Who will join the Big Five in the Big Six? Central Florida, Boise State, Houston, and Utah State stumble early

The season started just like we like it.  Every single one of the analysts predicts a South Carolina win, and Texas A&M walks onto enemy turf and shocks the Cocks.  That's college football.  I can't think of a sport that you really don't know who's up and who's down until they finally start to play.

Last week's pre-season tournament projection in some ways showed the cluelessness.  Of the ten tournament teams from last season, seven were in the pre-season projection.  It is the easiest thing to do, when in doubt, use last year as a guide.  The only three teams from last year's tourney that were out were Central Florida (so far, no team outside the Big Five is getting much respect), Baylor (who was ranked #11, so barely out), and Missouri.  Two of the three that were elevated (in addition to UCLA) were Oregon and Oklahoma, the last two teams out of the tourney selection last year and big winners in their bowl games.

So in real life, the best conference champion outside the Big Five conferences will make a Big Six bowl.  And if that champ makes the top 25, they will make my tourney also.  Yet some of the early favorites for this slot, Central Florida, Boise State, Houston, and Utah State, took it on the chin in week 1.  Marshall is a contender but they didn't blow out their opponent.  Cincinnati is the only team that earns any credence in the BCS Standings merely because they are in the top 25 of a computer poll, not nearly enough to get into the to 25.  So it will be interesting to track the contenders.  Northern Illinois starts a three week road swing to Northwestern, UNLV, and Arkansas, which certainly will test their strength going into conference season.

So here they are, week 2 of the BCS Standings and my ten team tournament projection:

BCS STANDINGS

1	Florida State	0.99377
2	Alabama	0.89892
3	Oregon	0.89566
4	Oklahoma	0.83252
5	Auburn	0.77189
6	Texas A&M	0.69349
7	Michigan State	0.69238
8	Ohio State	0.67482
9	Stanford	0.66840
10	Georgia	0.66336
11	LSU	0.64539
12	Baylor	0.63633
13	UCLA	0.63398
14	USC	0.49141
15	Ole Miss	0.32875
16	Notre Dame	0.32740
17	Kansas State	0.24635
18	Arizona State	0.20536
19	Wisconsin	0.20247
20	Nebraska	0.20213
21	South Carolina	0.18279
21	Washington	0.16000
23	Texas	0.14839
24	North Carolina	0.08042
25	Missouri	0.07387

 

"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Josh Shaw

IN- Texas A&M, Georgia; OUT-South Carolina, UCLA

Projected tournament!

FIRST ROUND:

In Detroit:
7 Michigan State
10 Georgia

In Cincinnati:
8 Ohio State
9 Stanford 
 
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State
Ohio State/Stanford winner

Sugar: 
4 Oklahoma
5 Auburn

Fiesta:
2 Alabama
Michigan State/Georgia winner

Rose: 
3 Oregon
6 Texas A&M

SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas