Last weekend was supposed to be the calm before the college football storm. After all, every team with hopes of making my tournament was a double digit favorite, with the exception of two: Cincy favored over Rutgers (underdog won) and OSU over PSU (underdog won). We didn't know that lots of big underdogs would win also.
The impact started on Thursday night when one-loss Southern Miss, with dreams of beating Houston and making the tournament, lost to two-win UAB.
Then it continued Friday when Oklahoma State went down. At the time, that seemed like it would really knock the Cowboys down lots o' notches, but when the other bedlam occurred Saturday, OSU ended up back as fourth seed, and may move up to third with an Arkansas loss, with eyes still on the Fiesta Bowl.
The biggest impact of the OSU loss was the additive effect with the Oklahoma loss, which took the OSU/OU loser from their bedlam game, and turning them into a possibly below the bubble team from a solid at-large team.
All of the other losses brought Stanford back into controlling their own destiny for an at-large and giving Boise State some movement into at-large consideration. Boise State's biggest advantage is that no team is breathing down their necks, behind the Broncos are Houston, who are basically their own opponent for a berth in the tourney, the Sooners, who may lose again, and Oregon who is not competing for an at-large, yet. Kansas State and South Carolina still have at-large hopes, but Boise seems to be in a better position.
The Rose Bowl was most unhappy with the results, which now look to put the Pac-12/Big Ten winners into the First Round, perhaps against one another. If Stanford ends up matched up against ACC champ VTU in the Orange Bowl, the Rose Bowl may be hard pressed to find a match-up with Pac-12/Big Ten ties.
Another surprise was that with all of these crazy results, TCU went from 19th to 20th, no benefit at all. They are looking like they may not be in position to replace Houston if the Cougars go down as the non-AQ conference AQ.
So right now, the at-large teams for either three or four spots (if Houston loses)
1) Alabama
2) LSU/Arkansas loser
3) Stanford
4) Boise State
If Georgia wins the SEC championship game, would the three at-large teams be all SEC West schools? Only time will tell if such scenarios, or ones we cannot even fathom (like Arizona State making the tourney) play out.
So here are the projections, as of now:
First Round:
San Antonio: #7 Houston (Conf USA champ, non-BCS conference AQ) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)
Seattle: #8 Oregon (Pac-12 champ) versus #9 Michigan State (Big Ten champ)
Bowl Quarterfinals:
Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Michigan State or Houston/West Virginia winner
Fiesta: #4 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus #5 Virginia Tech (ACC Champ)
Sugar: #2 Alabama (at large) versus Oregon or Houston/West Virginia winner
Rose: #3 Arkansas (at-large) versus #6 Stanford (at large)
Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis
National Championship in New Orleans
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