Saturday, January 30, 2010

Upcoming Locales for Semi-Finals and Championship Games

Ah, the wonder of a blog as a place for idea storage. I have been keeping this list of future semi-final sites for my tourney in my head for a while, so it will be good to free up some brain cells for real life knowledge. Once I hit 'save,' I will be just like when the Scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz gets a diploma, "The sum of the square roots of any two sides of an isosceles triangle is equal to the square root of the remaining side. Oh joy! Rapture!".....

2010-2011
Semi-Finals: St. Petersburg, FL
Championship: Glendale AZ

2011-2012
Semi-Finals: St. Louis, MO
Championship: New Orleans, LA

2012-2013
Semi-Finals: Arlington, TX
Championship: Miami, FL

2013-2014
Semi-Finals: Indianapolis, IN
Championship: Pasadena, CA

2014-2015
Semi-Finals: Atlanta, GA
Championship: Glendale AZ

2015-2016
Semi-Finals:Minneapolis, MN
Championship: New Orleans, LA

2016-2017
Semi-Finals: San Antonio, TX
Championship: Miami, FL

2009-2010 Final Results

FIRST ROUND:

In Seattle:
7 Oregon 17
10 Iowa 24

In Cincinnati:
8 Ohio State 27
9 Georgia Tech 14

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals)

Sugar
1 Alabama 37
8 Ohio State 21

Rose
4 Texas Christian 10
5 Florida 29

Fiesta
2 Texas 23
10 Iowa 21

Orange
3 Cincinnati 24
6 Boise State 38

Semi-finals in Syracuse

1 Alabama 20
5 Florida 42

2 Texas
29
6 Boise State
31

BCS Championship in Pasadena January 30th

5 Florida 47
6 Boise State 10

National Champions! Florida Beats Boise State 47-10

Five teams entered the college post-season undefeated, but none remained at the end of the post-season, as Florida gunned down their third straight unsolved opponent. Florida controlled the clock and harassed Boise State quarterback Kellen Moore during their rare moments without the ball, and easily defeated the Broncos 47-10 in Pasadena.

In less than three minutes, Florida scored off their first possession of the game on a 35 yard Tebow TD pass to take the early lead. Boise State gave the ball right back to the Gators on an interception, and Florida proceeded to complete another TD drive in less than three minutes to take a 14-0 lead.

Florida took a 21-0 lead after a five minute plus drive early in the second quarter. A Bronco field goal finally removed their goose egg, but the Gators answered before halftime to take a 24-3 lead. A Gator punt return for touchdown in the third quarter preceded the Broncos first break of the goal line plane, and a subsequent Gator field goal made it 34-10 entering the final quarter.

Two more fourth quarter Florida touchdowns, and it was all over except for the pouring of the Gatorade over Urban Meyer's head. Florida is king of the college football world with a 47-10 win over the Broncos. Boise State left disappointed, but with their eyes on a return trip with all but one starter returning.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Look Who's Left: Florida and Boise State Countdown to Saturday Championship

Two left handed quarterbacks, two teams that knocked off two undefeated teams each to get there, and lots of orange and blue. Put it all in a Rose Bowl and stir, and you have a championship college football game. Florida, who knocked off TCU and conference foe Alabama is ready to let Urban hip-hop to a brief leave. Boise State knocked off Cincinnati and Texas, and is ready to upstage all of the automatic qualifiers.

With the big discussion this year in the NFL regarding teams rolling over to keep healthy for the playoffs, one might wonder if the same thing might happen in a college tourney situation. For instance, undefeated Alabama and Florida played in the SEC championship in a huge match-up to determine who would make the BCS championship. Would a playoff have produced the same intensity?

1) No more tears: I think in my playoff scenario, the post-game tears of the losers, and maybe even the chest pains of Urban Meyer would have been avoided. Basically, the loser knew they were an at-large team in the tourney, and the quest for number 1 was not Gone with the Wind with a loss in Atlanta.

