Some more precincts heard from in the college football playoff debate

Last Friday, Terence Moore provided an opinion piece for cnn.com to voice his position that a college football playoff is bad, bad, and more bad. Many of his statements concern academics, and I cannot condemn anyone who values education. But I will examine his points also in light of a survey of 121 NFL players who supported a playoff by a margin of 70% to 27% over the current system.

Mr. Moore's argument is that everyone (fans, coaches, media) wants a playoff without regard to the players' needs. He argues that extra games take away time from studies, which is certainly true. But did he protest when college football went from eleven to twelve regular season games? Or when conferences added conference championship games? The former change affected every major college football team, whereas my college tourney proposal extends the season for four teams. Which had more impact? Of course, I noticed these increases in regular season games because it is starting to increase the total number of games under my tourney scenario, yet I heard no substantial outrage at the time.

And my proposal for the four teams that have extended seasons in my tournament is that: 1) spring football is defined across the board for a specified period of time; 2) any team that makes the semi-finals of my tourney reduces spring football by two weeks, and 3) any team that makes the finals of my tourney reduces spring football by four weeks.

Also, Moore makes the assertion that a playoff would occur at the stressful academic time of year. For one thing, there is no standard academic schedule. Schools on quarters will have very different finals weeks than those on semesters, so it is impossible to say definitively that a playoff would occur during those times. When I attended a Division II school that went to the national championship game in football, yes, it probably was a hectic schedule. They played basically 15 games over the 16 week semester, stretching from the start of the semester to finals week. In contrast, my tourney which tries to preserve the key New Year's bowls, would utilize more of the inter-session time than the Division II schedule does.

Also, as I noted last February, the fact that several Iowa players were hospitalized due to strenuous POST-season workouts (the strenuousness perhaps due to their poor bowl performance) does not indicate that the current system puts books in the hands of players when the bowl season stops.

Mr. Moore asks questions about playoffs like, "Where would you play these games? The site of current bowl games, you say, or maybe NFL stadiums, neutral sites or various places on the dark side of the moon? How many -- if any -- of these locations would be available?" Um, have you seen the college basketball tournament? Seems like there is no shortage of places to play for hoops, and football stadia, many used less than a dozen times a year, shouldn't really have any scheduling problems. Terrence, after the academic stuff, did you run out of material for you opinion piece?

Moore also asks, "If you use bowls, which ones? And since the bulk of the TV and advertising revenue would flow to playoff games, what would happen financially to the bulk of the bowls without playoff games?" Again, didn't the BCS bowls pretty much do this also, elevating four bowls and then four bowls plus a championship game? Yes, some bowls seem lacking of interest in the current system, yet they continue, and others seem to be doing quite well. I think the bowls would be doing just as well in a playoff scenario. Some with a sea of empty seats, some with nice attendance, just like it is now.

Next, Moore queries, "How would you choose the participants for a playoff system, and wouldn't that create more controversy?" Again, I am sure the same thing happens at other football levels of playoffs (e.g., Division II and III), and probably every other college team sport, but does anyone want to stop all college tournaments because there is a cutoff of those in and out?

Moore continues that March Madness is an academic disaster for hoops and so therefore would be bad for football. But I think the problem is more deep seeded than playoff sports versus non-playoff sports. After I attended a Division II school, I went to a Big Ten school, and I used to make extra money as a proctor for exams for a class that enrolled 1,000 students per semester. The class had a TA for a special discussion section for athletes, among other discussion sections. The TA told me that athletes from every other sport were serious attendees of the section, and hard working students, except for the men's hoops and football players. So, for the other sports that we had with nationally ranked teams in playoffs, like baseball and volleyball, the student athletes were student AND athletes, wheres the revenue guys tended to be, well, slackers. This is a bigger issue than playoffs versus no-playoffs, and can be addressed no matter how champions are determined.

Terrence also goes into attendance issues for Division I-AA tourney is less than their regular season games. Well, again, let me tell you my personal experience when my school went to the Division II championship game. I went to every home game that season except one, the first tournament game at home. Why? It was Thanksgiving, and I was at home. I am sure that students leave during the period of many of the college playoff games, plus it is getting darn cold too. In general, the majority of students at schools like this will not change their plans to attend a game, but when I went to a Big Ten school, I did not go home one Thanksgiving because I would miss two basketball home games when my season tickets were finally down in a prime location. The fanaticism of the fans is just different between these types of schools. When I was at the Division II school, a professor asked a friend's class during the time we were having a big rivalry game if the students would take two free tickets for our school's game or two free tickets for the Big Ten school 60 miles away (who were unranked but bowl bound), every hand indicated that students would take the tix for the Big Ten school.

Mr. Moore finishes with the question, "How many folks would travel multiple times to see their team during a playoff system involving the big boys?"For one thing, I recognize this and try to minimize travel expectations, for instance having the First Round in cities near one of the participating schools, and a single semi-final site in cities where I hope the locals would be excited to have the Final Four coming in to play and help buy up tix, and that the most devoted of the four schools will also show interest. This year, my semi's are in Saint Louis, and I hope after the Rams season, some local fans would like to take in a couple intriguing games of the college variety. And does the bowl season now seem a little sparsely attended? What better match-up as far as fan-hood than Oklahoma and Iowa, but I saw lots of empty seats for that one.

Mr. Moore, there are issues with the academics of many of the students playing football and men's hoops, and those issues are real and deep-seeded. But they are not related to playoffs. Come on Terrence, follow my tournament, check out the results of Oklahoma State versus Oregon after the January 2nd games are over. You'll get college football tourney fever, you know you will.....

A Tale of Two Brackets: Tournament Predictions

They are the most intriguing games, they are the least intriguing games. The top part of my tournament brackets, the section with top seeds LSU and Alabama, seems like four games just to officially stamp the tickets to the Saint Louis semi-finals for the Tigers and Tide. On the other side of the bracket, it seems like double the fun of the traditionally very anticipated 4 versus 5 seeds, because rather than a single 4 versus 5 game, to avoid a regular season rematch of #4 Stanford and #5 Oregon, both the games of #3 Oklahoma State versus the #5 Ducks and #4 Stanford versus #6 Arkansas seem like the toss-ups we come to expect of the 4/5 games. But it must be said, often the 4/5 games are big disappointments. You only have to go back to last season's Stanford win over Wisconsin in the least competitive game of the quarterfinal BCS Bowl round to see an example.

In the top half of the bracket, LSU will play the winner of Wisconsin and Clemson's game in Green Bay. I think this game will be more competitive than most people think, but I think the Badgers will win by 2.

In the other First Round game to determine Alabama's Sugar Bowl opponent, Boise State will travel to Pittsburgh to play West Virginia. The Mountaineers could put up a fight, but Boise State has too much experience and success in this tourney to lose. I say Broncos by at least 20.

If either Wisconsin or Boise State gets within a touchdown of their opponents in the quarterfinals, it will be a moral victory. A loss, but a moral victory. I say Bama beats BSU by 10, and LSU by 21 over Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl.

The other games will be less certain at the outset. CNNSI's Stewart Mandel likes Oklahoma State, but I think Oregon will win by 5 to advance to the Final Four. Oregon has had the tendency to not show up for some big games over the past couple of seasons. It seems like key guys get hurt and seem more than happy to call it a day. But this season, I think the Ducks want to prove something, although the Cowboys will put a fight. Whoa Nellie, this gad-gum game should be a good-un.

The other game of intrigue is Stanford-Arkansas. I see this game going two ways, an Arkansas blow-out, showing a combination of SEC West strength plus the fact that Stanford seems a little less than shiny since it beat SC. Or, I see Stanford pulling out a close one, as Andrew Luck rebounds with all of that Heisman hype over with. Stewart likes Arkansas, but I like Stanford by 1.

Saint Louis will get a twosome of SEC West/Pac-12 North semi-finals, with LSU-Stanford as game one, and Alabama-Oregon as game two.

Stewart Mandel of cnnsi.com predicts my tournament games

(actually, Stewart made picks for the real bowl games, and I transformed them into predictions for my playoffs; i.e., if the games turn out like he says, this is how my tournament will play out, for the First Round and BCS Bowl Quarterfinals, at least)

As part of Stewart Mandel's predictions of all of the bowl games this season, here are his predictions for the tournament's first round and quarterfinals. Last year, Stewart was 6-0 for these games, including correctly picking Ohio State would win by one point over TCU:

FIRST ROUND:


In Pittsburgh:
7 Boise State 40
10 West Virginia 27

In Green Bay:
8 Wisconsin 33
9 Clemson 27

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange:
1 LSU 44
8 Wisconsin 27

Rose:
4 Stanford 35
6 Arkansas 41

Sugar:
2 Alabama 45
7 Boise State 34

Fiesta:
3 Oklahoma State 48
5 Oregon 41

Semi-finals in Saint Louis:
LSU vs. Arkansas
Alabama vs. Oklahoma State

BCS Championship in New Orleans

Quick, turn on the "BCS College Football Tournament Selection Show"!

And now live from the ESPN studios, it's the BCS College Football Tournament Selection Show presented by Hawaiian Punch Light, with Rece Davis, Lou Holtz, and Mark May.

Rece, "College football fans, your wait is over. Yesterday, we had some surprises, and we are about to learn the ten teams that will play for the BCS Championship of college football. We will find out the teams that made it, where they will play, and the teams that did not make it. Lou, what are you most anxious to learn tonight as the teams are revealed?"

Lou, "Good golly, it is going to be a big thrill for these players and coaches to find out when and where they will play, but I want to know who is getting those last at-large spots. Will TCU and Boise State both make it, for a big payday for the Mountain West? Or will the SEC have a big day, and get four teams in with the University of South Carolina and the University of Arkansas taking the last two spots? Those schools play some really good football, and have a history of hiring brilliant coaches."

Mark, "Very funny coach. Houston's loss opened up the opportunity for TCU to make it into the tournament if they are ranked in the top 16. TCU is a fine program, but with two losses they should not be in the playoffs. Teams like Utah, Hawaii, TCU, and Boise always have made it in as undefeated teams, a two loss team should not make it. They lost to Baylor, not Oklahoma State, the TCU resume is just not that strong. They lost to SMU!"

Lou, "But Mark, it is your alma mater's conference, the Big East, opening the door for TCU, because the Big East teams are so poorly ranked. Oh Lawdy, I just can't wait to see who made it: Boise State, TCU, Arkansas, Kansas State, South Carolina, Michigan, even Baylor. Man, this is going to be exciting."

Mark, "Well, my school Pitt is on its way to the ACC, so the Big East won't have to rely on me defending it in the future. But I think everyone is happy 9 and 3 West Virginia looks like the Big East representative, because if it was 7 and 5 Louisville, that would be an embarrassment. Actually, I think West Virginia will not be a pushover in this thing."

Rece, "So, let's review the rules of the tournament. Six conference champions receive automatic berths, so these teams are in: Oregon from the Pac-12, LSU from the SEC, Oklahoma State from the Big XII, Clemson from the ACC, and Wisconsin from the Big Ten. The other remaining conference is the Big East, and they have a three-way tie at the top, which will be broken by the BCS standings. We assume it will be West Virginia ranked above both Cincinnati and Louisville."

"So since the Big East champion is unlikely to be in the top 16, if a conference champion from one of the other conferences makes the top 16, they are automatically included. Now we assume that TCU has the best shot, but Southern Miss may get some support, and oooh, how that late season loss to UAB hurt the Golden Eagles. They would be in such good shape if that had won that game."

"So if TCU makes the top 16, they are in, and then there are three additional at-large teams, which are the three highest remaining ranked teams. If TCU does not make it into the top 16, then the top four remaining teams will be at-large teams. So we assume Alabama and Stanford will be two of the at-large teams. But the the remaining two teams, that is the question."

Lou, "Rece, well I think Arkansas and South Carolina both had great seasons and deserve to be in it, in fact I think that the third at-large team should be Notre Dame, then all of my former teams would make it in."

Rece, "Coach, I don't think you have to worry about the Irish this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if Brian Kelly has them in the tournament soon, like he did getting the Cincy Bearcats into the playoffs for the two consecutive years prior to leaving for South Bend."

Mark, "I think that Arkansas and Boise State will make it in, TCU will come up short, and LSU and Alabama will be the top two seeds."

Lou, "I think the top two seeds will be LSU and Oklahoma State."

Rece continues, "And now, it is time to learn the which ten teams made the 2010-2011 BCS college football tournament, so we go to Brent Musburger in New Orleans. Brent..."

Brent, "You are looking...LIVE at the Superdome of New Orleans, Louisiana. Hi there everybody, we are at the site of the championship game. Ten teams will play to win here, and take home win the BCS championship trophy. And now, it is time for the Diet Mountain Dew Voltage bracket presentation. Let's go to tournament Commissioner Nelson, who will reveal this year's tournament. Commissioner..."

Commissioner, "Thank you Brent. It is my pleasure to announce the teams that will be playing in the 2011-2012 BCS College Football Tournament."

"In the first round, in Pittsburgh, the seventh seed and at-large from the Mountain West conference, the Broncos of Boise State University, will take on the tenth seed, and champion of the Big East conference, the West Virginia University Mountaineers."

"The other first round game will be played in Green Bay, Wisconsin, where the eighth seed, the Badgers of the University of Wisconsin, champion of the Big Ten Conference, will play the ninth seeded Clemson University Tigers, champions of the Atlantic Coast Conference."

"So let's move onto the BCS bowl quarterfinals. The winner of the Wisconsin/Clemson match-up will move on to the Orange Bowl, to play the top seed, the Louisiana State University Tigers, champions of the Southeastern Conference."

"The winner of the Orange Bowl, will take on the winner of the Rose Bowl, which will feature the fourth seed, for the second consecutive season, an at-large team from the Pacific Ten conference, the Cardinal of Stanford University, and at-large team from the Southeastern Conference, the sixth seeded University of Arkansas Razorbacks."

"The winner of the Boise State/West Virginia game will move on to the Sugar Bowl, to play the number two seed, and at-large team from the Southeastern Conference, the Crimson Tide of the University of Alabama."

"The Sugar Bowl winner will take on the winner of the remaining quarterfinal game, the Fiesta Bowl, which will feature the third seed, champion of the Big XII conference, the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who will play the fifth seed, and champion of the Pac-12 conference, the Ducks of the University of Oregon."

"The winners of the BCS quarterfinals will meet in Saint Louis for Football's Final Four, and the winner of the semi-finals will play for the BCS championship, right here, in New Orleans."

Brent, "Thank you Commissioner, it shapes up to be yet another exciting tournament. How close was Texas Christian to making it in to the tournament, and how close was it for the final at-large spot?"

Commissioner, "TCU finished 18th in the standings, and Kansas State finished behind Boise State, but it was not a narrow margin, but the Wildcats had a great season."

Brent, "And the one wrinkle I noticed was the fourth seed plays the sixth, and the third is slated to play fifth seed."

Commissioner, "Yes Brent, our guidelines of preventing regular season rematches during the First Round and BCS Quarterfinals were applied because Stanford and Oregon played each other in their Pac-12 schedule. Also notice that LSU could not play in the Sugar Bowl, because of our guidelines that a team cannot have home state advantage in more than one tournament game, and the championship is right here in New Orleans."

Brent, "Thank you Commissioner, and now back to the studio."

(microphones pick up unsuspecting continuing conversation)

Brent, "Good job Commissioner. You did fine."

Commissioner, "I think I looked fat."

Brent, "No, that suit did an excellent job of slimming you."

Commissioner, "Thanks. Doesn't that Rece Davis look like Peter Brady?"

Brent, "Mmm, who is he?"

Commissioner, "You know, from the Brady Bunch?"

Brent, "No, who is this Rece Davis of whom you speak?"

(back to the studio)

Rece, "Thank you Brent and thank you Commissioner. Well, no TCU, but Boise will represent the Mountain West as an at-large team. My first reaction is that no games look like a cake walk. There will be a lot of good match-ups. The one that, based on their history, might be the most obvious favorite is Boise State over West Virginia, and that is based mostly on their history in the tournament"

Lou, "That's right, believe me, no one wants to play Boise State. Five years ago they beat Oklahoma and Ohio State, two years ago they beat Cincinnati and Texas, playing without Colt McCoy. Chris Peterson always has his team ready with gimmicks and tomfoolery. Believe me, the top six teams are a bit relieved that they first have to go to Pittsburgh to face West Virginia."

Rece, "In fact, look at this graphic. If you had said six years ago, at the start of the ten team era, that one of the leaders in tournament appearances would be Boise State..."

Lou, "Man, I would have said, 'You're nuts, you are a crazy person!'"

Rece, "So here is the list, Boise State only trailing Ohio State and Oklahoma over the past six seasons..."

Ohio State	4	2006, 2007, 2009, 2010
Oklahoma	4	2006, 2007, 2008, 2010
Florida	3	2006, 2008, 2009
USC	3	2006, 2007, 2008
Virginia Tech	3	2007, 2008, 2010
Alabama	3	2008, 2009, 2011
Boise State	3	2006, 2009, 2011
LSU	3	2006, 2007, 2011
Oregon	3	2009, 2010, 2011
Wisconsin	3	2006, 2010, 2011
Cincinnati	2	2008, 2009
TCU	2	2009, 2010
Texas	2	2008, 2009
Arkansas	2	2010, 2011
Stanford	2	2010, 2011
West Virginia	2	2007, 2011
Auburn	1	2010
Connecticut	1	2010
Georgia	1	2007
Georgia Tech	1	2009
Hawaii	1	2007
Iowa	1	2009
Kansas	1	2007
Louisville	1	2006
Michigan	1	2006
Missouri	1	2007
Penn State	1	2008
Texas Tech	1	2008
Utah	1	2008
Wake Forest	1	2006
Oklahoma State	1	2011
Clemson	1	2011

