Last season, I called the tournament "A Tale of Two Brackets," because the bottom half, with Oklahoma State versus Oregon and Stanford versus Arkansas, had so much intrigue, whereas top seeds LSU and Alabama seemed to tower over the rest of the field.
This season, it also seems a tale of two brackets, but for a different reason. The top six seeds all seem like they have a chance to make a run to win the championship in Miami, however, those six seem head and shoulders above seeds seven to ten, which seem unlikely to truly challenge the top of the field. This is not 2009-2010, when Iowa, at-large at tenth seed was also tenth in the BCS standings; hence, the top ten in the standings were the ten teams in my tournament. What this means is that although the top six teams all have a shot, certainly it is to benefit Notre Dame and Alabama to be able to cruise to the Semi-Finals.
So here are my predictions for this year's tournament:
First Round:
Atlanta-Florida State versus Wisconsin: Certainly Wisconsin's five losses would seem to make FSU the logical choice. However, Wisconsin lost three games in overtime, and the two others by three points, so not a bad record in the NHL point system. Plus Wisconsin seemed to have it together in their thrashing of Nebraska in the conference championship, whereas the Seminoles allowed 6-7 Georgia Tech to stick around and make it interesting. Plus, here is the big piece of info. The Big Ten has not exactly dominated my tournament, but they are 5-0 in First Round games since I went to ten teams, including three wins versus ACC champs, including Wisconsin's thrashing of Clemson last season.
Prediction: Wisconsin by 2
Tournament outlook: Either of these teams could put a scare into Notre Dame, but playing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl? Losing by 4 like Wisconsin lost to last season's top seed LSU would be a moral victory. And that is very unlikely.
Chicago-Northern Illinois versus Louisville: It feels like the mid-major bowl. Maybe NIU will be overwhelmed by the spotlight, but then again, MAC runner-up Kent State easily handled Big East runner-up Rutgers in NJ. So that tips it to the Huskies.
Prediction: Northern Illinois by 15
Tournament outlook: Again, seems like a big break for Notre Dame, who can struggle with the Pitt's of the world (hmm, maybe that is what John McEnroe meant back in the day at Wimbledon), but should be able to beat either of these teams on an off day. But I can imagine in my deepest thoughts a tourney shocker loss to NIU. And the loss of TV ratings, ticket values...
Quarterfinal Bowls:
Fiesta Bowl-Notre Dame versus Northern Illinois/Louisville: Okay, ND should be able to handle these guys, but what about the rest of the bracket? Luckily for the Irish, the SEC teams are both on the other side of the tourney. They would face the Oregon/Kansas State winner. That would be a toss-up for the Irish but certainly a challenging game for ND, with either Ducks or Wildcats on a roll after a big win. Though they have a winnable bracket, I don't see the top seed Irish winning it all
Prediction: Notre Dame by 9
Tournament outlook: Irish lose in Semi-Finals
Orange Bowl-Oregon versus Kansas State: At first glance it was the best game of the Bowls but then oddsmakers decided the Ducks were a big favorites. This seems like a nice place for the Ducks, who have the longest active run of four consecutive tournaments, but have been a bit of a thud in the last three, with a record of 2-3. First they lost to tenth seed Iowa, made it to the championship game the next season but lost to Auburn (that's Auburn, not Bama, LSU, or Florida; that may have been the best chance to knock off the SEC), and then last year lost a heart breaker to Oklahoma State. So maybe the Ducks will be comfortable here, with K-State, then ND, then probably an SEC team or Stanford in the Finals.
In this game, based on K-State's games against Baylor and Texas, I assumed that the Wildcats might play the Ducks close for three quarters, then Oregon would just run away from them late. However, Baylor and Texas have shown themselves to be a tough match-up for Pac-12 teams in their bowls, so Kansas State might just give the Ducks another tourney thud.
Prediction: Oregon by 5
Tournament outlook: Underdog Oregon win the National Championship!
Sugar Bowl-Alabama versus Florida State/Wisconsin: Alabama would have been the tournament favorite even if they were fourth seed, how it looked when Oregon and KState were still undefeated. But it would have been funner to watch Bama do it from the fourth seed than their typical high perch. They should cruise in this game.
Prediction: Alabama by 22
Tournament outlook: Alabama fans have to remember 2009-2010 when they were top seed, but lost to Tim Tebow and fifth seeded Florida in the Semi-Finals, after having beaten the Gators in the SEC championship game. That potential Semi-Finals match-up against Florida is winnable for Bama, but will be a struggle no matter what. I'll say Alabama squeaks by a tough Florida team, but it takes enough out of them to be vulnerable to Oregon in the Championship Game.
Rose Bowl-Florida versus Stanford: On paper, the Oregon-Kansas State game jumps out as a tourney highlight, but this game may be the most intriguing. Not because it will be close, but which direction will it take? Powerful SEC team whips studious Stanford in a predictable way, or does Stanford use their two consecutive Rose Bowl wins and back to back Final Fours to overpower a Florida team that has looked funky at times against lesser foe this season. It may not be close, but it will be interesting!
Stanford must feel like an SEC team over their three consecutive tourney appearances, with four of their five games against SEC teams. With losses in the Semi-Finals to Auburn in the Semi-Finals two seasons ago, a loss to LSU (after beating Arkansas in the Rose Bowl) in the Semi-Finals last season, they are 1-2 so far versus the SEC. However, the Pac-10/12 has held their own in the Rose Bowl against the SEC (USC whipped Bama in addition to last year's Cardinal win). All the more intrigue. And if Stanford wins again, guess who may be waiting at Cowboys Stadium in the Semi-Finals; Alabama.
Prediction: Florida by 11
Tournament outlook: Either team can make run to win it all, but Alabama stands in their way
Monday, December 31, 2012
Saturday, December 15, 2012
Stewart Mandel of CNNSI.com makes his annual predictions for my college tourney
(actually, Stewart makes picks for
the real bowl games, and I annually transform them into predictions for my
playoffs; i.e., if the games turn out like he says, this is how my
tournament will play out, for the First Round and BCS Bowl
Quarterfinals, at least)
As part of Stewart Mandel's predictions of all of the bowl games this season, here are his predictions for the tournament's first round and quarterfinals. Over the last two seasons, Stew (can I call ya Stew?) has been 10-2 in these games. Two years ago, Stewart was 6-0, and 4-2 last year.
FIRST ROUND:
In Atlanta:
7 Florida State 17
10 Wisconsin 14
In Chicago:
8 Northern Illinois 16
9 Louisville 10
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta:
1 Notre Dame 28
8 Northern Illinois 15
Orange:
4 Oregon 40
5 Kansas State 27
Sugar:
2 Alabama 46
7 Florida State 28
Rose:
3 Florida 27
6 Stanford 35
Semi-finals in Arlington, Texas:
Notre Dame vs. Oregon
Alabama vs. Stanford
BCS Championship in Miami
As part of Stewart Mandel's predictions of all of the bowl games this season, here are his predictions for the tournament's first round and quarterfinals. Over the last two seasons, Stew (can I call ya Stew?) has been 10-2 in these games. Two years ago, Stewart was 6-0, and 4-2 last year.
FIRST ROUND:
In Atlanta:
7 Florida State 17
10 Wisconsin 14
In Chicago:
8 Northern Illinois 16
9 Louisville 10
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta:
1 Notre Dame 28
8 Northern Illinois 15
Orange:
4 Oregon 40
5 Kansas State 27
Sugar:
2 Alabama 46
7 Florida State 28
Rose:
3 Florida 27
6 Stanford 35
Semi-finals in Arlington, Texas:
Notre Dame vs. Oregon
Alabama vs. Stanford
BCS Championship in Miami
Sunday, December 2, 2012
Quick, turn on the "2012 BCS College Football Tournament Selection Show"!
And now live from the ESPN studios, it's the BCS College
Football Tournament Selection Show presented by Java Monster Mean Bean, with
Rece Davis, Lou Holtz, and Mark May.
RECE: Well folks, here it is. At the beginning of this season, people
thought it would be a Mount Rushmore of college football royalty returning to
the college football tournament: USC, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Florida
State. Only Florida State cooperated
with those prognostications, but we ended up with some royalty of pretty high
esteem: the presumed number one seed,
Notre Dame. Coach, what do you think of
the Irish this season?
LOU: Notre Dame had a phenomenal season; undefeated, and we
assume they will be number one seed in the tourney. Boy, I remember Notre Dame fans looking at
the tournament schedule and seeing Indianapolis hosting the Semi-Finals next
season, and thinking, is there any way Notre Dame will be ready to play with
elite teams and get a chance to play down south in Indianapolis. I think most thought that was a nice dream,
but very unlikely. Well, here we are, a
year early, with Notre Dame not only in the tournament, but top seed. It is an amazing job by Coach Kelly.MARK: Coach, it is because Notre Dame’s AD came to his senses and hired a coach with a proven successful college head coaching track record, unlike the head coaches like Gerry Faust, Bob Davie, and Charlie Weis. Brian Kelly brought two Cincinnati teams to this tournament, including an undefeated team three seasons ago. So, he has done this before, a good hire for a program like Notre Dame. However, Coach Kelly’s teams went 0-2 in the tournament, losing a First Round game to Penn State and the Orange Bowl to Boise State, so he has something to prove too.
LOU: But Mark, the talent Coach Kelly had at Cincinnati pales
in comparison to this Notre Dame team.
The only obstacle I see if the brackets give them three SEC teams in a
row. Man alive, that would be tough for
any team, even an SEC team to do that.
RECE: That’s right,
that was the draw Stanford and Andrew Luck had last season; the Cardinal had to
win over Arkansas, then they lost to LSU so they could not face Alabama in the
championship game.
So guys, this is what we know. Ten teams will make it and these teams are
in: Alabama, Kansas State, Stanford, Wisconsin, and, we are pretty certain,
Louisville. Then certainly Notre Dame
will be there, as will Florida. We
thought it would be safe to include Oregon, in their fourth consecutive
tournament, but they may be a bubble team now, with the MAC champ Northern
Illinois in the mix, and Georgia performing so well yesterday, that Georgia may
find themselves above Oregon in the seedings.
So that leaves two spots, maybe for two at-large’s, which
could be Oregon, Georgia, and/or LSU, or one of those slots could go to a
non-automatic conference champion, Northern Illinois or Boise State. Coach, who is going to get those last spots in
the tournament?
LOU: I think Northern Illinois is going to make it in. It is going to be close, but the MAC had a
great season, and they even beat my alma mater Kent State, so they have to be
good. Northern Illinois not only could
be in the tournament, but also eighth seed, maybe playing near home against
Louisville in the First Round. For the
other slot, also very close, but I give a nudge to Oregon over Georgia. Oh boy, it is going to be close.
MARK: Coach, I think
it is going to be Georgia and Oregon getting the last spots, and no MAC
champ. After their gritty performance
yesterday, the Bulldogs have to be there.
And I think they will be in the top six seeds, sending Stanford to the
First Round. It will be tough for the
Cardinal to make it to their third straight Final Four from the seventh
seed.
And coach, if Northern Illinois makes in it in rather than
Georgia who came within five yards of being a top two seed, and Oregon, who
came within a goal post of being the top seed, then outrage will prevail. No way should those teams be out of the
tournament with Northern Illinois replacing either of them. It would be a
travesty and this tournament will take some heat.
LOU: Well Mark, I like it how the old NCAA basketball
tournament used to be, when you had to win you conference to qualify. Northern Illinois won their conference, and
the MAC had a great season, and Oregon and Georgia, great teams, but they had
their chance to win their conference and they did not. Plus, the tournament will make some changes,
in two years no automatic for the Big East, your alma mater Pitt’s
conference. If Louisville was out, then
there would be no problem, so that will be fixed.
MARK: Coach, the MAC’s track record doesn’t look that great
in hindsight. Northern Illinois lost to
Iowa by a point, but then again the Hawkeyes were a disappointment. Wins against Kansas and Rutgers are nice, but
those teams did not live up to expectations.
RECE: Guys, let’s go
to Indianapolis to a couple college football experts for their
perspectives. First SEC expert Watkins
Stevens, what are your thoughts about who will win the tournament this year?WATKINS: SEC SEC SEC!
RECE: So you think no
chance for Notre Dame?
WATKINS: I am
concerned about them. Bama struggled
with the quarterback from Texas A & M, that ND quarterback is slippery.
RECE: And our other expert Nye Allen, who seems to not be a
fan of the Irish and may be a bit tired of Alabama. So Nye, what would you think of a Notre
Dame-Alabama championship game?
NYE: HATE it! Won't
watch a minute of it.
RECE: But Mike & Mike’s Mike Golic's two sons are on the
Irish, he went to senior day and everything, it is very family-friendly, very
touching.
NYE: That stupid leprechaun ruins any family feeling! He is evil!
RECE: Watkins, any last comments?
WATKINS: SEC SEC SEC!
RECE: Weeks of games, lots of big plays, and it all boils
down to the next few minutes, when we find out which ten teams will make this year’s
college football tournament. And now, it
is time to learn the which ten teams made the 2012-2013 BCS college football
tournament, so we go to Brent Musburger in Miami. Brent...
BRENT: You are
looking...LIVE at the home of the Orange Bowl, and the site of the championship
game, Miami, Florida. Hi there
everybody, ten teams will play to win here, and take home the BCS
championship trophy. And now, it is time for the Planters Nut-rition bracket
presentation. Let's go to tournament Commissioner Nelson, who will reveal this
year's tournament. Commissioner..."
COMMISIONER: Thank you Brent. It is my pleasure to announce
the teams that will be playing in the 2012-2013 BCS College Football
Tournament.
In the First Round, in Atlanta, the seventh seed and
champion of the Atlantic Coast Conference, the Seminoles of Florida State
University, will take on the tenth seed, and champion of the Big Ten
conference, the University of Wisconsin Badgers.
The other First Round game will be played in Chicago, where the
eighth seed, the Huskies of the Northern Illinois University, champion of the
Mid American Conference, will play the ninth seeded University of Louisville
Cardinals, champions of the Big East.
So let's move onto the BCS Bowl quarterfinals. The winner of
the Northern Illinois/Louisville match-up will move on to the Fiesta Bowl, to
play the top seed, the University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish, independent automatic qualifiers.
The winner of the Fiesta Bowl, will take on the winner of
the Orange Bowl, which will feature the fourth seed, in the tournament for the
fourth consecutive season, an at-large team from the Pacific Ten conference,
the Ducks of the University of Oregon, and champions of the Big XII, the fifth
seeded Kansas State University WIldcats
The winner of the Florida State/Wisconsin game will move on
to the Sugar Bowl, to play the number two seed, and champion of the
Southeastern Conference, the Crimson Tide of the University of Alabama
The Sugar Bowl winner will take on the winner of the
remaining quarterfinal game, the Rose Bowl, which will feature the third seed,
at-large from the Southeast Conference, the University of Florida Gators, who
will play the sixth seed, and champion of the Pac-12 conference, the Cardinal
of Stanford University.
The winners of the BCS quarterfinals will meet in Arlington,
Texas for Football's Final Four, and the winner of the semi-finals will play
for the BCS championship, right here, in Miami.
BRENT: Thank you Commissioner, it shapes up to be yet
another exciting tournament. How close was it for Northern Illinois to make it
into the tournament, and who would have filled that final at-large spot?
COMMISH: Northern
Illinois finished 15th in the standings, and Georgia finished seventh, so
Oregon had a healthy lead for the second at-large spot. The Bulldogs are a great team, but I am happy
that the top six teams, plus four fine conference champions will play in this
year’s tournament.
BRENT: Thank you
Commissioner, and now back to the studio.
(microphones pick up unsuspecting continuing conversation)
BRENT: Good job Commissioner. You did fine.
COMMISH: I think my
voice sounded goofy, I think I may have low T.
RECE: Wow, a MAC shocker, Northern Illinois is in, Georgia
is out. Coach, your thoughts?
LOU: Congratulations to the Huskies! These are always tough choices, but I think
this will be a great tournament.
MARK: But understand Lou’s happiness and where it is derived
from. Not only is Northern Illinois a
winner, but the Irish play the winner of NIU and Louisville; so Notre Dame is a
big winner in this too. Even Alabama may
get an edge, playing Florida State or Wisconsin rather than Stanford. On another note, Stanford earned a top six
seed rather than a First Round game to participate in their third consecutive
Rose Bowl, a much easier path to make their third straight Final Four.
RECE: Let’s look at
this graphic. These are the leaders in appearances over the seven years of the
ten team era. Four teams move up to tie
for the lead with four appearances over the last seven seasons, Florida,
Alabama, Wisconsin, and Oregon:
Ohio State 4 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010
Oklahoma 4 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010
Florida 4 2006, 2008, 2009, 2012
Alabama 4 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012
Wisconsin 4 2006, 2010, 2011, 2012
Oregon 4 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012
USC 3 2006, 2007, 2008
Virginia Tech 3 2007, 2008, 2010
Boise State 3 2006, 2009, 2011
LSU 3 2006, 2007, 2011
Stanford 3 2010, 2011, 2012
Cincinnati 2 2008, 2009
TCU 2 2009, 2010
Texas 2 2008, 2009
Arkansas 2 2010, 2011
West Virginia 2 2007, 2011
Louisville 2 2006, 2012
Auburn 1 2010
Connecticut 1 2010
Georgia 1 2007
Georgia Tech 1 2009
Hawaii 1 2007
Iowa 1 2009
Kansas 1 2007
Michigan 1 2006
Missouri 1 2007
Penn State 1 2008
Texas Tech 1 2008
Utah 1 2008
Wake Forest 1 2006
Oklahoma State 1 2011
Clemson 1 2011
Notre Dame 1 2012
Kansas State 1 2012
Florida State 1 2012
Northern Illinois 1 2012
RECE: And if you think it is the same teams every year, four
new teams join for the first time in the seven years of the ten team era: Notre Dame, Kansas State, Florida State, and
of course Northern Illinois.
And one consequence of going to ten teams was the advent of
the First Round games, which cities love to host, and has really taken the
tournament across the country. This year, two new locations, Atlanta, because
Florida State has to go out of state with the title game in South Florida, and
Chicago.
First Round Game Sites During the Ten Team Era:
Charlotte 3
Pittsburgh 3
Boise 1
San Diego 1
Seattle 1
Cincinnati 1
Dallas 1
Green Bay 1
Atlanta 1
Chicago 1Rece, "So let's review the tournament..."
First Round:
Atlanta: #7 Florida State (ACC Champ) versus #10 Wisconsin
(Big Ten Champ)Chicago: #8 Northern Illinois (MAC Champ) versus #9 Louisville (Big East Champ)
Orange: #4 Oregon (at large) versus #5 Kansas State (Big XII Champ)
Sugar: #2 Alabama (SEC Champ) versus Florida State/Wisconsin winner
Rose: #3 Florida (at-large) versus #6 Stanford (Pac-12
Champ)
Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in Arlington, Texas
National Championship in Miami
RECE: It should be a great great tournament. For the Hall of Famer, Lou Holtz, and Mark May, good night from the ESPN studios
Thursday, November 29, 2012
It’s the final weekend! 19 teams, 10 weekend games, 10 slots, 1 wonderful tournament!
After last weekend, my tournament “seemed” to have 18 teams eligible going into the last weekend of the season. Well….now the MAC champ and Boise State are knocking at the door, so I have to add those three teams; 21. But, due to the wins by the teams above them, I am declaring Texas A & M and South Carolina out of consideration. So, 19 teams have a shot at 10 slots.
Thursday night starts the elimination phase to get down to ten teams for my college football tournament. Louisville and Rutgers will face off, the winner either certainly or definitely winning the Big East. Even though soon both will be heading (maybe running) in opposite direction to new conferences.
Prior to the weekend:
Unofficially Definitely In:
1) Notre Dame
Likely Definitely In:
2) Florida
3) Oregon
Winners are Definitely In:
4-5) Rutgers/Louisville (the latter Unofficially Definitely depending on Cincy)
6-7) Stanford/UCLA
8-9) Florida State/Georgia Tech
10-11) Nebraska/Wisconsin
12-13) Alabama/Georgia
14-15) Kansas State/Oklahoma (or KSU if they both lose)
Bubble teams, likely for one slot:
16) Louisiana State
12 or 13) SEC champ game loser
17-18) Kent State/Northern Illinois winner
19) Boise State if they defeat Nevada
During the weekend:
Projected seeding for automatic qualifiers and (likely qualifiers)
1.Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. (Florida)
4. ??????
5. ??????
6. Kansas State
7. Stanford
8. Florida State
9. (Louisville)
10. Wisconsin
Bubble teams (for two spots): Georgia, Oregon, Louisiana State, Northern Illinois, Boise State
Thursday night starts the elimination phase to get down to ten teams for my college football tournament. Louisville and Rutgers will face off, the winner either certainly or definitely winning the Big East. Even though soon both will be heading (maybe running) in opposite direction to new conferences.
Prior to the weekend:
Unofficially Definitely In:
1) Notre Dame
Likely Definitely In:
2) Florida
3) Oregon
Winners are Definitely In:
4-5) Rutgers/Louisville (the latter Unofficially Definitely depending on Cincy)
6-7) Stanford/UCLA
8-9) Florida State/Georgia Tech
10-11) Nebraska/Wisconsin
12-13) Alabama/Georgia
14-15) Kansas State/Oklahoma (or KSU if they both lose)
Bubble teams, likely for one slot:
16) Louisiana State
12 or 13) SEC champ game loser
17-18) Kent State/Northern Illinois winner
19) Boise State if they defeat Nevada
During the weekend:
Projected seeding for automatic qualifiers and (likely qualifiers)
1.Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. (Florida)
4. ??????
5. ??????
6. Kansas State
7. Stanford
8. Florida State
9. (Louisville)
10. Wisconsin
Bubble teams (for two spots): Georgia, Oregon, Louisiana State, Northern Illinois, Boise State
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Sneak big MAC attack may reduce the SEC’s tournament footprint, and ease Notre Dame’s road to the Final Four
At one time, I thought my tournament’s main issue would be
SEC overload. Or overdose, as the case
may be. Early in the season, having five
SEC teams, the champ plus all four at-large’s, seemed not only possible, but
likely. But Notre Dame’s emergence as an
independent that was likely to be an automatic qualifier seemed to reduce the
number to four SEC teams, with one less at-large spot available. The Oregon’s recent loss lowered their
conference standing, so that they might take an at-large spot, and it seemed
like three SEC teams would be included.
Now, a threat from an unanticipated source may reduce the SEC footprint
to two teams.
And it had all seemed so clear over the past weekend. The tourney would be the six conference
champs, Notre Dame also qualifying, and three remaining slots for at-large
teams. Florida and Oregon earned two of
those slots certainly with solid victories on Saturday over ranked foes. That left the seeming drama at, who would be
the final at-large? SEC champ game
loser, LSU, Texas A & M, South Carolina, maybe even Oklahoma?
Well, now with lots of losses from #10 to #25 in the
standings (#10 Florida State, #11 Clemson, #15 Oregon State, #16 Texas, #17
UCLA, #18 Rutgers, #19 Michigan, #21 Oklahoma State, #20 Louisville, #24
Arizona and #25 Washington), out of nowhere, MAC conference champ contenders
like Kent State and Northern Illinois are threatening to hit the top 16 to earn
a bid. I had a weekend with 23
tournament contenders, weeded out only four to get to 19, and now I have to add
two more back into the equation.
The effect of this potential emergence of another conference
champion to the ten team tourney is:
-SEC championship game changes dramatically from, “lose and
you still have at-large shot” to “win or go home (or go to non-tourney bowl).”
-Right now, a Nebraska/Florida State match-up seems in the
cards, but Kent/NIU entering the picture would have these teams playing the MAC
champ and the Big East champ instead.
-A Pac-12 win might raise Stanford to the top six and demote
the last at-large to seventh seed. It
seemed like the seventh seed team would be the only real threat to the top two
seed (aka, seeds eight to ten would not be able to beat a top two seed), and
when that was Stanford, that was good for the Irish. The guidelines to avoid rematches meant
Alabama or Georgia would meet the Cardinal
When seventh seed seemed to be the spot for the SEC champ game loser,
LSU, Texas A & M, or South Carolina, then it looked like these teams might
face the Irish if they already played the SEC champ. Now, ND might face the winner of Flor/Kent
State
-Have to scout locations for games if Kent or NIU would end
up with the “geographic advantage” (most likely created if Wisconsin beats
Nebraska and is seeded lower than these MAC teams).
Kent and Browns Stadium would fit, NIU at Soldier Field.
-Already people are pointing out Kent’s big loss to
Kentucky. But they did beat Rutgers, who
may also make the big party. And the
main thing is the entire MAC body of work, starting with Ohio’s win at Penn
State, that justifies the MAC deserves a shot.
In real life, they take up a BCS Bowl berth, in my little pretend world,
they would play in a First Round game. I
think they deserve the opportunity.
So this week, we can look forward to answers to these
questions:
-SEC championship will determine the second seed
-Rutgers versus Louisville, Pac-12 championship, ACC
championship, Big Ten championship
-The MAC Championship, and whether the winner will make it
into the top 16 to qualify for the tourney
-If the MAC champ cannot break in, will the team that loses SEC
championship fall below LSU for the last at-large?
-Can above Stanford Pac-12 win push them LSU or the SEC
loser to make the top six and avoid the First Round games?
Here are two scenarios, assuming the SEC loser is
approximately the same ranking as LSU, one without Kent State in the top 16,
and one where the Flashes make it:
FIRST ROUND:
In Oakland:
7 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
10 Rutgers (Big East Champ)
In Kansas City:
8 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)
9 Florida State (ACC champ)
BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Rose:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Nebraska/Florida State winner
Orange:
4 Oregon (at large)
6 LSU (at large)
Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Stanford/Rutgers winner
Fiesta:
3 Florida (at large)
5 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)
Semi-finals in Arlington, TX
Championship in Miami
OR
FIRST ROUND:
In Kansas City:
7 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)
10 Rutgers (Big East Champ)
In Atlanta:
8 Florida State (ACC champ)
9 Kent State (MAC champ)
BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Florida State/Kent State winner
Orange:
4 Oregon (at large)
5 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)
Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Nebraska/Rutgers winner
Rose:
3 Florida (at large)
6 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
Semi-finals in Arlington, TX
Championship in Miami
Friday, November 23, 2012
Dominoes will fall on Thanksgiving rivalry weekend
Thanksgiving weekend will feature a cornucopia of games that will go a long way to decide the participants and seedings of my ten-team tourney. What fun! And the menu of games will start a series dominoes that will fall, starting slowly and building up to a full-fledged clatter by Saturday.
So based on the latest info, here is the projected tourney:
FIRST ROUND:
In Oakland:
7 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
10 Rutgers (Big East Champ)
In Atlanta:
8 Florida State (ACC champ)
9 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)
BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Rose:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Florida State/Nebraska winner
Orange:
4 Oregon (at large)
6 LSU (at large)
Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Stanford/Rutgers winner
Fiesta:
3 Florida (at large)
5 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)
Semi-finals in Arlington, TX
Championship in Miami
And these teams, going into the weekend, hoping for a shot at the tourney:
SEC champ game loser (at-large)
LSU (at-large or SEC champ)
Texas A & M (at-large)
South Carolina (at-large)
Clemson (at-large; UPDATE; eliminated with loss to South Carolina)
Oklahoma (at-large or Big XII champ)
Oregon State (at-large: UPDATE; eliminated with loss to Oregon)
Texas (at-large: UPDATE; eliminated with loss to TCU)
Georgia Tech (ACC champ)
UCLA (Pac 12 champ)
Wisconsin (Big Ten champ)
Michigan (Big Ten champ UPDATE; eliminated by Nebraska win)
Louisville (Big East champ)
WEEKEND UPDATES:
Domino 1: Longhorns longshot chance dashed (21 teams left)
Texas was hoping for a splashy win to end the season at K-State to be a two-loss team and either end up with second place in Big XII or be in a four-way tie at the top. Oh yeah, the Longhorns would need to defeat TCU at home. Well, for the first time in years, TCU is not a factor to get into the tournament, but they still rose up to beat Texas and send the Longhorns waiting until next year. Post Thanksgiving, 21 teams still left for ten tourney slots.
Domino 2: Nebraska's win eliminates Michigan; Big Ten hope for respectability lives another week (20 teams left)
Iowa provided an upset scare. Sure, Nebraska was scared, but Michigan still could have lost to Ohio State to send the Huskers to Indy for the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin. But the real scare was at conference headquarters, who hope Nebraska can maintain a bit of respectability by being a two-loss, non #10 seed representative to the tournament, plus sell some tickets in Indy. Plus, the tournament committee did not look forward to Michigan making the tourney since they and Stanford both played Notre Dame, and UM might cause challenges due to the "avoid regular season re-matches" guidelines. But Husker win makes all well, removes OSU-Michigan as a domino game, and brings Nebraska a step closer to a return to the tournament in which it once was omnipresent.
Domino 3: LSU remains atop at-large bubble with wobbly win at Arkansas
LSU went into this game as perhaps the last team into the tournament as third of three at-large teams. Arkansas showed signs of being the team that during pre-season was considered a contender for either an at-large team or possibly SEC champ, but in the end, a few questionable 4th down decisions resulted in a stumble like a Bobby Petrino biking day trip. On one hand, LSU may have solidified their slot, or opened things up for Clemson, South Carolina, or Texas A & M to leap frog them. Time will tell, but for now, LSU is in the hunt.
Domino 4: Georgia extinguishes Tech upset thoughts early
Georgia and GTU's propensity to ruin each other's seasons (e.g., three seasons ago, Georgia's win demoted Tech from top six seed to 9th seed and loss to Ohio State in Cincy. But this year's impressive Bulldog win solidifies their chances. Although they want to take the SEC title, this win helps if they lose and need to grab an at-large bid
Dominoes 5 and 6: Big East leaders take one on the chin; Tenth seed is in their grasp
Sigh. Rutgers could have sewed up a Big East bid with a win and a Louisville loss, but Rutgers never was in the game. Louisville dramatically brought it to OT, only to lose at home anyway. Sigh. Lots of scenarios, but it just seems like Thursday's Rutgers-Louisville winner gets the tenth seed. If one of them is willing to win.
Domino 7: Oregon sends Oregon State's at-large bid packing (19 teams left)
It looked interesting at first, but the Ducks pulled away, and seems so have locked up tournament security with a big win. They seem certain for one of the at-large bids, but may have to play in the Pac-12 championship if UCLA wins. So it looks like Oregon in, Oregon State out.
Domino 8: Alabama-Auburn, no drama expected, none delivered
Yeah, there were a lot of scenarios if Alabama lost, but that was never a real option. They are in SEC finals, but they cannot be guarantee an at-large birth if they lose to Georgia because one-loss teams are starting to circle at-large bids.
Domino 9: Florida's surges to solidify at-large hopes, FSU's ACC opportunity awaits
This has been a game in the tourney's sites for weeks. A big hurdle for Florida's hope of an at-large bid and top four seed, and Florida State's chance to jump into the top six seeds and avoid a First Round game. Turnovers left home Seminole fans shaking their heads early, but although seeming in control, the Gators found themselves behind as FSU put up a 17-0 third quarter. Florida responded to pull out an easy win, and will grab an at-large bid and top four seed
Domino 10: Oklahoma's bedlam win leaves them in the hunt
Oklahoma seemed to grab big leads, and then the Sooners would tie it up. The OSU up again, on and on. It looked like the Cowboys would prevail to officially send KState to the tourney, and send OU home eliminated. But Oklahoma avoided tourney elimination, winning 51-48 in OT. Some help from Texas would help give Oklahoma a Big XII bid.
Domino 11: Stanford dashes the hopes of at-large dreamers everywhere
Once Florida and Oregon won, teams from across the country became UCLA fans. A UCLA win would send Oregon to the Pac-12 championship game and potentially keep the Ducks from grabbing one of what is anticipated to be three at-large slots. A Stanford win would seem to guarantee two of the three slots would be owned by Gators and Ducks. But the Cardinal prevailed, hoping to win conference and rise up to a sixth seed. But UCLA gets another chance against the Cardinal next week, and if coach Mora can use his NFL experience of within-season home and home adjustments, maybe UCLA will find a way into the tourney.
Domino 12: South Carolina completes day of SEC dominance over ACC; Clemson at-large bid is denied (18 teams left)
This has been another game in the tourney's sites for weeks. Clemson couldn't win the ACC, but hoped a one-loss season would have sent them to the tourney with the last of three at-large golden tickets. The day's events seem to make South Carolina's at-large hopes slim, but this USC won a back and forth contest with some drama, until the last minutes.
Domino 13: Texas A & M does their part to stay in at-large contention
The Aggies were heavily favored versus Mizzou, but an impressive performance will keep them in the at-large discussion. So if Oregon and Florida have two of three at-large slots, the SEC loser of Alabama-Georgia, LSU, Texas A & M, Clemson/South Carolina winner, and Oklahoma can all make a case for slot number three.
Domino 14: USC scaring Notre Dame and the tourney committee
Notre Dame lead throughout, but SC staying close had people nervous. Could a loss still keep ND in the hunt? The appeal of #1 ND with a nice road to Cowboys Stadium for the Semi-Finals had the tournament committee pacing nervously in their wood paneled luxurious board room. Notre Dame prevails, and #1 tourney seed awaits.
SOOOO....the weekend started with 22 teams with tournament dreams, and 18 remain.
So based on the latest info, here is the projected tourney:
FIRST ROUND:
In Oakland:
7 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
10 Rutgers (Big East Champ)
In Atlanta:
8 Florida State (ACC champ)
9 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)
BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Rose:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Florida State/Nebraska winner
Orange:
4 Oregon (at large)
6 LSU (at large)
Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Stanford/Rutgers winner
Fiesta:
3 Florida (at large)
5 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)
Semi-finals in Arlington, TX
Championship in Miami
And these teams, going into the weekend, hoping for a shot at the tourney:
SEC champ game loser (at-large)
LSU (at-large or SEC champ)
Texas A & M (at-large)
South Carolina (at-large)
Clemson (at-large; UPDATE; eliminated with loss to South Carolina)
Oklahoma (at-large or Big XII champ)
Oregon State (at-large: UPDATE; eliminated with loss to Oregon)
Texas (at-large: UPDATE; eliminated with loss to TCU)
Georgia Tech (ACC champ)
UCLA (Pac 12 champ)
Wisconsin (Big Ten champ)
Michigan (Big Ten champ UPDATE; eliminated by Nebraska win)
Louisville (Big East champ)
WEEKEND UPDATES:
Domino 1: Longhorns longshot chance dashed (21 teams left)
Texas was hoping for a splashy win to end the season at K-State to be a two-loss team and either end up with second place in Big XII or be in a four-way tie at the top. Oh yeah, the Longhorns would need to defeat TCU at home. Well, for the first time in years, TCU is not a factor to get into the tournament, but they still rose up to beat Texas and send the Longhorns waiting until next year. Post Thanksgiving, 21 teams still left for ten tourney slots.
Domino 2: Nebraska's win eliminates Michigan; Big Ten hope for respectability lives another week (20 teams left)
Iowa provided an upset scare. Sure, Nebraska was scared, but Michigan still could have lost to Ohio State to send the Huskers to Indy for the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin. But the real scare was at conference headquarters, who hope Nebraska can maintain a bit of respectability by being a two-loss, non #10 seed representative to the tournament, plus sell some tickets in Indy. Plus, the tournament committee did not look forward to Michigan making the tourney since they and Stanford both played Notre Dame, and UM might cause challenges due to the "avoid regular season re-matches" guidelines. But Husker win makes all well, removes OSU-Michigan as a domino game, and brings Nebraska a step closer to a return to the tournament in which it once was omnipresent.
Domino 3: LSU remains atop at-large bubble with wobbly win at Arkansas
LSU went into this game as perhaps the last team into the tournament as third of three at-large teams. Arkansas showed signs of being the team that during pre-season was considered a contender for either an at-large team or possibly SEC champ, but in the end, a few questionable 4th down decisions resulted in a stumble like a Bobby Petrino biking day trip. On one hand, LSU may have solidified their slot, or opened things up for Clemson, South Carolina, or Texas A & M to leap frog them. Time will tell, but for now, LSU is in the hunt.
Domino 4: Georgia extinguishes Tech upset thoughts early
Georgia and GTU's propensity to ruin each other's seasons (e.g., three seasons ago, Georgia's win demoted Tech from top six seed to 9th seed and loss to Ohio State in Cincy. But this year's impressive Bulldog win solidifies their chances. Although they want to take the SEC title, this win helps if they lose and need to grab an at-large bid
Dominoes 5 and 6: Big East leaders take one on the chin; Tenth seed is in their grasp
Sigh. Rutgers could have sewed up a Big East bid with a win and a Louisville loss, but Rutgers never was in the game. Louisville dramatically brought it to OT, only to lose at home anyway. Sigh. Lots of scenarios, but it just seems like Thursday's Rutgers-Louisville winner gets the tenth seed. If one of them is willing to win.
Domino 7: Oregon sends Oregon State's at-large bid packing (19 teams left)
It looked interesting at first, but the Ducks pulled away, and seems so have locked up tournament security with a big win. They seem certain for one of the at-large bids, but may have to play in the Pac-12 championship if UCLA wins. So it looks like Oregon in, Oregon State out.
Domino 8: Alabama-Auburn, no drama expected, none delivered
Yeah, there were a lot of scenarios if Alabama lost, but that was never a real option. They are in SEC finals, but they cannot be guarantee an at-large birth if they lose to Georgia because one-loss teams are starting to circle at-large bids.
Domino 9: Florida's surges to solidify at-large hopes, FSU's ACC opportunity awaits
This has been a game in the tourney's sites for weeks. A big hurdle for Florida's hope of an at-large bid and top four seed, and Florida State's chance to jump into the top six seeds and avoid a First Round game. Turnovers left home Seminole fans shaking their heads early, but although seeming in control, the Gators found themselves behind as FSU put up a 17-0 third quarter. Florida responded to pull out an easy win, and will grab an at-large bid and top four seed
Domino 10: Oklahoma's bedlam win leaves them in the hunt
Oklahoma seemed to grab big leads, and then the Sooners would tie it up. The OSU up again, on and on. It looked like the Cowboys would prevail to officially send KState to the tourney, and send OU home eliminated. But Oklahoma avoided tourney elimination, winning 51-48 in OT. Some help from Texas would help give Oklahoma a Big XII bid.
Domino 11: Stanford dashes the hopes of at-large dreamers everywhere
Once Florida and Oregon won, teams from across the country became UCLA fans. A UCLA win would send Oregon to the Pac-12 championship game and potentially keep the Ducks from grabbing one of what is anticipated to be three at-large slots. A Stanford win would seem to guarantee two of the three slots would be owned by Gators and Ducks. But the Cardinal prevailed, hoping to win conference and rise up to a sixth seed. But UCLA gets another chance against the Cardinal next week, and if coach Mora can use his NFL experience of within-season home and home adjustments, maybe UCLA will find a way into the tourney.
Domino 12: South Carolina completes day of SEC dominance over ACC; Clemson at-large bid is denied (18 teams left)
This has been another game in the tourney's sites for weeks. Clemson couldn't win the ACC, but hoped a one-loss season would have sent them to the tourney with the last of three at-large golden tickets. The day's events seem to make South Carolina's at-large hopes slim, but this USC won a back and forth contest with some drama, until the last minutes.
Domino 13: Texas A & M does their part to stay in at-large contention
The Aggies were heavily favored versus Mizzou, but an impressive performance will keep them in the at-large discussion. So if Oregon and Florida have two of three at-large slots, the SEC loser of Alabama-Georgia, LSU, Texas A & M, Clemson/South Carolina winner, and Oklahoma can all make a case for slot number three.
Domino 14: USC scaring Notre Dame and the tourney committee
Notre Dame lead throughout, but SC staying close had people nervous. Could a loss still keep ND in the hunt? The appeal of #1 ND with a nice road to Cowboys Stadium for the Semi-Finals had the tournament committee pacing nervously in their wood paneled luxurious board room. Notre Dame prevails, and #1 tourney seed awaits.
SOOOO....the weekend started with 22 teams with tournament dreams, and 18 remain.
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Wacky weekend will follow a crazy night in college football
In my tournament world, I am denoting next weekend’s college football slate, the “wacky weekend,” because it seems like the current house of cards of teams involved can be completely flattened by a schedule full to the brim with impactful games.
And the wackiness started as the tournament with this nice structure going into last weekend: K-State in the Fiesta, Oregon in the Rose, Alabama in the Sugar, Notre Dame in the Orange; and was completely sideswiped by the losses to the top two teams. So right now, SEC champ goes to the Sugar, maybe, and after that, who knows? And the tough hurdles for last week's top two were supposed to be Texas and Oregon State, opponents still out there to possibly shake this up some more.
The immediate impact of last night’s losses was the elevation of Notre Dame from #3 and most likely a bowl game against an SEC team, to now, #1, with teams like Florida State, Nebraska, Louisville as opponents, or if things get even more loopy, teams like Miami and UCLA. Before last night, it looked like the SEC would have lots of teams in the tourney but would have to fight for the title from seeds of #4+. Now they look to have a shot back for a top two seed, but Oregon’s possible devaluation to an at-large team may knock out teams like LSU, Texas A & M, even a victorious Clemson from the tournament. Before last night, LSU seemed like a shoe-in at-large. Now they may have to wait to see how far down the SEC champ game loser falls, however there are many more possibilities too, including Florida and Oregon losing this week, that can shake up the at-large race.
And, I am sure the BCS feels the same way, a system to take the top teams and put them together now often includes automatic qualifying conference champs from outside the top ten. As of now, only two conferences have teams that control their own destiny within the top six, Bama/Georgia and KState. Florida State, Stanford, Nebraska, and Louisville/Rutgers could provide two First Round games full of four conference champs. That was not the design for the BCS, but I actually don’t mind these teams having to “play-in” for the chance to be fodder for the top two seeds. So here are upcoming games and their story lines in this reality show of a ten-team college football tournament:
1) Notre Dame at USC: In the realm of meaningfulness, this game has more meaning in the current system than my hypothetical tournament, but not much more. ND may be in my tourney win or lose, but the chance to be #1, play an opponent from the outside the top 10, the conference champions that seem like they will be out there, would seem big motivation. A loss could even drop them to a #7 to #10 seed and a First Round game. Yes, the Irish would want to win this game even in my tourney scenario.
2) Alabama/Auburn, Georgia/Georgia Tech, and the SEC championship. The only flaw in the situation of the Bama/Georgia winner being #2 (or #1) seed is the Ramblin’ Wreck. Seems like every season, whether it be UG or Tech is riding high, the rival bursts their bubble in this game. Also, come on Auburn, who you going to get to coach against Saban in-state that can say they won a national title with Cam Newton? Face it Auburn, until Saban leaves, you will be playing the margins of football success; let the guy stay unless Urban Meyer wants to move to War Eagle Land.
3) Florida at Florida State: This game has been on the map forever, as it could be an elimination game for Florida that could raise FSU into the top six to avoid a First Round game. Now, it seems like a Gator win gives them a top three seed and bumps the Seminoles further down the road to a First Round game
4) Big 12 drama. K-State hosting Texas in two weeks was supposed to be the Wildcats hurdle to undefeated-ness until the ghost of RG III showed up in Waco. Now, a Texas win can knock KSU out of the tourney, although an Oklahoma loss to Oklahoma State might mean a four-way Big 12 tie at the top. In simplest terms, KState can win at home and earn a top five tourney seed. Otherwise, potentially another type of Big 12 bedlam will reign.
5) Oregon at Oregon State plus other Pac-12 fun: Which Ducks team will show up? The one the dominated lesser foes in a back-loaded schedule, or one with the wind out of its sails? So many odd situations in the Pac-12; Oregon can be an at-large team, ripping a spot away from the throngs of awaiting SEC teams, or get the chance to play UCLA for a Pac-12 automatic slot. In any case, two current longest active strings, Oregon’s run of three straight tournaments and Stanford’s two straight Final Fours, are still alive and controlled by their own destiny, and also hanging on a thin, teeny string.
6) Clemson hosting South Carolina. Again, both teams thought a win would propel them into at-large contention if not lock up a slot, but now that Oregon may occupy an at-large slot, the winner of this game needs to root for Oregon to take the Pac-12, Florida to lose, the SEC champ game loser to look terrible; anything that can open a spot for either a one-loss Tiger team trying to redeem its embarrassing First Round loss to Wisconsin last season or a two-loss South Carolina team trying to make the big tourney party. Those three SEC-ACC match-ups of FL-FSU, UGA-GT, and this one all have big tourney implications, with basically every team rooting for themselves and the ACC to win, no matter what conference they are from.
So right now, the top five seeds look to be: 1) Notre Dame, Independent AQ 2) Alabama/Georgia winner (unless Georgia loses to GTU before beating the Tide), SEC champ 3) Florida, at-large 4) Kansas State, Big 12 champ 5) Oregon, at-large
With these teams looking for an at-large spot: SEC champ game loser, LSU, Texas A & M, South Carolina, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas.
And these teams looking at conference automatics: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Stanford, UCLA, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, Louisville, Rutgers.
And this season will have no teams qualify automatically from outside the six AQ conferences, and probably not as an at-large team like Boise State last year, but give a shout out to the MAC. Yes, this years contenders for the title have flaws. Kent State lost to Kentucky but beat Rutgers. Northern Illinois lost by 1 to Iowa but beat Kansas. Throw in Ohio U’s win at Penn State and other signature wins, and the MAC deserves a seat at the table in the kooky crazy season. But MAC, you had a great season, and I will save some stuffing for you.
So if I must project my tournament, and I feel like it is carved in sand, here it is, as of now:
FIRST ROUND:
In Atlanta:
7 Florida State (ACC champ)
10 Louisville (Big East Champ)
In Pasadena:
8 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
9 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)
BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Nebraska, else if Stanford wins, the Florida State/Louisville winner
Orange:
4 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)
6 LSU (at large)
Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Florida State/Louisville winner unless Stanford wins
Rose:
3 Florida (at large)
5 Oregon (at large)
Semi-finals in Arlington, TX
Championship in Miami
The immediate impact of last night’s losses was the elevation of Notre Dame from #3 and most likely a bowl game against an SEC team, to now, #1, with teams like Florida State, Nebraska, Louisville as opponents, or if things get even more loopy, teams like Miami and UCLA. Before last night, it looked like the SEC would have lots of teams in the tourney but would have to fight for the title from seeds of #4+. Now they look to have a shot back for a top two seed, but Oregon’s possible devaluation to an at-large team may knock out teams like LSU, Texas A & M, even a victorious Clemson from the tournament. Before last night, LSU seemed like a shoe-in at-large. Now they may have to wait to see how far down the SEC champ game loser falls, however there are many more possibilities too, including Florida and Oregon losing this week, that can shake up the at-large race.
And, I am sure the BCS feels the same way, a system to take the top teams and put them together now often includes automatic qualifying conference champs from outside the top ten. As of now, only two conferences have teams that control their own destiny within the top six, Bama/Georgia and KState. Florida State, Stanford, Nebraska, and Louisville/Rutgers could provide two First Round games full of four conference champs. That was not the design for the BCS, but I actually don’t mind these teams having to “play-in” for the chance to be fodder for the top two seeds. So here are upcoming games and their story lines in this reality show of a ten-team college football tournament:
1) Notre Dame at USC: In the realm of meaningfulness, this game has more meaning in the current system than my hypothetical tournament, but not much more. ND may be in my tourney win or lose, but the chance to be #1, play an opponent from the outside the top 10, the conference champions that seem like they will be out there, would seem big motivation. A loss could even drop them to a #7 to #10 seed and a First Round game. Yes, the Irish would want to win this game even in my tourney scenario.
2) Alabama/Auburn, Georgia/Georgia Tech, and the SEC championship. The only flaw in the situation of the Bama/Georgia winner being #2 (or #1) seed is the Ramblin’ Wreck. Seems like every season, whether it be UG or Tech is riding high, the rival bursts their bubble in this game. Also, come on Auburn, who you going to get to coach against Saban in-state that can say they won a national title with Cam Newton? Face it Auburn, until Saban leaves, you will be playing the margins of football success; let the guy stay unless Urban Meyer wants to move to War Eagle Land.
3) Florida at Florida State: This game has been on the map forever, as it could be an elimination game for Florida that could raise FSU into the top six to avoid a First Round game. Now, it seems like a Gator win gives them a top three seed and bumps the Seminoles further down the road to a First Round game
4) Big 12 drama. K-State hosting Texas in two weeks was supposed to be the Wildcats hurdle to undefeated-ness until the ghost of RG III showed up in Waco. Now, a Texas win can knock KSU out of the tourney, although an Oklahoma loss to Oklahoma State might mean a four-way Big 12 tie at the top. In simplest terms, KState can win at home and earn a top five tourney seed. Otherwise, potentially another type of Big 12 bedlam will reign.
5) Oregon at Oregon State plus other Pac-12 fun: Which Ducks team will show up? The one the dominated lesser foes in a back-loaded schedule, or one with the wind out of its sails? So many odd situations in the Pac-12; Oregon can be an at-large team, ripping a spot away from the throngs of awaiting SEC teams, or get the chance to play UCLA for a Pac-12 automatic slot. In any case, two current longest active strings, Oregon’s run of three straight tournaments and Stanford’s two straight Final Fours, are still alive and controlled by their own destiny, and also hanging on a thin, teeny string.
6) Clemson hosting South Carolina. Again, both teams thought a win would propel them into at-large contention if not lock up a slot, but now that Oregon may occupy an at-large slot, the winner of this game needs to root for Oregon to take the Pac-12, Florida to lose, the SEC champ game loser to look terrible; anything that can open a spot for either a one-loss Tiger team trying to redeem its embarrassing First Round loss to Wisconsin last season or a two-loss South Carolina team trying to make the big tourney party. Those three SEC-ACC match-ups of FL-FSU, UGA-GT, and this one all have big tourney implications, with basically every team rooting for themselves and the ACC to win, no matter what conference they are from.
So right now, the top five seeds look to be: 1) Notre Dame, Independent AQ 2) Alabama/Georgia winner (unless Georgia loses to GTU before beating the Tide), SEC champ 3) Florida, at-large 4) Kansas State, Big 12 champ 5) Oregon, at-large
With these teams looking for an at-large spot: SEC champ game loser, LSU, Texas A & M, South Carolina, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas.
