The Semi-Finals: Strong second-half vortexes send Florida State (over Michigan State 38-14) and Alabama (over Auburn 21-13) to National Championship game

As Indianapolis readied itself to host the Semi-Finals, they finally thawed a bit from the record low temperatures and snow falls from earlier in the week.  Indy did not benefit from the spring-like weather when they hosted the Super Bowl, but at least it was not the frigid conditions when they last hosted Football's Final Four when OSU fans flocked to town to see Maurice Clarett and the Buckeyes face Georgia, after USC played Oklahoma in the other semi-final in January 2003.

This year's Semi-Finals featured top seed Florida State versus Big Ten champion Michigan State, and a rematch of the Iron Bowl, Auburn and Alabama.

GAME 1: Florida State 38, Michigan State 14

Spartans green enthusiastically was the dominant color in Lucas Oil Stadium on Semi-Final Saturday.  And they were bouncing with joy early in the game.
 
Michigan State drove 95 yards for a touchdown on its opening possession, topped by a 9 yard pass from Connor Cook to Tony Lippett.
 
Spartan fans cheered with delight, but soon there would be a dearth of MSU excitement, as the punting unit would get plenty of use as the Seminoles defense locked down, particularly the Michigan State rushing game.

The Seminoles' second punt to MSU was fumbled by the Spartans and recovered by FSU.  Florida State drove and Jameis Winston scored from the 1 yard line, to tie the score at 7-7.  Both teams were scoreless through the remainder of the half.

The third quarter featured two Michigan State punts sandwiching a Florida State touchdown drive on a pass from Winston to Devonta Freeman and FSU entered the last quarter with a 14-7 lead.

On the first play of the final frame, Karlos Williams ran it in from 3 and Florida State lead 21-7.  After yet another MSU punt, Florida State drove again and Winston hit Kelvin Benjamin from 34 yards out, and was in complete control, 28-7.  Spartans fans began to retreat to the damp outdoors, and Florida State coasted, 38-14 to advance to the championship, the fourth straight top seed that made the final game.  But which team from the state of Alabama will join them in Pasadena?

GAME 2: Alabama 21, Auburn 13

Iron Bowl II served as top billing in the double feature. However, though an intriguing game, it was more mistake filled than classic, perhaps as both teams knew that not only state bragging rights, but a chance at the big prize.

Scoring started with two Cade Foster field goals after his initial miss, and Alabama held the 6-0 lead.  Auburn also fumbled and missed a field goal attempt but then Nick Marshall ran it in from 1 yard out, and the Tigers held the 7-6 halftime lead.

After a Tiger turnover, Alabama took the lead back on a pass to Amari Cooper from A.J. McCarron, now up 13-7. 

With about 4 minutes left in the game, T.J. Yeldon scored for Alabama, and they added the 2 point conversion, and lead 21-7.  Auburn added a late TD, but missed the PAT and then Bama grabbed the onside kick, and Alabama advanced to the championship game 21-13.
  

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Updated tournament results:

FIRST ROUND:

In Cleveland:
7 Ohio State 35
9 South Carolina 40

In Tampa:
8 Missouri 41
10 Central Florida 40 

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State 34
8 Missouri 22

Rose: 
4 Michigan State 24
5 Stanford 20

Sugar:
2 Auburn 31
9 South Carolina 22

Fiesta: 
3 Alabama 45
6 Baylor 41

SEMI-FINALS in Indianapolis (January 11th):

1 Florida State 38
4 Michigan State 14

2 Auburn 13
3 Alabama 21

BCS Championship in Pasadena (January 25th):

1 Florida State
3 Alabama

What if there was a four team playoff in college football this year?

As Indianapolis digs out of snow and awaits temperatures that will not paralyze southern football fans as they de-plane in my pretend tournament world, what would this year's football post-season look like if there were a four team playoff in place?  Well, using my patent pending (pending I get off the couch and surf to find the paperwork) method of indirect comparisons under varying selection scenarios, here are the results:

2013 Scenario I, "The Condi": the four top teams are the criteria for selection

1. Florida State
2. Auburn
3. Alabama
4. Michigan State

RESULTS (assuming neutral site)

Florida State defeats Michigan State by 4
Auburn defeats Alabama by 12

(Note: despite the fact this is my Final Four, these will NOT be the results of my tourney! I will simulate them on Saturday)

2013 Scenario II, "The Osborne": conference champs get priority for selection

1. Florida State
2. Auburn
3. Michigan State
4. Stanford

RESULTS (assuming neutral site)

Florida State defeats Stanford by 8
Auburn defeats Michigan State by 1


And how about 2012?

2012 Scenario I, "The Condi": the four top teams are the criteria for selection

1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. Oregon

RESULTS (assuming neutral site)

Oregon defeats Notre Dame by 21
Alabama defeats Florida by 31

(Note: despite the fact this is my Final Four, these will NOT be the results of my tourney!)

2013 Scenario II, "The Osborne": conference champs get priority for selection

1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. Kansas State

RESULTS (assuming neutral site)

Kansas State defeats Notre Dame by 3
Alabama defeats Florida by 31

2013 Scenario III, "The ULTRA-Osborne": conference champs REALY get priority for selection

1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Kansas State
4. Stanford

RESULTS (assuming neutral site)

Stanford defeats Notre Dame by 8
Alabama defeats Kansas State by 24

Orange Bowl: Top seed Florida State overcomes slow start, defeats Missouri 34-22

Early in the Orange Bowl, all of the rules of thumb seemed to hold.  Heisman curses seemed to be in place, as Jameis Winston struggled.  SEC strength seemed exemplified as Missouri seemed poised to beat ACC champ Florida State.  But the Seminoles gained strength in their home state, and head to Indianapolis to face Big Ten champ Michigan State.


FSU seemed on track early, as Roberto Aguayo started the scoring with a field goal.  However, Missouri took control right away.  Their defense sacked Winston in the end zone in the first quarter, then the Tigers touchdown in the second gave Missouri a 9-3 lead, and a sense of momentum.  However, a risky Seminole fake punt lead to a FSU touchdown as Devonta Freeman ran it in from 3 yards out.  Florida State had the 10-9 advantage at break, but it seemed like Missouri would be there at the end.


FSU added a field goal for the only scoring in the third quarter, to be ahead 13-9 entering the final fifteen minutes.  As game as the Tigers were, the Seminoles hit their stride in the fourth, scoring three touchdowns, and outscoring Missouri 21-13.   Florida State moves on, and Missouri is the first SEC team to lose to a non-SEC team in this tournament, and Seminoles prevail 34-22.
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Updated tournament results:

FIRST ROUND:

In Cleveland:
7 Ohio State 35
9 South Carolina 40

In Tampa:
8 Missouri 41
10 Central Florida 40 

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State 34
8 Missouri 22

Rose: 
4 Michigan State 24
5 Stanford 20

Sugar:
2 Auburn 31
9 South Carolina 22

Fiesta: 
3 Alabama 45
6 Baylor 41

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis (January 11th):
1 Florida State
4 Michigan State

2 Auburn
3 Alabama

BCS Championship in Pasadena (January 25th):

Sugar Bowl: Auburn heads to Iron Bowl II, defeats South Carolina 31-22

Ninth seeded South Carolina came into their Sugar Bowl match-up with SEC champ Auburn looking to shake things up in the tournament brackets.  But Auburn never allowed the Gamecocks to get within arms length, and the Tigers head to another showdown with Alabama in the Semi-Finals in Indianapolis.

South Carolina's Elliott Fry started the scoring with a field goal in the first quarter, but Auburn responded.  Three touchdowns, a pass from Nick Marshall to Tre Mason in the first quarter, a Melvin Ray TD reception, and a Marshall TD run gave Auburn the 21-3 lead.  Two more SC field goals closed the gap to 21-9 by halftime.

