Some more precincts heard from in the college football playoff debate

Last Friday, Terence Moore provided an opinion piece for cnn.com to voice his position that a college football playoff is bad, bad, and more bad. Many of his statements concern academics, and I cannot condemn anyone who values education. But I will examine his points also in light of a survey of 121 NFL players who supported a playoff by a margin of 70% to 27% over the current system.

Mr. Moore's argument is that everyone (fans, coaches, media) wants a playoff without regard to the players' needs. He argues that extra games take away time from studies, which is certainly true. But did he protest when college football went from eleven to twelve regular season games? Or when conferences added conference championship games? The former change affected every major college football team, whereas my college tourney proposal extends the season for four teams. Which had more impact? Of course, I noticed these increases in regular season games because it is starting to increase the total number of games under my tourney scenario, yet I heard no substantial outrage at the time.

And my proposal for the four teams that have extended seasons in my tournament is that: 1) spring football is defined across the board for a specified period of time; 2) any team that makes the semi-finals of my tourney reduces spring football by two weeks, and 3) any team that makes the finals of my tourney reduces spring football by four weeks.

Also, Moore makes the assertion that a playoff would occur at the stressful academic time of year. For one thing, there is no standard academic schedule. Schools on quarters will have very different finals weeks than those on semesters, so it is impossible to say definitively that a playoff would occur during those times. When I attended a Division II school that went to the national championship game in football, yes, it probably was a hectic schedule. They played basically 15 games over the 16 week semester, stretching from the start of the semester to finals week. In contrast, my tourney which tries to preserve the key New Year's bowls, would utilize more of the inter-session time than the Division II schedule does.

Also, as I noted last February, the fact that several Iowa players were hospitalized due to strenuous POST-season workouts (the strenuousness perhaps due to their poor bowl performance) does not indicate that the current system puts books in the hands of players when the bowl season stops.

Mr. Moore asks questions about playoffs like, "Where would you play these games? The site of current bowl games, you say, or maybe NFL stadiums, neutral sites or various places on the dark side of the moon? How many -- if any -- of these locations would be available?" Um, have you seen the college basketball tournament? Seems like there is no shortage of places to play for hoops, and football stadia, many used less than a dozen times a year, shouldn't really have any scheduling problems. Terrence, after the academic stuff, did you run out of material for you opinion piece?

Moore also asks, "If you use bowls, which ones? And since the bulk of the TV and advertising revenue would flow to playoff games, what would happen financially to the bulk of the bowls without playoff games?" Again, didn't the BCS bowls pretty much do this also, elevating four bowls and then four bowls plus a championship game? Yes, some bowls seem lacking of interest in the current system, yet they continue, and others seem to be doing quite well. I think the bowls would be doing just as well in a playoff scenario. Some with a sea of empty seats, some with nice attendance, just like it is now.

Next, Moore queries, "How would you choose the participants for a playoff system, and wouldn't that create more controversy?" Again, I am sure the same thing happens at other football levels of playoffs (e.g., Division II and III), and probably every other college team sport, but does anyone want to stop all college tournaments because there is a cutoff of those in and out?

Moore continues that March Madness is an academic disaster for hoops and so therefore would be bad for football. But I think the problem is more deep seeded than playoff sports versus non-playoff sports. After I attended a Division II school, I went to a Big Ten school, and I used to make extra money as a proctor for exams for a class that enrolled 1,000 students per semester. The class had a TA for a special discussion section for athletes, among other discussion sections. The TA told me that athletes from every other sport were serious attendees of the section, and hard working students, except for the men's hoops and football players. So, for the other sports that we had with nationally ranked teams in playoffs, like baseball and volleyball, the student athletes were student AND athletes, wheres the revenue guys tended to be, well, slackers. This is a bigger issue than playoffs versus no-playoffs, and can be addressed no matter how champions are determined.

Terrence also goes into attendance issues for Division I-AA tourney is less than their regular season games. Well, again, let me tell you my personal experience when my school went to the Division II championship game. I went to every home game that season except one, the first tournament game at home. Why? It was Thanksgiving, and I was at home. I am sure that students leave during the period of many of the college playoff games, plus it is getting darn cold too. In general, the majority of students at schools like this will not change their plans to attend a game, but when I went to a Big Ten school, I did not go home one Thanksgiving because I would miss two basketball home games when my season tickets were finally down in a prime location. The fanaticism of the fans is just different between these types of schools. When I was at the Division II school, a professor asked a friend's class during the time we were having a big rivalry game if the students would take two free tickets for our school's game or two free tickets for the Big Ten school 60 miles away (who were unranked but bowl bound), every hand indicated that students would take the tix for the Big Ten school.

Mr. Moore finishes with the question, "How many folks would travel multiple times to see their team during a playoff system involving the big boys?"For one thing, I recognize this and try to minimize travel expectations, for instance having the First Round in cities near one of the participating schools, and a single semi-final site in cities where I hope the locals would be excited to have the Final Four coming in to play and help buy up tix, and that the most devoted of the four schools will also show interest. This year, my semi's are in Saint Louis, and I hope after the Rams season, some local fans would like to take in a couple intriguing games of the college variety. And does the bowl season now seem a little sparsely attended? What better match-up as far as fan-hood than Oklahoma and Iowa, but I saw lots of empty seats for that one.

Mr. Moore, there are issues with the academics of many of the students playing football and men's hoops, and those issues are real and deep-seeded. But they are not related to playoffs. Come on Terrence, follow my tournament, check out the results of Oklahoma State versus Oregon after the January 2nd games are over. You'll get college football tourney fever, you know you will.....

A Tale of Two Brackets: Tournament Predictions

They are the most intriguing games, they are the least intriguing games. The top part of my tournament brackets, the section with top seeds LSU and Alabama, seems like four games just to officially stamp the tickets to the Saint Louis semi-finals for the Tigers and Tide. On the other side of the bracket, it seems like double the fun of the traditionally very anticipated 4 versus 5 seeds, because rather than a single 4 versus 5 game, to avoid a regular season rematch of #4 Stanford and #5 Oregon, both the games of #3 Oklahoma State versus the #5 Ducks and #4 Stanford versus #6 Arkansas seem like the toss-ups we come to expect of the 4/5 games. But it must be said, often the 4/5 games are big disappointments. You only have to go back to last season's Stanford win over Wisconsin in the least competitive game of the quarterfinal BCS Bowl round to see an example.

In the top half of the bracket, LSU will play the winner of Wisconsin and Clemson's game in Green Bay. I think this game will be more competitive than most people think, but I think the Badgers will win by 2.

In the other First Round game to determine Alabama's Sugar Bowl opponent, Boise State will travel to Pittsburgh to play West Virginia. The Mountaineers could put up a fight, but Boise State has too much experience and success in this tourney to lose. I say Broncos by at least 20.

If either Wisconsin or Boise State gets within a touchdown of their opponents in the quarterfinals, it will be a moral victory. A loss, but a moral victory. I say Bama beats BSU by 10, and LSU by 21 over Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl.

The other games will be less certain at the outset. CNNSI's Stewart Mandel likes Oklahoma State, but I think Oregon will win by 5 to advance to the Final Four. Oregon has had the tendency to not show up for some big games over the past couple of seasons. It seems like key guys get hurt and seem more than happy to call it a day. But this season, I think the Ducks want to prove something, although the Cowboys will put a fight. Whoa Nellie, this gad-gum game should be a good-un.

The other game of intrigue is Stanford-Arkansas. I see this game going two ways, an Arkansas blow-out, showing a combination of SEC West strength plus the fact that Stanford seems a little less than shiny since it beat SC. Or, I see Stanford pulling out a close one, as Andrew Luck rebounds with all of that Heisman hype over with. Stewart likes Arkansas, but I like Stanford by 1.

Saint Louis will get a twosome of SEC West/Pac-12 North semi-finals, with LSU-Stanford as game one, and Alabama-Oregon as game two.

Stewart Mandel of cnnsi.com predicts my tournament games

(actually, Stewart made picks for the real bowl games, and I transformed them into predictions for my playoffs; i.e., if the games turn out like he says, this is how my tournament will play out, for the First Round and BCS Bowl Quarterfinals, at least)

As part of Stewart Mandel's predictions of all of the bowl games this season, here are his predictions for the tournament's first round and quarterfinals. Last year, Stewart was 6-0 for these games, including correctly picking Ohio State would win by one point over TCU:

FIRST ROUND:


In Pittsburgh:
7 Boise State 40
10 West Virginia 27

In Green Bay:
8 Wisconsin 33
9 Clemson 27

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange:
1 LSU 44
8 Wisconsin 27

Rose:
4 Stanford 35
6 Arkansas 41

Sugar:
2 Alabama 45
7 Boise State 34

Fiesta:
3 Oklahoma State 48
5 Oregon 41

Semi-finals in Saint Louis:
LSU vs. Arkansas
Alabama vs. Oklahoma State

BCS Championship in New Orleans

Quick, turn on the "BCS College Football Tournament Selection Show"!

And now live from the ESPN studios, it's the BCS College Football Tournament Selection Show presented by Hawaiian Punch Light, with Rece Davis, Lou Holtz, and Mark May.

Rece, "College football fans, your wait is over. Yesterday, we had some surprises, and we are about to learn the ten teams that will play for the BCS Championship of college football. We will find out the teams that made it, where they will play, and the teams that did not make it. Lou, what are you most anxious to learn tonight as the teams are revealed?"

Lou, "Good golly, it is going to be a big thrill for these players and coaches to find out when and where they will play, but I want to know who is getting those last at-large spots. Will TCU and Boise State both make it, for a big payday for the Mountain West? Or will the SEC have a big day, and get four teams in with the University of South Carolina and the University of Arkansas taking the last two spots? Those schools play some really good football, and have a history of hiring brilliant coaches."

Mark, "Very funny coach. Houston's loss opened up the opportunity for TCU to make it into the tournament if they are ranked in the top 16. TCU is a fine program, but with two losses they should not be in the playoffs. Teams like Utah, Hawaii, TCU, and Boise always have made it in as undefeated teams, a two loss team should not make it. They lost to Baylor, not Oklahoma State, the TCU resume is just not that strong. They lost to SMU!"

Lou, "But Mark, it is your alma mater's conference, the Big East, opening the door for TCU, because the Big East teams are so poorly ranked. Oh Lawdy, I just can't wait to see who made it: Boise State, TCU, Arkansas, Kansas State, South Carolina, Michigan, even Baylor. Man, this is going to be exciting."

Mark, "Well, my school Pitt is on its way to the ACC, so the Big East won't have to rely on me defending it in the future. But I think everyone is happy 9 and 3 West Virginia looks like the Big East representative, because if it was 7 and 5 Louisville, that would be an embarrassment. Actually, I think West Virginia will not be a pushover in this thing."

Rece, "So, let's review the rules of the tournament. Six conference champions receive automatic berths, so these teams are in: Oregon from the Pac-12, LSU from the SEC, Oklahoma State from the Big XII, Clemson from the ACC, and Wisconsin from the Big Ten. The other remaining conference is the Big East, and they have a three-way tie at the top, which will be broken by the BCS standings. We assume it will be West Virginia ranked above both Cincinnati and Louisville."

"So since the Big East champion is unlikely to be in the top 16, if a conference champion from one of the other conferences makes the top 16, they are automatically included. Now we assume that TCU has the best shot, but Southern Miss may get some support, and oooh, how that late season loss to UAB hurt the Golden Eagles. They would be in such good shape if that had won that game."

"So if TCU makes the top 16, they are in, and then there are three additional at-large teams, which are the three highest remaining ranked teams. If TCU does not make it into the top 16, then the top four remaining teams will be at-large teams. So we assume Alabama and Stanford will be two of the at-large teams. But the the remaining two teams, that is the question."

Lou, "Rece, well I think Arkansas and South Carolina both had great seasons and deserve to be in it, in fact I think that the third at-large team should be Notre Dame, then all of my former teams would make it in."

Rece, "Coach, I don't think you have to worry about the Irish this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if Brian Kelly has them in the tournament soon, like he did getting the Cincy Bearcats into the playoffs for the two consecutive years prior to leaving for South Bend."

Mark, "I think that Arkansas and Boise State will make it in, TCU will come up short, and LSU and Alabama will be the top two seeds."

Lou, "I think the top two seeds will be LSU and Oklahoma State."

Rece continues, "And now, it is time to learn the which ten teams made the 2010-2011 BCS college football tournament, so we go to Brent Musburger in New Orleans. Brent..."

Brent, "You are looking...LIVE at the Superdome of New Orleans, Louisiana. Hi there everybody, we are at the site of the championship game. Ten teams will play to win here, and take home win the BCS championship trophy. And now, it is time for the Diet Mountain Dew Voltage bracket presentation. Let's go to tournament Commissioner Nelson, who will reveal this year's tournament. Commissioner..."

Commissioner, "Thank you Brent. It is my pleasure to announce the teams that will be playing in the 2011-2012 BCS College Football Tournament."

"In the first round, in Pittsburgh, the seventh seed and at-large from the Mountain West conference, the Broncos of Boise State University, will take on the tenth seed, and champion of the Big East conference, the West Virginia University Mountaineers."

"The other first round game will be played in Green Bay, Wisconsin, where the eighth seed, the Badgers of the University of Wisconsin, champion of the Big Ten Conference, will play the ninth seeded Clemson University Tigers, champions of the Atlantic Coast Conference."

"So let's move onto the BCS bowl quarterfinals. The winner of the Wisconsin/Clemson match-up will move on to the Orange Bowl, to play the top seed, the Louisiana State University Tigers, champions of the Southeastern Conference."

"The winner of the Orange Bowl, will take on the winner of the Rose Bowl, which will feature the fourth seed, for the second consecutive season, an at-large team from the Pacific Ten conference, the Cardinal of Stanford University, and at-large team from the Southeastern Conference, the sixth seeded University of Arkansas Razorbacks."

"The winner of the Boise State/West Virginia game will move on to the Sugar Bowl, to play the number two seed, and at-large team from the Southeastern Conference, the Crimson Tide of the University of Alabama."

"The Sugar Bowl winner will take on the winner of the remaining quarterfinal game, the Fiesta Bowl, which will feature the third seed, champion of the Big XII conference, the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who will play the fifth seed, and champion of the Pac-12 conference, the Ducks of the University of Oregon."

"The winners of the BCS quarterfinals will meet in Saint Louis for Football's Final Four, and the winner of the semi-finals will play for the BCS championship, right here, in New Orleans."

Brent, "Thank you Commissioner, it shapes up to be yet another exciting tournament. How close was Texas Christian to making it in to the tournament, and how close was it for the final at-large spot?"

Commissioner, "TCU finished 18th in the standings, and Kansas State finished behind Boise State, but it was not a narrow margin, but the Wildcats had a great season."

Brent, "And the one wrinkle I noticed was the fourth seed plays the sixth, and the third is slated to play fifth seed."

Commissioner, "Yes Brent, our guidelines of preventing regular season rematches during the First Round and BCS Quarterfinals were applied because Stanford and Oregon played each other in their Pac-12 schedule. Also notice that LSU could not play in the Sugar Bowl, because of our guidelines that a team cannot have home state advantage in more than one tournament game, and the championship is right here in New Orleans."

Brent, "Thank you Commissioner, and now back to the studio."

(microphones pick up unsuspecting continuing conversation)

Brent, "Good job Commissioner. You did fine."

Commissioner, "I think I looked fat."

Brent, "No, that suit did an excellent job of slimming you."

Commissioner, "Thanks. Doesn't that Rece Davis look like Peter Brady?"

Brent, "Mmm, who is he?"

Commissioner, "You know, from the Brady Bunch?"

Brent, "No, who is this Rece Davis of whom you speak?"

(back to the studio)

Rece, "Thank you Brent and thank you Commissioner. Well, no TCU, but Boise will represent the Mountain West as an at-large team. My first reaction is that no games look like a cake walk. There will be a lot of good match-ups. The one that, based on their history, might be the most obvious favorite is Boise State over West Virginia, and that is based mostly on their history in the tournament"

Lou, "That's right, believe me, no one wants to play Boise State. Five years ago they beat Oklahoma and Ohio State, two years ago they beat Cincinnati and Texas, playing without Colt McCoy. Chris Peterson always has his team ready with gimmicks and tomfoolery. Believe me, the top six teams are a bit relieved that they first have to go to Pittsburgh to face West Virginia."

Rece, "In fact, look at this graphic. If you had said six years ago, at the start of the ten team era, that one of the leaders in tournament appearances would be Boise State..."

Lou, "Man, I would have said, 'You're nuts, you are a crazy person!'"

Rece, "So here is the list, Boise State only trailing Ohio State and Oklahoma over the past six seasons..."

