendon Hooker out for the post-season.  Milton had last game upset Ohio State, would his former matriculation also feel the pain of an SEC victory over the Big Ten?

Michigan took the opening drive to midfield, but Vol defensive back Tamarion McDonald picked off Wolverine QB J.J. McCarthy to give the Tennessee the ball.  After a key 3rd and 13 play resulted in a 42 yard Milton pass completion, the Volunteers drive continued until Milton hit running back Jamari Small for a 15 yard TD with 9:39 left in the first quarter.  Michigan responded with a systematic drive downfield, but Jake Moody missed a 51 yard field goal with 4:07 left in the first quarter.  Both teams exchanged punts, when Tennessee had the ball back with 11:40 left in the second quarter.  The Vols 80 yard drive included a Milton 29 yard pass and later a Michigan unnecessary roughness penalty against Milton.  Finally, Milton hit tight end Princeton Fant for a 2 yard touchdown pass with 7:36 left in the first half, for 14-0 Volunteer lead.

Michigan drove down field again, leading to a Moody 41-yard field goal attempt.  But Moody's attempt was blocked, and Tennessee ran the ball back for a special teams touchdown with 4:19 left.  Seemingly suddenly, Michigan was down 21-0 at halftime.

Tennessee received the second half kickoff and went right to work.  With 11:15 left in the third, Vols freshman running back Dylan Sampson ran in an 18 yard touchdown, increasing the lead to 28-0.  Finally. Michigan scored on A. J. Henning's kickoff return, to get on the scoreboard 28-7.   The two teams exchanged punts, and the Tennessee had a very succinct scoring drive: two Jaylen Wright runs, of 8 and 45 yards, the latter for touchdown.  With 3:26 left in the 3rd, it felt like it was all wrapped up.  Vols up 35-7.

Michigan did all the scoring in the fourth, with a 49 yard field goal by Moody, blocking a Vol punt through the end zone for a safety, and a QB McCarthy 20 yard run.  The variety of scoring was admirable, but not enough.  Milton was victorious over his former team, winning 35-19.  Next up, a re-match with Georgia for the national title.



Wednesday, January 4, 2023

Here is my current projection of the proposed 12 team college playoff

Okay.  No, I do not "love" the proposed 12-team college football playoff.  But, here is my projection of the proposed 12 team tourney based on my unpatented method of indirect performance comparisons…waiting for TCU’s second game to project against Utah’s Rose Bowl game.



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