Welcome to the 2017-2018 College Football Tournament selection show, sponsored by Portillo’s. Now to the ESPN Studios, with Rece Davis, Mark May, and Lou Holtz.
RECE: Welcome to our 2017-2108 College Football Tournament selection show, and welcome back guys. It’s my old pals Coach Lou Holtz and Mark May. How have you been doing guys?
LOU: Well Rece, I am so happy to be here with you fellas, I think we have a great tournament ahead of us, and I can’t wait to see what teams are selected and who goes where. It has been a pretty crazy year for college football, none of the Power Five teams are undefeated, and I think anything can happen this year.
RECE: And we started the weekend with fifteen teams that we thought would make the ten-team tournament. They were the twelve teams in the six conference games that could win to make it in, and some of those could lose and make it in as a wild card team, and three other teams we still thought could make it in as a wild card. Those teams are Alabama, Penn State, and Washington. So this past weekend, six teams controlled their own destinies and qualified, the Power Five champions USC, Georgia, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Ohio State. Plus the top ranked champion from the Group of Five conferences will automatically qualify, and that most certainly is undefeated Central Florida. So the teams that lost their conference championships and we believe to be out of contention for wild card spots are Stanford, Memphis, and most likely, TCU. So that leaves twelve teams out there, six conferences champions, and possible Wild Cards Alabama, Penn State, Washington, Auburn, Wisconsin, and Miami.
So Mark, it seems likely we can project the top five teams, correct?
MARK: Yes Rece, we see the top five seeds as Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State. And that is where the confidence ends, because who will fill out the other five seeds and where they are ranked is truly up for grabs, much more so than other years.
RECE: So coach, who do you see for that sixth seed, the final team that can avoid a First Round game?
LOU: I think it is going to be Central Florida, and I’ll tell you why. They are the only undefeated team but I think the important thing is that the computers will love them, because most of the computers don’t use final score, so Central Florida will really benefit from that. So watch for that.
MARK: Coach, I think it will be Wisconsin at the sixth seed. They are the remaining Power Five team with just one loss, plus, unlike the other conference championship teams that lost, they were in it until the end, whereas Auburn, Miami, and TCU all lost by a wide margin.
LOU: But Mark, Wisconsin has been criticized for their strength of schedule all year, and I think that will push them down to the First Round games.
RECE: And I think it will be USC in the sixth spot. A conference champion, with a very good strength of schedule. Look out for the Trojans.
So, I think we can all agree that two of the Wild Cards will be Alabama and Wisconsin. Mark, who will join them, Miami, Auburn, Penn State, or Washington?
MARK: I think it will be Auburn and Penn State. Auburn’s high ranking before the SEC championship, plus they played four games against the top four teams in the country, I think that will give Auburn the nod for one spot. The other will be Penn State, they are well positioned to make it in with two losses. Miami and Washington will not make the tournament this year.
LOU: No Mark, it has to Penn State, I agree, but Washington has to be the other Wild Card. They, like Penn State, ended the season on positive notes. Washington beat Washington State 41-14 to end the season. Auburn has three losses, and lost by three touchdowns to Georgia in their last game. Huskies deserve it more Mark. Much, much better finish.
MARK: But as sure we are about the top five seeding, is as unsure we are about the lower five. A team like Auburn might be the sixth seed, or, out of the tournament altogether. I cannot remember a tournament with this level of uncertainty.
LOU: Oh Mark, that is so true. We don’t have a clue who’s in, who’s out, seedings; it’s all is a mystery.
RECE: But now Coach and Mark, we will solve all of the mysteries surrounding this year’s tournament. Let’s go to Brent Musberger in Atlanta. Brent?
BRENT: You are looking...LIVE at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in Atlanta, Georgia, the site of this season's College Football Championship game. Hi there everybody, ten teams will play to win here, and take home the BCS championship trophy. And now, it is time for the Silk® Nog Original bracket presentation.
Let's go to tournament Commissioner Nelson, who will reveal the 2016-2017 tournament. Commissioner..."
COMMISIONER: Thank you Brent. It is my yearly pleasure to announce the teams that will be playing in the BCS College Football Tournament.
In the First Round, in San Diego, the seventh seed, the Trojans of the University of Southern California, champions of the Pac-12, will play the tenth seeded Penn State Nittany Lions, at-large team from the Big Ten Conference.
The other First Round game will be played in Statesboro, Georgia, on the campus of Georgia Southern, where the eighth seed and at-large team from the Southeastern Conference, the Tigers of Auburn University, will take on the ninth seed, and champion of the American Athletic Conference, the University of Central Florida Knights.
Now, let's move onto the BCS Bowl quarterfinals. Either Central Florida, USC, or Penn State will move on to the Orange Bowl, to play the top seed and defending champion, the Clemson University Tigers, champions of the Atlantic Coast Conference.
The winner of the Orange Bowl, will take on the winner of the Rose Bowl, which will feature the fourth seed, the Crimson Tide of the University of Alabama, at-large from the Southeastern Conference, and fifth seeded champion of the Big Ten Conference, the Buckeyes of the Ohio State University.
Either the USC/Penn State winner or sixth seeded Wisconsin will move on to the Cotton Bowl, to play the number two seed, and champion of the Southeastern Conference, the Bulldogs of the University of Georgia.
The Cotton Bowl winner will take on the winner of the remaining quarterfinal game, the Fiesta Bowl, which will feature the third seed, the Sooners of the University of Oklahoma, champions of the Big XII, who will play either the sixth seed, at-large from the Big Ten Conference, the Badgers of University of Wisconsin or Auburn, if they are victorious.
The winners of the BCS quarterfinals will meet in New Orleans for Football's Final Four, and the winner of the semi-finals will play for the BCS Championship, right here, in Atlanta.
BRENT: Thank you Commissioner, it shapes up to be a stupendous tournament. Three questions, sir. What was the bubble team that was closest to make the field, secondly, you allowed Ohio State to play Oklahoma even though they played during the fall schedule, why not allow Auburn to play Clemson if they win. Lastly, why a First Round game in Statesboro. Georgia?
COMMISH: Brent, all great questions. Miami of Florida was the team closest to making the field, but was not particularly close to Penn State in the standings for the last at-large slot.
Last season was unique in that the entire bottom half of the bracket of eight had played Ohio State during the fall schedule: Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan. So having a rematch was unavoidable. This year, Wisconsin will play Georgia if Auburn wins and will play Oklahoma if Central Florida wins, because Auburn has already played Clemson, Georgia, and Alabama among the top four. Georgia and Oklahoma were razor close in the final standings, so we did not think it was a disadvantage for the sixth seeded Badgers to play Georgia in the scenario that Auburn wins.
Lastly, Central Florida, as an automatic qualifier, has regional advantage over at-large Auburn. However, if the Knights win, they will play in the Orange Bowl against Clemson, and we have guidelines of only one game with home state advantage, so we wanted to find a venue outside of Florida. We felt Atlanta was too close to Auburn to be fair to UCF, and it would not be fair to have them play in Jacksonville. So, we are thrilled to take the tournament to Statesboro, Georgia, at the wonderful Georgia Southern stadium, and part of the Savannah, Georgia metropolitan region.
Choosing these First Round sites is one of the fun parts of being on the BCS Committee, however, one of our discussion points is whether the tournament should return to eight teams. The situations that created the need for a ten-team tournament have changed over the last few years. The Big East, now the AAC, no longer has an automatic bid, with that bid going to the top conference champion of the non-Power Five conferences. Also, consolidation teams within the Power Five conferences have changed the dynamic of teams vying for slots. Teams like Utah and TCU used to be outside the Power Five, but deserving a slot in the tournament. These teams are now part of the Power Five. When we started the ten-team tournament, that first season we had five undefeated teams one-loss Iowa was the tenth seed. We have not seen that lately. Last season was unique in that the entire bottom half of the bracket of eight had played Ohio State during the fall schedule: Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan. So having a rematch was unavoidable. This year, Wisconsin will play Georgia if Auburn wins and will play Oklahoma if Central Florida wins, because Auburn has already played Clemson, Georgia, and Alabama among the top four. Georgia and Oklahoma were razor close in the final standings, so we did not think it was a disadvantage for the sixth seeded Badgers to play Georgia in the scenario that Auburn wins.
BRENT: Wow, you really do know your stuff Commissioner Nelson; so impressive. But this last point is shocking. Can you tell us whether next year’s tournament will be a ten-team affair?
COMMISH: Yes, next year will be a ten-team tournament, but we may have some news, one year from now.
BRENT: Well, thank you sir, lots of big news here in Atlanta, let’s get back to Rece, Coach Holtz, and Mark in the studio. Men…
BRENT: Thank you Commissioner, and now back to Rece at the studio.
(microphones pick up unsuspecting continuing conversation)
BRENT: Good job Commissioner. You did fine.
COMMISH: Thank you Brent, you add an air of dignity to the surroundings.
BRENT: Bless you sir, some time I would like to mention on the air my new venture, Vegas Stats & Information Network.
COMMISH: No thanks
(back to the studio)
RECE: Wow, that had some real big surprises! I think we all were certain that Oklahoma would be number two seed in the Cotton Bowl, but no, Georgia moves all the way up to the second seed and the Cotton Bowl, and Oklahoma out to the Fiesta Bowl.
LOU: Rece, we sure did. I hope those Oklahoma fans can get refunds on their hotels near Dallas. Hope they didn’t use Hotwire or that the bought that insurance, because Georgia gets to go to the Cotton Bowl and a nice path to the championship: Cotton Bowl, New Orleans, and Atlanta.
MARK: Right coach, we have been saying all season that the championship in Atlanta and Semi-Finals in New Orleans would be a nice path for the SEC teams. And Georgia will have some playing locations that could really be an advantage for them.
LOU: And we have been talking how about how these sites are good for the SEC teams, but I think Clemson received a really nice number one seed. They play in the Orange Bowl that could lead to New Orleans and then Atlanta. That’s a nice little road for the number one seed. Very advantageous for the Tigers.
RECE: Yes, like Alabama last season, the number one seed Clemson is the defending champion. Mark, any other thoughts on the bracket as you take a look at it.
MARK: Yes, I see the side of the bracket with Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State as the place every other team wants to avoid. That is why I like Wisconsin’s position. I am certain that they are disappointed to lose the Big Ten title game, and lose the chance to be a top two, or even number one seed. But if Auburn wins their game with Central Florida, Wisconsin will go to the Cotton Bowl against Georgia. A game in their own time zone against a team that I think they match up very well against. Even if the Central Florida wins, and Wisconsin has to play Oklahoma, I still think that is better than being over on the other side of the bracket. Because they played Clemson and Georgia, Auburn is also guaranteed to play in the Oklahoma side of the bracket, but they have a much tougMARK: Yes, I see the side of the bracket with Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State as the place every other team wants to avoid. That is why I like Wisconsin’s position. I am certain that they are disappointed to lose the Big Ten title game, and lose the chance to be a top two, or even number one seed. But if Auburn wins their game with Central Florida, Wisconsin will go to the Cotton Bowl against Georgia. A game in their own time zone against a team that I think they match up very well against. Even if the Central Florida wins, and Wisconsin has to play Oklahoma, I still think that is better than being over on the other side of the bracket. Because they played Clemson and Georgia, Auburn is also guaranteed to play in the Oklahoma side of the bracket, but they have a much tougher path than Wisconsin, playing Central Florida first then maybe travelling all the way to Arizona.
But like I said, avoiding the Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State will be a prime motivator, so USC and Penn State are going to be the biggest Central Florida fans in the world this month, because if Central Florida wins, the winner of their game plays Georgia in the Cotton Bowl. Auburn wins? They have to go to Miami and play defending champion, number one seed Clemson. Trojans and Nittany Lions will be root, root, rooting for the Knights.
RECE: But Coach, why is the Georgia/Oklahoma side of the bracket considered less intimidating, they are the number two and three teams in the country?
LOU: Well Rece, think about it. Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State represent the last two champions, Alabama and Clemson, and the last two runners-up, Alabama and Ohio State. All these three teams have great coaches that have won national titles. On the other hand, Georgia has not been in the tournament for years and Kirby Smart has not coached in the tournament. Oklahoma made the Final Four last season, but they have a brand new, rookie head coach in Lincoln Riley. Georgia and Oklahoma are great teams, don’t get me wrong, but Clemson, Alabama, and Ohio State have built great “programs,” and that is why they have the experience and the coaching staffs to be successful in this year’s tournament.
MARK: Coach, I also want to add about Baker Mayfield. He is the type of talent that can carry a team on his back to win the national title. But we have seen for years, Heisman Trophy winners underachieving in the post-season. And it is not a jinx, but there are added time commitments for the guys who win it, and distractions, plus a little added pressure. Baker is a “player,” but we saw two years ago, when the Sooners were easily handled as fourth seeds, that Oklahoma needs more than his play to advance at this level.
To get back to some of the surprises of the bracket reveal, Penn State at number ten seed. We thought they were positioned to be solidly in the tournament. Teams they needed to lose lost: TCU, Stanford, Miami, Auburn. Yet all that happened, and they barely make it in as tenth seed. If Miami had hung in there a little closer to Clemson, Penn State might have been on the outside looking in.
RECE: So guys, prediction time. Who do you like to win it all?
MARK: Rece, all year we have been saying there is big gap between Alabama and the rest of the teams. Just because Alabama lost on the road to their rival Auburn does not mean Alabama is no longer the top of the class. I think being the fourth seed, having to go to Pasadena for their first game, being on a tough side of the bracket, these things will not be a burden for the Crimson Tide, they will be a motivator to raise their game, and not suffer a letdown. I like Nick Saban and Alabama.
LOU: I really think Clemson is going to take the title. Like I said, such a nice path to the championship in Miami, New Orleans, and Atlanta. Yes, it is difficult to repeat, but they have a lot of new faces who want to prove they are just as good as last year’s team. The Tigers will take it.
RECE: Alright, and how about a sleeper team to watch, that could take it all?
LOU: Keep your eyes on the only undefeated team, Central Florida. They also have a nice path, they might play a game in Florida, two games in Georgia, and a game in New Orleans, that is a nice group of locations for a team from Orlando. Yes, they play Clemson if they beat Auburn, but Central Florida playing in Miami is not going to be a pushover for Clemson. UCF can flat out play.
MARK: Like I said before, I like Wisconsin’s situation, but let me add another, the number ten seed, the Penn State Nittany Lions. They had a very difficult stretch in their schedule, lost a heartbreaker at Ohio State. Then the next week, played well at Michigan State until a long storm delay interrupted the game for hours, and the Spartans prevailed. Penn State might be as good as anybody in the country. Especially if they beat USC and then play Georgia in the Cotton, I can see Penn State making a run.
To look at the totality of the bracket, there is a case to be made that USC and Central Florida are not at the level of the other teams, which means Auburn and Penn State will advance out of the First Round. So we could have Auburn beating Oklahoma, Georgia overTo look at the totality of the bracket, there is a case to be made that USC and Central Florida are not at the level of the other teams, which means Auburn and Penn State will advance out of the First Round. So we could have Auburn beating Oklahoma, Georgia over Wisconsin, Alabama over Ohio State, and Clemson over Penn State. So could we see three SEC teams plus Clemson in New Orleans? And Georgia-Auburn III?
LOU: No, no, we don’t want Georgia-Auburn III. That would be terrible. We really need to re-seed the teams so that would not happen. Come on Commish, re-seed them.
RECE: I think the Commissioner is still with Brent in Atlanta. Brent, did Commissioner Nelson hear Lou’s fervent pleas?
BRENT: Yes Rece, we have been listening closely to you folks back at the studio. Commissioner Nelson, what do you think of Coach’s idea, to re-seed so Georgia and Auburn would not play for a third time?
COMMISH: Coach, you make a great point. Again, years ago, the prospect of teams playing a third time was not possible, so we have to adjust with the times. But my contention to consider: Is Georgia-Auburn III better to be played as a Semi-Final or a National Championship? I think setting it up as a possible championship game may be a worse scenario.
BRENT: Thanks Mr. Commisioner, back to Rece, Coach, and Mark.
RECE: So a couple final notes, after two years with Alabama as the only SEC representative in the tournament, as Mark alluded to, three SEC teams this year. Also, the past two seasons, the last team out was Florida State, and this year, another ACC team was last team out Miami. Pre-season, we were expecting an Alabama-Florida State battle for number one. Alabama held form for most of the season, Florida State ended up 6-6. We should note, seven of the ten team’s from last year’s tournament are back, Michigan, Western Michigan, and Washington not returning. Look for some new teams looking to contend, as schools like UCLA with Chip Kelly and Texas A & M with Jimbo Fisher adding coaches with strong resumes that might shake up the status quo.
So let's look at the tournament bracket one more time:
FIRST ROUND:
In San Diego:
7 USC
10 Penn State
In Statesboro, GA:
8 Auburn
9 Central Florida
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 Clemson
Central Florida/USC/Penn State
Rose:
4 Alabama
5 Ohio State
Cotton:
2 Georgia
USC/Penn State/6 Wisconsin
Fiesta:
3 Oklahoma
6 Wisconsin/Auburn
SEMI-FINALS in New Orleans
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BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Atlanta
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