(actually, Stewart and Bruce makes picks for the real bowl games here and here, and I annually transform them into predictions for my playoffs; i.e., if the games turn out like they say, this is how my tournament will play out, for the First Round and BCS Bowl Quarterfinals, at least)
As part of Stewart Mandel's and Bruce Feldman's predictions of all of the bowl games this season, here are his predictions for the tournament's first round and quarterfinals. Over the last four seasons, Stewey (can I call ya Stewey?) has been 19-5 in these games.
When real life expanded to a four team playoff, I like having more real game information for my simulated tournament, but kind of dreaded the idea that my Final Four would be their final four, my championship the same as their championship. But I figured there could be crazy years when anything could happen. And I could end up with the same Final Four, but if there is ever a year where my tourney can go a very different direction, it is this one. A very vulnerable #2 seed, potenentially good #5 and #6 seeds, and dangerous #7 and #9 seeds. I really only count out Boise State and to a lesser degree Michigan State at winning it all. We shall see! Let the games begin!
First Round - Salt Lake City: #7 Mississippi State versus #10 Boise State
On the surface, it would seem as if the Bulldogs were given quite a challenge. Go out to Utah to play always dangerous Boise State, then if they win, play Florida State in Miami. Inconvenient, yes; but actually this MSU has quite a nice path to the Football's Final Four. For one thing, this is not your older brother's Boise State, that beat Oklahoma and Ohio State in 2006, or Cincinnati and Texas on the was to the championship game in 2009, or that lost a four overtime thriller to West Virginia in Pittsburgh in 2011. Mississippi State may be cold in Salt Lake, but there three hours of being chilled will leave them with a trip to Miami and Florida State, the most vulnerable top two seed I can remember since BYU in 1985.
Stewart Mandel's pick: Mississippi State 47, Boise State 24
Bruce Feldman's pick: Mississippi State 45, Boise State 27
My pick: Mississippi State
First Round - Detroit: #8 Michigan State versus #9 Mississippi
Despite an impressive win last year to break Stanford's three year Rose Bowl win streak after not being in the tournament for about a generation, no one is talking about Michigan State this season. Because although they get a boost playing Ole Miss in Detroit, even winning would send them to play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, not as promising as playing Florida State. Bama generally takes care of business in the tournament, so Michigan State seems at best a one (win) and done. Even the Rebels get more respect, as the first tournament team in history to be an at-large with three losses. Why? Because they are 3-0 against other tournament teams (Bama, Miss State, Boise), and could even give the Tide a bit nervous. And possibly Mississippi can avoid Alabama if Boise State were to pull off a shocker. The tournament wants a Michigan State win so no Alabama-Mississippi Sugar Bowl, but they won't be that lucky.
Stewart Mandel's pick: Michigan State 29, Mississippi 27
Bruce Feldman's pick: Michigan State 19, Mississippi 17
My pick: Mississippi
Sugar Bowl: #1 Alabama versus Michigan State or Mississippi (Possibly Boise State)
Alabama may not have chalked up a lot of titles, but over their last four tournament appearances, they are 7-3. And that is against the best college football has to offer. Compare to Stanford's recent four year run (5-4) and Oregon's (4-4), and you appreciate the Tide's success. They clean up at the Sugar Bowl, and should once again.
Stewart Mandel's pick: Alabama 31, Michigan State 19
Bruce Feldman's pick: Alabama 37, Michigan State 26
My pick: Alabama over Mississippi
Rose Bowl: #4 Ohio State versus #5 Texas Christian
Back in 2010-2011 during the Tressel era, the #6 Buckeyes beat the #3 Horned Frogs and Andy Dalton in a 31-30 thriller. Four years later, it is time for payback. Both teams are dangerous, and this could be a dandy unless Cardale Jones falters in his second big game. TCU wants their first tourney win, especially since the championship game in 20 miles from campus. It can go either way, but it seems like TCU's turn.
Stewart Mandel's pick: Texas Christian 25, Ohio State 20
Bruce Feldman's pick: Texas Christian 33, Ohio State 27
My pick: Texas Christian
Orange Bowl: #2 Florida State versus Mississippi State (possibly Mississippi or Boise State)
Teams love being on this side of the bracket because no Alabama over here and a very vulnerable second seeded Seminoles. Stewart and Bruce like FSU more than I do.
Stewart Mandel's pick: Mississippi State over Florida State in 3 OTs
Bruce Feldman's pick: Florida State over Mississippi State in 1 OT
My pick: Mississippi State
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Oregon versus #6 Baylor
Baylor's offense is scary but last season as sixth seed, they had a bit of flop sweat losing to Alabama in the Fiesta in an ugly game, when their idea of pass defense was holding receivers and getting penalties rather than possible completed passes. But Baylor remains dangerous, especially against a Duck team with a history of its own flop sweat. I just think Oregon will be too explosive and be able to answer any Bears run.
Stewart Mandel's pick: Oregon over Baylor in 1 OT
Bruce Feldman's pick: Baylor 37, Oregon 35
My pick: Oregon
SEMI-FINALS:
Stewart Mandel: Alabama vs TCU; Mississippi State vs Oregon
Bruce Feldman: Alabama vs TCU; Florida State vs Baylor
My picks: TCU over Alabama; Oregon over Mississippi State (TCU over Oregon in the championship)
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Sunday, December 7, 2014
Quick, the 2015 College Football Tournament Selection Show is on!
And now live from the ESPN studios, it's the BCS College Football Tournament Selection Show presented by Wise Guys Pizza, with Rece Davis, Lou Holtz, and Mark May.
RECE: Well, the regular season is over and now the fun part begins. Soon, we will learn the ten teams that will be part of the 2014-2015 College Football Tournament. The big surprise over the past two days was, that there were no big surprises. The higher ranked teams all won, even when they were underdogs, as in the case of Ohio State. So the big question is who will get the at-large bids and the Group of Five bid.
So here is what we know, five teams are in, Oregon, Alabama, Baylor, Florida State, and Ohio State. The top ranked Group of Five champion in the BCS top 25 will get an automatic bid, and we expect that to be Boise State. So, who will be the four at-large teams among contenders such as one-loss TCU, two loss Michigan State and Mississippi State, and three loss teams Mississippi, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Arizona, Missouri. Probably not Wisconsin or Georgia.
MARK: Yes, TCU is definite, the two MSU's will likely be in it. And going with a three loss at-large team is unprecedented in this tournament. The closest the tournament ever came to a three loss at-large bid before was way back when Doug Flutie's miracle pass put Boston College in the tournament and knocked out the Miami Hurricanes by giving them a fourth loss.
