Week 4, 2010: Texas Tumbles; Conference Outsiders Rise

After a week of a little seeding scrambling but no real changes to my beloved fake college tourney, UCLA went into Austin and showed the Longhorns, "See, this is what you're missing by not joining the Pac-10." The Texas loss dropped them out of this week's "if the season ended today, the tourney would be..." and I expected Big XII counterpart Nebraska to step back in. But based on the projections of our good friends at BCSguru.com, the computers still are unkind to the Huskers. The algorithm must be "if team=Nebraska then add 100 to their ranking." So instead, LSU joins the projected tourney for the first time this season. Welcome Tigers!!

The other surprise in this weeks BCSguru.com projections is that lil ol' Boise State rises up to number two and their comrades in outsider-ship, the Horned Frogs of TCU, went up to number four. The computers must have appreciated that the Broncos took on Oregon State. And I have to admit, I never seem to anticipate BCS standings very well, but I would think as the easy part of their schedules start, and the big-time programs stop playing twinkies, that BSU and TCU's rise may be temporary.

Sometimes I don't see the sense of the powers that run the conferences. JoePa and friends didn't want the Nebraska-added Big Ten to have geographic divisions. Well, I guess Penn State didn't want to be in the weaker Big Ten East. Because for all of the bravado of PSU and UMich, the rankings of BCSguru.com indicate what is obvious. Ohio State is highest ranked, but the next three would come from the Big Ten West: Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Then come the Wolverines and Nittany Lions. Dig a little deeper for the last team in the BCSguru rankings, and who do you find, Northwestern, Big Ten West team. Come on Big Ten, look at a map! OSU, PSU, the Michigan schools and the Indiana schools in the East, the Illinois schools, Huskers, Hawkeyes, Gophers, and Badgers in the West. We don't need divisions reminiscent of the NHL's old Prince of Wales and Campbell Conferences. You have twelve schools and call yourselves the Big Ten, don't embarrass me any more; sometimes I have to leave the Midwest and defend this stuff!

Also, people try to make it sound exciting that Michigan and Ohio State could meet in the last regular season game, and then "they can meet the next week in the Big Ten championship!!" Wow, thrilling. Now, make it a showdown game to decide who will win their division, and I will have my Pringles and diet root beer ready a month ahead of time.

I recently saw a report about which states produce the most NFL players. A traditional football maxim was that four states played high school football at another level above the rest: California, Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. I once read an article after Ohio State coach Woody Hayes punched Clemson player Charlie Bauman that Hayes' success as a coach was mostly due to coaching in a powerful football state and having no real in-state competition. Florida then jumped into the mix of big time high school football states in the 1980's. If getting players into the NFL is one measure of state strength, then the top states are:It would be interesting to do the same analysis for college basketball, but would be more difficult because basketball players travel around now like they are lost in the desert, looking for prep schools. Is Kevin Garnett from South Carolina or Illinois, where he spent senior year of high school in Chicago? Just like Ohio State fans should demand football excellence, with a state full of talent, and a lack of in-state recruiting rivals, that is how I feel my alma mater Illinois should be in basketball: a boat load of in-state talent, and while DePaul is in a deep state of hoops torpor, no one in state to recruit against.

So this week, there will be some good 'uns in the world of college football. Alabama, five weeks at #1 (halfway to matching Debby Boone's "You Light Up My Life") is going against #3 Florida. This could be the first of two or even three meetings between the two SEC powerhouses. Also, the pollsters' top ten teams of Oregon and Stanford go at it in what may be the Pac 10 game of the year. Texas can get back in the mix playing Oklahoma. And in games that may define pretenders or successors to their conference thrones, Wisconsin-Michigan State and Iowa-Penn State go toe to toe.





To the latest tourney projections!:

"In college football, one day you're in, and the next day you're out." -Curly Lambeau

OUT-Texas
IN-Louisiana State

FIRST ROUND:

In Corvallis:#7 Oregon (Pac-10 champ) vs #10 West Virginia (Big East champ)

In Atlanta: #8 Louisiana State (at-large) vs #9 Miami (FL) (ACC champ)


BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals)

Sugar: #1 Alabama (SEC champ) vs Miami (FL) or Oregon/West Virginia winner

Rose: #4 Texas Christian (at-large) vs #5 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)

Orange: #2 Boise State (non-BCS conference automatic) vs LSU or Oregon/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #3 Florida (at-large) vs #6 Oklahoma (Big XII champ)

Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL

BCS Championship in Glendale AZ

	Pre	1	2	3	4
Alabama	1	1	1	1	1
Boise State	5	2	6	6	2
Florida	3	6	5	4	3
TCU	6	5	8	7	4
Ohio State	2	4	3	3	5
Oklahoma	7	n/a	4	5	6
Oregon	9	8	7	8	7
Louisiana State	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	8
Miami (FL)	n/a	9	9	9	9
West Virginia	n/a	10	10	10	10
Texas	4	3	2	2	n/a
Nebraska	n/a	7	n/a	n/a	n/a
Virginia Tech	8	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Pittsburgh	10	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Week 3, 2010: Solving the 18 game NFL schedule dilemma

I was looking at the site stats of this blog, and, over its history, I have had hits from the US, Canada, and 3 hits from Bulgaria. I figure "College Football Tourney" must translate into "Free Internet Porn" in Bulgarian.

Anyway, since I am proposing a solution of a feasible college football tournament to sooth the desperate masses, I figured I'd address and solve an NFL debate while I am at it: "To go to 18 games or not to go to 18 games, that is the question." Now, I really don't want to see the NFL going to 18, purely because of selfish reasons. I like cheap(ish) pre-season tickets, and not only will the availability go down by half, but the demand for what games remain will drive pre-season prices up.

But if the NFL decides to go to 18, the players argue that they are physically beaten up after 16 as it is. So here is my solution: players can only play in 16 of the 18 games. NFL player reps get a roster increase that approximates the 12.5% increase in games, and a new strategy develops of who is held out for each game. It may help players' health too, in that a player who is banged up may, today, be right back the next game, whereas, in the new system, the team may decide to give him the two games off while he is sub-optimal. And let the healing begin!

One interesting aspect of 18 games is a possible old school baseball approach to scheduling. If an NFL team played every other team in its conference, and the division foes twice, guess what, it equals 18 games. Voila! Not only a wonderful balance, but conferences would only meet in the Super and Pro Bowls. Please please, thank me later...

One aspect that it would be interesting to do with simulations is how good will those weeks with the 17th and 18th games be? Will it lead to more or less meaningful games in the final weeks? Less reliance on tie-breakers would be an obvious result of including two more contests per team, but maybe the vast majority of games the last two weeks may end up pre-season quality anyway.

And this whole concussion discussion is the rage in NFL circles these days. Why can't we come up with a solution?! After all America, we talked about sending a man to Mars, we can do this can't we? Option 1: Only the offense gets to wear helmets! Option 2: Add a layer of twelve inches of foam to all helmets. Safer, and all of the players look like they sport a 1970's 'fro.

Back to college football, and little change in the tournament projections from weeks two to three, based on the rankings by our good friends at BCSguru.com. I expected Nebraska to jump back into my ten-team tourney after their impressive win over Washington, and Oklahoma to go back out with their narrow Air Force win. But Nebraska stays on the outside looking in, still with poorer computer scores.

And I guess the rule of thumb will be that Boise State and TCU will do what they can to get into the tournament, but their big-time foes that are supposed to make them "legit" will continue to not impress. Oregon State didn't exactly destroy Louisville, and when I saw Virginia Tech trailing East Carolina, it seemed 1980 Reagan-esque ("Here we go again"), although the Hokies eventually pulled away. And what is the deal with a school named "East Carolina" anyway? Sounds like an answer Larry would give to Moe when asked, "Hey knucklehead, what Carolina university do you attend?" Upon Larry answering "East," I can see Moe slapping him and saying, "Why I oughta..."


So here are the new tournament projections:

"In college football, one day you're in, and the next day you're out." -J.K. McKay

OUT-None
IN-None

FIRST ROUND:

In Pittsburgh:#7 Texas Christian (at-large) vs #10 West Virginia (Big East champ)

In Corvallis: #8 Oregon (Pac-10 champ) vs #9 Miami (FL) (ACC champ)


BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals)

Sugar: #1 Alabama (SEC champ) vs Oregon/Miami (FL) winner

Fiesta: #4 Florida (at-large) vs #5 Oklahoma (at-large)

Orange: #2 Texas (Big XII champ) vs Texas Christian/West Virginia winner

Rose: #3 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs #6 Boise State (non-BCS conference automatic)

Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL

BCS Championship in Glendale AZ

	Pre	1	2	3
Alabama	1	1	1	1
Texas	4	3	2	2
Ohio State	2	4	3	3
Florida	3	6	5	4
Oklahoma	7	n/a	4	5
Boise State	5	2	6	6
TCU	6	5	8	7
Oregon	9	8	7	8
Miami (FL)	n/a	9	9	9
West Virginia	n/a	10	10	10
Nebraska	n/a	7	n/a	n/a
Virginia Tech	8	n/a	n/a	n/a
Pittsburgh	10	n/a	n/a	n/a

Week 2: ACC's lost weekend betrays Boise State's reverie

That sound you heard after James Madison beat Virginia Tech was Boise State falling in the BCS rankings. According to our good friends at BCSguru.com, the projected BCS standings now place Boise State at #6 rather than #2, last week's result. The computers also betrayed non-BCS school TCU, who dropped to #8.

The Hokies were part of an ACC lost weekend that featured losses by Miami, Florida State, and defending champ Georgia Tech. In my tournament projections, Miami still retains the highest BCS rankings for an ACC team this week, so that they remain as #9 seed.

Actually, there was not much movement in and out of my projected tourney this week, aside from seeding scrambling due to the computers. Oklahoma moves back in and Nebraska is out because the Sooners get more computer love.

The week upcoming may not be all that interesting in college football unless the unranked teams rise up to defeat their ranked foes. Only Iowa and Arizona play in a game featuring two ranked teams.

In my tourney, challenges are created due to my "only one home state advantage game" with semi-finals in St Pete. Florida and Miami cannot play in the Orange Bowl, and in a first round game with a regional advantage, I have to shuffle the Canes off to Atlanta. And given that Miami fans find it challenging to follow their team out of the Dade County area, they probably wouldn't feel much of a regional advantage.

So here are the new tournament projections:

"In college football, one day you're in, and the next day you're out." -Red Grange

OUT-Nebraska

IN-Oklahoma

FIRST ROUND:

In Corvallis:#7 Oregon (Pac-10 champ) vs #10 West Virginia (Big East champ)

In Atlanta: #8 Texas Christian (at large) vs #9 Miami (FL) (ACC champ)


BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals)

Sugar: #1 Alabama (SEC champ) vs TCU/Miami (FL) winner

Fiesta: #4 Oklahoma (at large) vs #5 Florida (at large)

Orange: #2 Texas (Big XII champ) vs Oregon/West Virginia winner

Rose: #3 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs #6 Boise State (non-BCS conference automatic)

Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL

BCS Championship in Glendale Arizona

	Pre	1	2
Alabama	1	1	1
Texas	4	3	2
Ohio State	2	4	3
Oklahoma	7	n/a	4
Florida	3	6	5
Boise State	5	2	6
Oregon	9	8	7
TCU	6	5	8
Miami (FL)	n/a	9	9
West Virginia	n/a	10	10
Nebraska	n/a	7	n/a
Virginia Tech	8	n/a	n/a
Pittsburgh	10	n/a	n/a

Week 1: Broncos go BCS busting, while Big East focusing like a laser on the #10 seed

Well, the college season started with cheering crowds, fresh faces, and another new coach at Notre Dame. Somewhere, a young 18 year-old attended their first tailgate party in a sun-filled picturesque campus, learned to use a keg, began the process of learning the school songs, was grabbed and placed into body surfing duty, and later spent all the money their parents gave them for the semester, losing it in on-line poker. Ahh, the joys of freshman year.

In the most famous Bronco drive since A.C. and O.J. rode the California freeways, Boise State won as dramatic a first week game as one can think of. So the big question, would the game have the same impact in my ten team tourney as it does under the current system? Well, my interests are 96% about my tourney and 4% real life, and it was a huge, dramatic game to me. For a tourney, the impact was that a BSU loss may eliminate them from the tourney, whereas winning puts the Broncos in line for a top two seed. Either way, that game gave me the "what a game!" buzz since.

Well, I can't guarantee the Big East champ will be the #10 seed in my tourney, but they are making a run for it. Of course, maybe it will be like last season, when no Big East team was in the 2009 pre-season top 25, yet the Cincy Bearcats (bearcats are actually binturongs, a viverid carnivore, FYI) finished the regular season at BCS #3. But with Pitt losing to Utah, Cincinnati losing to Fresno State, and UConn losing to Michigan, it seems like the Big East champ may not have the greatest winning percentage.

That Bearcat thing reminds me when I was a mammalogy grad student, and I had a skin of a raccoon dog out on top of the cabinets in the collection at the Museum of Natural History. An anthropology professor (and tenured at that) walked through the room, and asked what it was. When I told him it was a raccoon dog, he said, "I didn't know they could breed!" Had to explain it was just a species name, not a hybrid.



For the projections of the BCS standings that I use for my tourney, which are not officially released for weeks, I will use the information from my good friends at BCSguru.com. Actually, I don't know them at all, but it seems like big-time internet people always say, "our good friends at blank.com, blah blah blah." Since I am a pretend big-time blogger with a pretend college tourney, it seems fitting to have a pretend friendship with the BCSguru.com guy.

The BCS Guru is "taking the BS out of BCS." Well, that leaves only "C," but I guess it is a better catch phrase than, "puts the 'fun' into 'funeral.'" We like BCS Guru because he combines all the polls and computer rankings, so I don't have to do it. Wikipedia says, "Finding a true guru is often held to be a prerequisite for attaining self-realization." Wow, what is self-realization? Wikipedia says, Abraham Maslow defined self-realization as “the impulse to convert oneself into what one is capable of being.” Wow, I guess I am glad I found BCSguru.com!

So here are the new tournament projections:

"In college football, one day you're in, and the next day you're out." -Bo Schembechler

OUT-Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh
IN-Nebraska, Miami (FL), West Virginia

FIRST ROUND:

In Pittsburgh:#7 Nebraska (at-large) vs #10 West Virginia (Big East champ)

In Corvallis: #8 Oregon (Pac-10 champ) vs #9 Miami (FL) (ACC champ)


BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals)

Sugar: #1 Alabama (SEC champ) vs Oregon/Miami (FL) winner

Rose: #4 Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs #5 Texas Christian (at-large)

Orange: #2 Boise State (non-BCS conference automatic) vs Nebraska/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #3 Texas (Big XII champ) vs #6 Florida (at-large)

Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL

BCS Championship in Glendale Arizona