2) Still play all out for top seed: But I think there would still be incentive to win that game, so that it would not become a game of second stringers playing out the season. Alabama's win gave them top seed, a chance to play the eight or nine seed, and to stay closer to home at the Sugar Bowl. The loser would drop to another location to play a higher seed.

Now this season, that didn't seem so bad. In my mythical fun, I had Florida as five seed and travelling to Pasadena to play TCU. In hindsight, that seemed pretty cushy, and not much worse than Alabama playing Ohio State in New Orleans. But the previous season, I had Alabama losing the SEC championship and being sentenced to play USC (from LA not Strom Thurmond's home state) in Pasadena, and projected a Trojan whipping. Meanwhile, Florida got to play 10th seed Virginia Tech in the SuperDome, and leave with a pretty easy win.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Updated tourney results

FIRST ROUND:

In Seattle:
7 Oregon 17
10 Iowa 24

In Cincinnati:
8 Ohio State 27
9 Georgia Tech 14

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals)

Sugar
1 Alabama 37
8 Ohio State 21

Rose
4 Texas Christian 10
5 Florida 29

Fiesta
2 Texas 23
10 Iowa 21

Orange
3 Cincinnati 24
6 Boise State 38

Semi-finals in Syracuse

1 Alabama 20
5 Florida 42

2 Texas
29
6 Boise State
31

BCS Championship in Pasadena January 30th

5 Florida
6 Boise State

Semi-Finals: Have no fear, underdogs Florida and Boise State soar into championship game

Orange was the color of the day in Syracuse as the home orange of the Orange was highlighted with the winning orange of Florida and Boise State. Burnt orange of Texas was close, but not good enough.

Semi-Final Game #1: Florida 42, Alabama 20

The surprise of the SEC championship game was not that Alabama won, but how easily it went down. A little more than a month later, again, Florida winning was not the main surprise, but that it was not close was a bit of a shock. Urban Meyer's leave will have to wait for one more game.

The game started according to script, with Bama taking the lead midway through the first half with QB Greg McElroy scoring a one-yard run, for a 7-0 lead. Florida matched that with their own drive capped by a one-yard run to tie the game. The tide changed at the end of the first frame, when the normally fumble free Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram fumbled for the first time this season, and the Gators ran it in 30 yards to take the 14-7 lead at the end of the first frame.

The Gators seemed to take control, and the only scoring of the second and third quarters were a Tim Tebow TD pass per quarter, to give the 28-7 lead going into the final frame. Tebow's final TD pass with 13 minutes to play gave the Gators a 35-7 lead, and the Crimson fans started the long walk up the stairs of the Carrier Dome. By the end, it was a 42-20 victory, and the Gator fans would rejoice and watch the following game to learn the identity of their Pasadena championship game foe. There would be no need for chest pains after this easy victory.

Semi-Final Game #2: Boise State 31, Texas 29

With Colt McCoy on the sidelines, and Garrett Gilbert at the helm, Texas went into their match-up trying to play to their strengths, but in the end, critical mistakes and Boise State's capitalization upon them ended the Longhorns undefeated season. On the first series of the game, Gilbert threw an interception on 3rd and 9, and the Broncos started on the Texas 30-yard line. The Broncos also found themselves with 3rd and long on their first series, but Kellen Moore's 30-yard TD pass to Austin Pettis gave Boise State the early lead. Both teams settled into their games, and the lead see-sawed throughout the first half, with Texas entering halftime with a 24-17 lead.

The third quarter offense was all Boise State, with two touchdowns, including Pettis' third TD reception of the game. The only scoring the Longhorns could muster was a safety, and the Broncos entered the last quarter with a 31-26 lead. Texas kicked an early fourth quarter field goal to get within 31-29. But a long fourth quarter possession that ended in a missed field goal for Boise State ate up most of the clock, and the Longhorns never returned to Boise State territory, with the last Texas possession ending turning it over on downs.

Five teams started the tournament undefeated, but only the Broncos remain so, and they will put their record on the line against Florida on January 30th.

Would Colt McCoy be back for the next round of playoffs?

After his injury in the BCS championship game against Alabama, Colt McCoy and his dad have reported that he is going to be 100% fine after two weeks of rehab in California, and that he will be ready for the NFL Combine in February (yeah, it's a college football playoff that would keep players from going to class).

So if there was a tournament, I wonder if Colt would be back for the semi-finals. Since the season was over, it seems like the McCoy's took the time to get proper diagnoses, etc, and things would have been a bit more rushed if it was during the season, much less a playoff situation.

But based on the two week rehab thing, I bet Colt would be "doubtful" for a semi-final game versus Boise State, and likely for the championship game at the end of the month.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Never too early to think about next year's tourney

The one thing that comes out after the BCS championship or NCAA hoops championship is the inevitable first stab at the next season's rankings. ESPN.com cooperated, so here is the first projected college football tourney brackets for the 2010-2011,

First round:

#7 Texas Christian versus #10 Cincinnati. Are the Bearcats willing to try this again? Maybe they will refuse and ask to be in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. For my tourney rules, this match-up makes me think who would "regional advantage" and if I should clarify my position. TCU will officially be an at-large team (because Boise State gets the automatic bid, they are #3), and Cincy is the automatic Big East champ bid. So if I leave my rules as is, this will be played someplace like Lexington, Louisville, Indy, Columbus. If I anticipate Congress thinking I am anti-mid majors, then TCU will get regional ad and the game will be in, maybe, Austin, Waco, Houston.


#8 Nebraska versus #9 Iowa. There was a time when teams would come and go in my tourney, but Nebraska was there come heck or high water. Huskers, we miss you! (not really, I always thought Nebraska fans were spoiled expect to be so good when they rely on CA and TX talent at their skill positions). Iowa would return to the tourney, and this would be one great battle of neighbor states. I would probably play the game in Kansas City.

BCS Bowls:

SUGAR: #1 Alabama versus Nebraska/Iowa winner. Superdome folks would be drooling, literally (so shore up those levies) to have teams with such fan bases.

ROSE: #4 Oregon versus#6 Virginia Tech. My "no first game re-matches" made me switch VTU to this game because Boise State will play the Hokies in the regular season next fall. ACC is happy to get a serious football school back in the tourney, and Ducks hope to redeem themselves.

ORANGE: #2 Ohio State versus TCU/Cincinnati winner. Rose Bowl would pass on this game because TCU just played there, and OSU-Cincy would seem like such a regional match-up. But Miami will happily welcome Buckeye fans to their fair city.

FIESTA: #3 Boise State versus #5 Texas. Maybe this will be the new match-up that always seems to pop up in my tourney, like Miami-Oklahoma was for a while, LSU-USC then came up repeatedly, etc.

There was a time when Florida, Miami, and Florida State seemed like such regulars in my tourney, and too avoid re-matches, sometimes it was a challenge to bracket them. So now, I have my first semi-finals in St Petersburg FL, and will there be no Florida schools involved?

BCS Championship will be in Arizona, University of Phoenix stadium. Maybe the players will be able to use the U of Phoenix facilities to study for their classes.

Semi-Finals Set for January 16th in Syracuse

The Carrier Dome in Syracuse is set to host Football's Final Four on Saturday January 16th. One interesting thing I learned about the Carrier Dome is that it is not air conditioned even though its corporate sponsor is a cooling company. Remind me not to attend any early season Orange games there, while sitting next to a perspiring shirtless guy covered in orange face and body paint. But air conditioning would be the least of their worries this time of year, although I think it would be a pretty hot ticket. Although a long way from 'Bama, Gainesville, Austin, and Boise, I think each team would send a good deal of fans, as they are all known to "travel well."

Other things I learned about Syracuse U? They have a satellite campus in, ... Los Angeles? I bet they started that to try to steal more recruits from UCLA ("Yeah, and off season you can 'study' at our Los Angeles satellite campus"). Also, before they were Orange or Orangemen, Syracuse was the "Saltine Warriors." I bet they changed it just to avoid obvious sport section headlines ("Saltine Warriors Crumble"). I wonder if the Indiana State "Fighting Teachers" ever played the Syracuse Saltine Warriors.

My results for the first round and BCS bowl quarterfinals are based on actual performances of the teams. The results for the semi-finals and finals will be based on probability of winning that I calculated using computer ratings, and how teams varied from their computer ratings in the non-BCS bowl games from this year.

I'd have a lot more gridiron cred if I just gave the favorites the wins (Bama beats Florida; Texas beats BSU; then, Bama beats Texas), because my tournament would seem so logical. If Texas or Boise win it all, it will look stupid (rotten face validity), but we really don't know who'd stay healthy, who'd be hot, etc. My tourney would always seem most accurate if the champ magically turned out to the the BCS champ, but if that were the case, why would I need my tourney?

The probability of winning the semi-final games are:

Alabama 62.5%
Florida 37.5%

Texas 57.1%
Boise State 42.9%

The probability of BCS Championship Game match-ups are:

Alabama-Texas 35.7%
Alabama-Boise State 26.8%
Florida-Texas 21.4%
Florida-Boise State 16.1%

The chances of winning the tourney:

Alabama 45.6%
Florida 23.8%
Texas 19.0%
Boise State 11.6%

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Updated tourney results

FIRST ROUND:

In Seattle:
7 Oregon 17
10 Iowa 24

In Cincinnati:
8 Ohio State 27
9 Georgia Tech 14

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals)

Sugar
1 Alabama 37
8 Ohio State 21

Rose
4 Texas Christian 10
5 Florida 29

Fiesta
2 Texas 23
10 Iowa 21

Orange
3 Cincinnati 24
6 Boise State 38

Semi-finals in Syracuse

1 Alabama
5 Florida

2 Texas

6 Boise State


BCS Championship in Pasadena

Sugar Bowl: Frankly Scarlet, Crimson Too Much for Buckeyes, 37-21

In the first quarter, the eight seed Ohio State Buckeyes showed they deserved to be on the same field as the top seeded Alabama Crimson Tide. The Buckeye defense was strong and gave quarterback Tide quarterback Greg McElroy fits, and held the vaunted running attack quiet in the first quarter. The Tide was held scoreless during the first 15 minutes, but their defense also is powerful, and the Buckeyes were also at zero.

In the second quarter, the Tide running tandem of Heisman winner Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson both broke TD runs to allow Alabama fans to breathe a sigh of relief. Alabama ended the half ahead 14-0.

In the third quarter, both offenses seemed to open it up a bit, and the Tide held a 24-14 lead with 15 minutes of regulation left. The Buckeyes played respectably but could not keep up with Alabama, who finished with a 37-21 victory. On tap for the Tide, a rematch against Florida in the Syracuse semi-finals.

Fiesta Bowl: Backup QB Passes Hawkeye Test; Texas Survives 23-21

Texas came into the Fiesta Bowl with lingering questions, but found a big new issue in the first quarter against Iowa. After almost losing in the Big XII conference championship to Nebraska, the Longhorns jumped out early and aggressively to a 10-0 lead on the Hawkeyes in the first quarter. But they also lost their star quarterback Colt McCoy to injury.

Iowa responded with a touchdown drive in the second quarter, and a interception return for touchdown on an ill-advised pass by backup QB Garrett Gilbert to take a 14-10 lead. The Longhorns looked anemic as Gilbert struggled in the spotlight.

In the second half, the Texas defense stiffened, and Gilbert found his rhythm, including a touchdown pass to take a 17-14 lead, and the score remained the same at the end of the third quarter. A late Gilbert fumble gave Iowa field position to score a touchdown to make it interesting, with the Horns hanging to a 23-21 lead. Texas held on to win, and survive to play another round.