Scoring ceased in the third, and Auburn was feeling like they were on their way to an Alabama rematch.  The Gamecocks cut it to nine but never closer, as Auburn won their second Sugar Bowl in four years, 31-22.  Iron Bowl II awaits in Indy!

First Round Cleveland: SEC-ond conference win of the day; South Carolina holds off Ohio State 40-35

Hours after and hours before Cleveland weather was in the low 60's, South Carolina's Gamecocks not only had to deal with Ohio State, but rainy conditions in the low 40's in their First Round game in Cleveland.  But the Gamecocks prevailed in a battle between two legendary UFlorida coaches, as Steve Spurrier's team won 40-35 over Urban Meyer's Buckeyes.

South Carolina's offense sputtered early but drives were saved by circus catches, despite the conditions, by Gamecock receivers.  USC started the scoring with a 39 yard Connor Shaw to Bruce Ellington to establish control.  OSU's Braxton Miller's 33 yard run answered to tie the game. 

But the Shaw-Ellington combination was hot on this cool day, this time, with QB Shaw as the receiver, and a 9 yard TD pass from Ellington put South Carolina up 14-7.  Late in the first frame, OSU scored as Shaw was tackled in the end zone, to cut the lead to 14-9. 

Shaw responded with another TD pass to Ellington, this time from 22 yard out, and the PAT failed for a 20-9 Gamecock lead.

In the last three and a half minutes of the first half, OSU QB Miller heated up the OSU faithful with a 57 yard pass to Jeff Heuerman (PAT was blocked), followed by a 3-yard run by the QB, and the Buckeyes were thinking Sugar Bowl with a 22-20 halftime lead. 

Ohio State continued their momentum with a Carlos Hyde TD 1-yard run in the third to extend the lead to 29-20.  But South Carolina did not fold, scoring on a Jerell Adams 3 yard pass from Shaw, and adding a field goal, to take the lead 30-29, as the teams and fans settled in for a fourth quarter battle.

A Buckeye TD pass from Miller to Hyde from 14 yards out gave OSU the lead back to OSU 35-30, but South Carolina went on a scoring string with a field goal followed by a Shaw 1 yard TD run, and the Gamecocks were up 40-35.

Ohio State had their chances, but Miller threw two devastating interceptions, and South Carolina held on.  Four SEC teams will play in the quarterfinals, and South Carolina will play Auburn in the Sugar Bowl, which is allowed because they did not play in the regular season.  Only the Michigan State-Stanford Rose Bowl can guarantee that the Final Four will not be filled with SEC teams.

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Updated tournament results:

FIRST ROUND:

In Cleveland:
7 Ohio State 35
9 South Carolina 40

In Tampa:
8 Missouri 41
10 Central Florida 40 

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State
8 Missouri

Rose: 
4 Michigan State 24
5 Stanford 20

Sugar:
2 Auburn
9 South Carolina

Fiesta: 
3 Alabama 45
6 Baylor 41


Semi-Finals in Indianapolis:
Orange Bowl winner versus Michigan State
Sugar Bowl winner versus Alabama

BCS Championship in Pasadena

First Round Tampa: Knight-mare ending for UCF; Mizzou wins on last minute fumble recovery run, 41-40

Central Florida looked all ready to pad the AAC's resume with a win over SEC division champ Missouri, and earn a trip downstate to the Orange Bowl to play top-seeded Florida State.  The Gatorade bucket was poised, all they needed was to hold on to their six point lead.  But then, the dream ended in a dramatic, Knight-marish turn.  All-SEC defensive end Michael Sam knocked the ball from the hands of UCF running back Storm Johnson, and Mizzou's Shane Ray picked it up and returned the fumble 73 yards for a game-winning, Tampa-shocking touchdown.

"All the drama you don't want as a coach in the fourth quarter," Missouri coach Gary Pinkel said. "We had a lot of adversity, and our team handled the adversity well and made the plays we needed to win. I wanted that Orange Bowl really bad, wanted it bad for them."

But certainly, tenth seeded Central Florida showed they belonged at this level of competition.  UCF started the scoring with on a Storm Johnson 11 yard TD scamper, to take the first lead of the game.  Missouri tied it up on a Henry Josey 3 yard run, and the first quarter ended 7-7.

Missouri brought in their backup QB to change things up, and scored on a Marcus Lucas 24 yard pass from Maty Mauk, and held a second quarter 14-7 lead.  UCF matched it on another Johnson TD run from the 2, to tie the game.  On the last play of the first half, Tiger kicker Andrew Baggett's 35 yard field goal gave Missouri the 17-14 lead at the break.

But Missouri's offense struggled in the third quarter, and UCF added two Shawn Moffitt field goals to take the 20-17 lead going into the final frame.

The sunny day in the 80's in Tampa was only just about to really heat up in the fourth quarter.  UCF kicked another field goal to extend the lead to six.  Missouri answered with a Henry Josey 25 yard run to take the 24-23 lead. 

All game, the Knights receivers excelled at maneuvering through traffic after the catch and blocking for their peers downfield, and this was key to UCF's next TD on Blake Bortles 50 yard pass to Rannell Hall to grab the lead back.  Missouri cut the lead on a Baggett 46 yard FG, and the UCF lead was 30-27.  UCF came back with another impressive Hall reception from Bortles from 34 yards out, and were ahead 37-27.    Another Knight field goal put Central Florida up by 13.  An UCF interception return for TD was called back on a controversial pass interference call, but UCF still seemed to have the game in hand. 

Josey's 16 yard run cut the lead to 40-34 with three minutes left, but UCF controlled the ball in the final minutes.  But with 55 seconds on the clock, Ray's fumble recovery run sent a shock wave through the crowd, as Missouri won a game on a finish that will go down in tournament history to match the Oklahoma-Boise State First Round masterpiece.

Missouri will play Florida State in the Orange Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl: Crimson Tide rides the wave of Baylor yellow flags; Bama barely wins 45-41

In the first quarter, Alabama seemed immune to the long standing third seed curse, but Baylor made it interesting in the fourth quarter, however Bear penalties hindered their upset dreams.  Alabama won the Fiesta Bowl 45-41 in a game with lots of passing, and the Tide move onto Indianapolis and the Semi-Finals.  Alabama will play in their fourth Final Four over the past five seasons.

Many thought Baylor might be a worthy challenger to the experienced Crimson Tide, however the Bears seemed tense early.  Alabama stormed to a quick touchdown in a four play drive highlighted by two McCarron to Amari Copper pass plays, and T.J. Yeldon ran it in from a yard out for the Alabama 7-0 lead.  Baylor early possessions were fruitless, and Alabama soon drove again, scoring to take a 14-0 lead and making it look easy.  However, a McCarron interception gave Baylor good field position, and they scored before the end of the first frame following a Lache Seastrunk run for 29 yards, and Bryce Petty ran it in from the 1,  and it was 14-7 Alabama to start the second. 

Alabama still looked dominant, as the Baylor secondary struggled with costly penalties and poor tackling.  AJ McCarron's 67 yard TD pass to DeAndrew White gave the Tide the 21-7 lead.

However Baylor took advantage of Alabama's own struggles in the secondary, as Bryce Petty hit Levi Norwood with a 30 yard TD strike, and Baylor cut the lead to 21-14.  Alabama scored on Cade Foster's field goal of 27 yards, to extend the lead to 24-14, however a McCarron interception positioned Baylor to score before the end of the half on a Bryce Petty rush of 13 yards, and Baylor was down only 24-21 at the break, despite the sense they were overmatched.

In the third quarter, both teams score a TD, first Bama on Derrick Henry's 43 yard run, answered again by Baylor on a Bryce Petty 1 yard run, as the final frame began with Alabama holding the 31-28 lead.

The fourth quarter scoring started with an excellent run by Derrick Henry on a pass from AJ McCarron, and the 61 yard TD pass gave Alabama the 38-28 lead.  Baylor answered, on a Glasco Martin 9 yard run, and the lead was back to 3.

With eight minutes left, Baylor had their best chance to take the lead or tie, but Bama's defense held, as their secondary knocked down a key third down Petty pass, and Baylor kicker Aaron Jones missed his attempt, and Baylor still trailed by 3.  Bama extended the lead back to 10, but a late McCarron fumble allowed Baylor to score a last minute TD on a Clay Fuller 9 yard TD reception from Petty, to narrow the lead to 45-41.

Alabama offense often looked sluggish in the second half, and their defense made key errors in the secondary, but in the end, Baylor could not overcome costly penalties and poor tackling, and the Tide prevailed, perhaps setting up Iron Bowl II in Indianapolis as they await the Sugar Bowl victor.

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Updated tournament results:

FIRST ROUND:

In Cleveland:
7 Ohio State
9 South Carolina 

In Tampa:
8 Missouri 
10 Central Florida 

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State
8 Missouri/Central Florida winner

Rose: 
4 Michigan State 24
5 Stanford 20

Sugar:
2 Auburn
7 Ohio State/South Carolina winner

Fiesta: 
3 Alabama 45
6 Baylor 41


Semi-Finals in Indianapolis:
Orange Bowl winner versus Michigan State
Sugar Bowl winner versus Alabama

BCS Championship in Pasadena

Rose Bowl: Spartan defense limits Stanford; Michigan State wins 24-20

Since the start of the season, numerous teams looked to represent the heartland in Indianapolis for the tournament Semi-Finals.  Teams like Notre Dame, Louisville, and Ohio State were considered the likely candidates, but it was Michigan State to be the first team to qualify for Football's Final Four, with a late season run to the fourth seed.

Unlike most 4/5 games, that look great on paper but are not close in actuality, Michigan State's comeback after two ten point deficits to win 24-20 was a solid fourth quarter battle, until Stanford turned the ball over on downs with about two-minutes to go.

Perhaps to be criticized for conservativeness, Stanford, in their fourth straight tournament, could not win a fourth straight Rose Bowl and a fourth straight trip to the Final Four.  The Cardinal's quick start looked like they were on their way to Andrew Luck country at Lucas Oil Stadium, but MSU's eventual stopping of the run and lack of reliable downfield passing make the Spartans look like a tournament threat.

Ahead of the Spartans will be the winner of the Orange Bowl, possibly Florida State, but no matter what, no one will be looking past the Michigan State team as they look to have a second big win in Indy this season.

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Updated tournament results:

FIRST ROUND:

In Cleveland:
7 Ohio State
9 South Carolina 

In Tampa:
8 Missouri 
10 Central Florida 

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State
8 Missouri/Central Florida winner

Rose: 
4 Michigan State 24
5 Stanford 20

Sugar:
2 Auburn
7 Ohio State/South Carolina winner

Fiesta: 
3 Alabama
6 Baylor


Semi-finals in Indianapolis:
Orange Bowl winner versus Michigan State
Sugar Bowl winner versus Fiesta Bowl winner

BCS Championship in Pasadena

It's time! Stewart Mandel of CNNSI predicts the results of my tournament

(actually, Stewart makes picks for the real bowl games, and I annually transform them into predictions for my playoffs; i.e., if the games turn out like he says, this is how my tournament will play out, for the First Round and BCS Bowl Quarterfinals, at least)

As part of Stewart Mandel's predictions of all of the bowl games this season, here are his predictions for the tournament's first round and quarterfinals. Over the last three seasons, Stewey (can I call ya Stewey?) has been 15-3 in these games. 


FIRST ROUND:

In Cleveland:
7 Ohio State 28
9 South Carolina 23

In Tampa:
8 Missouri 38
10 Central Florida 24


BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State 31
8 Missouri 15

Rose: 
4 Michigan State 14
5 Stanford 17

Sugar:
2 Auburn 20
7 Ohio State 16

Fiesta: 
3 Alabama 28
6 Baylor 26


Semi-finals in Indianapolis:
Florida State versus Stanford
Auburn versus Alabama

BCS Championship in Pasadena