Ohio State	4	2006, 2007, 2009, 2010
Oklahoma	4	2006, 2007, 2008, 2010
Florida	3	2006, 2008, 2009
USC	3	2006, 2007, 2008
Virginia Tech	3	2007, 2008, 2010
Alabama	3	2008, 2009, 2011
Boise State	3	2006, 2009, 2011
LSU	3	2006, 2007, 2011
Oregon	3	2009, 2010, 2011
Wisconsin	3	2006, 2010, 2011
Cincinnati	2	2008, 2009
TCU	2	2009, 2010
Texas	2	2008, 2009
Arkansas	2	2010, 2011
Stanford	2	2010, 2011
West Virginia	2	2007, 2011
Auburn	1	2010
Connecticut	1	2010
Georgia	1	2007
Georgia Tech	1	2009
Hawaii	1	2007
Iowa	1	2009
Kansas	1	2007
Louisville	1	2006
Michigan	1	2006
Missouri	1	2007
Penn State	1	2008
Texas Tech	1	2008
Utah	1	2008
Wake Forest	1	2006
Oklahoma State	1	2011
Clemson	1	2011

Mark, "But remember, the game will be in Pittsburgh, a city pretty familiar to me, because as a conference champion automatic qualifier, West Virginia received the 'regional advantage.' Now this is the third time that Pittsburgh has hosted a First Round game, and the previous two times, the team with the regional advantage won: West Virginia over Kansas four seasons ago, and Penn State over Cincinnati in 2008. So, don't count out the Mountaineers. Truthfully, this could be a close game, or Boise State could make it one ugly day for West Virginia if they grab the momentum early."

Rece, "And one consequence of going to ten teams was the advent of the First Round games, which cities love to get, and has really taken the tournament across the country. You can see over the last six seasons, Pittsburgh now matches Charlotte with three First Round games. But the new site is one the tournament has always wanted, a game in 'the frozen tundra,' Lambeau Field, Green Bay, where Wisconsin will play Clemson."

First Round Game Sites During the Ten Team Era:

Charlotte	3
Pittsburgh	3
Boise	1
San Diego	1
Seattle	1
Cincinnati	1
Dallas Green Bay	1 1

Lou, "I think this is great for college football, to play a game at such a football shrine. But poor Clemson has to make a trip there. Clemson showed me though in the ACC Championship Game, don't take them for granted."

Mark, "I think that is the key, Wisconsin will be favored, but they have not always put teams away when they should. They were up 21-7 over Michigan State, yet things turned around and it went down to the wire. I really think the Tigers can win this game."

Rece, "So the winner of Wisconsin and Clemson will get the decided challenge of playing the number one seed, the mighty Tigers of LSU. Coach, can LSU be vulnerable?"

Lou, "LSU is one the greatest teams I have ever seen, but Wisconsin has a lot of great offensive threats, and I think they could beat LSU if they play a perfect game. Clemson, well, they may be challenged to beat a team like LSU."

Rece, "The winner of the Orange Bowl will play the winner of the Rose Bowl, between at-large teams Stanford and Arkansas. Mark, what do you think of this match-up?"

Mark, "This one is very evenly matched. Give so much credit to Stanford's players and coaches, two years in a row as the fourth seed is quite an accomplishment. They can make some noise in this tournament, as they made the Final Four last season by pulling away from Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. But they may have peaked during their win at USC, they seem a little banged up, and maybe Andrew Luck is feeling some of the pressure of expectations. Bobby Petrino has Arkansas back in the tournament for the second year in a row, and it has to be a thrill to play in Pasadena. Arkansas is hoping that the Saint Louis Semi-Finals will feel like an SEC West reunion."

Rece, "On the other side of the bracket is Alabama, who will play a Sugar Bowl against the Boise State/West Virginia victor. Coach, can these teams keep up with Alabama?"

Lou, "Certainly, Boise State has proven it can play with anybody. But in the five previous seasons of the ten-team tournament, the second seed is five wins out of five to make the Final Four, so Alabama has history on its side."

Rece, "The Sugar Bowl winner will play the winner of the Fiesta Bowl, a battle of two conference champions, Oklahoma State and Oregon. Oregon now has the longest active string of tournament appearances, at three straight. Oklahoma State has not been in the tournament in a while, and its most memorable appearance was back in 1985's Cotton Bowl, let's look at some video. Quarterback Rusty Hilger gave the eighth seeded Cowboys an early lead over top seed BYU. But there is BYU's quarterback Robbie Bosco, limping through an injury, but bringing the Cougars to tie the game before regulation. But, here is OSU kicking a field goal for an overtime victory to beat the number one seed."

Lou, "And this was the same year Doug Flutie and Boston College knocked off the second seed, Barry Switzer's Oklahoma. Third seed Washington was the highest ranked team to make the Final Four, along with Nebraska. Wow, that was a crazy year."

Mark, "One strange thing is that, unlike the second seed, the third seed is 0-5 over the past five seasons. It is a very interesting match-up, and Oregon is supremely talented, but sometimes they just don't seem to show up for big games if the going gets tough. This is an interesting game, because it is the only BCS Quarterfinal without an SEC West team."

Rece, "So let's review the tournament..."


First Round:

Pittsburgh: #7 Boise State (at-large) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Green Bay: #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #9 Clemson (ACC Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Wisconsin/Clemson winner

Rose: #4 Stanford (at large) versus #6 Arkansas (at-large)

Sugar: #2 Alabama (at-large) versus Boise State/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #3 Oklahoma State (Big XII champ) versus #5 Oregon (Pac-12 winner)


Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans

Rece, "It should be a great great tournament. For the Hall of Famer, Lou Holtz, and Mark May, good night from the ESPN studios."

Three BCS projections give the nod to Arkansas and Boise State as the last two teams into my tourney

Yes, the rest of the "sane" BCS world is fixated on the battle for number two between Oklahoma State and Alabama. In fact, two of the sites that I rely upon to provide unofficial BCS projections say that Oklahoma State will get number two, so I can also read some Alabama fans hatred at the speculation in the comments sections. Wow, a little intense fellas, why don't you go out and poison some trees. Come on Tide, you had your chance AT HOME, in the current system of every week matters, OSU deserves their chance.

And I don't know the methodology of the projections, but I think it should be more probabilistic than "OSU is number 2" or "Bama made it in." As a statistician, I guess I think it should be simulation based, and OSU has x probability, et cetera. We don't know how people will vote, but we can make assumptions and simulate it.

But in my world, the Cowboys and Tide are comfortably into my tournament, and the drama surrounds whether TCU make the top 16 and get in, and based on the projections, it appears they will not. Then, in addition to Stanford and Alabama, who will get the last two at-large berths? All three projections indicate that Boise State and Arkansas will be the last two teams into the tournament. Kansas State seems to be the team that will be on the outside, and wishing I had a two team per conference limit.

Here are three tournament projections based on BCS projections. Note in the first, the Sugar will be feverishly trying to get the Rose to swap games.

PROJECTION #1: bcsguru.com

First Round:

Pittsburgh: #7 Arkansas (at-large) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Green Bay: #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #9 Clemson (ACC Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Wisconsin/Clemson winner

Sugar (or Rose): #4 Stanford (at large) versus #6 Boise State (at-large)

Fiesta: #2 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus Arkansas/West Virginia winner

Rose (or Sugar): #3 Alabama (at-large) versus #5 Oregon (Pac-12 winner)


Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans
-----------------

PROJECTION #2: bcsknowhow.com

First Round:

Seattle: #7 Oregon (Pac-12 winner) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Green Bay: #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #9 Clemson (ACC Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Wisconsin/Clemson winner

Rose: #4 Stanford (at large) versus #6 Arkansas (at-large)

Fiesta: #2 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus Oregon/West Virginia winner

Sugar: #3 Alabama (at-large) versus #5 Boise State (at-large)


Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans

-----------------

PROJECTION #3: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/bcs

First Round:

Seattle: #7 Oregon (Pac-12 winner) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Green Bay: #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #9 Clemson (ACC Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Wisconsin/Clemson winner

Rose: #4 Stanford (at large) versus #5 Arkansas (at-large)

Sugar: #2 Alabama (at-large) versus Oregon/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #3 Oklahoma State (Big XII champ) versus #6 Boise State (at-large)


Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans

Saturday is over!: Five teams in, eleven other teams alive, five eliminated from tourney contention

Twenty-one teams were alive for the tournament at the start of the week. As of now, we are at....16!

The Big East went according to form, but Houston's loss created questions questions questions? Will TCU, or even the impressive Southern Miss, whom I had discounted, take the Houston's slot? Or will a spot now open to allow both Boise and Arkansas?

Get ready boys, we may be in for a bumpy ride!


Log into Orbitz and look into some flights: They are in (5)!:

Pac-12 Champ: Oregon
SEC Champ: LSU
ACC Champ: Clemson
Big Ten Champ: Wisconsin
Big XII Champ: Oklahoma State

You can pencil in some tournament time: They are practically in (1):
West Virginia

We will keep your resume on file: They are probably out (2):
Cincinnati
Louisville

Hand in your uniforms: They are out (5)!

UCLA eliminated 49-31 in Pac-12 championship
Houston eliminated 49-28 in Conference USA Championship
Georgia eliminated 42-10 in SEC Championship
Oklahoma eliminated 44-10 in their Big XII finale
Michigan State eliminated 42-39 in the Big Ten Championship

They still have a chance (8):

Non AQ-Conference Automatic Qualifier: TCU or none

At-Large contenders (3 or 4):
Alabama
Stanford
Boise State
Arkansas
Virginia Tech (if they lose)
Kansas State
South Carolina

Championship Week is here! Boise State and Arkanses in razor close race for last at-large spot

Yes, only my little tournament and I were waiting with great anticipation when the latest BCS standings came out, not to see who were numbers one and two, but to see how far down Arkansas fell. See, the last at-large spot in the ten-team tourney is currently held by Boise State, who ended up with a wire thin lead over Arkansas. Going into the last week of the season, the Broncos lead is precarious though. If LSU wins over Georgia, then Boise State’s key signature win of the season (over Georgia also in Atlanta) may be downgraded in the computer ratings. But if Georgia wins, they grab the SEC bid, and LSU most likely grabs the third at-large spot, also leaving out the Broncos. Plus, with the workings of the computer algorithms, Boise playing a 1-10 New Mexico team may have another negative impact on the computer rankings.

For both Boise State and Arkansas, they have to root for any team above them in a conference championship game to win out, because they don’t need any more competition for at-large bids from falling teams like LSU, Oklahoma State, or, to a lesser extent, Virginia Tech.

Right now, there are three slots available for at-large teams, and it seems like Alabama and Stanford have two of them sewn up. A fourth could open up if Houston loses, and TCU fails to make the top 16. The surprising thing out of the latest rankings was Houston jumped to a projected sixth seed, over Boise State. Certainly, that is huge for the Cougars to advance right to a BCS quarterfinal bowl and skip the First Round. But also, a potential third seed like Oklahoma State, though not discarding Houston, has to see that as a break over playing teams like Boise State, Oregon, Arkansas, or Wisconsin. As I have said before, no one wants to play Boise State, and if they are placed in a First Round game or miss the tourney, the top seeds will be relieved that someone else can deal with the Broncos first.

The challenge right now for the tournament brackets are the guidelines to not have teams replay regular season games in the First or BCS Quarterfinal rounds, and LSU has played too many of these teams! Usually, LSU would play one of the winners of the First Round games, but potentially, the Tigers may have played three of the four already: Oregon, West Virginia, and maybe Arkansas. If that is the case, LSU may end up playing a sixth seed Houston in their BCS Quarterfinal.

And the Rose Bowl is not thrilled at how all this is working out, with their Big Ten and Pac-12 champs looking like First Round teams and Stanford potentially tied to the Orange Bowl playing ACC champ Virginia Tech. They may find a receptive trader in the Orange Bowl though. Miami may prefer an LSU versus Boise State/Big Ten Champ game than the VTU-Stanford match-up, especially if the Badgers win. But if that were guaranteed, the Rose Bowl would grab that game also. If Stanford-VTU was the Rose Bowl, all but one party will be happy. The happy would be Stanford, the Hokies getting a chance to play in Pasadena, the Orange and Rose Bowls. But the ACC may not be thrilled that their bowl tie-in would discard their champ.

So here are the 21 teams I see as still alive for the 10-team tournament:

ACC Champ: Virginia Tech or Clemson
Big Ten Champ: Michigan State or Wisconsin
Big XII Champ: Oklahoma or Oklahoma State
SEC Champ: LSU or Georgia
Pac-12 Champ: Oregon or UCLA
Big East Champ: West Virginia, Cincinnati, or Louisville

Non AQ-Conference Automatic Qualifier: Houston or TCU or neither

At-Large contenders (3 or 4):
Alabama
Stanford
Boise State
Arkansas
LSU (if they lose)
Oklahoma State (if they lose)
Virginia Tech (if they lose)
Kansas State
South Carolina

So here are the projections, as of now:

First Round:

Detroit: #7 Boise State (at-large) versus #9 Michigan State (Big Ten champ)

Seattle: #8 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Rose: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Boise State/Michigan State winner

Orange: #4 Stanford (at large) versus #5 Virginia Tech (ACC Champ)

Sugar: #2 Alabama (at large) versus Oregon/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #3 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus #6 Houston (Conf USA champ, non-BCS conference AQ)

Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans

Thanksgiving is here, serious tournament planning can commence

Last weekend was supposed to be the calm before the college football storm. After all, every team with hopes of making my tournament was a double digit favorite, with the exception of two: Cincy favored over Rutgers (underdog won) and OSU over PSU (underdog won). We didn't know that lots of big underdogs would win also.

The impact started on Thursday night when one-loss Southern Miss, with dreams of beating Houston and making the tournament, lost to two-win UAB.

Then it continued Friday when Oklahoma State went down. At the time, that seemed like it would really knock the Cowboys down lots o' notches, but when the other bedlam occurred Saturday, OSU ended up back as fourth seed, and may move up to third with an Arkansas loss, with eyes still on the Fiesta Bowl.

The biggest impact of the OSU loss was the additive effect with the Oklahoma loss, which took the OSU/OU loser from their bedlam game, and turning them into a possibly below the bubble team from a solid at-large team.

All of the other losses brought Stanford back into controlling their own destiny for an at-large and giving Boise State some movement into at-large consideration. Boise State's biggest advantage is that no team is breathing down their necks, behind the Broncos are Houston, who are basically their own opponent for a berth in the tourney, the Sooners, who may lose again, and Oregon who is not competing for an at-large, yet. Kansas State and South Carolina still have at-large hopes, but Boise seems to be in a better position.

The Rose Bowl was most unhappy with the results, which now look to put the Pac-12/Big Ten winners into the First Round, perhaps against one another. If Stanford ends up matched up against ACC champ VTU in the Orange Bowl, the Rose Bowl may be hard pressed to find a match-up with Pac-12/Big Ten ties.

Another surprise was that with all of these crazy results, TCU went from 19th to 20th, no benefit at all. They are looking like they may not be in position to replace Houston if the Cougars go down as the non-AQ conference AQ.

So right now, the at-large teams for either three or four spots (if Houston loses)

1) Alabama
2) LSU/Arkansas loser
3) Stanford
4) Boise State

If Georgia wins the SEC championship game, would the three at-large teams be all SEC West schools? Only time will tell if such scenarios, or ones we cannot even fathom (like Arizona State making the tourney) play out.


So here are the projections, as of now:

First Round:

San Antonio: #7 Houston (Conf USA champ, non-BCS conference AQ) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Seattle: #8 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) versus #9 Michigan State (Big Ten champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Michigan State or Houston/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #4 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus #5 Virginia Tech (ACC Champ)

Sugar: #2 Alabama (at large) versus Oregon or Houston/West Virginia winner

Rose: #3 Arkansas (at-large) versus #6 Stanford (at large)

Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans

Turkey in the offing; Tourney speculation starts to heat up

Usually, trying to figure out the teams that will make my tournament is fruitless before Thanksgiving. With turkey on the verge of going from annoying to delicious, here is how the tournament shakes out so far.

LSU - The Tigers are at the pinnacle, win out and they are the number one seed of the tournament. Due to tournament rules that teams cannot have more than one game with home state advantage, LSU, even if they win the SEC, cannot play in the Sugar Bowl because the championship game is in New Orleans. So, most likely, an undefeated LSU will go to the Orange Bowl as the top seed. But Arkansas or the SEC East champ can ruin this dream. After all, where is the Les Miles who makes kooky decisions at crunch time? Two seasons ago, LSU had the inside track to the last at-large bid, but they blew it. I still see a good chance that when all is said and done, there will be absolutely no unbeaten teams prior to the bowls. But under any circumstances, LSU should be in the tourney, either as SEC champ or at-large.

Oklahoma State - Prior to the season, the predictions were that Oklahoma would win the Big XII, with Oklahoma State and Texas A & M as a toss-up for Big XII at-large. Well, for the first half of their head to head match-up, it seemed like A & M would emerge over OSU. But OSU stormed back in the second half and has not looked back, even surpassing Oklahoma, so far, with a Fiesta Bowl game in sight. The Cowboys seem like a shoe-in to make the tourney no matter what the outcome with the Sooners. Plus, if they stay number two seed, often it seems like getting the winner of the 7-10 first round game can provide what seems like a less challenging opponent that the 8-9 winner. Especially if 7-10 turns out to be a match-up like Houston versus the Big East champ.

Alabama - Right now, the Tide seems likely to be a top four team, with a Sugar Bowl awaiting. So do they want Arkansas to upend LSU so that the Tide could have a chance at an SEC championship and top two seed? Top two seed has its advantages, but also means adding an SEC championship game in Atlanta. Bama might be happy just letting LSU play the extra game. Unless in-state rival Auburn pulls an upset, Alabama seems a likely tourney lock.

Oregon - The Ducks, Ohio State, and TCU are the only teams that have been in the last two tournaments, and Oregon seems most likely to make it three in a row. They still have a game with USC, but the Rose Bowl is happy that a Pac-12 team is positioned to play in Pasadena, since the Big Ten champ appears likely to have to play in the First Round game.

Oklahoma - The Sooners still have a chance to propel into the top four and gain a Fiesta Bowl birth, but even with a loss, they may be a likely at-large team. Last season, with two losses, the Sooners were behind one-loss Stanford and ahead of one-loss Boise State in the final rankings, and if that happens again, that may be enough to make the tournament as an at-large team even with a loss.

Arkansas - The Razorbacks have a chance to return to the tournament after being the eight seed last season. If Arkansas can beat LSU, likely three SEC West teams make the tourney. But if the SEC East rep wins the SEC, all bets are off. If Arkansas loses to LSU, they would be hard pressed to stay in the tourney, since last season, two loss Arkansas was behind both one-loss Stanford and two-loss Oklahoma in the seedings, and if you throw in Bama as an at-large, three at-large teams would be all accounted for. A Houston loss could open a slot for the Hogs though.

Clemson - The tourney would love to see Clemson represent the ACC as a new face. But they may find the same fate at Georgia Tech two seasons ago. GTU was cruising toward a top six seeding, but took a beating during their non-conference finale with SEC Georgia. The Wreck bounced back to win the ACC, but found themselves in the First Round traveling to Cincinnati to play Ohio State. Maybe Clemson will do the same, winning the ACC but with a loss to South Carolina pushing them into a First Round game at Lambeau or Ford Field in Big Ten country.

Virginia Tech - Yeah, another appearance by the Hokies is not optimal, but a least they may get into the top six this time. If they survive the ACC battles, a Rose Bowl against Oregon may await the Hokies.

Stanford - Currently ninth in the rankings, finishing in the top seven will get teams into the tournament this season (unless the ACC champ also drops to the automatic qualifiers that are back of the pack). So Stanford is not a shoe-in, but if they win out and look impressive enough over Notre Dame, I think the Cardinal will be back for a repeat visit to the tournament. After all, they have to jump from 9th to 7th, but 3 teams ahead of them will lose (Okla-OSU, LSU-Ark, Clemson-VTU). But a fourth seed like last season, which propelled Stanford on a run to the final four, is unlikely. And if Stanford ends up the seventh seed with a trip to play the Big East champ, it will be interesting if they end up playing in Lucas Oil stadium to play Cincy or Louisville to give Colts fans a look at Andrew Luck.

Boise State - Yes, another season on the path to being a top four seed, and a late season lapse. They still have a shot, but it seems like the Broncos will be on the outside looking in again this season. Last season, one loss BSU was ranked behind one-loss Stanford, two loss Oklahoma, and two loss Arkansas, and if the same thing happens, there will be no room in the inn for Boise State. They have a chance, but it will be tough. But believe me, no one wants to play the Broncos. After beating Oklahoma and Ohio State five seasons ago in the tourney, and two seasons ago beating Cincinnati and Texas on the way to a championship game loss to Florida, BSU is scary.

Houston - The Cougars control their own destiny now that Boise State lost, but they certainly have a few obstacles in their path over the last three weeks. Although not an optimal tourney team, if they end up playing the Big Ten champ in San Antonio, tournament organizers will be happy. But if Houston moves to the 7th seed and plays the Big East champ, maybe in College Station to try to sell more tickets due to proximity to Houston, it will not be an optimal match-up.

Michigan State, Wisconsin - Although the BCS bowls love Big Ten teams and it seems like only one Big Ten team will make it, and at that play in a First Round game, even that can be interesting. If they can have the geographic advantage, having a First Round game in Green Bay or Detroit will generate some interest. And if they have to travel to San Antonio (vs Houston), Atlanta (vs Clemson), or Charlotte (vs Virginia Tech), they certainly will travel well. Yes, it is possible Penn State will emerge, but even before the scandal, that seemed unlikely.

Big East champ - Yes, they will be the 1oth seed, I guarantee it. Somebody will take this thing, won't they?

TCU, Southern Miss - It seemed like a third straight appearance for Horned Frogs seemed unlikely, but now, don't count out TCU. They are 19th, and if Houston falls, if they propel themselves to the top 16, TCU is in. As long as they can stay ahead of Southern Miss, who might leap frog the Horned Frogs with a quality win over Houston. If Houston falls, this could be interesting, and TCU or Southern Miss may find themselves as 9th seed traveling to Big Ten country.

Pac-12 South - No, I am not going to apologize for thinking the Legends and Leaders is a stupid idea just because the Pac-12 may send UCLA, Arizona State, or Utah to the championship game. Their problem is USC on probation, not geographic divisions. MSU and Wisconsin probably will make the Big Ten finale, and this would be the same if they had nice east-west divisions.

So here are the projections, as of now:

First Round:

Atlanta: #7 Clemson (ACC champ) versus #10 Cincinnati (Big East Champ)

San Antonio: #8 Houston (Conf USA champ, non-BCS conference AQ) versus #9 Michigan State (Big Ten champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Houston/Michigan State winner

Rose: #4 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) versus #6 Arkansas (at-large)

Fiesta: #2 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus Clemson/Cincinnati winner

Sugar: #3 Alabama (at large) versus #5 Oklahoma (at large)

Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans

Tournament Projections, Week 2, 2011

"In college football, one day you're in, the next day, you're out" - Dayne Crist

Since last week, OUT: Virginia Tech; IN: Oregon (flip flop of last week)

Playoff projections based on the fine work of BCSguru.com

First Round:

Jacksonville FL: #7 Florida State (ACC champ) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ); Florida State keeps going in and out of the top six. This week versus Oklahoma will help determine if FSU is down here with the First Rounders or on their way to the top six with an Orange Bowl shot. And will the Big East ever be out of the ten seed? Two years ago, the Big East started with no ranked teams, but Cincy went undefeated to grab the three seed. UConn decided the ten seed was just fine with them last season.


Green Bay WI: #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #9 Oregon (at-large); Finally, a Pac-10 or 12 team has to go to Big Ten country rather than vice versa. Oregon returns after a week away from the projections.

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Sugar: #1 Alabama (SEC champ) versus Florida State or Wisconsin/Oregon winner; Bama bounces back to the top with the win at PSU. Wonder if things would have been different if the Bama fake punt was spotted an inch or two back.

Rose: #4 Boise State (non-BCS conference AQ) versus #5 Stanford (Pac-12 champ); Kinda like the Western Regional; a team from out west will be in St Louis, if this holds.

Fiesta: #2 Oklahoma (Big XII winner) versus West Virginia or Wisconsin/Oregon winner; Fiesta gets the odds on chance of Oklahoma-Wisconsin; AZ would love that

Orange: #3 Louisiana State (at large) versus #6 Oklahoma State (at large); The at-large bowl...Oklahoma State jumps into the top six

Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis


National Championship in New Orleans

Week 1, 2011, Tourney Projections

Based on the first weekend of college football and the BCS estimates at BCSguru.com, here are the latest tournament projections.

"In college football, one day you're in, the next day, you're out" - Marcus Dupree

Since last week, OUT: Oregon; IN: Virginia Tech

First Round:

Green Bay WI: #7 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Arlington TX: #8 Oklahoma State (at-large) versus #9 Virginia Tech (at-large)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Fiesta: #1 Oklahoma (Big XII winner) versus Virginia Tech or Wisconsin/West Virginia winner

Rose: #4 Boise State (non-BCS conference AQ) versus #5 Stanford (Pac-12 champ)

Orange: #2 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Oklahoma State or Wisconsin/West Virginia winner

Sugar: #3 Alabama (at-large) versus #6 Florida State (ACC champ)


Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis


National Championship in New Orleans

First weekend thoughts...