And these teams looking at conference automatics: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Stanford, UCLA, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, Louisville, Rutgers.
And this season will have no teams qualify automatically from outside the six AQ conferences, and probably not as an at-large team like Boise State last year, but give a shout out to the MAC. Yes, this years contenders for the title have flaws. Kent State lost to Kentucky but beat Rutgers. Northern Illinois lost by 1 to Iowa but beat Kansas. Throw in Ohio U’s win at Penn State and other signature wins, and the MAC deserves a seat at the table in the kooky crazy season. But MAC, you had a great season, and I will save some stuffing for you.
So if I must project my tournament, and I feel like it is carved in sand, here it is, as of now:
FIRST ROUND:
In Atlanta:
7 Florida State (ACC champ)
10 Louisville (Big East Champ)
In Pasadena:
8 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
9 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)
BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Nebraska, else if Stanford wins, the Florida State/Louisville winner
Orange:
4 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)
6 LSU (at large)
Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Florida State/Louisville winner unless Stanford wins
Rose:
3 Florida (at large)
5 Oregon (at large)
Semi-finals in Arlington, TX
Championship in Miami
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Despite strong resume, LSU can't get the job (done); Alabama wins the National Championship!
LSU walked into New Orleans' Super Dome for the National Championship game with a resume strong enough that some thought they ranked among the great teams of all time. And what a resume it was! Of the elite eight teams in the quarterfinals, the Tigers had beaten four during the regular season (Alabama, Oregon, Arkansas, and West Virginia) and two more in the tournament (Wisconsin and Stanford), leaving Oklahoma State as the only team not vanquished.
On the other side of the field, Alabama was trying to win the championship based on lessons learned from the school of hard knocks. If the Tide can learn the third of three lessons, the Tide could turn to win a national title:
Lesson #1: Don't take quarterfinal games for granted. Life lesson? In January 2009, in a highly anticipated 4/5 game, Alabama showed up in Pasadena listless, and received a thumping at the hands of #5 USC. Lesson learned? Bama took out Ohio State two seasons ago and West Virginia this season with little problem.
Lesson #2: Just because you win the quarterfinal easily, don't think the semi-finals will be an easy win. Life lesson? After beating Ohio State two seasons ago in the Sugar Bowl, the Tide showed up at the Syracuse Semi-Finals expecting to beat Florida, but again lost to the tourney's #5 seed. Lesson learned? After Bama took out the Mountaineers in the Sugar Bowl this season, the Tide took care of business against Oklahoma State in the Semi-Finals.
Lesson #3: Regular season results can be thrown out the window during the tournament. Life lesson? Two seasons ago, Alabama had easily handled Tebow and the Gators in the SEC Championship game. In what seemed like a hug win at the time, it was dwarfed when Florida won the rematch. Lesson learned? We will see if the TIde can get past the OT loss to LSU in Tuscaloosa.
The championship game continued the defensive battle of the regular season match. In the first three minutes of the first quarter, Alabama's A.J. McCarron tried to pass the Tide out of bad field position, but his pass to Brad Smelley resulted in the tight end being tackled in the end zone. Tigers grab the 2-0 lead.
But the Tide kept their heads up, and kicked, kicked, kicked themselves to the lead. While LSU's offense looked listless in their home state, Tide kicked Jeremy Shelley hit a field goal in the first, two more in the second, and two more in the third, to methodically give Alabama a 15-2 lead going into the final frame. Alabama finally crossed the goal line in the fourth on Trent Richardson's 34 yard run, and the Tide took the 21-2 lead that turned out to be the final.
Alabama wins the 2011-2012 National Championship!
UPDATED TOURNEY RESULTS:
FIRST ROUND:
In Pittsburgh:
7 Boise State 62
10 West Virginia 70 (4 OT)
In Green Bay:
8 Wisconsin 45
9 Clemson 19
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 LSU 25
8 Wisconsin 21
Rose:
4 Stanford 35 (OT)
6 Arkansas 32
Sugar:
2 Alabama 34
10 West Virginia 0
Fiesta:
3 Oklahoma State 38
5 Oregon 37
Semi-finals in Saint Louis:
1 LSU 34
4 Stanford 17
2 Alabama 22
3 Oklahoma State 14
BCS Championship in New Orleans (January 28th)
1 LSU 2
2 Alabama 21
On the other side of the field, Alabama was trying to win the championship based on lessons learned from the school of hard knocks. If the Tide can learn the third of three lessons, the Tide could turn to win a national title:
Lesson #1: Don't take quarterfinal games for granted. Life lesson? In January 2009, in a highly anticipated 4/5 game, Alabama showed up in Pasadena listless, and received a thumping at the hands of #5 USC. Lesson learned? Bama took out Ohio State two seasons ago and West Virginia this season with little problem.
Lesson #2: Just because you win the quarterfinal easily, don't think the semi-finals will be an easy win. Life lesson? After beating Ohio State two seasons ago in the Sugar Bowl, the Tide showed up at the Syracuse Semi-Finals expecting to beat Florida, but again lost to the tourney's #5 seed. Lesson learned? After Bama took out the Mountaineers in the Sugar Bowl this season, the Tide took care of business against Oklahoma State in the Semi-Finals.
Lesson #3: Regular season results can be thrown out the window during the tournament. Life lesson? Two seasons ago, Alabama had easily handled Tebow and the Gators in the SEC Championship game. In what seemed like a hug win at the time, it was dwarfed when Florida won the rematch. Lesson learned? We will see if the TIde can get past the OT loss to LSU in Tuscaloosa.
The championship game continued the defensive battle of the regular season match. In the first three minutes of the first quarter, Alabama's A.J. McCarron tried to pass the Tide out of bad field position, but his pass to Brad Smelley resulted in the tight end being tackled in the end zone. Tigers grab the 2-0 lead.
But the Tide kept their heads up, and kicked, kicked, kicked themselves to the lead. While LSU's offense looked listless in their home state, Tide kicked Jeremy Shelley hit a field goal in the first, two more in the second, and two more in the third, to methodically give Alabama a 15-2 lead going into the final frame. Alabama finally crossed the goal line in the fourth on Trent Richardson's 34 yard run, and the Tide took the 21-2 lead that turned out to be the final.
Alabama wins the 2011-2012 National Championship!
UPDATED TOURNEY RESULTS:
FIRST ROUND:
In Pittsburgh:
7 Boise State 62
10 West Virginia 70 (4 OT)
In Green Bay:
8 Wisconsin 45
9 Clemson 19
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 LSU 25
8 Wisconsin 21
Rose:
4 Stanford 35 (OT)
6 Arkansas 32
Sugar:
2 Alabama 34
10 West Virginia 0
Fiesta:
3 Oklahoma State 38
5 Oregon 37
Semi-finals in Saint Louis:
1 LSU 34
4 Stanford 17
2 Alabama 22
3 Oklahoma State 14
BCS Championship in New Orleans (January 28th)
1 LSU 2
2 Alabama 21
Saturday, January 14, 2012
Saint Louis Semi-Finals: SEC-ond to none, LSU and Alabama advance to national championship game
Fans entered Saint Louis' Edward Jones Dome Saturday, escaping temps in the low thirties and a touch of snow on the ground, to see if LSU and Alabama could make it an SEC day in the tournament Semi-Finals. The winners of today's games meet on January 28th in New Orleans.
Game 1: LSU 34, Stanford 17
For Stanford, it was deva vu all over again. The fourth seeded Cardinal were in the Semi-Finals last season, playing number one seed, champion of the SEC Auburn. And last year, Stanford scored first, but Auburn won easily. Gulp, things played out in an all too familiar way against number one LSU.
Stanford and QB Andrew Luck took the opening kickoff, and went on a drive for over five minutes, culminating in a Jordan Williamson 27 yard field goal, and the Cardinal had the 3-0 lead.
After two punts, LSU drove 80 yards in the final minutes of the opening frame, and Jordan Jefferson hit Rueben Randle for an 18 yard TD pass, and LSU led 7-3.
The ensuing Stanford drive stalled at their own 37, and the Cardinal punted it back to the Tigers. Early in the second quarter, Stanford's 50 yard punt was fielded by LSU's Tyrann Mathieu, and the "Honey Badger" returned it 87 yards for the TD, and even held onto the ball before reaching the end zone. The LSU led 14-3, as both teams failed to score during the remainder of the first half.
If Stanford thought that they could start with a burst to get it closer in the second half, they were sorely mistaken. LSU took the second half kickoff, and in their second play from scrimmage, Jefferson hit Randle for a 52 yard pass to the Stanford 20. On the next play, Jefferson's 20 yard TD pass to Deangelo Peterson gave the Tigers a 21-3 lead.
Finally, with 3 1/2 minutes left in the third, Andrew Luck hit Griff Whalen on a 16 yard pass play for touchdown, cutting the lead to 21-10. However, Jefferson hit Randle on an 11 yard TD pass early in the fourth, and the lead was 28-10, LSU.
Fourth quarter scoring included a Jeremy Stewart 5 yard TD run for Stanford, and subsequently two LSU field goals, and the final score was 34-17, and LSU would return to Louisiana to play the winner of Game #2 in the championship game.
Game 2: Alabama 22, Oklahoma State 14
Would the highly anticipated match-up of the 2nd and 3rd seeds turn out to be a scoring frenzy or low scoring drama.
At first is looked low scoring would win out, with each team punting off their first drive. However, OSU's Brandon Weeden's interception put the Tide in scoring territory, as Alabama had the ball on the Cowboy 10. Alabama could only get a field goal, though, and took the early 3-0 lead.
Oklahoma State then took the ball on a 6 minute, 65 yard drive, all the way to the Alabama 6 yard line, but failed on a 4th and 1 try, leaving them scoreless. Three punts later, Alabama started a 5 minute, 66 yard drive, that ended with a Trent Richardson 4 yard TD run, and the Tide led 10-0. OSU seemed to have used up all of their energy on their fruitless drive in the 1st, and Alabama took the 10-0 lead to halftime.
In the third, Oklahoma State's offense still could not get anything going, and could not even take advantage of Alabama QB A.J. McCarron's interception. Soon, Alabama had another drive of their own, capped by a McCarron 3 yard TD pass to Michael Williams. The PAT missed, but Alabama seemed to be in complete control 16-0 midway through the third quarter. Through seven quarters of action of the Semi-Final doubleheader, it seemed like SEC domination, and that close games were not to be. But the Cowboys had a burst of energy in their holsters.
Early in the fourth quarter, OSU completed a 16 play, 75 yard, nearly 8 minute drive, with a 5 yard TD pass from Weeden to Joseph Randle, and the score was 16-7.
Still, this one won't get close, right? Well, three "3 and punt" drives only used up about 4 minutes off of the clock, when OSU took the ball back to start a 12 play, 78 yard, 3 and 1/2 minute drive ending with a Weedon 9 yard pass to Josh Cooper, and the score was 16-14 with just under seven minutes to play.
Alabama did not flinch, taking the ball on a 9 play, 44 yard, 4 and 1/2 minute drive leading to a 35-yard field goal, which provided a 19-14 lead with 2 and 1/2 minutes to go.
Oklahoma State had the ball only four plays, coming up a yard short on 4th down, and Alabama had the ball back in OSU territory. Bama added a field goal to take the 22-14 lead with only 45 seconds to go. Weeden's first play resulted in an interception, and the game was basically over. Alabama withstood the OSU 4th quarter rally, and the Tide will head to New Orleans for a re-match with SEC West rival LSU.
UPDATED TOURNEY RESULTS:
FIRST ROUND:
In Pittsburgh:
7 Boise State 62
10 West Virginia 70 (4 OT)
In Green Bay:
8 Wisconsin 45
9 Clemson 19
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 LSU 25
8 Wisconsin 21
Rose:
4 Stanford 35 (OT)
6 Arkansas 32
Sugar:
2 Alabama 34
10 West Virginia 0
Fiesta:
3 Oklahoma State 38
5 Oregon 37
Semi-finals in Saint Louis:
1 LSU 34
4 Stanford 17
2 Alabama 22
3 Oklahoma State 14
BCS Championship in New Orleans (January 28th)
1 LSU
2 Alabama
Game 1: LSU 34, Stanford 17
For Stanford, it was deva vu all over again. The fourth seeded Cardinal were in the Semi-Finals last season, playing number one seed, champion of the SEC Auburn. And last year, Stanford scored first, but Auburn won easily. Gulp, things played out in an all too familiar way against number one LSU.
Stanford and QB Andrew Luck took the opening kickoff, and went on a drive for over five minutes, culminating in a Jordan Williamson 27 yard field goal, and the Cardinal had the 3-0 lead.
After two punts, LSU drove 80 yards in the final minutes of the opening frame, and Jordan Jefferson hit Rueben Randle for an 18 yard TD pass, and LSU led 7-3.
The ensuing Stanford drive stalled at their own 37, and the Cardinal punted it back to the Tigers. Early in the second quarter, Stanford's 50 yard punt was fielded by LSU's Tyrann Mathieu, and the "Honey Badger" returned it 87 yards for the TD, and even held onto the ball before reaching the end zone. The LSU led 14-3, as both teams failed to score during the remainder of the first half.
If Stanford thought that they could start with a burst to get it closer in the second half, they were sorely mistaken. LSU took the second half kickoff, and in their second play from scrimmage, Jefferson hit Randle for a 52 yard pass to the Stanford 20. On the next play, Jefferson's 20 yard TD pass to Deangelo Peterson gave the Tigers a 21-3 lead.
Finally, with 3 1/2 minutes left in the third, Andrew Luck hit Griff Whalen on a 16 yard pass play for touchdown, cutting the lead to 21-10. However, Jefferson hit Randle on an 11 yard TD pass early in the fourth, and the lead was 28-10, LSU.
Fourth quarter scoring included a Jeremy Stewart 5 yard TD run for Stanford, and subsequently two LSU field goals, and the final score was 34-17, and LSU would return to Louisiana to play the winner of Game #2 in the championship game.
Game 2: Alabama 22, Oklahoma State 14
Would the highly anticipated match-up of the 2nd and 3rd seeds turn out to be a scoring frenzy or low scoring drama.
At first is looked low scoring would win out, with each team punting off their first drive. However, OSU's Brandon Weeden's interception put the Tide in scoring territory, as Alabama had the ball on the Cowboy 10. Alabama could only get a field goal, though, and took the early 3-0 lead.
Oklahoma State then took the ball on a 6 minute, 65 yard drive, all the way to the Alabama 6 yard line, but failed on a 4th and 1 try, leaving them scoreless. Three punts later, Alabama started a 5 minute, 66 yard drive, that ended with a Trent Richardson 4 yard TD run, and the Tide led 10-0. OSU seemed to have used up all of their energy on their fruitless drive in the 1st, and Alabama took the 10-0 lead to halftime.
In the third, Oklahoma State's offense still could not get anything going, and could not even take advantage of Alabama QB A.J. McCarron's interception. Soon, Alabama had another drive of their own, capped by a McCarron 3 yard TD pass to Michael Williams. The PAT missed, but Alabama seemed to be in complete control 16-0 midway through the third quarter. Through seven quarters of action of the Semi-Final doubleheader, it seemed like SEC domination, and that close games were not to be. But the Cowboys had a burst of energy in their holsters.
Early in the fourth quarter, OSU completed a 16 play, 75 yard, nearly 8 minute drive, with a 5 yard TD pass from Weeden to Joseph Randle, and the score was 16-7.
Still, this one won't get close, right? Well, three "3 and punt" drives only used up about 4 minutes off of the clock, when OSU took the ball back to start a 12 play, 78 yard, 3 and 1/2 minute drive ending with a Weedon 9 yard pass to Josh Cooper, and the score was 16-14 with just under seven minutes to play.
Alabama did not flinch, taking the ball on a 9 play, 44 yard, 4 and 1/2 minute drive leading to a 35-yard field goal, which provided a 19-14 lead with 2 and 1/2 minutes to go.
Oklahoma State had the ball only four plays, coming up a yard short on 4th down, and Alabama had the ball back in OSU territory. Bama added a field goal to take the 22-14 lead with only 45 seconds to go. Weeden's first play resulted in an interception, and the game was basically over. Alabama withstood the OSU 4th quarter rally, and the Tide will head to New Orleans for a re-match with SEC West rival LSU.
UPDATED TOURNEY RESULTS:
FIRST ROUND:
In Pittsburgh:
7 Boise State 62
10 West Virginia 70 (4 OT)
In Green Bay:
8 Wisconsin 45
9 Clemson 19
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 LSU 25
8 Wisconsin 21
Rose:
4 Stanford 35 (OT)
6 Arkansas 32
Sugar:
2 Alabama 34
10 West Virginia 0
Fiesta:
3 Oklahoma State 38
5 Oregon 37
Semi-finals in Saint Louis:
1 LSU 34
4 Stanford 17
2 Alabama 22
3 Oklahoma State 14
BCS Championship in New Orleans (January 28th)
1 LSU
2 Alabama
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