Championship Week is here! Boise State and Arkanses in razor close race for last at-large spot

Yes, only my little tournament and I were waiting with great anticipation when the latest BCS standings came out, not to see who were numbers one and two, but to see how far down Arkansas fell. See, the last at-large spot in the ten-team tourney is currently held by Boise State, who ended up with a wire thin lead over Arkansas. Going into the last week of the season, the Broncos lead is precarious though. If LSU wins over Georgia, then Boise State’s key signature win of the season (over Georgia also in Atlanta) may be downgraded in the computer ratings. But if Georgia wins, they grab the SEC bid, and LSU most likely grabs the third at-large spot, also leaving out the Broncos. Plus, with the workings of the computer algorithms, Boise playing a 1-10 New Mexico team may have another negative impact on the computer rankings.

For both Boise State and Arkansas, they have to root for any team above them in a conference championship game to win out, because they don’t need any more competition for at-large bids from falling teams like LSU, Oklahoma State, or, to a lesser extent, Virginia Tech.

Right now, there are three slots available for at-large teams, and it seems like Alabama and Stanford have two of them sewn up. A fourth could open up if Houston loses, and TCU fails to make the top 16. The surprising thing out of the latest rankings was Houston jumped to a projected sixth seed, over Boise State. Certainly, that is huge for the Cougars to advance right to a BCS quarterfinal bowl and skip the First Round. But also, a potential third seed like Oklahoma State, though not discarding Houston, has to see that as a break over playing teams like Boise State, Oregon, Arkansas, or Wisconsin. As I have said before, no one wants to play Boise State, and if they are placed in a First Round game or miss the tourney, the top seeds will be relieved that someone else can deal with the Broncos first.

The challenge right now for the tournament brackets are the guidelines to not have teams replay regular season games in the First or BCS Quarterfinal rounds, and LSU has played too many of these teams! Usually, LSU would play one of the winners of the First Round games, but potentially, the Tigers may have played three of the four already: Oregon, West Virginia, and maybe Arkansas. If that is the case, LSU may end up playing a sixth seed Houston in their BCS Quarterfinal.

And the Rose Bowl is not thrilled at how all this is working out, with their Big Ten and Pac-12 champs looking like First Round teams and Stanford potentially tied to the Orange Bowl playing ACC champ Virginia Tech. They may find a receptive trader in the Orange Bowl though. Miami may prefer an LSU versus Boise State/Big Ten Champ game than the VTU-Stanford match-up, especially if the Badgers win. But if that were guaranteed, the Rose Bowl would grab that game also. If Stanford-VTU was the Rose Bowl, all but one party will be happy. The happy would be Stanford, the Hokies getting a chance to play in Pasadena, the Orange and Rose Bowls. But the ACC may not be thrilled that their bowl tie-in would discard their champ.

So here are the 21 teams I see as still alive for the 10-team tournament:

ACC Champ: Virginia Tech or Clemson
Big Ten Champ: Michigan State or Wisconsin
Big XII Champ: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State
SEC Champ: LSU or Georgia
Pac-12 Champ: Oregon or UCLA
Big East Champ: West Virginia, Cincinnati, or Louisville

Non AQ-Conference Automatic Qualifier: Houston or TCU or neither

At-Large contenders (3 or 4):
Alabama
Stanford
Boise State
Arkansas
LSU (if they lose)
Oklahoma State (if they lose)
Virginia Tech (if they lose)
Kansas State
South Carolina

So here are the projections, as of now:

First Round:

Detroit: #7 Boise State (at-large) versus #9 Michigan State (Big Ten champ)

Seattle: #8 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Rose: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Boise State/Michigan State winner

Orange: #4 Stanford (at large) versus #5 Virginia Tech (ACC Champ)

Sugar: #2 Alabama (at large) versus Oregon/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #3 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus #6 Houston (Conf USA champ, non-BCS conference AQ)

Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans

Thanksgiving is here, serious tournament planning can commence

Last weekend was supposed to be the calm before the college football storm. After all, every team with hopes of making my tournament was a double digit favorite, with the exception of two: Cincy favored over Rutgers (underdog won) and OSU over PSU (underdog won). We didn't know that lots of big underdogs would win also.

The impact started on Thursday night when one-loss Southern Miss, with dreams of beating Houston and making the tournament, lost to two-win UAB.

Then it continued Friday when Oklahoma State went down. At the time, that seemed like it would really knock the Cowboys down lots o' notches, but when the other bedlam occurred Saturday, OSU ended up back as fourth seed, and may move up to third with an Arkansas loss, with eyes still on the Fiesta Bowl.