LOU: That's right Mark, there are two MSU's. Golly that's going to make it easy to pick, I will just say MSU and people won't be sure who I mean, that's funny. Guys, I really like Georgia Tech for that last spot. They went into the ACC Championship with two losses, gave Florida State the only close game of the entire gosh darn weekend, and golly, that option offense would give defensive coordinators fits. Also, don't forget Arizona. They split with Oregon, and were the highest ranked of all of these three loss teams going into the weekend. It seems fair to have two Pac-12 teams in the tournament. So here is what we know, five teams are in, Oregon, Alabama, Baylor, Florida State, and Ohio State. The top ranked Group of Five champion in the BCS top 25 will get an automatic bid, and we expect that to be Boise State. So, who will be the four at-large teams among contenders such as one-loss TCU, two loss Michigan State and Mississippi State, and three loss teams Mississippi, Georgia Tech, Kansas State, Arizona, Missouri. Probably not Wisconsin or Georgia.
MARK: Yes, TCU is definite, the two MSU's will likely be in it. And going with a three loss at-large team is unprecedented in this tournament. The closest the tournament ever came to a three loss at-large bid before was way back when Doug Flutie's miracle pass put Boston College in the tournament and knocked out the Miami Hurricanes by giving them a fourth loss.
MARK: Coach, it will not be Arizona, they were shredded by Oregon and likely Heisman winner Marcus Mariota. Oregon will have to carry the banner of the Pac-12, and they will do a masterful job. And yes, Georgia Tech would keep some coaching staffs up nights studying their offense. But it is going to be Mississippi in that last spot. They are coming off a strong victory in the Egg Bowl, and gave Alabama their only loss. If there is a dark horse, I say Kansas State. They lost to TCU, Baylor, and Auburn, and selecting the Wildcats would make it a very good day for the Big XII.
RECE: So guys, who do you see as the top two seeds in a very strong top six of five one loss teams and undefeated Florida State?
LOU: Well, Alabama and Florida State for sure. The undefeated, defending national champion has to be at the top, and Alabama, well, they won the toughest division and the toughest conference.
MARK: Coach, I agree with you, but Oregon may be just as deserving to be in the top two, not because Alabama should not be, but Florida State just seems to struggle week to week. The ACC Championship game was their chance to show the country they could dominate, and yet they could not. RECE: And throughout the season, we have had our share of contenders for the spot for the top ranked Group of Five team. During the season, for a while it looked like East Carolina, and then Marshall, but guys, now it has to Boise State, right?
MARK: Yes, Boise State will return to the tournament as tenth seed. And if they had not won last night against Fresno State, I do not think another Group of Five team would have made the Top 25, so another at-large spot would have opened up.
LOU: Rece, remember, as an automatic qualifier, Boise State will have the "regional advantage" in the First Round. So some team like Michigan State, Mississippi State, those two MSU's, or Georgia Tech, will have to head west, maybe play in the mountains, at high altitude. That is what I love about the tournament, the First Round games really take the tournament all over this great country, and play in real football weather. Gosh, I just can't wait to find out who will play who in this tournament.
LOU: Rece, remember, as an automatic qualifier, Boise State will have the "regional advantage" in the First Round. So some team like Michigan State, Mississippi State, those two MSU's, or Georgia Tech, will have to head west, maybe play in the mountains, at high altitude. That is what I love about the tournament, the First Round games really take the tournament all over this great country, and play in real football weather. Gosh, I just can't wait to find out who will play who in this tournament.
RECE: Well, Coach, time for us the find out the brackets for this year's 2014-2015 BCS college football tournament, so we go to Brent Musburger at AT&T Stadium. Brent, take it away...
BRENT: You are looking...LIVE at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas, and the site of this season's championship game. Hi there everybody, ten teams will play to win here, and take home the BCS championship trophy. And now, it is time for the Dean's TruMoo Chocolate Milk bracket presentation. Let's go to tournament Commissioner Nelson, who will reveal this year's tournament. Commissioner..."
COMMISIONER: Thank you Brent. It is my yearly pleasure to announce the teams that will be playing in the 2013-2014 BCS College Football Tournament.
In the First Round, in Salt Lake City, the seventh seed, the Bulldogs of the Mississippi State University, an SEC at-large, will play the tenth seeded Boise State University Broncos, champions of the Mountain West.
The other First Round game will be played in Detroit, where the eighth seed and at-large representative of the Big Ten Conference, the Spartans of Michigan State University, will take on the ninth seed, and at-large team from the Southeastern Conference, the University of Mississippi Rebels.
In the First Round, in Salt Lake City, the seventh seed, the Bulldogs of the Mississippi State University, an SEC at-large, will play the tenth seeded Boise State University Broncos, champions of the Mountain West.
The other First Round game will be played in Detroit, where the eighth seed and at-large representative of the Big Ten Conference, the Spartans of Michigan State University, will take on the ninth seed, and at-large team from the Southeastern Conference, the University of Mississippi Rebels.
So let's move onto the BCS Bowl quarterfinals. Either Michigan State, Boise State, or Mississippi will move on to the Sugar Bowl, to play the top seed, the Crimson Tide of the University of Alabama, champion of the Southeastern Conference.
The winner of the Sugar Bowl, will take on the winner of the Rose Bowl, which will feature the fourth seed, champion of the Big Ten conference, the Buckeyes of the Ohio State University, and fifth seeded at-large from the Big XII Conference, the Horned Frogs of Texas Christian University.
Either Mississippi State, Mississippi, or Boise State will move on to the Orange Bowl, to play the number two seed, and champion of the Atlantic Coast Conference, the defending champion Seminoles of Florida State University.
The Orange Bowl winner will take on the winner of the remaining quarterfinal game, the Fiesta Bowl, which will feature the third seed, champion of the Pac-12 Conference, the University of Oregon Ducks, who will play the sixth seed, champion of the Big XII conference, the Bears of Baylor University.
The winners of the BCS quarterfinals will meet in Atlanta for Football's Final Four, and the winner of the semi-finals will play for the BCS championship, right here, in Arlington, Texas.
BRENT: Thank you Commissioner, it shapes up to be yet another exciting tournament. Two questions. What was the bubble team that was closest to make the field, and secondly, there is a provision to avoid rematches between teams that played during the season, yet it is possible Alabama will face Mississippi State in the Sugar Bowl. How did that occur?
COMMISH: First, Arizona was the tenth team in our standings, but particularly because of their computer rankings, were far behind Mississippi for the last at-large slot. We do avoid regular season rematches during the First Round and Quarterfinal Bowls, and we could have held out Baylor to possibly play Alabama if need be. However, we felt Baylor deserved top six consideration to not play a top two seed, so we decided to allow an Alabama-Mississippi game if both teams from the Magnolia State win.
BRENT: Thank you Commissioner, and now back to Rece at the studio.