After a weekend of college football, we already have some insights into the real and imaginary (this blog) college football bowl picture.

-Did the Big East leaders look at each other after TCU's loss to Baylor and say, "This is our football solution? We are making our basketball teams fly to Texas to play these guys, for this?!" TCU will be hard pressed to make the tourney this last season before being part of the Big East. They are not eliminated, but they have little room for error.

-The current longest string of appearances in my tournament is a whopping TWO, with Oregon, TCU, and Ohio State being the only schools in the playoffs the previous two seasons. And they went 1-2 in week 1.

-Will Oregon's two consecutive losses to Auburn and LSU (both in real life and my tourney), and topped by the fact that their high powered offense looked underwhelming against the size and speed of these SEC foes, take some wind from their sails? It seems like it would be hard to be enthusiastic to get back on their high powered steed knowing they still need to get over a big hurdle to be real title contenders.

-I am not so old school that I am not opposed to trash talking. After all, I grew up during the Muhammad Ali era. But trash talking over nothing plays and when your team is struggling seems out of place and annoying. For the first three quarters, Auburn was up chirping in the face of every Utah State player seemingly after every play. I kept wondering what they were saying, "We may stink now, but YOU'LL never get a championship ring!" or "Sure we may lose today,but you have to go back to Ogden!" Alas, Auburn prevailed, but Utah State won the class battle.

-Any tournament would love to have Notre Dame, but, like TCU, the Irish are on the precipice of tournament elimination already. And their first drive gave credence to their pre-season hype. One wonders if that first fumble had been ruled stopped due to forward progress, would the game have progressed in a completely different direction.

-If Texas and Oklahoma join a Pac-16, does New Mexico look at a map and say, "Hey, what's wrong with us!"

-Boise State, you guys are allowed to start trash talking now. What a cool program. And I read that a rule has been made so that the Broncos cannot wear blue uniforms on their blue field. But does that apply to teams with green uniforms on normally green-toned turf?

-My guess, Oregon and West Virginia will be out of my projections, and Virginia Tech and South Florida will jump in.

2011 Pre-Season: September Means College Football is Back!

Tomorrow is September 1st. Does that mean I will wake up and belt out Neil Diamond's "September Morn"? Probably. But also it means it is time for the first college football games of 2011 AD. The key games that will start to define my college football tournament will be LSU-Oregon and Boise State-Georgia, but who knows what other game we will look back at in December as one that kick started the road to Number One.

So based on BCSguru.com's pre-season BCS estimate, let's look at the first projection of 2011's post season college football tournament. Truthfully, the committee would not like this result. The guideline to avoid First Round and Quarterfinal Bowls match-ups that are re-matches of regular season games provides some complexity because Oregon-Stanford and Oklahoma's games against Florida State and Oklahoma State. We hope the real pairings by the time December rolls around will be less complicated!

First Round:

Jacksonville FL:

#7 Florida State (ACC champ) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ) - Not since 2005 has Florida State been in the tournament and many are predicting a return. Some even envision FSU as a top four team. West Virginia is the consensus Big East favorite, although some like Pitt and South Florida to gain the spot, a likely #10 seed no matter who predicts.

Green Bay WI:

#8 Oklahoma State (at-large) versus #9 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) - Green Bay wanted to host the Big Ten championship game, but this would be a nice consolation prize. OSU just hopes the tundra would only be partially frozen.

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl:

#1 Alabama (SEC champ) versus Florida State (if Florida State and Wisconsin win) or the Oklahoma State-Wisconsin winner (otherwise) - Alabama may have been the best team not in the tournament last year, and they hope to return to top seed this season.

Orange Bowl:

#4 Louisiana State (at-large) versus #5 Boise State (non-BCS conference AQ)(if Florida State and Oklahoma State win) or #6 Stanford (at-large)(otherwise)

Fiesta:

#2 Oklahoma (Big XII winner) versus Stanford (if Florida State and Oklahoma State win) or Wisconsin (if Florida State and Wisconsin win) or West Virginia (otherwise)

Rose:

#3 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) versus Florida State (if Florida State and Oklahoma State win) or Boise State (otherwise)

Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis


National Championship in New Orleans

A Mnemonic to Remember the Big Ten's Legends and Leaders Divisions: I Owe Nelson Money

A few weeks ago, I read a football article that mentioned something like, "Wisconsin is now the favorite in the Leaders Division." My first reaction was, "I don't have a clue who else is in the Leaders Division, and that Wisconsin was even in the Leaders Division!" But I have solved my problem with a handy mnemonic, that I hope will take off like Roy G. Biv, and the countless others that I have forgotten over the years.

First of all, the hardest part was actually spelling "mnemonic" so I developed a mnemonic for that: My Neurotic Eagle Mimics Owls Nesting in Caves." That solved, on to the Big Ten!

So my handy mnemonic is "I owe Nelson Money." That is IoNM. One division is comprised of the schools that start with M, N, or Io, so Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Iowa are in one division, and the rest in the other. But is this the Legends or Leaders division, you ask? Well, it is LegeNds, because Legends is the only division name that contains an M, N, I, or O.

Anyway, that is how I will keep the divisions straight. Of course, we need these divisions because doing East and West, based on Lake Michigan and the Indiana/Illinois border, would have been so unbalanced (insert sarcasm here). That would have required trading Michigan and Michigan State to the other division for Wisconsin and Illinois, and the balance of power would be so drastically changed (insert heavier, more annoying sarcasm here), that it would have ruined sporting life as we know it.

Colleges Plan a Fall Lockout of Non-Revenue Athletes

Buoyed by the favorable ruling for the NFL owners in their lock-out of players, a plan has been pushed forward among NCAA athletic directors to lock out athletes receiving scholarships playing for teams categorized as "non-revenue" sports when students return this fall. Therefore, all athletes in sports other than football and men's basketball will not be given access to dormitories, training facilities, or any other campus buildings. Citing sky-rocketing coaches salaries and travel expenses in the revenue sports, plus the flood of early entrants to the pros, universities are demanding non-revenue athletes cut their costs.

"This is getting ridiculous," a Big Ten athletic director said while asking for anonymity, "We just need some balance. Star football players need to sell their memorabilia just to get some decent body art, while Joe Archery is getting three squares a day, and all the bows and arrows he needs. He'll learn why our best revenue athletes need 'street cred' when he returns to campus and has to sleep on the sidewalk, and when he pays for, or hunts, his own food. We will see the extent of his true 'love of the game.' Literally!"

One of the proposals for these non-revenue athletes is that they pay for their own uniforms and equipment, plus find their own rides to competitions held off campus. "Do you know how many baseballs we go through in a year? Ridiculous, these guys could pony up for some balls and bats," the AD commented, "And every time they decide to slide into a base, the cleaning bill takes an extra cafeteria ice cream novelty from a hungry running back. The selfishness!"

"And what have these kids been doing since they were young? Finding a ride to their games or practice! Why do we need to find a bus or comfortable vans for these 'voting age adult' players now? Four dollar gas in a bus, give me a break! Come on non-rev athlete, ask a buddy, ride a bike. Heck, I would walk miles to Little League practice because I never learned to ride a two wheeler," another AD chimed in.

Players are also being asked to attend class less, at a rate comparable to the revenue sports. "The non-revenue student-athletes, bless their hearts, attend every class," an unnamed ACC president said, "But these students take away desks and lab bench stools from non-scholarship students who would like to matriculate here and fund our university to the tune of several thousand dollars a year. We need the non-revenue athlete to chip in like their football brethren, and only attend class sporadically, if at all. What has some soccer player on a full ride, for a sport that only one student name Wolfgang is interested in, done to deserve such an academic windfall?"

Athletic directors also think they can stem the tide of football and men's basketball players leaving early for the professional ranks if they provide some non-economic benefits for the revenue players. "Some of these 'one and done' basketball players, they'd like to stay in college, but the appeal of the NBA lifestyle can't currently be matched by NCAA institutions," a prominent Big East coach stated. So one NCAA proposal is that the non-revenue athletes will serve as butlers for the revenue generating athletes. "Why should we be spending time and money for some cross country runner to practice, when they could be running around picking up dry cleaning for a star point guard, getting a better workout in the meantime?" the coach opined. The coach gave an example that for the past two seasons, mid-major school Butler made the NCAA championship game. "That can't be a coincidence, that a school that trains butlers has such a solid, well rested team!" the coach added, "Each Butler player probably has about 100 kids named Jeeves assisting his every whim. What, they don't train butlers there? Then why are they called Butler University, I am pretty sure they do."

Non-revenue athletes, particularly the golfers, have asked their parents, many of whom are attorneys, to help fight the new proposals. But it may be an uphill battle. "Frankly, I am not sure anyone will notice we are not playing," one tennis player lamented, "I have a feeling my days will be spent shining shoes and cleaning up pizza boxes for one of the eight quarterbacks on scholarship."

Seems like Iowa's players aren't exactly enjoying some post-season quality time

In January, 13 Iowa football players were hospitalized with serious conditions including kidney dysfunction. Apparently, this was potentially tied to multiple factors, but the recurring theme is one of hyper-strenuous post-season workouts.

So when the argument is made that a tournament would lengthen the season, taking away precious time from studies, think about the Iowa players. They weren't exactly given a vacation once the final whistle was blown in their bowl game. And if their workouts are making the papers, there has to be the same type, perhaps not at the same level, going on with players all over the country. So even though the stands are empty, and purists can assume the books are open and players are filling library carrels, there is more going on, so that four teams playing into January in a tournament would be a fraction of the interruption than some would claim.

It's Never Ever Too Early to Think About Next Year's Tourney!! And No Lockouts Here!

Oklahoma appears to be the favorite to say "Meet Me in Saint Louis" on the way to the 2011-2012 tournament championship game in New Orleans. Both ESPN and CNNSI project Oklahoma as the early number one for next seasons football rankings. Based on these two sources, it seems like the projections for next year's tournament place teams into three groups:

THE BIG FOUR: Oklahoma, Oregon, LSU, and Alabama are in the top four of both projections

BEST IN THEIR CONFERENCES: Ohio State, Florida State, and West Virginia are best of their respective bunches according to both sets of rankings.

LEADERS OF THE INITIAL SCRAMBLE FOR THE OTHER THREE SLOTS: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Stanford, Arkansas, Texas Christian, and Boise State made the tourney in one of the two projections. Let the battling begin!

With the championship game in New Orleans, LSU will feel some impact, in that, due to the "only one game with home state advantage" rule, they cannot play in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal, even if they win the SEC, but if they can make it to the finals, they get to taste some in-state home cooking. Here are the two tournament projections:

Scenario I: Based on ESPN.com 2011 Projections

FIRST ROUND:

In Jacksonville, FL:
7 Florida State (ACC Champ)
10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

In Cincinnati, OH:
8 Arkansas (at-large)
9 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Fiesta:
1 Oklahoma (Big XII Champ)
Arkansas/Ohio State winner

Orange:
4 LSU (at-large)
5 Boise State (non-BCS automatic)

Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Florida State/West Virginia winner

Rose:
3 Oregon (Pac Ten champ)
6 Oklahoma State (at-large)

Semi-finals in St Louis:

BCS Championship in New Orleans:

---------------------------

Scenario II: Based on CNNSI.com 2011 Projections

FIRST ROUND:

In Pittsburgh, PA:
7 Texas A&M (at large)
10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

In Houston, TX:
8 Texas Christian (non-BCS automatic)
9 Florida State (ACC Champ)

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Fiesta:
1 Oklahoma (Big XII Champ)
Texas Christian/Florida State winner

Sugar:
4 Alabama (at-large)
5 Stanford (at-large)

Rose:
2 Oregon (Pac Ten champ)
Texas A&M/West Virginia winner

Orange:
3 LSU (SEC champ)
6 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)

Semi-finals in St Louis:

BCS Championship in New Orleans:

War Eagle! Auburn Tops Oregon 30-19 Earning Tourney National Championship

After showing some rust in the quarterfinal BCS bowls against teams that had a First Round victory under their belts, both top seed Auburn and second seed Oregon showed their stuff in the Semi-Finals, with easy wins.

In the championship game, perhaps some of the jitters returned as Auburn's first drive moved down the field until an interception, and Oregon reciprocated with a drive into Tiger territory before losing a fumble. Auburn was three and out though, and the Ducks put up the first points of the game, on a Rob Beard field goal to take the 3-0 lead, which is how the first quarter ended.

The second quarter began during an Auburn march down the field, but the Tigers settled with a 21 yard Wes Byrum field goal. Both teams traded two more field goals, and the game was tied at 6-6 in the final minutes of the first half. The game's tide seemed to turn to Auburn on a late first half blocked punt that the Tigers recovered on the Oregon 10 yard line. With 34 seconds left in the half, Cam Newton ran it in from the one, and Auburn grabbed their first lead as the half ended, 13-6.

Auburn continued to pile yardage in the third quarter but two missed field goals and once turning the ball over on downs kept them scoreless in the frame. However, Oregon made the most of their opportunities, evening the score at 13-13 on a Darron Thomas 2 yard touchdown run midway through the third. Nearing the end of the third, Oregon's Kenjon Barner ran it in from the 1 yard line to give the lead back to Oregon. A failed two-point attempt left Oregon with a 19-13 lead going into the last quarter.

The Tigers seemed ready for another fourth quarter scoring spectacular. Auburn stormed down the field, and Onterio McCalebb scored on a 1 yard run, giving them a 20-19 lead. Oregon seemed a bit shaken and gained -1 yards on a three and out drive. Auburn took the ball on a four minute drive, ending with a Byrum 20 yard field goal, and Tigers had a 23-19 led midway through the fourth quarter.

Oregon and Auburn traded punts, giving the Ducks the ball with three minutes to go. Oregon moved down the field, and were at the Auburn 25 with almost two minutes to go. In a play reminiscent of the Peyton Manning driving against the Saints in the last Super Bowl, Derron Thomas' next pass was picked off a returned 80 yards for a Auburn touchdown, and a solid 30-19 lead with 2:09 left. Oregon moved down the field again, hoping for their own theatrics, but an interception gave Auburn the ball back on their own 5 yard line with seconds left to play. A single kneel down gave the Auburn Tigers the national championship with a 30-19 victory.

St. Pete Semi-Finals: The Unbeatens Cruise to the Championship, Auburn Handles Stanford, Oregon Defeats Ohio State

This may be the only time that St. Petersburg's Tropicana Field hosts the college football Semi-Finals. The small stadium capacity, the "funky" configuration of an indoor baseball stadium for football, and its proximity to BCS Bowl quarterfinal site Miami are all strikes against it. But for this day, with temps outside the dome in the upper sixties, football fans will try to squeeze out as much enjoyment as they can visiting Tropicana Field. Next year another Saint, the less warm Louis of Missouri, hosts the Semi-Finals. But for 2011, the doubleheader begins in Florida, with an SEC champ taking on a Pac Ten at-large team.

GAME 1: #1 Auburn 39, #4 Stanford 17

Many analysts liked Stanford as a team to watch in this tournament. With an impressive 37-20 Rose Bowl victory over Wisconsin, the Cardinal seemed like a team playing with house money, and with the possibility of losing their beloved coach and quarterback a real motivator to take advantage of this opportunity. Last season, the "stepping down" of Urban Meyer seemed to propel the fifth seeded Florida Gators to a title, why not a Stanford/Harbaugh version in 2010-2011?

The game seemed to indicate this direction in the early going. Auburn took the kickoff, and then drove 49 yards in seven plays, but the Cardinal faithful erupted as the Tigers turned the ball over on downs on the Stanford 31. Stanford took the ball on a 6:33, 13 play, 69 drive, capped by an Andrew Luck 11 yard touchdown pass, and the Cardinal grabbed the 7-0 lead. Palo Alto physicists probably wish they could have frozen that moment in time, because the rest of the day belonged to the Tigers.

Auburn took their next possession on a 5 play, 68 yard, barely over two minute drive, capped by a 7-yard Cam Newton TD run. A missed PAT kept the Cardinal with the lead, but their next drive was a dismal 3 play, -13 yard possession, and the ball was punted right back to to Auburn, who proceeded to drive 69 yards on 5 plays in just under a minute and a half. Newton's 28 yard touchdown run capped the drive and gave Auburn their first lead 13-7 less than a minute into the second quarter. The two teams traded 45 yard field goals in the second quarter, before Auburn put together another TD drive, this time Newton passed it in from 22 yards. The half ended with a missed Cardinal field goal attempt, so the Tigers entered the locker room up 22-10 at the half.

The Tigers continued to drive unabated in the second half compiling a 39-10 lead before a late Stanford touchdown pass ended the scoring at 39-17.

Newton finished 17 of 26 for 300 yards passing and another 72 yards rushing, of the total 203 Auburn rushing yards. Auburn was beyond good, they dominated. The Tigers never punted and scored on seven straight possessions after falling behind 7-0. The only times they were stopped were a pair of failed fourth-down attempts and the end of the game. In addition, Auburn sacked Stanford quarterback Luck six times. Auburn earned their birth in the title game, and Stanford will eventually enjoy their taste of final four life, and hope to be back, maybe, in twelve months.

GAME 2: #2 Oregon 35, #6 Ohio State 10

Ohio State gained the most total yards (370 to 312), had the most first downs (32 to 25), and less penalty yards (66 to 65). What is the essential ingredient left that could lead to the Buckeyes losing by 25? Turnovers, OSU four, Oregon zero.

In this matchup of Pac-10 champ versus Big Ten co-champ (aka, "Rose Bowl II" or the "Florida Rose Bowl"), Duck QB Darron Thomas was 25 of 41 for 240 yards, whereas the Bucks passer Terrelle Pryor completed 32 of 50 passes for 280 yards and a touchdown, but he threw three interceptions, including one returned for a 62-yard score.

The Buckeyes had their chances early. But six possessions inside the Oregon territory in the first half resulted in just one touchdown. After Ohio State could not convert a fourth down at the Duck 29-yard line on its opening possession, Thomas found Jeff Maehl practically uncovered down the sideline on a 71 yard TD pass.

Maehl scored for a second time on a 3-yard pass in the third quarter, breaking the game open after Devin Barclay's 42-yard field goal put Ohio State back within two scores. Maehl's TD gave the Ducks a 29-10 lead in the third, and two more Oregon field goals ended the scoring. Ohio State's only other score came in the first quarter on a 5-yard Pryor touchdown pass.

So unlike last season in Syracuse, when #5 Florida upended #1 Alabama and #6 Boise State nipped #2 Texas, this season we have played eight games just to see #1 and #2 play for it all in Arizona in two weeks.

UPDATED TOURNAMENT RESULTS:

FIRST ROUND:

In Arlington, TX:

7 Oklahoma 48
10 Connecticut 20

In Charlotte:

8 Arkansas 22
9 Virginia Tech 12

BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Sugar:

1 Auburn 22
7 Oklahoma 16

Rose:

4 Stanford 37
5 Wisconsin 20

Fiesta:

2 Oregon 19
8 Arkansas 12

Orange:

3 Texas Christian 30
6 Ohio State 31

Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL:

1 Auburn 39
4 Stanford 17

2 Oregon 35
6 Ohio State 10

BCS Championship in Glendale AZ: (results posted here, exclusively(!), on January 29th)

1 Auburn
2 Oregon

A Quartet of Quarterbacks Sails into Saturday's St. Pete Semi-Finals

When Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg was given the opportunity years ago to host the 2011 college football semi-finals, certainly visions of Florida Gators, maybe even Florida State and Miami, and even further, South Florida and Central Florida, danced in their heads. Certainly a big SEC presence would be expected, because three of the past four years have featured two SEC teams in the semis. Instead, the 2010-2011 reality was that no Florida teams even made the post-season tournament, much less the semi-finals. Yes, Auburn will be there to represent the SEC, but this set of teams features two Pac-10 schools, so not exactly around the corner from Tampa Bay. And Pac-10 fans often don't even want to sojourn around the corner to attend a bowl game. However, the inclusion of Auburn and the always willing to caravan Ohio State Buckeyes will make sure all of the seats are accounted for at Tropicana Field.

This year's Football's Final Four also features:

A star-filled list of quarterbacks: To start off, a little award known as, the Heisman Trophy! Auburn's Cam Newton, winner of the Heisman, will be in the house. Also Stanford's Andrew Luck is the top quarterback NFL prospect in the country. Throw in Terrelle Pryor of Ohio State, one of the most highly recruited players of recent memory. Last but not least, there is Darron Thomas who drives Oregon's scoring machine. All of these quarterbacks playing on the same day in the same stadium, wow, it feels like a college football version of the Yalta Conference.

It's been five long years: During the season prior to the tournament expanding to ten teams, USC and Ohio State were in the 2005-2006 Semi-Finals. That is the last time a Big Ten or Pac-10 team was in the Semi-Finals. And to get there fie years ago, then fourth seed Ohio State won 27-14 over then fifth seed Oregon, their opponent this Saturday.

Sanctions, shmanctions: Maybe Cam Newton, Terrelle Pryor, and his inked Buckeye comrades can have some laughs about those annoying, pesky NCAA investigators and their probing questions. NCAA cleared everybody to play in the post-season, so we can all enjoy a suspension free tourney.

Sorry Texas Christian, Maybe My Tournament Should Run on Dunkel

My college tournament plays out the initial rounds by using a combination of how the teams (say A versus B and C versus D) performed in their bowl games, and then using computer ratings to determine how games would turn out if A played C and B played D, if that was how my tournament pairings were laid out. If I was lucky, I'd have some actual bowl games that corresponded to one of my pretend games, like Oklahoma versus Connecticut this year. One memorable real life bowl that also happened to be one of my tournament match-ups was #2 Texas losing to #7 Georgia in the 1984 Cotton Bowl. If I would have generated a result like that from my method, it probably would have seemed improbable. Another real life game that was one of my tournament games was Oklahoma and Boise State's Fiesta Bowl. Again, if I had come up with a Bronco win using my method, it probably would have seemed flawed.

As a Chicago native, I initially used the Dunkel Index, a computer ranking system that was available in the Chicago Tribune's Sports Section. Time went by, newspapers scaled back, and the Dunkel Ratings became harder to find. So I switched to USA Today's Sagarin Ratings for my tournament. These ratings are part of my "pre-specified" methods, so that no matter what happens with the games, all I have to do is plug numbers into a spreadsheet to get my results.

Anyway, in my tournament, the #3 versus #6 game was between TCU and Ohio State. TCU won by two over Wisconsin in real life, and Ohio State beat Arkansas by five. My methods plugged these results along with the Sagarin ratings to speculate that OSU would beat TCU by one if they had met on the field, and play they way they did in their bowls. The main reason TCU was down-graded was that Sagarin ranked one-loss Wisconsin as the 14th best team in the country, whereas Arkansas was in the top 10. TCU beating Wisconsin by only two left the door wide open for Ohio State in my tournament, although Arkansas had a chance in the last minute to win, which would have given the Horned Frogs a win versus the Buckeyes in my pretend world. And just from my perspective, I think early Sugar Bowl OSU was the most impressive team of those four in their bowl, and I think if the Buckeyes had lined up for the two-point conversion rather than the Badgers to tie TCU in the waning minutes of the Rose Bowl, I think the Bucks would have gotten the job done.

Just because I am a curious guy, I took a look at the Dunkel Index last week, which is now run by a third generation of Dunkels and published on-line. I immediately noticed that Dunkel had TCU #4 and Wisconsin #5 prior to the bowls, with OSU and Arkansas in the bottom five of the top ten. I didn't need to do the calculations, it was immediately apparent. If I had used Dunkel, TCU would have beaten OSU by four to five points.

Now, there were things I always liked about Dunkel. It seemed to allow the top team or teams to get a much higher rating than their peers than Sagarin seems to do. For instance, I bet the Auburn post-bowl Dunkel rating is much higher than their peers, whereas Sagarin has Auburn and Stanford only 0.01 apart. At this stage of the tournament, I use the computer ratings with a distribution based on how variable teams play based on the non-BCS bowl games. In short, my Auburn-Stanford semi-final is basically a coin flip. Based on Auburn pushing around Oregon's offensive line, I think that seems less plausible that Auburn and Stanford are basically even Steven. Or maybe Andrew Luck would provide more passing precision for Stanford than Oregon showed, and the Cardinal would have greater offensive success.

But the downside of Dunkel is what I referred to in the last paragraph, I have to speculate on the post-bowl ratings. Dunkel hasn't updated them yet, and I use the post bowl ratings for my semi-finals and championship game. Sagarin's were published soon after the last piece of confetti hit the University of Phoenix turf after the championship. So for this year, Sagarin is my system. Sorry TCU, you narrowly beat a team that Sagarin didn't love. In general, his scores don't love most of the Big Ten. Michigan State beat Wisconsin, and lost to only Iowa and Alabama, yet they finish the season as #31 in Sagarin's post-bowl standings.