Yes, only my little tournament and I were waiting with great anticipation when the latest BCS standings came out, not to see who were numbers one and two, but to see how far down Arkansas fell. See, the last at-large spot in the ten-team tourney is currently held by Boise State, who ended up with a wire thin lead over Arkansas. Going into the last week of the season, the Broncos lead is precarious though. If LSU wins over Georgia, then Boise State’s key signature win of the season (over Georgia also in Atlanta) may be downgraded in the computer ratings. But if Georgia wins, they grab the SEC bid, and LSU most likely grabs the third at-large spot, also leaving out the Broncos. Plus, with the workings of the computer algorithms, Boise playing a 1-10 New Mexico team may have another negative impact on the computer rankings.
For both Boise State and Arkansas, they have to root for any team above them in a conference championship game to win out, because they don’t need any more competition for at-large bids from falling teams like LSU, Oklahoma State, or, to a lesser extent, Virginia Tech.
Right now, there are three slots available for at-large teams, and it seems like Alabama and Stanford have two of them sewn up. A fourth could open up if Houston loses, and TCU fails to make the top 16. The surprising thing out of the latest rankings was Houston jumped to a projected sixth seed, over Boise State. Certainly, that is huge for the Cougars to advance right to a BCS quarterfinal bowl and skip the First Round. But also, a potential third seed like Oklahoma State, though not discarding Houston, has to see that as a break over playing teams like Boise State, Oregon, Arkansas, or Wisconsin. As I have said before, no one wants to play Boise State, and if they are placed in a First Round game or miss the tourney, the top seeds will be relieved that someone else can deal with the Broncos first.
The challenge right now for the tournament brackets are the guidelines to not have teams replay regular season games in the First or BCS Quarterfinal rounds, and LSU has played too many of these teams! Usually, LSU would play one of the winners of the First Round games, but potentially, the Tigers may have played three of the four already: Oregon, West Virginia, and maybe Arkansas. If that is the case, LSU may end up playing a sixth seed Houston in their BCS Quarterfinal.
And the Rose Bowl is not thrilled at how all this is working out, with their Big Ten and Pac-12 champs looking like First Round teams and Stanford potentially tied to the Orange Bowl playing ACC champ Virginia Tech. They may find a receptive trader in the Orange Bowl though. Miami may prefer an LSU versus Boise State/Big Ten Champ game than the VTU-Stanford match-up, especially if the Badgers win. But if that were guaranteed, the Rose Bowl would grab that game also. If Stanford-VTU was the Rose Bowl, all but one party will be happy. The happy would be Stanford, the Hokies getting a chance to play in Pasadena, the Orange and Rose Bowls. But the ACC may not be thrilled that their bowl tie-in would discard their champ.
So here are the 21 teams I see as still alive for the 10-team tournament:
ACC Champ: Virginia Tech or Clemson
Big Ten Champ: Michigan State or Wisconsin
Big XII Champ: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State
SEC Champ: LSU or Georgia
Pac-12 Champ: Oregon or UCLA
Big East Champ: West Virginia, Cincinnati, or Louisville
Non AQ-Conference Automatic Qualifier: Houston or TCU or neither
At-Large contenders (3 or 4):
Alabama
Stanford
Boise State
Arkansas
LSU (if they lose)
Oklahoma State (if they lose)
Virginia Tech (if they lose)
Kansas State
South Carolina
So here are the projections, as of now:
First Round:
Detroit: #7 Boise State (at-large) versus #9 Michigan State (Big Ten champ)
Seattle: #8 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)
Bowl Quarterfinals:
Rose: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Boise State/Michigan State winner
Orange: #4 Stanford (at large) versus #5 Virginia Tech (ACC Champ)
Sugar: #2 Alabama (at large) versus Oregon/West Virginia winner
Fiesta: #3 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus #6 Houston (Conf USA champ, non-BCS conference AQ)
Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis
National Championship in New Orleans
For both Boise State and Arkansas, they have to root for any team above them in a conference championship game to win out, because they don’t need any more competition for at-large bids from falling teams like LSU, Oklahoma State, or, to a lesser extent, Virginia Tech.
Right now, there are three slots available for at-large teams, and it seems like Alabama and Stanford have two of them sewn up. A fourth could open up if Houston loses, and TCU fails to make the top 16. The surprising thing out of the latest rankings was Houston jumped to a projected sixth seed, over Boise State. Certainly, that is huge for the Cougars to advance right to a BCS quarterfinal bowl and skip the First Round. But also, a potential third seed like Oklahoma State, though not discarding Houston, has to see that as a break over playing teams like Boise State, Oregon, Arkansas, or Wisconsin. As I have said before, no one wants to play Boise State, and if they are placed in a First Round game or miss the tourney, the top seeds will be relieved that someone else can deal with the Broncos first.
The challenge right now for the tournament brackets are the guidelines to not have teams replay regular season games in the First or BCS Quarterfinal rounds, and LSU has played too many of these teams! Usually, LSU would play one of the winners of the First Round games, but potentially, the Tigers may have played three of the four already: Oregon, West Virginia, and maybe Arkansas. If that is the case, LSU may end up playing a sixth seed Houston in their BCS Quarterfinal.
And the Rose Bowl is not thrilled at how all this is working out, with their Big Ten and Pac-12 champs looking like First Round teams and Stanford potentially tied to the Orange Bowl playing ACC champ Virginia Tech. They may find a receptive trader in the Orange Bowl though. Miami may prefer an LSU versus Boise State/Big Ten Champ game than the VTU-Stanford match-up, especially if the Badgers win. But if that were guaranteed, the Rose Bowl would grab that game also. If Stanford-VTU was the Rose Bowl, all but one party will be happy. The happy would be Stanford, the Hokies getting a chance to play in Pasadena, the Orange and Rose Bowls. But the ACC may not be thrilled that their bowl tie-in would discard their champ.
So here are the 21 teams I see as still alive for the 10-team tournament:
ACC Champ: Virginia Tech or Clemson
Big Ten Champ: Michigan State or Wisconsin
Big XII Champ: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State
SEC Champ: LSU or Georgia
Pac-12 Champ: Oregon or UCLA
Big East Champ: West Virginia, Cincinnati, or Louisville
Non AQ-Conference Automatic Qualifier: Houston or TCU or neither
At-Large contenders (3 or 4):
Alabama
Stanford
Boise State
Arkansas
LSU (if they lose)
Oklahoma State (if they lose)
Virginia Tech (if they lose)
Kansas State
South Carolina
So here are the projections, as of now:
First Round:
Detroit: #7 Boise State (at-large) versus #9 Michigan State (Big Ten champ)
Seattle: #8 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)
Bowl Quarterfinals:
Rose: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Boise State/Michigan State winner
Orange: #4 Stanford (at large) versus #5 Virginia Tech (ACC Champ)
Sugar: #2 Alabama (at large) versus Oregon/West Virginia winner
Fiesta: #3 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus #6 Houston (Conf USA champ, non-BCS conference AQ)
Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis
National Championship in New Orleans
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