(microphones pick up unsuspecting continuing conversation)
BRENT: Good job Commissioner. You did fine.
COMMISH: I hope I looked okay, I forgot to clean my glasses and they are filthy.COMMISH: No Brent, you will always have a place on this show.
BRENT: Thank you Commissioner. The one good thing I thought might happen would be Jesse Palmer might introduce me to "The Bachelor" people, and I could have a spot interviewing the young ladies on that show. But Jesse keeps telling me he forgot their telephone number at home, every week.
RECE: So, there it is. Three SEC teams in. Arizona did not make the cut. And Mississppi State and Mississippi make their first tournaments, but they have to travel to Salt Lake City and Detroit, respectively. Coach, your thoughts?
LOU: Yes, I love it. The top two are Florida State and Alabama, a possible rematch of last season's championship. I think it is pretty wide open this year, the winner can come from anywhere.
MARK: I think it will be a great tournament. Your right coach, except for Boise State there is not really a team I am discarding as one that could emerge as national champion. But I think it will be tough for Ohio State, with a new quarterback, to string three wins together, especially with Alabama on their side of the bracket.
LOU: But anything is possible Mark!
RECE: So this is the ninth season of the ten-team era, and Alabama and Ohio State have been in the tournament, six, yes, six times over that period of time. Mississippi State and Ole Miss are first timers in the tournament, but five of the ten teams were in last season's tournament, plus Boise State, Texas Christian, and Oregon have been regulars.LOU: But anything is possible Mark!
MARK: This year, Stanford did not make the tournament, breaking their four year run. The current longest string is Alabama, now with four. And it shows how there is systematic turnover over time, maybe not yearly, to think of when Alabama's four year run started. The other teams in that tournament included LSU, Oklahoma State, Stanford, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Arkansas, and Clemson. So maybe, we don't see year to year turnover, but teams go through some periods of rising to the top. All those team I mentioned can vouch for the fact that it is hard to get back there.
LOU: Plus, Mark, you discard Boise State, but there is a pretty good chance their First Round game will be a thriller. Boise's other two First Round games were their thrilling win over Oklahoma in 2006, and their four overtime loss to West Virginia in Pittsburgh in 2011. So I am looking forward to those MSU Bulldogs playing in Salt Lake City, it's gonna be a heck of a ball game. Plus, like Mark said, if someone wants me to make a pick, I will just say, look out for MSU, because there are two of them. Ha!
RECE: It will be a great set of games, we are so lucky we do not have to have a two team or four team tournament. A true champion will earn it on the field. So let's review the tournament...
First Round:
Salt Lake City: #7 Mississippi State (at-large) versus #10 Boise State (Mountain West Champ)
Salt Lake City: #7 Mississippi State (at-large) versus #10 Boise State (Mountain West Champ)
Detroit: #8 Michigan State (at-large) versus #9 Mississippi (at-large)
Rose: #4 Ohio State (Big Ten Champ) versus #5 Texas Christian (at-large)
Orange: #2 Florida State (ACC Champ) versus Mississippi State, Michigan State, or Boise State
Fiesta: #3 Oregon (Pac-12) versus #6 Baylor (Big XII Champ)
Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in Atlanta
National Championship in Arlington, Texas
RECE: It should be a great great tournament. For the Hall of Famer, Lou Holtz, and Mark May, good night from the ESPN studios
Saturday, December 6, 2014
Oregon's in! Saturday of college football drama will fill in the rest!
Yes, the final day of the college football regular season is here (well, to be fair, there is Army-Navy) and the pieces of the puzzle will begin to fall into the ten team tournament. Fifteen teams start the day with a chance, and it will soon be down to ten.
So there are the guaranteed slots are:
-Oregon
-Alabama-Missouri winner
-Florida State-Georgia Tech winner
-Ohio State-Wisconsin winner
-Baylor, Texas Christian, or Kansas State
-Boise State if they win the Mountain West
And then there will be the four teams awaiting on the bubble for an at-large slot:
Michigan State
Mississippi State
Mississippi
Any team above that loses (except Boise State)
Let's see what happens!
So there are the guaranteed slots are:
-Oregon
-Alabama-Missouri winner
-Florida State-Georgia Tech winner
-Ohio State-Wisconsin winner
-Baylor, Texas Christian, or Kansas State
-Boise State if they win the Mountain West
And then there will be the four teams awaiting on the bubble for an at-large slot:
Michigan State
Mississippi State
Mississippi
Any team above that loses (except Boise State)
Let's see what happens!
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
All Magnolia State at the top of the BCS Standings; Marshall begins hunt of East Carolina for Group of Five slot
Last Saturday's 3:30 Eastern games had to be some of the most intriguing in a while. The Baylor, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, and even Michigan State wins kept remote controls in a constant state of channel surfing throughout.
Now, we could use a little more shake up of all these SEC West teams, but they eventually will help us out as the season moves along. But for now, in only their second week on the tournament projections, Mississippi and their in-state peers Mississippi "I can't believe that 'more cowbell' sketch has that much staying power" State have meteorically risen to the top.
At the bottom of the standings, Marshall begins their all out pursuit of East Carolina. The Herd achieved 0.18 points from the six computers (or 0.06 of their score), whereas the Pirates have a big computer goose egg, so Marshall hopes to "amp" up the algorithms to catch ECU for the Group of Five slot in the tourney.
Next week, Irish and Noles are certain to shake things up again!
BCS STANDINGS
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Heidi Klum's brother Michael
IN- Oregon; OUT-Arizona
Projected tournament as of now!
FIRST ROUND:
In Detroit:
7 Alabama
9 Michigan State
In Seattle:
8 Oregon
10 East Carolina
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Rose:
1 Mississippi State
Oregon/East Carolina winner
Sugar:
4 Baylor
5 Notre Dame
Fiesta:
2 Mississippi
Alabama/Michigan State winner
Orange:
3 Florida State
6 Auburn
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
Now, we could use a little more shake up of all these SEC West teams, but they eventually will help us out as the season moves along. But for now, in only their second week on the tournament projections, Mississippi and their in-state peers Mississippi "I can't believe that 'more cowbell' sketch has that much staying power" State have meteorically risen to the top.
At the bottom of the standings, Marshall begins their all out pursuit of East Carolina. The Herd achieved 0.18 points from the six computers (or 0.06 of their score), whereas the Pirates have a big computer goose egg, so Marshall hopes to "amp" up the algorithms to catch ECU for the Group of Five slot in the tourney.
Next week, Irish and Noles are certain to shake things up again!
BCS STANDINGS
| 1 | Mississippi State | 0.9693 |
| 2 | Mississippi | 0.9495 |
| 3 | Florida State | 0.9413 |
| 4 | Baylor | 0.8720 |
| 5 | Notre Dame | 0.8041 |
| 6 | Auburn | 0.7798 |
| 7 | Alabama | 0.7384 |
| 8 | Oregon | 0.6774 |
| 9 | Michigan State | 0.6450 |
| 10 | Oklahoma | 0.6406 |
| 11 | Georgia | 0.6358 |
| 12 | TCU | 0.5643 |
| 13 | Kansas State | 0.3785 |
| 14 | Ohio State | 0.3458 |
| 15 | Arizona | 0.3324 |
| 16 | Oklahoma State | 0.3056 |
| 17 | Texas A&M | 0.2865 |
| 18 | Arizona State | 0.2566 |
| 19 | Nebraska | 0.2325 |
| 20 | East Carolina | 0.2112 |
| 21 | Stanford | 0.2069 |
| 22 | USC | 0.1709 |
| 23 | Clemson | 0.1476 |
| 24 | Marshall | 0.1258 |
| 25 | Utah | 0.1191 |
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Heidi Klum's brother Michael
IN- Oregon; OUT-Arizona
Projected tournament as of now!
FIRST ROUND:
In Detroit:
7 Alabama
9 Michigan State
In Seattle:
8 Oregon
10 East Carolina
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Rose:
1 Mississippi State
Oregon/East Carolina winner
Sugar:
4 Baylor
5 Notre Dame
Fiesta:
2 Mississippi
Alabama/Michigan State winner
Orange:
3 Florida State
6 Auburn
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
Thursday, October 9, 2014
Shake it up! Now that's a college football weekend!
It was all too easy. Florida State, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Oregon were all going to cruise through to the post-season creating a beautiful top four. But college football never ever is so cooperative.
So, this week's BCS Standings thrusts Auburn to the top, but the key thing is that the top eight teams will all play one of their top ranked peers, so things will sort themselves out. But it will take some time! So there will be some fun in the mean time!
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Todd Gurley
IN- Arizona, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Notre Dame; OUT-UCLA, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas A&M
Projected tournament!
FIRST ROUND:
In Charlotte:
7 Alabama
10 East Carolina
In Detroit:
8 Michigan State
9 Arizona
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Rose:
1 Auburn
Michigan State/Arizona winner
Sugar:
4 Mississippi State
5 Baylor
Orange:
2 Florida State
Alabama/East Carolina winner
Fiesta:
3 Mississipi
6 Notre Dame
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
So, this week's BCS Standings thrusts Auburn to the top, but the key thing is that the top eight teams will all play one of their top ranked peers, so things will sort themselves out. But it will take some time! So there will be some fun in the mean time!
| Auburn | 0.9737 |
| Florida State | 0.9570 |
| Ole Miss | 0.8792 |
| Mississippi State | 0.8537 |
| Baylor | 0.8194 |
| Notre Dame | 0.7776 |
| Alabama | 0.7017 |
| TCU | 0.6100 |
| Michigan State | 0.6035 |
| Arizona | 0.5871 |
| Oregon | 0.5867 |
| Oklahoma | 0.5839 |
| Texas A&M | 0.5334 |
| Georgia | 0.4961 |
| UCLA | 0.3945 |
| Ohio State | 0.3030 |
| Kansas State | 0.2919 |
| Oklahoma State | 0.2918 |
| Georgia Tech | 0.2247 |
| Arizona State | 0.2029 |
| Nebraska | 0.1833 |
| East Carolina | 0.1750 |
| Missouri | 0.1336 |
| Stanford | 0.1211 |
| Florida | 0.0700 |
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Todd Gurley
IN- Arizona, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Notre Dame; OUT-UCLA, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas A&M
Projected tournament!
FIRST ROUND:
In Charlotte:
7 Alabama
10 East Carolina
In Detroit:
8 Michigan State
9 Arizona
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Rose:
1 Auburn
Michigan State/Arizona winner
Sugar:
4 Mississippi State
5 Baylor
Orange:
2 Florida State
Alabama/East Carolina winner
Fiesta:
3 Mississipi
6 Notre Dame
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
Monday, September 29, 2014
No real changes as lack of ranked team match-ups prevail
It was a Saturday without any games between two ranked teams, Not one, other than the Thursday UCLA-Arizona State match-up, all weekend. Florida State and Texas A&M looked vulnerable but prevailed. South Carolina lost, which probably didn't do much for the computation rankings of aspiring Group of Five rep East Carolina, a lower to the Gamecocks.
So no changes in the teams in the projected tourney, and a good weekend ahead: Stanford-ND, Bama-Ole Miss, LSU-Texas A&M, Nebraska-Michigan State, and Oklahoma-TCU. It might be fun in the old rankings next week.
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Charlie Weis
IN- nope; OUT-nothin'
Projected tournament!
FIRST ROUND:
In Raleigh:
7 UCLA
10 East Carolina
In Detroit:
8 Baylor
9 Michigan State
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 Florida State
Baylor/Michigan State winner
Sugar:
4 Oklahoma
5 Auburn
Fiesta:
2 Alabama
UCLA/East Carolina winner
Rose:
3 Oregon
6 Texas A&M
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
So no changes in the teams in the projected tourney, and a good weekend ahead: Stanford-ND, Bama-Ole Miss, LSU-Texas A&M, Nebraska-Michigan State, and Oklahoma-TCU. It might be fun in the old rankings next week.
| 1 | Florida State | 0.9370 |
| 2 | Alabama | 0.9236 |
| 3 | Oregon | 0.9126 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 0.8917 |
| 5 | Auburn | 0.8626 |
| 6 | Texas A&M | 0.8000 |
| 7 | UCLA | 0.7088 |
| 8 | Baylor | 0.7026 |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 0.6243 |
| 10 | Ole Miss | 0.5875 |
| 11 | Michigan State | 0.5528 |
| 12 | Mississippi State | 0.5185 |
| 13 | Georgia | 0.4634 |
| 14 | Stanford | 0.4298 |
| 15 | LSU | 0.4098 |
| 16 | BYU | 0.3484 |
| 17 | Nebraska | 0.3347 |
| 18 | USC | 0.2843 |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 0.2566 |
| 20 | Oklahoma State | 0.2211 |
| 21 | Ohio State | 0.1682 |
| 22 | Kansas State | 0.1557 |
| 23 | TCU | 0.1449 |
| 24 | Missouri | 0.1211 |
| 25 | East Carolina | 0.1075 |
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Charlie Weis
IN- nope; OUT-nothin'
Projected tournament!
FIRST ROUND:
In Raleigh:
7 UCLA
10 East Carolina
In Detroit:
8 Baylor
9 Michigan State
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 Florida State
Baylor/Michigan State winner
Sugar:
4 Oklahoma
5 Auburn
Fiesta:
2 Alabama
UCLA/East Carolina winner
Rose:
3 Oregon
6 Texas A&M
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
East Carolina cracks the Top 25 to represent Group of Five; Computers betray Notre Dame in favor of UCLA
Finally, a Group of Five entered the Top 25 to grab a spot in my projected tournament, as East Carolina rolled up 70 points on UNC. With Northern Illinois losing big and Cincinnati struggling past Miami (and the Ohio one at that), the Pirates look like a proven contender, with wins over Carolina and Virginia Tech, and hanging with South Carolina until at 10 point loss. Welcome yee buccaneers; argh!
Also, Notre Dame dropped out but there was a reason in my calculations of the computers. Last week, I used the ratings from the Wes Colley website, and UCLA nudged out Notre Dame. But then Colley's rankings in the USA Today computer report differed from the site, and I used those ranking, which put ND above the Bruins. I contacted Dr Colley and he kindly replied that he adapted his rankings early in the season for USA Today, but will revert to his system by week 5. Since his rankings on the site will become the "real thing" soon, I use those this week, and UCLA grabs the last spot.
And just as ND looks to threaten as an independent, BYU is up to #18, ten spots away from provisional qualification for independents. Based on their games such as the home win against Virginia, if the Cougars go undefeated, it will not be easy. But, it is interesting that BYU seemingly has outperformed UCLA against common opponents (UVA and Texas), yet UCLA gets a lot more love. It seems that Neuheisel's performance to beat Texas as backup QB has been more impactful than BYU dominating Texas in Austin.
Speaking of backups, I certainly has mixed feelings during Florida State-Clemson. On one hand, I did not want backup QB Sean Maguire, thrust into one of the games of the season, to take the brunt of not winning such a key game. However, Jameis "Unnecessarily needed I" Winston sidelines circus was a good reason for him to blow the Seminoles chance with his table top antics. But the synergy lead to an amazing, memorable game.
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Jameis Winston
IN- UCLA, East Carolina; OUT-LSU, Notre Dame
Projected tournament!
FIRST ROUND:
In Raleigh:
7 Baylor
10 East Carolina
In Detroit:
8 UCLA
9 Michigan State
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 Florida State
UCLA/Michigan State winner
Rose:
4 Auburn
5 Oregon
Fiesta:
2 Alabama
Baylor/East Carolina winner
Sugar:
3 Oklahoma
6 Texas A&M
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
Also, Notre Dame dropped out but there was a reason in my calculations of the computers. Last week, I used the ratings from the Wes Colley website, and UCLA nudged out Notre Dame. But then Colley's rankings in the USA Today computer report differed from the site, and I used those ranking, which put ND above the Bruins. I contacted Dr Colley and he kindly replied that he adapted his rankings early in the season for USA Today, but will revert to his system by week 5. Since his rankings on the site will become the "real thing" soon, I use those this week, and UCLA grabs the last spot.
And just as ND looks to threaten as an independent, BYU is up to #18, ten spots away from provisional qualification for independents. Based on their games such as the home win against Virginia, if the Cougars go undefeated, it will not be easy. But, it is interesting that BYU seemingly has outperformed UCLA against common opponents (UVA and Texas), yet UCLA gets a lot more love. It seems that Neuheisel's performance to beat Texas as backup QB has been more impactful than BYU dominating Texas in Austin.
Speaking of backups, I certainly has mixed feelings during Florida State-Clemson. On one hand, I did not want backup QB Sean Maguire, thrust into one of the games of the season, to take the brunt of not winning such a key game. However, Jameis "Unnecessarily needed I" Winston sidelines circus was a good reason for him to blow the Seminoles chance with his table top antics. But the synergy lead to an amazing, memorable game.
| 1 | Florida State | 0.9566 |
| 2 | Alabama | 0.9279 |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 0.9071 |
| 4 | Auburn | 0.8715 |
| 5 | Oregon | 0.8662 |
| 6 | Texas A&M | 0.8023 |
| 7 | Baylor | 0.6971 |
| 8 | UCLA | 0.6124 |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 0.5769 |
| 10 | Ole Miss | 0.5635 |
| 11 | Michigan State | 0.5234 |
| 12 | South Carolina | 0.4742 |
| 13 | Mississippi State | 0.4516 |
| 14 | Arizona State | 0.4374 |
| 15 | Georgia | 0.4238 |
| 16 | Stanford | 0.3866 |
| 17 | LSU | 0.3285 |
| 18 | BYU | 0.2722 |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 0.2605 |
| 20 | Nebraska | 0.2167 |
| 21 | USC | 0.1773 |
| 22 | Oklahoma State | 0.1360 |
| 23 | Ohio State | 0.1311 |
| 24 | Kansas State | 0.1011 |
| 25 | East Carolina | 0.0729 |
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Jameis Winston
IN- UCLA, East Carolina; OUT-LSU, Notre Dame
Projected tournament!
FIRST ROUND:
In Raleigh:
7 Baylor
10 East Carolina
In Detroit:
8 UCLA
9 Michigan State
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 Florida State
UCLA/Michigan State winner
Rose:
4 Auburn
5 Oregon
Fiesta:
2 Alabama
Baylor/East Carolina winner
Sugar:
3 Oklahoma
6 Texas A&M
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
Notre Dame and Baylor are moving on up; BCS Standings Week 3
I think the one big difference between my tournament and the current system is there would be more focus on the "Group of Five" teams and their race to claim one of my tourney slots. After all, this is the time of year that the Group of Five schools pollinate with match-ups against the Power Six. I am happy to see one site dedicated to the Group of Five battle for supremacy , because most pundits only care to write about their chances to make the four team playoff.
But as much as there is talk about schedule inequities among the Power Six, it may be more relevant among the Group of Five. There is Marshall and the possibility of a cake walk to undefeatedness, then there is East Carolina, with a win over home team Virginia Tech and a 10 point, but they hung around loss at South Carolina. Central Florida goes overseas to lose to Penn State and to Mizzou for loss number two. Cincinnati visits Ohio State in a couple weeks, and Northern Illinois, already a winner at Northwestern, going to Arkansas this week. Who can compare the merits of such schedules to determine who should get the Big Six bowl bid (or the bid or bids in my tourney for that matter)?
It seems like to increase the chance of the big New Year's bowl payday, there will be incentive for teams to "pull a Marshall" and not take on any of the Power schools.
I think for all of the Power Five and Group of Five schools, there may be a time to add a little fairness, and drama, to these non-conferences match-ups. After all, how can it be fair at all that teams basically decide their own schedule in the real life system which requires subjective assessment of team merit? How about teams are allowed to create 10-game schedules, and then the remaining two games are decided in an NBA type lottery ball TV special to decide the last two opponents. Power Five schools would get one ball from the lottery with the name of an out of conference Power Five opponent, and a second with one of the Group of Five schools. Same with the Group of Five. A little drama, a little fun, and a little accountability.