The biggest impact of the OSU loss was the additive effect with the Oklahoma loss, which took the OSU/OU loser from their bedlam game, and turning them into a possibly below the bubble team from a solid at-large team.

All of the other losses brought Stanford back into controlling their own destiny for an at-large and giving Boise State some movement into at-large consideration. Boise State's biggest advantage is that no team is breathing down their necks, behind the Broncos are Houston, who are basically their own opponent for a berth in the tourney, the Sooners, who may lose again, and Oregon who is not competing for an at-large, yet. Kansas State and South Carolina still have at-large hopes, but Boise seems to be in a better position.

The Rose Bowl was most unhappy with the results, which now look to put the Pac-12/Big Ten winners into the First Round, perhaps against one another. If Stanford ends up matched up against ACC champ VTU in the Orange Bowl, the Rose Bowl may be hard pressed to find a match-up with Pac-12/Big Ten ties.

Another surprise was that with all of these crazy results, TCU went from 19th to 20th, no benefit at all. They are looking like they may not be in position to replace Houston if the Cougars go down as the non-AQ conference AQ.

So right now, the at-large teams for either three or four spots (if Houston loses)

1) Alabama
2) LSU/Arkansas loser
3) Stanford
4) Boise State

If Georgia wins the SEC championship game, would the three at-large teams be all SEC West schools? Only time will tell if such scenarios, or ones we cannot even fathom (like Arizona State making the tourney) play out.


So here are the projections, as of now:

First Round:

San Antonio: #7 Houston (Conf USA champ, non-BCS conference AQ) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Seattle: #8 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) versus #9 Michigan State (Big Ten champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Michigan State or Houston/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #4 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus #5 Virginia Tech (ACC Champ)

Sugar: #2 Alabama (at large) versus Oregon or Houston/West Virginia winner

Rose: #3 Arkansas (at-large) versus #6 Stanford (at large)

Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans

Turkey in the offing; Tourney speculation starts to heat up

Usually, trying to figure out the teams that will make my tournament is fruitless before Thanksgiving. With turkey on the verge of going from annoying to delicious, here is how the tournament shakes out so far.

LSU - The Tigers are at the pinnacle, win out and they are the number one seed of the tournament. Due to tournament rules that teams cannot have more than one game with home state advantage, LSU, even if they win the SEC, cannot play in the Sugar Bowl because the championship game is in New Orleans. So, most likely, an undefeated LSU will go to the Orange Bowl as the top seed. But Arkansas or the SEC East champ can ruin this dream. After all, where is the Les Miles who makes kooky decisions at crunch time? Two seasons ago, LSU had the inside track to the last at-large bid, but they blew it. I still see a good chance that when all is said and done, there will be absolutely no unbeaten teams prior to the bowls. But under any circumstances, LSU should be in the tourney, either as SEC champ or at-large.

Oklahoma State - Prior to the season, the predictions were that Oklahoma would win the Big XII, with Oklahoma State and Texas A & M as a toss-up for Big XII at-large. Well, for the first half of their head to head match-up, it seemed like A & M would emerge over OSU. But OSU stormed back in the second half and has not looked back, even surpassing Oklahoma, so far, with a Fiesta Bowl game in sight. The Cowboys seem like a shoe-in to make the tourney no matter what the outcome with the Sooners. Plus, if they stay number two seed, often it seems like getting the winner of the 7-10 first round game can provide what seems like a less challenging opponent that the 8-9 winner. Especially if 7-10 turns out to be a match-up like Houston versus the Big East champ.

Alabama - Right now, the Tide seems likely to be a top four team, with a Sugar Bowl awaiting. So do they want Arkansas to upend LSU so that the Tide could have a chance at an SEC championship and top two seed? Top two seed has its advantages, but also means adding an SEC championship game in Atlanta. Bama might be happy just letting LSU play the extra game. Unless in-state rival Auburn pulls an upset, Alabama seems a likely tourney lock.

Oregon - The Ducks, Ohio State, and TCU are the only teams that have been in the last two tournaments, and Oregon seems most likely to make it three in a row. They still have a game with USC, but the Rose Bowl is happy that a Pac-12 team is positioned to play in Pasadena, since the Big Ten champ appears likely to have to play in the First Round game.

Oklahoma - The Sooners still have a chance to propel into the top four and gain a Fiesta Bowl birth, but even with a loss, they may be a likely at-large team. Last season, with two losses, the Sooners were behind one-loss Stanford and ahead of one-loss Boise State in the final rankings, and if that happens again, that may be enough to make the tournament as an at-large team even with a loss.

Arkansas - The Razorbacks have a chance to return to the tournament after being the eight seed last season. If Arkansas can beat LSU, likely three SEC West teams make the tourney. But if the SEC East rep wins the SEC, all bets are off. If Arkansas loses to LSU, they would be hard pressed to stay in the tourney, since last season, two loss Arkansas was behind both one-loss Stanford and two-loss Oklahoma in the seedings, and if you throw in Bama as an at-large, three at-large teams would be all accounted for. A Houston loss could open a slot for the Hogs though.

Clemson - The tourney would love to see Clemson represent the ACC as a new face. But they may find the same fate at Georgia Tech two seasons ago. GTU was cruising toward a top six seeding, but took a beating during their non-conference finale with SEC Georgia. The Wreck bounced back to win the ACC, but found themselves in the First Round traveling to Cincinnati to play Ohio State. Maybe Clemson will do the same, winning the ACC but with a loss to South Carolina pushing them into a First Round game at Lambeau or Ford Field in Big Ten country.

Virginia Tech - Yeah, another appearance by the Hokies is not optimal, but a least they may get into the top six this time. If they survive the ACC battles, a Rose Bowl against Oregon may await the Hokies.

Stanford - Currently ninth in the rankings, finishing in the top seven will get teams into the tournament this season (unless the ACC champ also drops to the automatic qualifiers that are back of the pack). So Stanford is not a shoe-in, but if they win out and look impressive enough over Notre Dame, I think the Cardinal will be back for a repeat visit to the tournament. After all, they have to jump from 9th to 7th, but 3 teams ahead of them will lose (Okla-OSU, LSU-Ark, Clemson-VTU). But a fourth seed like last season, which propelled Stanford on a run to the final four, is unlikely. And if Stanford ends up the seventh seed with a trip to play the Big East champ, it will be interesting if they end up playing in Lucas Oil stadium to play Cincy or Louisville to give Colts fans a look at Andrew Luck.

Boise State - Yes, another season on the path to being a top four seed, and a late season lapse. They still have a shot, but it seems like the Broncos will be on the outside looking in again this season. Last season, one loss BSU was ranked behind one-loss Stanford, two loss Oklahoma, and two loss Arkansas, and if the same thing happens, there will be no room in the inn for Boise State. They have a chance, but it will be tough. But believe me, no one wants to play the Broncos. After beating Oklahoma and Ohio State five seasons ago in the tourney, and two seasons ago beating Cincinnati and Texas on the way to a championship game loss to Florida, BSU is scary.

Houston - The Cougars control their own destiny now that Boise State lost, but they certainly have a few obstacles in their path over the last three weeks. Although not an optimal tourney team, if they end up playing the Big Ten champ in San Antonio, tournament organizers will be happy. But if Houston moves to the 7th seed and plays the Big East champ, maybe in College Station to try to sell more tickets due to proximity to Houston, it will not be an optimal match-up.

Michigan State, Wisconsin - Although the BCS bowls love Big Ten teams and it seems like only one Big Ten team will make it, and at that play in a First Round game, even that can be interesting. If they can have the geographic advantage, having a First Round game in Green Bay or Detroit will generate some interest. And if they have to travel to San Antonio (vs Houston), Atlanta (vs Clemson), or Charlotte (vs Virginia Tech), they certainly will travel well. Yes, it is possible Penn State will emerge, but even before the scandal, that seemed unlikely.

Big East champ - Yes, they will be the 1oth seed, I guarantee it. Somebody will take this thing, won't they?

TCU, Southern Miss - It seemed like a third straight appearance for Horned Frogs seemed unlikely, but now, don't count out TCU. They are 19th, and if Houston falls, if they propel themselves to the top 16, TCU is in. As long as they can stay ahead of Southern Miss, who might leap frog the Horned Frogs with a quality win over Houston. If Houston falls, this could be interesting, and TCU or Southern Miss may find themselves as 9th seed traveling to Big Ten country.

Pac-12 South - No, I am not going to apologize for thinking the Legends and Leaders is a stupid idea just because the Pac-12 may send UCLA, Arizona State, or Utah to the championship game. Their problem is USC on probation, not geographic divisions. MSU and Wisconsin probably will make the Big Ten finale, and this would be the same if they had nice east-west divisions.

So here are the projections, as of now:

First Round:

Atlanta: #7 Clemson (ACC champ) versus #10 Cincinnati (Big East Champ)

San Antonio: #8 Houston (Conf USA champ, non-BCS conference AQ) versus #9 Michigan State (Big Ten champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Houston/Michigan State winner

Rose: #4 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) versus #6 Arkansas (at-large)

Fiesta: #2 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus Clemson/Cincinnati winner

Sugar: #3 Alabama (at large) versus #5 Oklahoma (at large)

Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans