East Carolina cracks the Top 25 to represent Group of Five; Computers betray Notre Dame in favor of UCLA

Finally, a Group of Five entered the Top 25 to grab a spot in my projected tournament, as East Carolina rolled up 70 points on UNC.  With Northern Illinois losing big and Cincinnati struggling past Miami (and the Ohio one at that), the Pirates look like a proven contender, with wins over Carolina and Virginia Tech, and hanging with South Carolina until at 10 point loss.  Welcome yee buccaneers; argh!

Also, Notre Dame dropped out but there was a reason in my calculations of the computers.  Last week, I used the ratings from the Wes Colley website, and UCLA nudged out Notre Dame.  But then Colley's rankings in the USA Today computer report differed from the site, and I used those ranking, which put ND above the Bruins.  I contacted Dr Colley and he kindly replied that he adapted his rankings early in the season for USA Today, but will revert to his system by week 5.  Since his rankings on the site will become the "real thing" soon, I use those this week, and UCLA grabs the last spot.

And just as ND looks to threaten as an independent, BYU is up to #18, ten spots away from provisional qualification for independents.  Based on their games such as the home win against Virginia, if the Cougars go undefeated, it will not be easy.  But, it is interesting that BYU seemingly has outperformed UCLA against common opponents (UVA and Texas), yet UCLA gets a lot more love.  It seems that Neuheisel's performance to beat Texas as backup QB has been more impactful than BYU dominating Texas in Austin.

Speaking of backups, I certainly has mixed feelings during Florida State-Clemson.  On one hand, I did not want backup QB Sean Maguire, thrust into one of the games of the season, to take the brunt of not winning such a key game.  However, Jameis "Unnecessarily needed I" Winston sidelines circus was a good reason for him to blow the Seminoles chance with his table top antics.  But the synergy lead to an amazing, memorable game.

1	Florida State	0.9566
2	Alabama	0.9279
3	Oklahoma	0.9071
4	Auburn	0.8715
5	Oregon	0.8662
6	Texas A&M	0.8023
7	Baylor	0.6971
8	UCLA	0.6124
9	Notre Dame	0.5769
10	Ole Miss	0.5635
11	Michigan State	0.5234
12	South Carolina	0.4742
13	Mississippi State	0.4516
14	Arizona State	0.4374
15	Georgia	0.4238
16	Stanford	0.3866
17	LSU	0.3285
18	BYU	0.2722
19	Wisconsin	0.2605
20	Nebraska	0.2167
21	USC	0.1773
22	Oklahoma State	0.1360
23	Ohio State	0.1311
24	Kansas State	0.1011
25	East Carolina	0.0729

"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Jameis Winston

IN- UCLA, East Carolina; OUT-LSU, Notre Dame

Projected tournament!

FIRST ROUND:

In Raleigh:
7 Baylor
10 East Carolina 

In Detroit:
8 UCLA
9 Michigan State 
 
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State
UCLA/Michigan State winner

Rose: 
4 Auburn
5 Oregon

Fiesta:
2 Alabama
Baylor/East Carolina winner

Sugar: 
3 Oklahoma
6 Texas A&M

SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas