No real changes as lack of ranked team match-ups prevail

It was a Saturday without any games between two ranked teams,  Not one, other than the Thursday UCLA-Arizona State match-up, all weekend.  Florida State and Texas A&M looked vulnerable but prevailed.  South Carolina lost, which probably didn't do much for the computation rankings of aspiring Group of Five rep East Carolina, a lower to the Gamecocks.

So no changes in the teams in the projected tourney, and a good weekend ahead: Stanford-ND, Bama-Ole Miss, LSU-Texas A&M, Nebraska-Michigan State, and Oklahoma-TCU.  It might be fun in the old rankings next week.

1	Florida State	0.9370
2	Alabama	0.9236
3	Oregon	0.9126
4	Oklahoma	0.8917
5	Auburn	0.8626
6	Texas A&M	0.8000
7	UCLA	0.7088
8	Baylor	0.7026
9	Notre Dame	0.6243
10	Ole Miss	0.5875
11	Michigan State	0.5528
12	Mississippi State	0.5185
13	Georgia	0.4634
14	Stanford	0.4298
15	LSU	0.4098
16	BYU	0.3484
17	Nebraska	0.3347
18	USC	0.2843
19	Wisconsin	0.2566
20	Oklahoma State	0.2211
21	Ohio State	0.1682
22	Kansas State	0.1557
23	TCU	0.1449
24	Missouri	0.1211
25	East Carolina	0.1075

"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Charlie Weis

IN- nope; OUT-nothin'

Projected tournament!

FIRST ROUND:

In Raleigh:
7 UCLA
10 East Carolina 

In Detroit:
8 Baylor
9 Michigan State 
 
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State
Baylor/Michigan State winner

Sugar: 
4 Oklahoma
5 Auburn

Fiesta:
2 Alabama
UCLA/East Carolina winner

Rose: 
3 Oregon
6 Texas A&M

SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas

East Carolina cracks the Top 25 to represent Group of Five; Computers betray Notre Dame in favor of UCLA

Finally, a Group of Five entered the Top 25 to grab a spot in my projected tournament, as East Carolina rolled up 70 points on UNC.  With Northern Illinois losing big and Cincinnati struggling past Miami (and the Ohio one at that), the Pirates look like a proven contender, with wins over Carolina and Virginia Tech, and hanging with South Carolina until at 10 point loss.  Welcome yee buccaneers; argh!

Also, Notre Dame dropped out but there was a reason in my calculations of the computers.  Last week, I used the ratings from the Wes Colley website, and UCLA nudged out Notre Dame.  But then Colley's rankings in the USA Today computer report differed from the site, and I used those ranking, which put ND above the Bruins.  I contacted Dr Colley and he kindly replied that he adapted his rankings early in the season for USA Today, but will revert to his system by week 5.  Since his rankings on the site will become the "real thing" soon, I use those this week, and UCLA grabs the last spot.

And just as ND looks to threaten as an independent, BYU is up to #18, ten spots away from provisional qualification for independents.  Based on their games such as the home win against Virginia, if the Cougars go undefeated, it will not be easy.  But, it is interesting that BYU seemingly has outperformed UCLA against common opponents (UVA and Texas), yet UCLA gets a lot more love.  It seems that Neuheisel's performance to beat Texas as backup QB has been more impactful than BYU dominating Texas in Austin.

Speaking of backups, I certainly has mixed feelings during Florida State-Clemson.  On one hand, I did not want backup QB Sean Maguire, thrust into one of the games of the season, to take the brunt of not winning such a key game.  However, Jameis "Unnecessarily needed I" Winston sidelines circus was a good reason for him to blow the Seminoles chance with his table top antics.  But the synergy lead to an amazing, memorable game.

1	Florida State	0.9566
2	Alabama	0.9279
3	Oklahoma	0.9071
4	Auburn	0.8715
5	Oregon	0.8662
6	Texas A&M	0.8023
7	Baylor	0.6971
8	UCLA	0.6124
9	Notre Dame	0.5769
10	Ole Miss	0.5635
11	Michigan State	0.5234
12	South Carolina	0.4742
13	Mississippi State	0.4516
14	Arizona State	0.4374
15	Georgia	0.4238
16	Stanford	0.3866
17	LSU	0.3285
18	BYU	0.2722
19	Wisconsin	0.2605
20	Nebraska	0.2167
21	USC	0.1773
22	Oklahoma State	0.1360
23	Ohio State	0.1311
24	Kansas State	0.1011
25	East Carolina	0.0729

"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Jameis Winston

IN- UCLA, East Carolina; OUT-LSU, Notre Dame

Projected tournament!

FIRST ROUND:

In Raleigh:
7 Baylor
10 East Carolina 

In Detroit:
8 UCLA
9 Michigan State 
 
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State
UCLA/Michigan State winner

Rose: 
4 Auburn
5 Oregon

Fiesta:
2 Alabama
Baylor/East Carolina winner

Sugar: 
3 Oklahoma
6 Texas A&M

SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas

Notre Dame and Baylor are moving on up; BCS Standings Week 3

I think the one big difference between my tournament and the current system is there would be more focus on the "Group of Five" teams and their race to claim one of my tourney slots.  After all, this is the time of year that the Group of Five schools pollinate with match-ups against the Power Six. I am happy to see one site dedicated to the Group of Five battle for supremacy , because most pundits only care to write about their chances to make the four team playoff.

But as much as there is talk about schedule inequities among the Power Six, it may be more relevant among the Group of Five.  There is Marshall and the possibility of a cake walk to undefeatedness, then there is East Carolina, with a win over home team Virginia Tech and a 10 point, but they hung around loss at South Carolina.  Central Florida goes overseas to lose to Penn State and to Mizzou for loss number two.  Cincinnati visits Ohio State in a couple weeks, and Northern Illinois, already a winner at Northwestern, going to Arkansas this week.  Who can compare the merits of such schedules to determine who should get the Big Six bowl bid (or the bid or bids in my tourney for that matter)?

It seems like to increase the chance of the big New Year's bowl payday, there will be incentive for teams to "pull a Marshall" and not take on any of the Power schools.

I think for all of the Power Five and Group of Five schools, there may be a time to add a little fairness, and drama, to these non-conferences match-ups.  After all, how can it be fair at all that teams basically decide their own schedule in the real life system which requires subjective assessment of team merit?  How about teams are allowed to create 10-game schedules, and then the remaining two games are decided in an NBA type lottery ball TV special to decide the last two opponents.  Power Five schools would get one ball from the lottery with the name of an out of conference Power Five opponent, and a second with one of the Group of Five schools.  Same with the Group of Five.  A little drama, a little fun, and a little accountability.

Of the teams to watch, I say NIU's game at Arkansas might be very interesting this week, and Cincinnati's game at OSU will be an interesting QB contrast.  Of course, we have to keep an eye on whether Marshall can keep moving along.

Of course, BYU is in the undefeated mix as well, with foes like Central Florida and Utah State as their biggest hurdles.  An undefeated BYU will put a little pressure on the Playoff committee, but Cougars, you are welcome to my tourney, with an provisional qualification with a top eight finish.  With ND and BYU both perhaps having good seasons, maybe I should rethink "independents in the Top 8" making it, and make the rule "the highest ranked independent in the Top 8."  Either way, I would love to see both teams back in my tourney this season.

One team to watch this year and future years is UTSA aka Texas-San Antonio.  They went into pre-season Group of Five "darling to watch" Houston's grand opening of their new digs, and blew out the Cougars.  Then they lost by six at home to Arizona, before a big loss to Oklahoma State.  But national champion coach Larry Coker's program is one to watch for the future, and will there be talk someday that they have surpassed the Longhorns at some point?

One thing I noticed during the Northwestern-Northern Illinois game occurred late in the game.  NIU was drubbing the B1G Ten hosts, but the Wildcats completed a long TD pass late in the game to at least give NU a mathematical chance.  The QB ran down the field with two index fingers raised, as in "number one!"  Dude, you are getting beaten by Northern Illinois, you are likely to lose at home, yet, you are number one.  I have seen this gut reflex of other players and fans in response to one good play in a sea of mis-steps.  I think Andy Warhol was wrong, not fifteen minutes of fame.  We are pursuing fifteen seconds of being noticed, whether for a meaningless QB sack or a viral video of a cute kitty.

Another thing I noticed during the Illinois-Western Kentucky game. My vote for the day's most meaningless graphic during a college football broadcast, "WKU's first fumble recovery for TD since 2012."  Well, that wasn't that long ago, I do not expect fumble returns for TD to occur regularly.

USC wins at Stanford, works their way up the rankings and into my projected tourney last week, yet still are a program ensconced in goofiness.  First Pat Haden runs down to the field.  That was bad enough, but when the coach takes time from a crucial game to have Haden texted, that is even worse.  Then SC goes to Boston College and loses.  Quite a little operation there.

I was impressed with Stanford's defense generally, and if they can settle on a halfback, the Cardinal might not be half bad.

I have also been impressed with Notre Dame QB Everett Golson, after a year off. Sometimes, he does not make the best move under the pressure of a rush, but he also does not do something really bad either.

And what is the big deal with the breaking of the Michigan-ND "rivalry"?  They have had breaks in the "rivalry" of 34 and 33 years, so more than 67 years of no Wolverine-Irish contests, yet the planets persist.  Hey Michigan, you can hang out in South Bend in 2047 or '48.

After North Dakota State goes to Iowa State and pounds them in Ames, one wonders how close NDSU is getting to merit talk that they are better than the Group of Five's best.  The computers already love them.

I saw that the McNeese State players, rather than their last name, all have "McNeese" plastered on their jersey backs.  Given my confusion when I saw the ushers at Chicago sporting events all with the name "Andy Frain" on their hats, certainly I would have thought McNeese were all kinfolk if I was a youngster.

I saw the B1G Ten TV commercial advertising deposits for tickets for the confernece championship game  "if your team makes it."  That is a brilliant way to pile up a bunch of deposit interest until December, and help ticket sales.  Fictionally, I am doing the same for the Semi-Finals in Atlanta and the BCS Championship in Arlington.  I bet the real life championship game will start the same deal, with the quick turnaround and potential long distance travel for fans dealing with a New Year's bowl game also.

This week, things are really tight in the BCS Standings.  Alabama, Oregon, and Oklahoma are all super tight, and being in top two is precious, as is Notre Dame - UCLA for the last at-large spot.  Notre Dame had quite a lead in the polls, but the Bruins get quite a bit of computer love.

BCS Standings - Week 3

1	Florida State	0.9652
2	Alabama	0.9002
3	Oregon	0.8978
4	Oklahoma	0.8916
5	Auburn	0.8639
6	Texas A&M	0.7989
7	LSU	0.7384
8	Baylor	0.6786
9	Notre Dame	0.5927
10	UCLA	0.5898
11	Ole Miss	0.5281
12	Michigan State	0.5056
13	South Carolina	0.4619
14	Georgia	0.4513
15	Arizona State	0.3867
16	Stanford	0.3404
17	Missouri	0.3248
18	Kansas State	0.2579
19	Wisconsin	0.2229
20	USC	0.2025
21	BYU	0.1699
21	Clemson	0.1394
23	Ohio State	0.1376
24	Nebraska	0.1359
25	Oklahoma State	0.0769

"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Adrian Peterson

IN- Baylor, Notre Dame; OUT-USC, Georgia

Projected tournament!

FIRST ROUND:

In Detroit:
7 Louisiana State
10 Michigan State

In New Orleans:
8 Baylor
9 Notre Dame 
 
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State
Baylor or LSU/Michigan State winner

Sugar: 
4 Oklahoma
5 Auburn

Fiesta:
2 Alabama
Michigan State or Baylor/Notre Dame winner

Rose: 
3 Oregon
6 Texas A&M

SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas

They will never retire the #12th man banner at Stanford; BCS Standings for Week 2

After seeing the pre-game enthusiasm that the Seahawks generate, it was a bit of a change to see a Stanford home game that felt like a neutral site.  Also, it was obvious the USC band knows how to play during a game, apparently Stanford's band feels like that would be beneath their band mission.  Yes, I can see how Ohio State fans buy up half the seats at IU and Purdue, but Stanford has been a BCS Bowl team, and are the current longest streak with four consecutive appearances in my tourney.

But another thing I have learned over the last four seasons, when I have concluded that the Stanford string of tourney appearances is over, they always  end up back.  No, I won't make any assumptions a
bout the Cardinal for a long time.

The Cardinal are out of the projections this week, and four teams have dropped out so far, two per week.  And although ranked teams generally avoid each other like the NFL avoids controversy, the benefits of playing a spotlight match-up are seen in the four teams that have climbed into the tourney.  A&M, Georgia, LSU, and USC all were winners in the rare match-ups that mattered, and it paid off, in their elevation.  Now South Carolina, Clemson, Wisconsin, and Stanford all dropped due to these same games,  but it may have been worth the risk.

1	Florida State	0.958742
2	Oregon	0.934068
3	Alabama	0.865634
4	Oklahoma	0.861287
5	Auburn	0.828631
6	Georgia	0.770333
7	Texas A&M	0.724204
8	LSU	0.698627
9	USC	0.658197
10	Baylor	0.607487
11	Notre Dame	0.568369
12	UCLA	0.560312
13	Ole Miss	0.477595
14	Michigan State	0.473989
15	Stanford	0.35357
16	Arizona State	0.31724
17	Virginia Tech	0.285971
18	Missouri	0.269215
19	Ohio State	0.215004
20	BYU	0.193
21	Wisconsin	0.19209
22	South Carolina	0.180168
23	Kansas State	0.135251
24	Louisville	0.131333
25	Clemson	0.113685

"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Roger Goodell

IN- LSU, USC; OUT-Stanford, Ohio State

Projected tournament!

FIRST ROUND:

In Detroit:
7 Texas A&M
10 Michigan State

In New Orleans:
8 Louisiana State
9 Southern California 
 
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State
LSU/USC winner or Michigan State

Fiesta: 
4 Alabama
5 Georgia

Rose:
2 Oregon
Texas A&M or LSU/USC winner

Sugar: 
3 Oklahoma
6 Auburn

SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas

Who will join the Big Five in the Big Six? Central Florida, Boise State, Houston, and Utah State stumble early

The season started just like we like it.  Every single one of the analysts predicts a South Carolina win, and Texas A&M walks onto enemy turf and shocks the Cocks.  That's college football.  I can't think of a sport that you really don't know who's up and who's down until they finally start to play.

Last week's pre-season tournament projection in some ways showed the cluelessness.  Of the ten tournament teams from last season, seven were in the pre-season projection.  It is the easiest thing to do, when in doubt, use last year as a guide.  The only three teams from last year's tourney that were out were Central Florida (so far, no team outside the Big Five is getting much respect), Baylor (who was ranked #11, so barely out), and Missouri.  Two of the three that were elevated (in addition to UCLA) were Oregon and Oklahoma, the last two teams out of the tourney selection last year and big winners in their bowl games.

So in real life, the best conference champion outside the Big Five conferences will make a Big Six bowl.  And if that champ makes the top 25, they will make my tourney also.  Yet some of the early favorites for this slot, Central Florida, Boise State, Houston, and Utah State, took it on the chin in week 1.  Marshall is a contender but they didn't blow out their opponent.  Cincinnati is the only team that earns any credence in the BCS Standings merely because they are in the top 25 of a computer poll, not nearly enough to get into the to 25.  So it will be interesting to track the contenders.  Northern Illinois starts a three week road swing to Northwestern, UNLV, and Arkansas, which certainly will test their strength going into conference season.

So here they are, week 2 of the BCS Standings and my ten team tournament projection:

BCS STANDINGS

1	Florida State	0.99377
2	Alabama	0.89892
3	Oregon	0.89566
4	Oklahoma	0.83252
5	Auburn	0.77189
6	Texas A&M	0.69349
7	Michigan State	0.69238
8	Ohio State	0.67482
9	Stanford	0.66840
10	Georgia	0.66336
11	LSU	0.64539
12	Baylor	0.63633
13	UCLA	0.63398
14	USC	0.49141
15	Ole Miss	0.32875
16	Notre Dame	0.32740
17	Kansas State	0.24635
18	Arizona State	0.20536
19	Wisconsin	0.20247
20	Nebraska	0.20213
21	South Carolina	0.18279
21	Washington	0.16000
23	Texas	0.14839
24	North Carolina	0.08042
25	Missouri	0.07387

 

"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Josh Shaw

IN- Texas A&M, Georgia; OUT-South Carolina, UCLA

Projected tournament!

FIRST ROUND:

In Detroit:
7 Michigan State
10 Georgia

In Cincinnati:
8 Ohio State
9 Stanford 
 
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State
Ohio State/Stanford winner

Sugar: 
4 Oklahoma
5 Auburn

Fiesta:
2 Alabama
Michigan State/Georgia winner

Rose: 
3 Oregon
6 Texas A&M

SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas