It’s the final weekend! 19 teams, 10 weekend games, 10 slots, 1 wonderful tournament!

After last weekend, my tournament “seemed” to have 18 teams eligible going into the last weekend of the season.  Well….now the MAC champ and Boise State are knocking at the door, so I have to add those three teams; 21.  But, due to the wins by the teams above them, I am declaring Texas A & M and South Carolina out of consideration.  So, 19 teams have a shot at 10 slots.

Thursday night starts the elimination phase to get down to ten teams for my college football tournament.  Louisville and Rutgers will face off, the winner either certainly or definitely winning the Big East.  Even though soon both will be heading (maybe running) in opposite direction to new conferences.

Prior to the weekend:

Unofficially Definitely In:

1) Notre Dame

Likely  Definitely In:

2) Florida
3) Oregon

Winners are Definitely In:

4-5) Rutgers/Louisville (the latter Unofficially Definitely depending on Cincy)
6-7) Stanford/UCLA
8-9) Florida State/Georgia Tech
10-11) Nebraska/Wisconsin
12-13) Alabama/Georgia
14-15) Kansas State/Oklahoma (or KSU if they both lose)

Bubble teams, likely for one slot:

16) Louisiana State
12 or 13) SEC champ game loser
17-18) Kent State/Northern Illinois winner
19) Boise State if they defeat Nevada

During the weekend:

Projected seeding for automatic qualifiers and (likely qualifiers)

1.Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. (Florida)
4. ??????
5. ??????
6. Kansas State
7. Stanford
8. Florida State
9. (Louisville)
10. Wisconsin

Bubble teams (for two spots): Georgia, Oregon, Louisiana State, Northern Illinois, Boise State

Sneak big MAC attack may reduce the SEC’s tournament footprint, and ease Notre Dame’s road to the Final Four

At one time, I thought my tournament’s main issue would be SEC overload.  Or overdose, as the case may be.  Early in the season, having five SEC teams, the champ plus all four at-large’s, seemed not only possible, but likely.  But Notre Dame’s emergence as an independent that was likely to be an automatic qualifier seemed to reduce the number to four SEC teams, with one less at-large spot available.  The Oregon’s recent loss lowered their conference standing, so that they might take an at-large spot, and it seemed like three SEC teams would be included.  Now, a threat from an unanticipated source may reduce the SEC footprint to two teams.

And it had all seemed so clear over the past weekend.  The tourney would be the six conference champs, Notre Dame also qualifying, and three remaining slots for at-large teams.  Florida and Oregon earned two of those slots certainly with solid victories on Saturday over ranked foes.  That left the seeming drama at, who would be the final at-large?  SEC champ game loser, LSU, Texas A & M, South Carolina, maybe even Oklahoma?

Well, now with lots of losses from #10 to #25 in the standings (#10 Florida State, #11 Clemson, #15 Oregon State, #16 Texas, #17 UCLA, #18 Rutgers, #19 Michigan, #21 Oklahoma State, #20 Louisville, #24 Arizona and #25 Washington), out of nowhere, MAC conference champ contenders like Kent State and Northern Illinois are threatening to hit the top 16 to earn a bid.  I had a weekend with 23 tournament contenders, weeded out only four to get to 19, and now I have to add two more back into the equation.

The effect of this potential emergence of another conference champion to the ten team tourney is:

-SEC championship game changes dramatically from, “lose and you still have at-large shot” to “win or go home (or go to non-tourney bowl).”

-Right now, a Nebraska/Florida State match-up seems in the cards, but Kent/NIU entering the picture would have these teams playing the MAC champ and the Big East champ instead.

-A Pac-12 win might raise Stanford to the top six and demote the last at-large to seventh seed.  It seemed like the seventh seed team would be the only real threat to the top two seed (aka, seeds eight to ten would not be able to beat a top two seed), and when that was Stanford, that was good for the Irish.  The guidelines to avoid rematches meant Alabama or Georgia would meet the Cardinal  When seventh seed seemed to be the spot for the SEC champ game loser, LSU, Texas A & M, or South Carolina, then it looked like these teams might face the Irish if they already played the SEC champ.  Now, ND might face the winner of Flor/Kent State

-Have to scout locations for games if Kent or NIU would end up with the “geographic advantage” (most likely created if Wisconsin beats Nebraska and is seeded lower than these MAC  teams).  Kent and Browns Stadium would fit, NIU at Soldier Field. 

-Already people are pointing out Kent’s big loss to Kentucky.  But they did beat Rutgers, who may also make the big party.  And the main thing is the entire MAC body of work, starting with Ohio’s win at Penn State, that justifies the MAC deserves a shot.  In real life, they take up a BCS Bowl berth, in my little pretend world, they would play in a First Round game.  I think they deserve the opportunity.

So this week, we can look forward to answers to these questions:

-SEC championship will determine the second seed

-Rutgers versus Louisville, Pac-12 championship, ACC championship, Big Ten championship

-The MAC Championship, and whether the winner will make it into the top 16 to qualify for the tourney

-If the MAC champ cannot break in, will the team that loses SEC championship fall below LSU for the last at-large?

-Can above Stanford Pac-12 win push them LSU or the SEC loser to make the top six and avoid the First Round games?

Here are two scenarios, assuming the SEC loser is approximately the same ranking as LSU, one without Kent State in the top 16, and one where the Flashes make it:

FIRST ROUND:
In Oakland:
7 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
10 Rutgers (Big East Champ)

In Kansas City:
8 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)
9 Florida State (ACC champ)
        

BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Rose:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Nebraska/Florida State winner

Orange:
4 Oregon (at large)
6 LSU (at large)

Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Stanford/Rutgers winner

Fiesta:
3 Florida (at large)
5 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)

Semi-finals in Arlington, TX

Championship in Miami

OR

FIRST ROUND:
In Kansas City:
7 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)
10 Rutgers (Big East Champ)

In Atlanta:
8 Florida State (ACC champ)
9 Kent State (MAC champ)


BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Florida State/Kent State winner

Orange:
4 Oregon (at large)
5 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)

Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Nebraska/Rutgers winner

Rose:
3 Florida (at large)
6 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)     

Semi-finals in Arlington, TX

Championship in Miami

Dominoes will fall on Thanksgiving rivalry weekend

Thanksgiving weekend will feature a cornucopia of games that will go a long way to decide the participants and seedings of my ten-team tourney.  What fun!  And the menu of games will start a series dominoes that will fall, starting slowly and building up to a full-fledged clatter by Saturday.

So based on the latest info, here is the projected tourney:

FIRST ROUND:
In Oakland:
7 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
10 Rutgers (Big East Champ)

In Atlanta:
8 Florida State (ACC champ)
9 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)

BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Rose:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Florida State/Nebraska winner

Orange:
4 Oregon (at large)
6 LSU (at large)

Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Stanford/Rutgers winner

Fiesta:
3 Florida (at large)
5 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)     

Semi-finals in Arlington, TX

Championship in Miami

And these teams, going into the weekend, hoping for a shot at the tourney:

SEC champ game loser (at-large)
LSU (at-large or SEC champ)
Texas A & M  (at-large)
South Carolina  (at-large)
Clemson  (at-large; UPDATE; eliminated with loss to South Carolina)
Oklahoma  (at-large or Big XII champ)
Oregon State (at-large: UPDATE; eliminated with loss to Oregon)
Texas (at-large: UPDATE; eliminated with loss to TCU)
Georgia Tech (ACC champ)
UCLA (Pac 12 champ)
Wisconsin (Big Ten champ)
Michigan (Big Ten champ UPDATE; eliminated by Nebraska win)
Louisville (Big East champ)

WEEKEND UPDATES:

Domino 1: Longhorns longshot chance dashed (21 teams left)
Texas was hoping for a splashy win to end the season at K-State to be a two-loss team and either end up with second place in Big XII or be in  a four-way tie at the top.  Oh yeah, the Longhorns would need to defeat TCU at home.  Well, for the first time in years, TCU is not a factor to get into the tournament, but they still rose up to beat Texas and send the Longhorns waiting until next year.  Post Thanksgiving, 21 teams still left for ten tourney slots.

Domino 2: Nebraska's win eliminates Michigan; Big Ten hope for respectability lives another week (20 teams left)
Iowa provided an upset scare.  Sure, Nebraska was scared, but Michigan still could have lost to Ohio State to send the Huskers to Indy for the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin.  But the real scare was at conference headquarters, who hope Nebraska can maintain a bit of respectability by being a two-loss, non #10 seed representative to the tournament, plus sell some tickets in Indy.  Plus, the tournament committee did not look forward to Michigan making the tourney since they and Stanford both played Notre Dame, and UM might cause challenges due to the "avoid regular season re-matches" guidelines.  But Husker win makes all well, removes OSU-Michigan as a domino game, and brings Nebraska a step closer to a return to the tournament in which it once was omnipresent.

Domino 3: LSU remains atop at-large bubble with wobbly win at Arkansas
LSU went into this game as perhaps the last team into the tournament as third of three at-large teams.  Arkansas showed signs of being the team that during pre-season was considered a contender for either an at-large team or possibly SEC champ, but in the end, a few questionable 4th down decisions resulted in a stumble like a Bobby Petrino biking day trip.  On one hand, LSU may have solidified their slot, or opened things up for Clemson, South Carolina, or Texas A & M to leap frog them.  Time will tell, but for now, LSU is in the hunt.

Domino 4: Georgia extinguishes Tech upset thoughts early
Georgia and GTU's propensity to ruin each other's seasons (e.g., three seasons ago, Georgia's win  demoted Tech from top six seed to 9th seed and loss to Ohio State in Cincy.  But this year's impressive Bulldog win solidifies their chances.  Although they want to take the SEC title, this win helps if they lose and need to grab an at-large bid

Dominoes 5 and 6: Big East leaders take one on the chin; Tenth seed is in their grasp
Sigh.  Rutgers could have sewed up a Big East bid with a win and a Louisville loss, but Rutgers never was in the game.  Louisville dramatically brought it to OT, only to lose at home anyway.  Sigh.  Lots of scenarios, but it just seems like Thursday's Rutgers-Louisville winner gets the tenth seed.  If one of them is willing to win.

Domino 7: Oregon sends Oregon State's at-large bid packing (19 teams left)
It looked interesting at first, but the Ducks pulled away, and seems so have locked up tournament security with a big win.  They seem certain for one of the at-large bids, but may have to play in the Pac-12 championship if UCLA wins.  So it looks like Oregon in, Oregon State out. 

Domino 8: Alabama-Auburn, no drama expected, none delivered
Yeah, there were a lot of scenarios if Alabama lost, but that was never a real option.  They are in SEC finals, but they cannot be guarantee an at-large birth if they lose to Georgia because one-loss teams are starting to circle at-large bids.

Domino 9: Florida's surges to solidify at-large hopes, FSU's ACC opportunity awaits
This has been a game in the tourney's sites for weeks.  A big hurdle for Florida's hope of an at-large bid and top four seed, and Florida State's chance to jump into the top six seeds and avoid a First Round game.  Turnovers left home Seminole fans shaking their heads early, but although seeming in control, the Gators found themselves behind as FSU put up a 17-0 third quarter.  Florida responded to pull out an easy win, and will grab an at-large bid and top four seed

Domino 10: Oklahoma's bedlam win leaves them in the hunt
Oklahoma seemed to grab big leads, and then the Sooners would tie it up. The OSU up again, on and on.  It looked like the Cowboys would prevail to officially send KState to the tourney, and send OU home eliminated.  But Oklahoma avoided tourney elimination, winning 51-48 in OT. Some help from Texas would help give Oklahoma a Big XII bid.

Domino 11: Stanford dashes the hopes of at-large dreamers everywhere
Once Florida and Oregon won, teams from across the country became UCLA fans. A UCLA win would send Oregon to the Pac-12 championship game and potentially keep the Ducks from grabbing one of what is anticipated to be three at-large slots.  A Stanford win would seem to guarantee two of the three slots would be owned by Gators and Ducks.  But the Cardinal prevailed, hoping to win conference and rise up to a sixth seed.  But UCLA gets another chance against the Cardinal next week, and if coach Mora can use his NFL experience of within-season home and home adjustments, maybe UCLA will find a way into the tourney.

Domino 12:  South Carolina completes day of SEC dominance over ACC; Clemson at-large bid is denied (18 teams left)
This has been another game in the tourney's sites for weeks.  Clemson couldn't win the ACC, but hoped a one-loss season would have sent them to the tourney with the last of three at-large golden tickets.  The day's events seem to make South Carolina's at-large hopes slim, but this USC won a back and forth contest with some drama, until the last minutes.

Domino 13: Texas A & M does their part to stay in at-large contention
The Aggies were heavily favored versus Mizzou, but an impressive performance will keep them in the at-large discussion.  So if Oregon and Florida have two of three at-large slots, the SEC loser of Alabama-Georgia, LSU, Texas A & M, Clemson/South Carolina winner, and Oklahoma can all make a case for slot number three.

Domino 14: USC scaring Notre Dame and the tourney committee
Notre Dame lead throughout, but SC staying close had people nervous.  Could a loss still keep ND in the hunt?  The appeal of #1 ND with a nice road to Cowboys Stadium for the Semi-Finals had the tournament committee pacing nervously in their wood paneled luxurious board room.  Notre Dame prevails, and #1 tourney seed awaits.

SOOOO....the weekend started with 22 teams with tournament dreams, and 18 remain.

Wacky weekend will follow a crazy night in college football

In my tournament world, I am denoting next weekend’s college football slate, the “wacky weekend,” because it seems like the current house of cards of teams involved can be completely flattened by a schedule full to the brim with impactful games. And the wackiness started as the tournament with this nice structure going into last weekend: K-State in the Fiesta, Oregon in the Rose, Alabama in the Sugar, Notre Dame in the Orange; and was completely sideswiped by the losses to the top two teams. So right now, SEC champ goes to the Sugar, maybe, and after that, who knows? And the tough hurdles for last week's top two were supposed to be Texas and Oregon State, opponents still out there to possibly shake this up some more.

The immediate impact of last night’s losses was the elevation of Notre Dame from #3 and most likely a bowl game against an SEC team, to now, #1, with teams like Florida State, Nebraska, Louisville as opponents, or if things get even more loopy, teams like Miami and UCLA. Before last night, it looked like the SEC would have lots of teams in the tourney but would have to fight for the title from seeds of #4+. Now they look to have a shot back for a top two seed, but Oregon’s possible devaluation to an at-large team may knock out teams like LSU, Texas A & M, even a victorious Clemson from the tournament. Before last night, LSU seemed like a shoe-in at-large. Now they may have to wait to see how far down the SEC champ game loser falls, however there are many more possibilities too, including Florida and Oregon losing this week, that can shake up the at-large race.

And, I am sure the BCS feels the same way, a system to take the top teams and put them together now often includes automatic qualifying conference champs from outside the top ten. As of now, only two conferences have teams that control their own destiny within the top six, Bama/Georgia and KState. Florida State, Stanford, Nebraska, and Louisville/Rutgers could provide two First Round games full of four conference champs. That was not the design for the BCS, but I actually don’t mind these teams having to “play-in” for the chance to be fodder for the top two seeds. So here are upcoming games and their story lines in this reality show of a ten-team college football tournament:

1) Notre Dame at USC: In the realm of meaningfulness, this game has more meaning in the current system than my hypothetical tournament, but not much more. ND may be in my tourney win or lose, but the chance to be #1, play an opponent from the outside the top 10, the conference champions that seem like they will be out there, would seem big motivation. A loss could even drop them to a #7 to #10 seed and a First Round game. Yes, the Irish would want to win this game even in my tourney scenario.

2) Alabama/Auburn, Georgia/Georgia Tech, and the SEC championship. The only flaw in the situation of the Bama/Georgia winner being #2 (or #1) seed is the Ramblin’ Wreck. Seems like every season, whether it be UG or Tech is riding high, the rival bursts their bubble in this game. Also, come on Auburn, who you going to get to coach against Saban in-state that can say they won a national title with Cam Newton? Face it Auburn, until Saban leaves, you will be playing the margins of football success; let the guy stay unless Urban Meyer wants to move to War Eagle Land.

3) Florida at Florida State: This game has been on the map forever, as it could be an elimination game for Florida that could raise FSU into the top six to avoid a First Round game. Now, it seems like a Gator win gives them a top three seed and bumps the Seminoles further down the road to a First Round game

4) Big 12 drama. K-State hosting Texas in two weeks was supposed to be the Wildcats hurdle to undefeated-ness until the ghost of RG III showed up in Waco. Now, a Texas win can knock KSU out of the tourney, although an Oklahoma loss to Oklahoma State might mean a four-way Big 12 tie at the top. In simplest terms, KState can win at home and earn a top five tourney seed. Otherwise, potentially another type of Big 12 bedlam will reign.

5) Oregon at Oregon State plus other Pac-12 fun: Which Ducks team will show up? The one the dominated lesser foes in a back-loaded schedule, or one with the wind out of its sails? So many odd situations in the Pac-12; Oregon can be an at-large team, ripping a spot away from the throngs of awaiting SEC teams, or get the chance to play UCLA for a Pac-12 automatic slot. In any case, two current longest active strings, Oregon’s run of three straight tournaments and Stanford’s two straight Final Fours, are still alive and controlled by their own destiny, and also hanging on a thin, teeny string.

6) Clemson hosting South Carolina. Again, both teams thought a win would propel them into at-large contention if not lock up a slot, but now that Oregon may occupy an at-large slot, the winner of this game needs to root for Oregon to take the Pac-12, Florida to lose, the SEC champ game loser to look terrible; anything that can open a spot for either a one-loss Tiger team trying to redeem its embarrassing First Round loss to Wisconsin last season or a two-loss South Carolina team trying to make the big tourney party. Those three SEC-ACC match-ups of FL-FSU, UGA-GT, and this one all have big tourney implications, with basically every team rooting for themselves and the ACC to win, no matter what conference they are from.

So right now, the top five seeds look to be: 1) Notre Dame, Independent AQ 2) Alabama/Georgia winner (unless Georgia loses to GTU before beating the Tide), SEC champ 3) Florida, at-large 4) Kansas State, Big 12 champ 5) Oregon, at-large

With these teams looking for an at-large spot: SEC champ game loser, LSU, Texas A & M, South Carolina, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas.

And these teams looking at conference automatics: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Stanford, UCLA, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, Louisville, Rutgers.

And this season will have no teams qualify automatically from outside the six AQ conferences, and probably not as an at-large team like Boise State last year, but give a shout out to the MAC. Yes, this years contenders for the title have flaws. Kent State lost to Kentucky but beat Rutgers. Northern Illinois lost by 1 to Iowa but beat Kansas. Throw in Ohio U’s win at Penn State and other signature wins, and the MAC deserves a seat at the table in the kooky crazy season. But MAC, you had a great season, and I will save some stuffing for you.

So if I must project my tournament, and I feel like it is carved in sand, here it is, as of now:

FIRST ROUND:

In Atlanta:
7 Florida State (ACC champ)
10 Louisville (Big East Champ)

In Pasadena:
8 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
9 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)

BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta: 
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Nebraska, else if Stanford wins, the Florida State/Louisville winner

Orange: 
4 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)
6 LSU (at large)

Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Florida State/Louisville winner unless Stanford wins

Rose:
3 Florida (at large)
5 Oregon (at large)

Semi-finals in Arlington, TX


Championship in Miami