Usually, trying to figure out the teams that will make my tournament is fruitless before Thanksgiving. With turkey on the verge of going from annoying to delicious, here is how the tournament shakes out so far.
LSU - The Tigers are at the pinnacle, win out and they are the number one seed of the tournament. Due to tournament rules that teams cannot have more than one game with home state advantage, LSU, even if they win the SEC, cannot play in the Sugar Bowl because the championship game is in New Orleans. So, most likely, an undefeated LSU will go to the Orange Bowl as the top seed. But Arkansas or the SEC East champ can ruin this dream. After all, where is the Les Miles who makes kooky decisions at crunch time? Two seasons ago, LSU had the inside track to the last at-large bid, but they blew it. I still see a good chance that when all is said and done, there will be absolutely no unbeaten teams prior to the bowls. But under any circumstances, LSU should be in the tourney, either as SEC champ or at-large.
Oklahoma State - Prior to the season, the predictions were that Oklahoma would win the Big XII, with Oklahoma State and Texas A & M as a toss-up for Big XII at-large. Well, for the first half of their head to head match-up, it seemed like A & M would emerge over OSU. But OSU stormed back in the second half and has not looked back, even surpassing Oklahoma, so far, with a Fiesta Bowl game in sight. The Cowboys seem like a shoe-in to make the tourney no matter what the outcome with the Sooners. Plus, if they stay number two seed, often it seems like getting the winner of the 7-10 first round game can provide what seems like a less challenging opponent that the 8-9 winner. Especially if 7-10 turns out to be a match-up like Houston versus the Big East champ.
Alabama - Right now, the Tide seems likely to be a top four team, with a Sugar Bowl awaiting. So do they want Arkansas to upend LSU so that the Tide could have a chance at an SEC championship and top two seed? Top two seed has its advantages, but also means adding an SEC championship game in Atlanta. Bama might be happy just letting LSU play the extra game. Unless in-state rival Auburn pulls an upset, Alabama seems a likely tourney lock.
Oregon - The Ducks, Ohio State, and TCU are the only teams that have been in the last two tournaments, and Oregon seems most likely to make it three in a row. They still have a game with USC, but the Rose Bowl is happy that a Pac-12 team is positioned to play in Pasadena, since the Big Ten champ appears likely to have to play in the First Round game.
Oklahoma - The Sooners still have a chance to propel into the top four and gain a Fiesta Bowl birth, but even with a loss, they may be a likely at-large team. Last season, with two losses, the Sooners were behind one-loss Stanford and ahead of one-loss Boise State in the final rankings, and if that happens again, that may be enough to make the tournament as an at-large team even with a loss.
Arkansas - The Razorbacks have a chance to return to the tournament after being the eight seed last season. If Arkansas can beat LSU, likely three SEC West teams make the tourney. But if the SEC East rep wins the SEC, all bets are off. If Arkansas loses to LSU, they would be hard pressed to stay in the tourney, since last season, two loss Arkansas was behind both one-loss Stanford and two-loss Oklahoma in the seedings, and if you throw in Bama as an at-large, three at-large teams would be all accounted for. A Houston loss could open a slot for the Hogs though.
Clemson - The tourney would love to see Clemson represent the ACC as a new face. But they may find the same fate at Georgia Tech two seasons ago. GTU was cruising toward a top six seeding, but took a beating during their non-conference finale with SEC Georgia. The Wreck bounced back to win the ACC, but found themselves in the First Round traveling to Cincinnati to play Ohio State. Maybe Clemson will do the same, winning the ACC but with a loss to South Carolina pushing them into a First Round game at Lambeau or Ford Field in Big Ten country.
Virginia Tech - Yeah, another appearance by the Hokies is not optimal, but a least they may get into the top six this time. If they survive the ACC battles, a Rose Bowl against Oregon may await the Hokies.
Stanford - Currently ninth in the rankings, finishing in the top seven will get teams into the tournament this season (unless the ACC champ also drops to the automatic qualifiers that are back of the pack). So Stanford is not a shoe-in, but if they win out and look impressive enough over Notre Dame, I think the Cardinal will be back for a repeat visit to the tournament. After all, they have to jump from 9th to 7th, but 3 teams ahead of them will lose (Okla-OSU, LSU-Ark, Clemson-VTU). But a fourth seed like last season, which propelled Stanford on a run to the final four, is unlikely. And if Stanford ends up the seventh seed with a trip to play the Big East champ, it will be interesting if they end up playing in Lucas Oil stadium to play Cincy or Louisville to give Colts fans a look at Andrew Luck.
Boise State - Yes, another season on the path to being a top four seed, and a late season lapse. They still have a shot, but it seems like the Broncos will be on the outside looking in again this season. Last season, one loss BSU was ranked behind one-loss Stanford, two loss Oklahoma, and two loss Arkansas, and if the same thing happens, there will be no room in the inn for Boise State. They have a chance, but it will be tough. But believe me, no one wants to play the Broncos. After beating Oklahoma and Ohio State five seasons ago in the tourney, and two seasons ago beating Cincinnati and Texas on the way to a championship game loss to Florida, BSU is scary.
Houston - The Cougars control their own destiny now that Boise State lost, but they certainly have a few obstacles in their path over the last three weeks. Although not an optimal tourney team, if they end up playing the Big Ten champ in San Antonio, tournament organizers will be happy. But if Houston moves to the 7th seed and plays the Big East champ, maybe in College Station to try to sell more tickets due to proximity to Houston, it will not be an optimal match-up.
Michigan State, Wisconsin - Although the BCS bowls love Big Ten teams and it seems like only one Big Ten team will make it, and at that play in a First Round game, even that can be interesting. If they can have the geographic advantage, having a First Round game in Green Bay or Detroit will generate some interest. And if they have to travel to San Antonio (vs Houston), Atlanta (vs Clemson), or Charlotte (vs Virginia Tech), they certainly will travel well. Yes, it is possible Penn State will emerge, but even before the scandal, that seemed unlikely.
Big East champ - Yes, they will be the 1oth seed, I guarantee it. Somebody will take this thing, won't they?
TCU, Southern Miss - It seemed like a third straight appearance for Horned Frogs seemed unlikely, but now, don't count out TCU. They are 19th, and if Houston falls, if they propel themselves to the top 16, TCU is in. As long as they can stay ahead of Southern Miss, who might leap frog the Horned Frogs with a quality win over Houston. If Houston falls, this could be interesting, and TCU or Southern Miss may find themselves as 9th seed traveling to Big Ten country.
Pac-12 South - No, I am not going to apologize for thinking the Legends and Leaders is a stupid idea just because the Pac-12 may send UCLA, Arizona State, or Utah to the championship game. Their problem is USC on probation, not geographic divisions. MSU and Wisconsin probably will make the Big Ten finale, and this would be the same if they had nice east-west divisions.
So here are the projections, as of now:
First Round:
Atlanta: #7 Clemson (ACC champ) versus #10 Cincinnati (Big East Champ)
San Antonio: #8 Houston (Conf USA champ, non-BCS conference AQ) versus #9 Michigan State (Big Ten champ)
Bowl Quarterfinals:
Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Houston/Michigan State winner
Rose: #4 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) versus #6 Arkansas (at-large)
Fiesta: #2 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus Clemson/Cincinnati winner
Sugar: #3 Alabama (at large) versus #5 Oklahoma (at large)
Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis
National Championship in New Orleans
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