It's time! Stewart Mandel, Bruce Feldman, and I predict the results of my tournament

(actually, Stewart and Bruce makes picks for the real bowl games here and here, and I annually transform them into predictions for my playoffs; i.e., if the games turn out like they say, this is how my tournament will play out, for the First Round and BCS Bowl Quarterfinals, at least)

As part of Stewart Mandel's and Bruce Feldman's predictions of all of the bowl games this season, here are his predictions for the tournament's first round and quarterfinals. Over the last four seasons, Stewey (can I call ya Stewey?) has been 19-5 in these games. 

When real life expanded to a four team playoff, I like having more real game information for my simulated tournament, but kind of dreaded the idea that my Final Four would be their final four, my championship the same as their championship.  But I figured there could be crazy years when anything could happen.  And I could end up with the same Final Four, but if there is ever a year where my tourney can go a very different direction, it is this one.  A very vulnerable #2 seed, potenentially good #5 and #6 seeds, and dangerous #7 and #9 seeds.  I really only count out Boise State and to a lesser degree Michigan State at winning it all.  We shall see!  Let the games begin!


First Round - Salt Lake City: #7 Mississippi State versus #10 Boise State

On the surface, it would seem as if the Bulldogs were given quite a challenge.  Go out to Utah to play always dangerous Boise State, then if they win, play Florida State in Miami.  Inconvenient, yes; but actually this MSU has quite a nice path to the Football's Final Four.  For one thing, this is not your older brother's Boise State, that beat Oklahoma and Ohio State in 2006, or Cincinnati and Texas on the was to the championship game in 2009, or that lost a four overtime thriller to West Virginia in Pittsburgh in 2011.  Mississippi State may be cold in Salt Lake, but there three hours of being chilled will leave them with a trip to Miami and Florida State, the most vulnerable top two seed I can remember since BYU in 1985.

Stewart Mandel's pick: Mississippi State 47, Boise State 24

Bruce Feldman's pick: Mississippi State 45, Boise State 27

My pick: Mississippi State

First Round - Detroit: #8 Michigan State versus #9 Mississippi

Despite an impressive win last year to break Stanford's three year Rose Bowl win streak after not being in the tournament for about a generation, no one is talking about Michigan State this season.  Because although they get a boost playing Ole Miss in Detroit, even winning would send them to play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, not as promising as playing Florida State.  Bama generally takes care of business in the tournament, so Michigan State seems at best a one (win) and done.  Even the Rebels get more respect, as the first tournament team in history to be an at-large with three losses.  Why?  Because they are 3-0 against other tournament teams (Bama, Miss State, Boise), and could even give the Tide a bit nervous.  And possibly Mississippi can avoid Alabama if Boise State were to pull off a shocker.  The tournament wants a Michigan State win so no Alabama-Mississippi Sugar Bowl, but they won't be that lucky.

Stewart Mandel's pick: Michigan State 29, Mississippi 27

Bruce Feldman's pick: Michigan State 19, Mississippi 17

My pick: Mississippi 

Sugar Bowl: #1 Alabama versus Michigan State or Mississippi (Possibly Boise State)

Alabama may not have chalked up a lot of titles, but over their last four tournament appearances, they are 7-3.  And that is against the best college football has to offer.  Compare to Stanford's recent four year run (5-4) and Oregon's (4-4), and you appreciate the Tide's success.  They clean up at the Sugar Bowl, and should once again.

Stewart Mandel's pick: Alabama 31, Michigan State 19

Bruce Feldman's pick: Alabama 37, Michigan State 26

My pick: Alabama over Mississippi

Rose Bowl: #4 Ohio State versus #5 Texas Christian

Back in 2010-2011 during the Tressel era, the #6 Buckeyes beat the #3 Horned Frogs and Andy Dalton in a 31-30 thriller.  Four years later, it is time for payback.  Both teams are dangerous, and this could be a dandy unless Cardale Jones falters in his second big game.  TCU wants their first tourney win, especially since the championship game in 20 miles from campus.  It can go either way, but it seems like TCU's turn.

Stewart Mandel's pick: Texas Christian 25, Ohio State 20

Bruce Feldman's pick: Texas Christian 33, Ohio State 27

My pick: Texas Christian

Orange Bowl: #2 Florida State versus Mississippi State (possibly Mississippi or Boise State)

Teams love being on this side of the bracket because no Alabama over here and a very vulnerable second seeded Seminoles.   Stewart and Bruce like FSU more than I do.

Stewart Mandel's pick: Mississippi State over Florida State in 3 OTs

Bruce Feldman's pick: Florida State over Mississippi State in 1 OT

My pick: Mississippi State

Fiesta Bowl: #3 Oregon versus #6 Baylor

Baylor's offense is scary but last season as sixth seed, they had a bit of flop sweat losing to Alabama in the Fiesta in an ugly game, when their idea of pass defense was holding receivers and getting penalties rather than possible completed passes.  But Baylor remains dangerous, especially against a Duck team with a history of its own flop sweat.  I just think Oregon will be too explosive and be able to answer any Bears run.


Stewart Mandel's pick: Oregon over Baylor in 1 OT

Bruce Feldman's pick: Baylor 37, Oregon 35

My pick: Oregon


SEMI-FINALS:
Stewart Mandel: Alabama vs TCU; Mississippi State vs Oregon
Bruce Feldman: Alabama vs TCU; Florida State vs Baylor
My picks: TCU over Alabama; Oregon over Mississippi State (TCU over Oregon in the championship)

Quick, the 2015 College Football Tournament Selection Show is on!

And now live from the ESPN studios, it's the BCS College Football Tournament Selection Show presented by Wise Guys Pizza, with Rece Davis, Lou Holtz, and Mark May.

RECE: Well, the regular season is over and now the fun part begins.  Soon, we will learn the ten teams that will be part of the 2014-2015 College Football Tournament.  The big surprise over the past two days was, that there were no big surprises.  The higher ranked teams all won, even when they were underdogs, as in the case of Ohio State.   So the big question is who will get the at-large bids and the Group of Five bid.  

So here is what we know, five teams are in, Oregon, Alabama, Baylor, Florida State, and Ohio State.  The top ranked Group of Five champion in the BCS top 25 will get an automatic bid, and we expect that to be Boise State.  So, who will be the four at-large teams among contenders such as one-loss TCU, two loss Michigan State and Mississippi State, and three loss teams Mississippi, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Arizona, Missouri.  Probably not Wisconsin or Georgia.

MARK:  Yes, TCU is definite, the two MSU's will likely be in it.  And going with a three loss at-large team is unprecedented in this tournament.  The closest the tournament ever came to a three loss at-large bid before was way back when Doug Flutie's miracle pass put Boston College in the tournament and knocked out the Miami Hurricanes by giving them a fourth loss.

LOU: That's right Mark, there are two MSU's.  Golly that's going to make it easy to pick, I will just say MSU and people won't be sure who I mean, that's funny.  Guys, I really like Georgia Tech for that last spot.  They went into the ACC Championship with two losses, gave Florida State the only close game of the entire gosh darn weekend, and golly, that option offense would give defensive coordinators fits.  Also, don't forget Arizona.  They split with Oregon, and were the highest ranked of all of these three loss teams going into the weekend.  It seems fair to have two Pac-12 teams in the tournament. 

MARK: Coach, it will not be Arizona, they were shredded by Oregon and likely Heisman winner Marcus Mariota.  Oregon will have to carry the banner of the Pac-12, and they will do a masterful job.  And yes, Georgia Tech would keep some coaching staffs up nights studying their offense.  But it is going to be Mississippi in that last spot.  They are coming off a strong victory in the Egg Bowl, and gave Alabama their only loss.  If there is a dark horse, I say Kansas State.  They lost to TCU, Baylor, and Auburn, and selecting the Wildcats would make it a very good day for the Big XII.

RECE:  So guys, who do you see as the top two seeds in a very strong top six of five one loss teams and undefeated Florida State?

LOU: Well, Alabama and Florida State for sure.  The undefeated, defending national champion has to be at the top, and Alabama, well, they won the toughest division and the toughest conference. 

MARK:  Coach, I agree with you, but Oregon may be just as deserving to be in the top two, not because Alabama should not be, but Florida State just seems to struggle week to week.  The ACC Championship game was their chance to show the country they could dominate, and yet they could not.    


RECE:  And throughout the season, we have had our share of contenders for the spot for the top ranked Group of Five team.  During the season, for a while it looked like East Carolina, and then Marshall, but guys, now it has to Boise State, right?

MARK: Yes, Boise State will return to the tournament as tenth seed.  And if they had not won last night against Fresno State, I do not think another Group of Five team would have made the Top 25, so another at-large spot would have opened up. 

LOU: Rece, remember, as an automatic qualifier, Boise State will have the "regional advantage" in the First Round.  So some team like Michigan State, Mississippi State, those two MSU's, or Georgia Tech, will have to head west, maybe play in the mountains, at high altitude.  That is what I love about the tournament, the First Round games really take the tournament all over this great country, and play in real football weather.  Gosh, I just can't wait to find out who will play who in this tournament.

RECE: Well, Coach, time for us the find out the brackets for this year's 2014-2015 BCS college football tournament, so we go to Brent Musburger at AT&T Stadium. Brent, take it away...

BRENT:  You are looking...LIVE at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas, and the site of this season's championship game.  Hi there everybody, ten teams will play to win here, and take home the BCS championship trophy. And now, it is time for the Dean's TruMoo Chocolate Milk bracket presentation. Let's go to tournament Commissioner Nelson, who will reveal this year's tournament. Commissioner..."

COMMISIONER: Thank you Brent. It is my yearly pleasure to announce the teams that will be playing in the 2013-2014 BCS College Football Tournament.


In the First Round, in Salt Lake City, the seventh seed, the Bulldogs of the Mississippi State University, an SEC at-large, will play the tenth seeded Boise State University Broncos, champions of the Mountain West.

The other First Round game will be played in Detroit, where the eighth seed and at-large representative of the Big Ten Conference, the Spartans of Michigan State University, will take on the ninth seed, and at-large team from the Southeastern Conference, the University of Mississippi Rebels.

  

So let's move onto the BCS Bowl quarterfinals. Either Michigan State, Boise State, or Mississippi will move on to the Sugar Bowl, to play the top seed, the Crimson Tide of  the University of Alabama, champion of the Southeastern Conference. 

The winner of the Sugar Bowl, will take on the winner of the Rose Bowl, which will feature the fourth seed, champion of the Big Ten conference, the Buckeyes of the Ohio State University, and fifth seeded at-large from the Big XII Conference, the Horned Frogs of Texas Christian University.
 

Either Mississippi State, Mississippi, or Boise State will move on to the Orange Bowl, to play the number two seed, and champion of the Atlantic Coast Conference, the defending champion Seminoles of Florida State University.

The Orange Bowl winner will take on the winner of the remaining quarterfinal game, the Fiesta Bowl, which will feature the third seed, champion of the Pac-12 Conference, the University of Oregon Ducks, who will play the sixth seed, champion of the Big XII conference, the Bears of Baylor University.

The winners of the BCS quarterfinals will meet in Atlanta for Football's Final Four, and the winner of the semi-finals will play for the BCS championship, right here, in Arlington, Texas.

BRENT: Thank you Commissioner, it shapes up to be yet another exciting tournament. Two questions.  What was the bubble team that was closest to make the field, and secondly, there is a provision to avoid rematches between teams that played during the season, yet it is possible Alabama will face Mississippi State in the Sugar Bowl.  How did that occur?  

COMMISH:  First, Arizona was the tenth team in our standings, but particularly because of their computer rankings, were far behind Mississippi for the last at-large slot.  We do avoid regular season rematches during the First Round and Quarterfinal Bowls, and we could have held out Baylor to possibly play Alabama if need be.  However, we felt Baylor deserved top six consideration to not play a top two seed, so we decided to allow an Alabama-Mississippi game if both teams from the Magnolia State win. 

BRENT:  Thank you Commissioner, and now back to Rece at the studio.

(microphones pick up unsuspecting continuing conversation)

BRENT: Good job Commissioner. You did fine.

COMMISH:  I hope I looked okay, I forgot to clean my glasses and they are filthy.

BRENT:  Oh no, you looked fine.  And thank you for allowing me to continue hosting this presentation.  I was not sure if you would after ESPN shipped me off to SEC Network oblivion.  My relatives back home do not even receive that channel.

COMMISH:  No Brent, you will always have a place on this show.  

BRENT: Thank you Commissioner.  The one good thing I thought might happen would be Jesse Palmer might introduce me to "The Bachelor" people, and I could have a spot interviewing the young ladies on that show.   But Jesse keeps telling me he forgot their telephone number at home, every week.  

(back to the studio)

RECE: So, there it is.  Three SEC teams in.  Arizona did not make the cut.  And Mississppi State and Mississippi make their first tournaments, but they have to travel to Salt Lake City and Detroit, respectively.  Coach, your thoughts? 

LOU: Yes, I love it.  The top two are Florida State and Alabama, a possible rematch of last season's championship.  I think it is pretty wide open this year, the winner can come from anywhere.   

MARK: I think it will be a great tournament.  Your right coach, except for Boise State there is not really a team I am discarding as one that could emerge as national champion.  But I think it will be tough for Ohio State, with a new quarterback, to string three wins together, especially with Alabama on their side of the bracket.

LOU: But anything is possible Mark!

RECE:  So this is the ninth season of the ten-team era, and Alabama and Ohio State have been in the tournament, six, yes, six times over that period of time.  Mississippi State and Ole Miss are first timers in the tournament, but five of the ten teams were in last season's tournament, plus Boise State, Texas Christian, and Oregon have been regulars.

MARK:  This year, Stanford did not make the tournament, breaking their four year run.  The current longest string is Alabama, now with four.  And it shows how there is systematic turnover over time, maybe not yearly, to think of when Alabama's four year run started.  The other teams in that tournament included LSU, Oklahoma State, Stanford, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Clemson.  So maybe, we don't see year to year turnover, but teams go through some periods of rising to the top.  All those team I mentioned can vouch for the fact that it is hard to get back there.

LOU: Plus, Mark, you discard Boise State, but there is a pretty good chance their First Round game will be a thriller.  Boise's other two First Round games were their thrilling win over Oklahoma in 2006, and their four overtime loss to West Virginia in Pittsburgh in 2011. So I am looking forward to those MSU Bulldogs playing in Salt Lake City, it's gonna be a heck of a ball game.  Plus, like Mark said, if someone wants me to make a pick, I will just say, look out for MSU, because there are two of them. Ha!

RECE: It will be a great set of games, we are so lucky we do not have to have a two team or four team tournament.  A true champion will earn it on the field.  So let's review the tournament...

First Round:

Salt Lake City: #7 Mississippi State (at-large) versus #10 Boise State (Mountain West Champ)

Detroit: #8 Michigan State (at-large) versus #9 Mississippi (at-large)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Sugar: #1 Alabama (SEC Champ) versus Boise State, Michigan State, or Mississippi

Rose: #4 Ohio State (Big Ten Champ) versus #5 Texas Christian (at-large)

Orange: #2 Florida State (ACC Champ) versus Mississippi State, Michigan State, or Boise State

Fiesta: #3 Oregon (Pac-12) versus #6 Baylor (Big XII Champ)

Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in Atlanta

National Championship in Arlington, Texas

RECE: It should be a great great tournament. For the Hall of Famer, Lou Holtz, and Mark May, good night from the ESPN studios

Oregon's in! Saturday of college football drama will fill in the rest!

Yes, the final day of the college football regular season is here (well, to be fair, there is Army-Navy) and the pieces of the puzzle will begin to fall into the ten team tournament.  Fifteen teams start the day with a chance, and it will soon be down to ten.

So there are the guaranteed slots are:

-Oregon
-Alabama-Missouri winner
-Florida State-Georgia Tech winner
-Ohio State-Wisconsin winner
-Baylor, Texas Christian, or Kansas State
-Boise State if they win the Mountain West

And then there will be the four teams awaiting on the bubble for an at-large slot:

Michigan State
Mississippi State
Mississippi
Any team above that loses (except Boise State)

Let's see what happens!