The Longhorns move onto Syracuse, where they will face the undefeated Boise State Broncos.

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Updated tourney results

FIRST ROUND:

In Seattle:
7 Oregon 17
10 Iowa 24

In Cincinnati:
8 Ohio State 27
9 Georgia Tech 14

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals)

Sugar
1 Alabama
8 Ohio State

Rose
4 Texas Christian 10
5 Florida 29

Fiesta
2 Texas
10 Iowa

Orange
3 Cincinnati 24
6 Boise State 38

Semi-finals in Syracuse

BCS Championship in Pasadena

Cincinnati First Round: Buckeyes Make Yellow Jackets Blue 27-14

Late in the season, Georgia Tech was cruising, looking at a likely top six finish and appearance in a BCS quarterfinal bowl. But a trip to Athens and a big loss to Georgia provided greater punishment than Zeus might deliver from Mount Olympus. Rather than a trip to a sunny bowl to play UCincinnati, the Yellow Jackets dropped to ninth seed, and a journey north to Cincinnati to play Ohio State in hostile territory.

And the Cincinnati home cooking might sooth the rumbling tummies of Buckeye Nation, hungry for tournament success. Ohio State last season found itself outside the tournament, and the previous two seasons lost Rose Bowls as the top seed to upstarts Boise State and West Virginia. Coach Jim Tressel and quarterback Terrelle Pryor looked to change their fortunes and find a way to play top seed Alabama and play the upstart role.

The Buckeyes took advantage of their size and strength on both sides of the line, and an efficient running and passing Pryor provided a first quarter lead of 14-0. The Yellow Jackets scored in the 2nd but trailed at halftime, 17-7.

Georgia Tech's offensive style and the physical strength of the OSU defense made a Yellow Jacket comeback difficult, as they seemed limited in their ability to pass for substantial gains. Both teams were scoreless in the third, but Ohio State and Pryor controlled the fourth quarter and won easily 27-14. Now it is the Buckeyes turn to try and ruin the national championship dreams of Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

Seattle First Round: Hawkeyes Pierce Oregon 24-17

After a long lay-off for Iowa and a longer layoff for its top quarterback, one might expect Iowa to start slowly against high-powered Oregon, showing some rust in drizzly Seattle. Not even Lewis and Clark would have predicted seeing Oregon trail, but Iowa jumped to an early lead. Only a lost fumble and interception kept Iowa from totally dominating the first quarter, and the quarter ended with only a 7-0 lead.

Oregon showed life in the second quarter, and pulled within 14-10 at halftime. Iowa toyed with the Ducks like Hawkeye from MASH flirted with nurses. Streaks of Iowa offensive perfection would be ruined by turnovers, and spells of Duck defensive stops and Hawkeye penalties would be saved by daring completions by Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi. Iowa continued to lead 21-17 going into the last quarter.

In the end, it was the Ducks who toyed with their fans and flirted with disaster. A red zone fumble by running back LeGarrette Blount and a key missed field goal broke the hearts of Oregon faithful in the fourth quarter. Key clutch first down runs during the final minutes by Hawkeye back Brandon Wegher sealed the 24-17 victory.

Iowa moves on to meet second seed Texas in the Fiesta Bowl.

Since the increase of the tournament to ten teams from eight, and the resulting inception of the first round games, Big Ten schools have played in four of the eight play-in contests. With Ohio State and Iowa winning on this day, and Wisconsin (over Wake Forest) and Penn State (over Cincinnati) in previous seasons, the conference is now 4-0 in first round games.

Updated tourney results

FIRST ROUND:

In Seattle:
7 Oregon
10 Iowa

In Cincinnati:
8 Ohio State
9 Georgia Tech

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals)

Sugar
1 Alabama
Ohio State/Georgia

Rose
4 Texas Christian 10
5 Florida 29

Fiesta
2 Texas
Oregon/Iowa

Orange
3 Cincinnati 24
6 Boise State 38

Semi-finals in Syracuse

BCS Championship in Pasadena

Rose Bowl: Too Much Tebow Buries TCU 29-10

Two teams new to New Year's grandest stage responded in very different ways in front of 100,000+ in Pasadena's Rose Bowl. Florida, used to playing in college football's biggest matches, responded like the champions they are. However, Texas Christian, in their first tournament appearance, showed their jitters, and by the time they found some composure, Tim Tebow and the Gators placed them in a hole too deep to emerge from.

Tebow's 80 yard touchdown pass stunned the Horned Frogs and rocked Gator Nation, and an interception return for a TD off an Andy Dalton pass contributed to a 23-0 Gator lead. Dalton responded with a TD pass before the half ended, to cut the lead to 23-7 and provide TCU a glimmer of hope. But in the second half, the Horned Frogs offense continued to sputter , and Florida was never threatened.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Orange Bowl: Broncos Bust the Bearcats 38-24

Three seasons ago, Boise State needed razor thin victories over college football powerhouses Oklahoma and Ohio State to make Football's Final Four. This season, the Broncos needed a single victory over an unsettled Cincinnati team in the Orange Bowl to make their return to the semi-finals seem relatively simple.

The Bearcats, who lost 21-10 to Penn State in last season's first round, started this game with another listless performance. Boise State, known for their offense, started the game with a defense that stayed in Bearcat QB Tony Pike's face, yielding him ineffective early.

In the second half, the Bearcats began putting points on the board, but their defense could not make the stops to threaten Boise State. The Broncos take their undefeated record to Syracuse to play the Fiesta Bowl winner, while Cincinnati loses their first game of the season. With their coach moving onto Notre Dame, how soon the Bearcats will return to the college tourney will be the question in Cincy after another disappointing loss.

Friday, January 1, 2010

Let the games begin!!

Why is New Year's Day my favorite day of the year? When you can wake up and watch the Rose parade, which is so enjoyable in itself, but when you add Robb Weller seemingly a little irritated that he had to share the HGTV booth with some young Australian dude, and Bob Eubanks seemingly a little "confused" at the end of the TLC version, it makes it all just SUPER worthwhile.

And then Northwestern and Auburn play on of my favorite games to watch this year, followed by Penn State and LSU playing in the mud. You have to love it!!

Seeing the countdown to the Rose Bowl is really getting me psyched. By Monday late, I will have the first results for my tournament because the results from the games in my playoffs (Cincinnati/Boise State and TCU/Florida) will be in. But I will track each game, like Oregon/Ohio State and ponder how that impacts my tourney.

Reflecting on the bowl games and how they would have impacted my tourney, the huge Nebraska shut-out over Arizona comes to mind. If Colt McCoy's pass out of bounds had a second more of oomph, Nebraska would have won the Big XII. In my tourney, the Huskers would have been seeded tenth with a first round game versus #7 Oregon. Given their convincing win over Arizona, one wonders if they would have advanced to play the #2 seed, probably Cincinnati. Based on the Huskers of Corn's performance, an extra second on McCoy's throw, and Nebraska might have been a solid contender to make the final four.

We shall know soon how Oregon and Ohio State will project in my tourney and what Georgia Tech and Iowa will need to do to beat them. Let the show begin!!

9:29p Update:

That is why the play the games! Bucks beat the Ducks 26-17. So things look good for the Big Ten in my tourney as of now. In the 8/9 game, OSU will beat Georgia Tech unless GTU beats Iowa by 17 or more. In the 7/10 game, Iowa will beat Oregon if the Hawkeyes win or lose by 5 or less. So if the Yellow Jackets breeze to a big 17+ victory, sadness will prevail in Big Ten land as both OSU and Iowa will go down.

10:34p Update:

Poor TCU! Horned Frogs are saying "thanks for nuttin'" to the Bearcats. In my 4/5 game, Florida is looking pretty good right now, and the Broncos of Boise State are licking their chops that they can get by Cincy in the 3/6 game and make it to the semi-finals, again!

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