Mark, "But remember, the game will be in Pittsburgh, a city pretty familiar to me, because as a conference champion automatic qualifier, West Virginia received the 'regional advantage.' Now this is the third time that Pittsburgh has hosted a First Round game, and the previous two times, the team with the regional advantage won: West Virginia over Kansas four seasons ago, and Penn State over Cincinnati in 2008. So, don't count out the Mountaineers. Truthfully, this could be a close game, or Boise State could make it one ugly day for West Virginia if they grab the momentum early."

Rece, "And one consequence of going to ten teams was the advent of the First Round games, which cities love to get, and has really taken the tournament across the country. You can see over the last six seasons, Pittsburgh now matches Charlotte with three First Round games. But the new site is one the tournament has always wanted, a game in 'the frozen tundra,' Lambeau Field, Green Bay, where Wisconsin will play Clemson."

First Round Game Sites During the Ten Team Era:

Charlotte	3
Pittsburgh	3
Boise	1
San Diego	1
Seattle	1
Cincinnati	1
Dallas Green Bay	1 1

Lou, "I think this is great for college football, to play a game at such a football shrine. But poor Clemson has to make a trip there. Clemson showed me though in the ACC Championship Game, don't take them for granted."

Mark, "I think that is the key, Wisconsin will be favored, but they have not always put teams away when they should. They were up 21-7 over Michigan State, yet things turned around and it went down to the wire. I really think the Tigers can win this game."

Rece, "So the winner of Wisconsin and Clemson will get the decided challenge of playing the number one seed, the mighty Tigers of LSU. Coach, can LSU be vulnerable?"

Lou, "LSU is one the greatest teams I have ever seen, but Wisconsin has a lot of great offensive threats, and I think they could beat LSU if they play a perfect game. Clemson, well, they may be challenged to beat a team like LSU."

Rece, "The winner of the Orange Bowl will play the winner of the Rose Bowl, between at-large teams Stanford and Arkansas. Mark, what do you think of this match-up?"

Mark, "This one is very evenly matched. Give so much credit to Stanford's players and coaches, two years in a row as the fourth seed is quite an accomplishment. They can make some noise in this tournament, as they made the Final Four last season by pulling away from Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. But they may have peaked during their win at USC, they seem a little banged up, and maybe Andrew Luck is feeling some of the pressure of expectations. Bobby Petrino has Arkansas back in the tournament for the second year in a row, and it has to be a thrill to play in Pasadena. Arkansas is hoping that the Saint Louis Semi-Finals will feel like an SEC West reunion."

Rece, "On the other side of the bracket is Alabama, who will play a Sugar Bowl against the Boise State/West Virginia victor. Coach, can these teams keep up with Alabama?"

Lou, "Certainly, Boise State has proven it can play with anybody. But in the five previous seasons of the ten-team tournament, the second seed is five wins out of five to make the Final Four, so Alabama has history on its side."

Rece, "The Sugar Bowl winner will play the winner of the Fiesta Bowl, a battle of two conference champions, Oklahoma State and Oregon. Oregon now has the longest active string of tournament appearances, at three straight. Oklahoma State has not been in the tournament in a while, and its most memorable appearance was back in 1985's Cotton Bowl, let's look at some video. Quarterback Rusty Hilger gave the eighth seeded Cowboys an early lead over top seed BYU. But there is BYU's quarterback Robbie Bosco, limping through an injury, but bringing the Cougars to tie the game before regulation. But, here is OSU kicking a field goal for an overtime victory to beat the number one seed."

Lou, "And this was the same year Doug Flutie and Boston College knocked off the second seed, Barry Switzer's Oklahoma. Third seed Washington was the highest ranked team to make the Final Four, along with Nebraska. Wow, that was a crazy year."

Mark, "One strange thing is that, unlike the second seed, the third seed is 0-5 over the past five seasons. It is a very interesting match-up, and Oregon is supremely talented, but sometimes they just don't seem to show up for big games if the going gets tough. This is an interesting game, because it is the only BCS Quarterfinal without an SEC West team."

Rece, "So let's review the tournament..."


First Round:

Pittsburgh: #7 Boise State (at-large) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Green Bay: #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #9 Clemson (ACC Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Wisconsin/Clemson winner

Rose: #4 Stanford (at large) versus #6 Arkansas (at-large)

Sugar: #2 Alabama (at-large) versus Boise State/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #3 Oklahoma State (Big XII champ) versus #5 Oregon (Pac-12 winner)


Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans

Rece, "It should be a great great tournament. For the Hall of Famer, Lou Holtz, and Mark May, good night from the ESPN studios."

Three BCS projections give the nod to Arkansas and Boise State as the last two teams into my tourney

Yes, the rest of the "sane" BCS world is fixated on the battle for number two between Oklahoma State and Alabama. In fact, two of the sites that I rely upon to provide unofficial BCS projections say that Oklahoma State will get number two, so I can also read some Alabama fans hatred at the speculation in the comments sections. Wow, a little intense fellas, why don't you go out and poison some trees. Come on Tide, you had your chance AT HOME, in the current system of every week matters, OSU deserves their chance.

And I don't know the methodology of the projections, but I think it should be more probabilistic than "OSU is number 2" or "Bama made it in." As a statistician, I guess I think it should be simulation based, and OSU has x probability, et cetera. We don't know how people will vote, but we can make assumptions and simulate it.

But in my world, the Cowboys and Tide are comfortably into my tournament, and the drama surrounds whether TCU make the top 16 and get in, and based on the projections, it appears they will not. Then, in addition to Stanford and Alabama, who will get the last two at-large berths? All three projections indicate that Boise State and Arkansas will be the last two teams into the tournament. Kansas State seems to be the team that will be on the outside, and wishing I had a two team per conference limit.

Here are three tournament projections based on BCS projections. Note in the first, the Sugar will be feverishly trying to get the Rose to swap games.

PROJECTION #1: bcsguru.com

First Round:

Pittsburgh: #7 Arkansas (at-large) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Green Bay: #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #9 Clemson (ACC Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Wisconsin/Clemson winner

Sugar (or Rose): #4 Stanford (at large) versus #6 Boise State (at-large)

Fiesta: #2 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus Arkansas/West Virginia winner

Rose (or Sugar): #3 Alabama (at-large) versus #5 Oregon (Pac-12 winner)


Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans
-----------------

PROJECTION #2: bcsknowhow.com

First Round:

Seattle: #7 Oregon (Pac-12 winner) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Green Bay: #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #9 Clemson (ACC Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Wisconsin/Clemson winner

Rose: #4 Stanford (at large) versus #6 Arkansas (at-large)

Fiesta: #2 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus Oregon/West Virginia winner

Sugar: #3 Alabama (at-large) versus #5 Boise State (at-large)


Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans

-----------------

PROJECTION #3: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/bcs

First Round:

Seattle: #7 Oregon (Pac-12 winner) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Green Bay: #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #9 Clemson (ACC Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Wisconsin/Clemson winner

Rose: #4 Stanford (at large) versus #5 Arkansas (at-large)

Sugar: #2 Alabama (at-large) versus Oregon/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #3 Oklahoma State (Big XII champ) versus #6 Boise State (at-large)


Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans

Saturday is over!: Five teams in, eleven other teams alive, five eliminated from tourney contention

Twenty-one teams were alive for the tournament at the start of the week. As of now, we are at....16!

The Big East went according to form, but Houston's loss created questions questions questions? Will TCU, or even the impressive Southern Miss, whom I had discounted, take the Houston's slot? Or will a spot now open to allow both Boise and Arkansas?

Get ready boys, we may be in for a bumpy ride!


Log into Orbitz and look into some flights: They are in (5)!:

Pac-12 Champ: Oregon
SEC Champ: LSU
ACC Champ: Clemson
Big Ten Champ: Wisconsin
Big XII Champ: Oklahoma State

You can pencil in some tournament time: They are practically in (1):
West Virginia

We will keep your resume on file: They are probably out (2):
Cincinnati
Louisville

Hand in your uniforms: They are out (5)!

UCLA eliminated 49-31 in Pac-12 championship
Houston eliminated 49-28 in Conference USA Championship
Georgia eliminated 42-10 in SEC Championship
Oklahoma eliminated 44-10 in their Big XII finale
Michigan State eliminated 42-39 in the Big Ten Championship

They still have a chance (8):

Non AQ-Conference Automatic Qualifier: TCU or none

At-Large contenders (3 or 4):
Alabama
Stanford
Boise State
Arkansas
Virginia Tech (if they lose)
Kansas State
South Carolina