Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Week 4, 2010: Texas Tumbles; Conference Outsiders Rise

After a week of a little seeding scrambling but no real changes to my beloved fake college tourney, UCLA went into Austin and showed the Longhorns, "See, this is what you're missing by not joining the Pac-10." The Texas loss dropped them out of this week's "if the season ended today, the tourney would be..." and I expected Big XII counterpart Nebraska to step back in. But based on the projections of our good friends at BCSguru.com, the computers still are unkind to the Huskers. The algorithm must be "if team=Nebraska then add 100 to their ranking." So instead, LSU joins the projected tourney for the first time this season. Welcome Tigers!!

The other surprise in this weeks BCSguru.com projections is that lil ol' Boise State rises up to number two and their comrades in outsider-ship, the Horned Frogs of TCU, went up to number four. The computers must have appreciated that the Broncos took on Oregon State. And I have to admit, I never seem to anticipate BCS standings very well, but I would think as the easy part of their schedules start, and the big-time programs stop playing twinkies, that BSU and TCU's rise may be temporary.

Sometimes I don't see the sense of the powers that run the conferences. JoePa and friends didn't want the Nebraska-added Big Ten to have geographic divisions. Well, I guess Penn State didn't want to be in the weaker Big Ten East. Because for all of the bravado of PSU and UMich, the rankings of BCSguru.com indicate what is obvious. Ohio State is highest ranked, but the next three would come from the Big Ten West: Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Then come the Wolverines and Nittany Lions. Dig a little deeper for the last team in the BCSguru rankings, and who do you find, Northwestern, Big Ten West team. Come on Big Ten, look at a map! OSU, PSU, the Michigan schools and the Indiana schools in the East, the Illinois schools, Huskers, Hawkeyes, Gophers, and Badgers in the West. We don't need divisions reminiscent of the NHL's old Prince of Wales and Campbell Conferences. You have twelve schools and call yourselves the Big Ten, don't embarrass me any more; sometimes I have to leave the Midwest and defend this stuff!

Also, people try to make it sound exciting that Michigan and Ohio State could meet in the last regular season game, and then "they can meet the next week in the Big Ten championship!!" Wow, thrilling. Now, make it a showdown game to decide who will win their division, and I will have my Pringles and diet root beer ready a month ahead of time.

I recently saw a report about which states produce the most NFL players. A traditional football maxim was that four states played high school football at another level above the rest: California, Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. I once read an article after Ohio State coach Woody Hayes punched Clemson player Charlie Bauman that Hayes' success as a coach was mostly due to coaching in a powerful football state and having no real in-state competition. Florida then jumped into the mix of big time high school football states in the 1980's. If getting players into the NFL is one measure of state strength, then the top states are:It would be interesting to do the same analysis for college basketball, but would be more difficult because basketball players travel around now like they are lost in the desert, looking for prep schools. Is Kevin Garnett from South Carolina or Illinois, where he spent senior year of high school in Chicago? Just like Ohio State fans should demand football excellence, with a state full of talent, and a lack of in-state recruiting rivals, that is how I feel my alma mater Illinois should be in basketball: a boat load of in-state talent, and while DePaul is in a deep state of hoops torpor, no one in state to recruit against.

So this week, there will be some good 'uns in the world of college football. Alabama, five weeks at #1 (halfway to matching Debby Boone's "You Light Up My Life") is going against #3 Florida. This could be the first of two or even three meetings between the two SEC powerhouses. Also, the pollsters' top ten teams of Oregon and Stanford go at it in what may be the Pac 10 game of the year. Texas can get back in the mix playing Oklahoma. And in games that may define pretenders or successors to their conference thrones, Wisconsin-Michigan State and Iowa-Penn State go toe to toe.





To the latest tourney projections!:

"In college football, one day you're in, and the next day you're out." -Curly Lambeau

OUT-Texas
IN-Louisiana State

FIRST ROUND:

In Corvallis:#7 Oregon (Pac-10 champ) vs #10 West Virginia (Big East champ)

In Atlanta: #8 Louisiana State (at-large) vs #9 Miami (FL) (ACC champ)


BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals)

Sugar:
#1 Alabama (SEC champ) vs Miami (FL) or Oregon/West Virginia winner

Rose: #4 Texas Christian (at-large) vs #5 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)

Orange: #2 Boise State (non-BCS conference automatic) vs LSU or Oregon/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #3 Florida (at-large) vs #6 Oklahoma (Big XII champ)

Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL

BCS Championship in Glendale AZ


Pre 1 2 3 4
Alabama 1 1 1 1 1
Boise State 5 2 6 6 2
Florida 3 6 5 4 3
TCU 6 5 8 7 4
Ohio State 2 4 3 3 5
Oklahoma 7 n/a 4 5 6
Oregon 9 8 7 8 7
Louisiana State n/a n/a n/a n/a 8
Miami (FL) n/a 9 9 9 9
West Virginia n/a 10 10 10 10
Texas 4 3 2 2 n/a
Nebraska n/a 7 n/a n/a n/a
Virginia Tech 8 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Pittsburgh 10 n/a n/a n/a n/a

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