Of the teams to watch, I say NIU's game at Arkansas might be very interesting this week, and Cincinnati's game at OSU will be an interesting QB contrast. Of course, we have to keep an eye on whether Marshall can keep moving along.
Of course, BYU is in the undefeated mix as well, with foes like Central Florida and Utah State as their biggest hurdles. An undefeated BYU will put a little pressure on the Playoff committee, but Cougars, you are welcome to my tourney, with an provisional qualification with a top eight finish. With ND and BYU both perhaps having good seasons, maybe I should rethink "independents in the Top 8" making it, and make the rule "the highest ranked independent in the Top 8." Either way, I would love to see both teams back in my tourney this season.
One team to watch this year and future years is UTSA aka Texas-San Antonio. They went into pre-season Group of Five "darling to watch" Houston's grand opening of their new digs, and blew out the Cougars. Then they lost by six at home to Arizona, before a big loss to Oklahoma State. But national champion coach Larry Coker's program is one to watch for the future, and will there be talk someday that they have surpassed the Longhorns at some point?
One thing I noticed during the Northwestern-Northern Illinois game occurred late in the game. NIU was drubbing the B1G Ten hosts, but the Wildcats completed a long TD pass late in the game to at least give NU a mathematical chance. The QB ran down the field with two index fingers raised, as in "number one!" Dude, you are getting beaten by Northern Illinois, you are likely to lose at home, yet, you are number one. I have seen this gut reflex of other players and fans in response to one good play in a sea of mis-steps. I think Andy Warhol was wrong, not fifteen minutes of fame. We are pursuing fifteen seconds of being noticed, whether for a meaningless QB sack or a viral video of a cute kitty.
Another thing I noticed during the Illinois-Western Kentucky game. My vote for the day's most meaningless graphic during a college football broadcast, "WKU's first fumble recovery for TD since 2012." Well, that wasn't that long ago, I do not expect fumble returns for TD to occur regularly.
USC wins at Stanford, works their way up the rankings and into my projected tourney last week, yet still are a program ensconced in goofiness. First Pat Haden runs down to the field. That was bad enough, but when the coach takes time from a crucial game to have Haden texted, that is even worse. Then SC goes to Boston College and loses. Quite a little operation there.
I was impressed with Stanford's defense generally, and if they can settle on a halfback, the Cardinal might not be half bad.
I have also been impressed with Notre Dame QB Everett Golson, after a year off. Sometimes, he does not make the best move under the pressure of a rush, but he also does not do something really bad either.
And what is the big deal with the breaking of the Michigan-ND "rivalry"? They have had breaks in the "rivalry" of 34 and 33 years, so more than 67 years of no Wolverine-Irish contests, yet the planets persist. Hey Michigan, you can hang out in South Bend in 2047 or '48.
After North Dakota State goes to Iowa State and pounds them in Ames, one wonders how close NDSU is getting to merit talk that they are better than the Group of Five's best. The computers already love them.
I saw that the McNeese State players, rather than their last name, all have "McNeese" plastered on their jersey backs. Given my confusion when I saw the ushers at Chicago sporting events all with the name "Andy Frain" on their hats, certainly I would have thought McNeese were all kinfolk if I was a youngster.
I saw the B1G Ten TV commercial advertising deposits for tickets for the confernece championship game "if your team makes it." That is a brilliant way to pile up a bunch of deposit interest until December, and help ticket sales. Fictionally, I am doing the same for the Semi-Finals in Atlanta and the BCS Championship in Arlington. I bet the real life championship game will start the same deal, with the quick turnaround and potential long distance travel for fans dealing with a New Year's bowl game also.
This week, things are really tight in the BCS Standings. Alabama, Oregon, and Oklahoma are all super tight, and being in top two is precious, as is Notre Dame - UCLA for the last at-large spot. Notre Dame had quite a lead in the polls, but the Bruins get quite a bit of computer love.
BCS Standings - Week 3
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Adrian Peterson
IN- Baylor, Notre Dame; OUT-USC, Georgia
Projected tournament!
FIRST ROUND:
In Detroit:
7 Louisiana State
10 Michigan State
In New Orleans:
8 Baylor
9 Notre Dame
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 Florida State
Baylor or LSU/Michigan State winner
Sugar:
4 Oklahoma
5 Auburn
Fiesta:
2 Alabama
Michigan State or Baylor/Notre Dame winner
Rose:
3 Oregon
6 Texas A&M
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
But as much as there is talk about schedule inequities among the Power Six, it may be more relevant among the Group of Five. There is Marshall and the possibility of a cake walk to undefeatedness, then there is East Carolina, with a win over home team Virginia Tech and a 10 point, but they hung around loss at South Carolina. Central Florida goes overseas to lose to Penn State and to Mizzou for loss number two. Cincinnati visits Ohio State in a couple weeks, and Northern Illinois, already a winner at Northwestern, going to Arkansas this week. Who can compare the merits of such schedules to determine who should get the Big Six bowl bid (or the bid or bids in my tourney for that matter)?
It seems like to increase the chance of the big New Year's bowl payday, there will be incentive for teams to "pull a Marshall" and not take on any of the Power schools.
I think for all of the Power Five and Group of Five schools, there may be a time to add a little fairness, and drama, to these non-conferences match-ups. After all, how can it be fair at all that teams basically decide their own schedule in the real life system which requires subjective assessment of team merit? How about teams are allowed to create 10-game schedules, and then the remaining two games are decided in an NBA type lottery ball TV special to decide the last two opponents. Power Five schools would get one ball from the lottery with the name of an out of conference Power Five opponent, and a second with one of the Group of Five schools. Same with the Group of Five. A little drama, a little fun, and a little accountability.
Of the teams to watch, I say NIU's game at Arkansas might be very interesting this week, and Cincinnati's game at OSU will be an interesting QB contrast. Of course, we have to keep an eye on whether Marshall can keep moving along.
Of course, BYU is in the undefeated mix as well, with foes like Central Florida and Utah State as their biggest hurdles. An undefeated BYU will put a little pressure on the Playoff committee, but Cougars, you are welcome to my tourney, with an provisional qualification with a top eight finish. With ND and BYU both perhaps having good seasons, maybe I should rethink "independents in the Top 8" making it, and make the rule "the highest ranked independent in the Top 8." Either way, I would love to see both teams back in my tourney this season.
One team to watch this year and future years is UTSA aka Texas-San Antonio. They went into pre-season Group of Five "darling to watch" Houston's grand opening of their new digs, and blew out the Cougars. Then they lost by six at home to Arizona, before a big loss to Oklahoma State. But national champion coach Larry Coker's program is one to watch for the future, and will there be talk someday that they have surpassed the Longhorns at some point?
One thing I noticed during the Northwestern-Northern Illinois game occurred late in the game. NIU was drubbing the B1G Ten hosts, but the Wildcats completed a long TD pass late in the game to at least give NU a mathematical chance. The QB ran down the field with two index fingers raised, as in "number one!" Dude, you are getting beaten by Northern Illinois, you are likely to lose at home, yet, you are number one. I have seen this gut reflex of other players and fans in response to one good play in a sea of mis-steps. I think Andy Warhol was wrong, not fifteen minutes of fame. We are pursuing fifteen seconds of being noticed, whether for a meaningless QB sack or a viral video of a cute kitty.
Another thing I noticed during the Illinois-Western Kentucky game. My vote for the day's most meaningless graphic during a college football broadcast, "WKU's first fumble recovery for TD since 2012." Well, that wasn't that long ago, I do not expect fumble returns for TD to occur regularly.
USC wins at Stanford, works their way up the rankings and into my projected tourney last week, yet still are a program ensconced in goofiness. First Pat Haden runs down to the field. That was bad enough, but when the coach takes time from a crucial game to have Haden texted, that is even worse. Then SC goes to Boston College and loses. Quite a little operation there.
I was impressed with Stanford's defense generally, and if they can settle on a halfback, the Cardinal might not be half bad.
I have also been impressed with Notre Dame QB Everett Golson, after a year off. Sometimes, he does not make the best move under the pressure of a rush, but he also does not do something really bad either.
And what is the big deal with the breaking of the Michigan-ND "rivalry"? They have had breaks in the "rivalry" of 34 and 33 years, so more than 67 years of no Wolverine-Irish contests, yet the planets persist. Hey Michigan, you can hang out in South Bend in 2047 or '48.
After North Dakota State goes to Iowa State and pounds them in Ames, one wonders how close NDSU is getting to merit talk that they are better than the Group of Five's best. The computers already love them.
I saw that the McNeese State players, rather than their last name, all have "McNeese" plastered on their jersey backs. Given my confusion when I saw the ushers at Chicago sporting events all with the name "Andy Frain" on their hats, certainly I would have thought McNeese were all kinfolk if I was a youngster.
I saw the B1G Ten TV commercial advertising deposits for tickets for the confernece championship game "if your team makes it." That is a brilliant way to pile up a bunch of deposit interest until December, and help ticket sales. Fictionally, I am doing the same for the Semi-Finals in Atlanta and the BCS Championship in Arlington. I bet the real life championship game will start the same deal, with the quick turnaround and potential long distance travel for fans dealing with a New Year's bowl game also.
This week, things are really tight in the BCS Standings. Alabama, Oregon, and Oklahoma are all super tight, and being in top two is precious, as is Notre Dame - UCLA for the last at-large spot. Notre Dame had quite a lead in the polls, but the Bruins get quite a bit of computer love.
BCS Standings - Week 3
| 1 | Florida State | 0.9652 |
| 2 | Alabama | 0.9002 |
| 3 | Oregon | 0.8978 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 0.8916 |
| 5 | Auburn | 0.8639 |
| 6 | Texas A&M | 0.7989 |
| 7 | LSU | 0.7384 |
| 8 | Baylor | 0.6786 |
| 9 | Notre Dame | 0.5927 |
| 10 | UCLA | 0.5898 |
| 11 | Ole Miss | 0.5281 |
| 12 | Michigan State | 0.5056 |
| 13 | South Carolina | 0.4619 |
| 14 | Georgia | 0.4513 |
| 15 | Arizona State | 0.3867 |
| 16 | Stanford | 0.3404 |
| 17 | Missouri | 0.3248 |
| 18 | Kansas State | 0.2579 |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 0.2229 |
| 20 | USC | 0.2025 |
| 21 | BYU | 0.1699 |
| 21 | Clemson | 0.1394 |
| 23 | Ohio State | 0.1376 |
| 24 | Nebraska | 0.1359 |
| 25 | Oklahoma State | 0.0769 |
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Adrian Peterson
IN- Baylor, Notre Dame; OUT-USC, Georgia
Projected tournament!
FIRST ROUND:
In Detroit:
7 Louisiana State
10 Michigan State
In New Orleans:
8 Baylor
9 Notre Dame
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 Florida State
Baylor or LSU/Michigan State winner
Sugar:
4 Oklahoma
5 Auburn
Fiesta:
2 Alabama
Michigan State or Baylor/Notre Dame winner
Rose:
3 Oregon
6 Texas A&M
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
Saturday, September 13, 2014
They will never retire the #12th man banner at Stanford; BCS Standings for Week 2
After seeing the pre-game enthusiasm that the Seahawks generate, it was a bit of a change to see a Stanford home game that felt like a neutral site. Also, it was obvious the USC band knows how to play during a game, apparently Stanford's band feels like that would be beneath their band mission. Yes, I can see how Ohio State fans buy up half the seats at IU and Purdue, but Stanford has been a BCS Bowl team, and are the current longest streak with four consecutive appearances in my tourney.
But another thing I have learned over the last four seasons, when I have concluded that the Stanford string of tourney appearances is over, they always end up back. No, I won't make any assumptions a
bout the Cardinal for a long time.
The Cardinal are out of the projections this week, and four teams have dropped out so far, two per week. And although ranked teams generally avoid each other like the NFL avoids controversy, the benefits of playing a spotlight match-up are seen in the four teams that have climbed into the tourney. A&M, Georgia, LSU, and USC all were winners in the rare match-ups that mattered, and it paid off, in their elevation. Now South Carolina, Clemson, Wisconsin, and Stanford all dropped due to these same games, but it may have been worth the risk.
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Roger Goodell
IN- LSU, USC; OUT-Stanford, Ohio State
Projected tournament!
FIRST ROUND:
In Detroit:
7 Texas A&M
10 Michigan State
In New Orleans:
8 Louisiana State
9 Southern California
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 Florida State
LSU/USC winner or Michigan State
Fiesta:
4 Alabama
5 Georgia
Rose:
2 Oregon
Texas A&M or LSU/USC winner
Sugar:
3 Oklahoma
6 Auburn
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
But another thing I have learned over the last four seasons, when I have concluded that the Stanford string of tourney appearances is over, they always end up back. No, I won't make any assumptions a
bout the Cardinal for a long time.
The Cardinal are out of the projections this week, and four teams have dropped out so far, two per week. And although ranked teams generally avoid each other like the NFL avoids controversy, the benefits of playing a spotlight match-up are seen in the four teams that have climbed into the tourney. A&M, Georgia, LSU, and USC all were winners in the rare match-ups that mattered, and it paid off, in their elevation. Now South Carolina, Clemson, Wisconsin, and Stanford all dropped due to these same games, but it may have been worth the risk.
| 1 | Florida State | 0.958742 |
| 2 | Oregon | 0.934068 |
| 3 | Alabama | 0.865634 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 0.861287 |
| 5 | Auburn | 0.828631 |
| 6 | Georgia | 0.770333 |
| 7 | Texas A&M | 0.724204 |
| 8 | LSU | 0.698627 |
| 9 | USC | 0.658197 |
| 10 | Baylor | 0.607487 |
| 11 | Notre Dame | 0.568369 |
| 12 | UCLA | 0.560312 |
| 13 | Ole Miss | 0.477595 |
| 14 | Michigan State | 0.473989 |
| 15 | Stanford | 0.35357 |
| 16 | Arizona State | 0.31724 |
| 17 | Virginia Tech | 0.285971 |
| 18 | Missouri | 0.269215 |
| 19 | Ohio State | 0.215004 |
| 20 | BYU | 0.193 |
| 21 | Wisconsin | 0.19209 |
| 22 | South Carolina | 0.180168 |
| 23 | Kansas State | 0.135251 |
| 24 | Louisville | 0.131333 |
| 25 | Clemson | 0.113685 |
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Roger Goodell
IN- LSU, USC; OUT-Stanford, Ohio State
Projected tournament!
FIRST ROUND:
In Detroit:
7 Texas A&M
10 Michigan State
In New Orleans:
8 Louisiana State
9 Southern California
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 Florida State
LSU/USC winner or Michigan State
Fiesta:
4 Alabama
5 Georgia
Rose:
2 Oregon
Texas A&M or LSU/USC winner
Sugar:
3 Oklahoma
6 Auburn
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
Thursday, September 4, 2014
Who will join the Big Five in the Big Six? Central Florida, Boise State, Houston, and Utah State stumble early
The season started just like we like it. Every single one of the analysts predicts a South Carolina win, and Texas A&M walks onto enemy turf and shocks the Cocks. That's college football. I can't think of a sport that you really don't know who's up and who's down until they finally start to play.
Last week's pre-season tournament projection in some ways showed the cluelessness. Of the ten tournament teams from last season, seven were in the pre-season projection. It is the easiest thing to do, when in doubt, use last year as a guide. The only three teams from last year's tourney that were out were Central Florida (so far, no team outside the Big Five is getting much respect), Baylor (who was ranked #11, so barely out), and Missouri. Two of the three that were elevated (in addition to UCLA) were Oregon and Oklahoma, the last two teams out of the tourney selection last year and big winners in their bowl games.
So in real life, the best conference champion outside the Big Five conferences will make a Big Six bowl. And if that champ makes the top 25, they will make my tourney also. Yet some of the early favorites for this slot, Central Florida, Boise State, Houston, and Utah State, took it on the chin in week 1. Marshall is a contender but they didn't blow out their opponent. Cincinnati is the only team that earns any credence in the BCS Standings merely because they are in the top 25 of a computer poll, not nearly enough to get into the to 25. So it will be interesting to track the contenders. Northern Illinois starts a three week road swing to Northwestern, UNLV, and Arkansas, which certainly will test their strength going into conference season.
So here they are, week 2 of the BCS Standings and my ten team tournament projection:
BCS STANDINGS
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Josh Shaw
IN- Texas A&M, Georgia; OUT-South Carolina, UCLA
Projected tournament!
FIRST ROUND:
In Detroit:
7 Michigan State
10 Georgia
In Cincinnati:
8 Ohio State
9 Stanford
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 Florida State
Ohio State/Stanford winner
Sugar:
4 Oklahoma
5 Auburn
Fiesta:
2 Alabama
Michigan State/Georgia winner
Rose:
3 Oregon
6 Texas A&M
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
Last week's pre-season tournament projection in some ways showed the cluelessness. Of the ten tournament teams from last season, seven were in the pre-season projection. It is the easiest thing to do, when in doubt, use last year as a guide. The only three teams from last year's tourney that were out were Central Florida (so far, no team outside the Big Five is getting much respect), Baylor (who was ranked #11, so barely out), and Missouri. Two of the three that were elevated (in addition to UCLA) were Oregon and Oklahoma, the last two teams out of the tourney selection last year and big winners in their bowl games.
So in real life, the best conference champion outside the Big Five conferences will make a Big Six bowl. And if that champ makes the top 25, they will make my tourney also. Yet some of the early favorites for this slot, Central Florida, Boise State, Houston, and Utah State, took it on the chin in week 1. Marshall is a contender but they didn't blow out their opponent. Cincinnati is the only team that earns any credence in the BCS Standings merely because they are in the top 25 of a computer poll, not nearly enough to get into the to 25. So it will be interesting to track the contenders. Northern Illinois starts a three week road swing to Northwestern, UNLV, and Arkansas, which certainly will test their strength going into conference season.
So here they are, week 2 of the BCS Standings and my ten team tournament projection:
BCS STANDINGS
| 1 | Florida State | 0.99377 |
| 2 | Alabama | 0.89892 |
| 3 | Oregon | 0.89566 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 0.83252 |
| 5 | Auburn | 0.77189 |
| 6 | Texas A&M | 0.69349 |
| 7 | Michigan State | 0.69238 |
| 8 | Ohio State | 0.67482 |
| 9 | Stanford | 0.66840 |
| 10 | Georgia | 0.66336 |
| 11 | LSU | 0.64539 |
| 12 | Baylor | 0.63633 |
| 13 | UCLA | 0.63398 |
| 14 | USC | 0.49141 |
| 15 | Ole Miss | 0.32875 |
| 16 | Notre Dame | 0.32740 |
| 17 | Kansas State | 0.24635 |
| 18 | Arizona State | 0.20536 |
| 19 | Wisconsin | 0.20247 |
| 20 | Nebraska | 0.20213 |
| 21 | South Carolina | 0.18279 |
| 21 | Washington | 0.16000 |
| 23 | Texas | 0.14839 |
| 24 | North Carolina | 0.08042 |
| 25 | Missouri | 0.07387 |
"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Josh Shaw
IN- Texas A&M, Georgia; OUT-South Carolina, UCLA
Projected tournament!
FIRST ROUND:
In Detroit:
7 Michigan State
10 Georgia
In Cincinnati:
8 Ohio State
9 Stanford
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Orange:
1 Florida State
Ohio State/Stanford winner
Sugar:
4 Oklahoma
5 Auburn
Fiesta:
2 Alabama
Michigan State/Georgia winner
Rose:
3 Oregon
6 Texas A&M
SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas
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