Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Notre Dame and Baylor are moving on up; BCS Standings Week 3

I think the one big difference between my tournament and the current system is there would be more focus on the "Group of Five" teams and their race to claim one of my tourney slots.  After all, this is the time of year that the Group of Five schools pollinate with match-ups against the Power Six. I am happy to see one site dedicated to the Group of Five battle for supremacy , because most pundits only care to write about their chances to make the four team playoff.

But as much as there is talk about schedule inequities among the Power Six, it may be more relevant among the Group of Five.  There is Marshall and the possibility of a cake walk to undefeatedness, then there is East Carolina, with a win over home team Virginia Tech and a 10 point, but they hung around loss at South Carolina.  Central Florida goes overseas to lose to Penn State and to Mizzou for loss number two.  Cincinnati visits Ohio State in a couple weeks, and Northern Illinois, already a winner at Northwestern, going to Arkansas this week.  Who can compare the merits of such schedules to determine who should get the Big Six bowl bid (or the bid or bids in my tourney for that matter)?

It seems like to increase the chance of the big New Year's bowl payday, there will be incentive for teams to "pull a Marshall" and not take on any of the Power schools.

I think for all of the Power Five and Group of Five schools, there may be a time to add a little fairness, and drama, to these non-conferences match-ups.  After all, how can it be fair at all that teams basically decide their own schedule in the real life system which requires subjective assessment of team merit?  How about teams are allowed to create 10-game schedules, and then the remaining two games are decided in an NBA type lottery ball TV special to decide the last two opponents.  Power Five schools would get one ball from the lottery with the name of an out of conference Power Five opponent, and a second with one of the Group of Five schools.  Same with the Group of Five.  A little drama, a little fun, and a little accountability.

Of the teams to watch, I say NIU's game at Arkansas might be very interesting this week, and Cincinnati's game at OSU will be an interesting QB contrast.  Of course, we have to keep an eye on whether Marshall can keep moving along.

Of course, BYU is in the undefeated mix as well, with foes like Central Florida and Utah State as their biggest hurdles.  An undefeated BYU will put a little pressure on the Playoff committee, but Cougars, you are welcome to my tourney, with an provisional qualification with a top eight finish.  With ND and BYU both perhaps having good seasons, maybe I should rethink "independents in the Top 8" making it, and make the rule "the highest ranked independent in the Top 8."  Either way, I would love to see both teams back in my tourney this season.

One team to watch this year and future years is UTSA aka Texas-San Antonio.  They went into pre-season Group of Five "darling to watch" Houston's grand opening of their new digs, and blew out the Cougars.  Then they lost by six at home to Arizona, before a big loss to Oklahoma State.  But national champion coach Larry Coker's program is one to watch for the future, and will there be talk someday that they have surpassed the Longhorns at some point?

One thing I noticed during the Northwestern-Northern Illinois game occurred late in the game.  NIU was drubbing the B1G Ten hosts, but the Wildcats completed a long TD pass late in the game to at least give NU a mathematical chance.  The QB ran down the field with two index fingers raised, as in "number one!"  Dude, you are getting beaten by Northern Illinois, you are likely to lose at home, yet, you are number one.  I have seen this gut reflex of other players and fans in response to one good play in a sea of mis-steps.  I think Andy Warhol was wrong, not fifteen minutes of fame.  We are pursuing fifteen seconds of being noticed, whether for a meaningless QB sack or a viral video of a cute kitty.

Another thing I noticed during the Illinois-Western Kentucky game. My vote for the day's most meaningless graphic during a college football broadcast, "WKU's first fumble recovery for TD since 2012."  Well, that wasn't that long ago, I do not expect fumble returns for TD to occur regularly.

USC wins at Stanford, works their way up the rankings and into my projected tourney last week, yet still are a program ensconced in goofiness.  First Pat Haden runs down to the field.  That was bad enough, but when the coach takes time from a crucial game to have Haden texted, that is even worse.  Then SC goes to Boston College and loses.  Quite a little operation there.

I was impressed with Stanford's defense generally, and if they can settle on a halfback, the Cardinal might not be half bad.

I have also been impressed with Notre Dame QB Everett Golson, after a year off. Sometimes, he does not make the best move under the pressure of a rush, but he also does not do something really bad either.

And what is the big deal with the breaking of the Michigan-ND "rivalry"?  They have had breaks in the "rivalry" of 34 and 33 years, so more than 67 years of no Wolverine-Irish contests, yet the planets persist.  Hey Michigan, you can hang out in South Bend in 2047 or '48.

After North Dakota State goes to Iowa State and pounds them in Ames, one wonders how close NDSU is getting to merit talk that they are better than the Group of Five's best.  The computers already love them.

I saw that the McNeese State players, rather than their last name, all have "McNeese" plastered on their jersey backs.  Given my confusion when I saw the ushers at Chicago sporting events all with the name "Andy Frain" on their hats, certainly I would have thought McNeese were all kinfolk if I was a youngster.

I saw the B1G Ten TV commercial advertising deposits for tickets for the confernece championship game  "if your team makes it."  That is a brilliant way to pile up a bunch of deposit interest until December, and help ticket sales.  Fictionally, I am doing the same for the Semi-Finals in Atlanta and the BCS Championship in Arlington.  I bet the real life championship game will start the same deal, with the quick turnaround and potential long distance travel for fans dealing with a New Year's bowl game also.

This week, things are really tight in the BCS Standings.  Alabama, Oregon, and Oklahoma are all super tight, and being in top two is precious, as is Notre Dame - UCLA for the last at-large spot.  Notre Dame had quite a lead in the polls, but the Bruins get quite a bit of computer love.

BCS Standings - Week 3

1 Florida State  0.9652
2 Alabama  0.9002
3 Oregon 0.8978
4 Oklahoma  0.8916
5 Auburn 0.8639
6 Texas A&M  0.7989
7 LSU 0.7384
8 Baylor 0.6786
9 Notre Dame 0.5927
10 UCLA 0.5898
11 Ole Miss 0.5281
12 Michigan State 0.5056
13 South Carolina 0.4619
14 Georgia 0.4513
15 Arizona State 0.3867
16 Stanford 0.3404
17 Missouri 0.3248
18 Kansas State 0.2579
19 Wisconsin 0.2229
20 USC 0.2025
21 BYU 0.1699
21 Clemson 0.1394
23 Ohio State 0.1376
24 Nebraska 0.1359
25 Oklahoma State 0.0769


"In college football, one day you're in, the next, you're out" - Adrian Peterson

IN- Baylor, Notre Dame; OUT-USC, Georgia

Projected tournament!

FIRST ROUND:

In Detroit:
7 Louisiana State
10 Michigan State

In New Orleans
:
8 Baylor
9 Notre Dame 
 
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Florida State
Baylor or LSU/Michigan State winner

Sugar: 
4 Oklahoma
5 Auburn

Fiesta:

2 Alabama
Michigan State or Baylor/Notre Dame winner

Rose: 
3 Oregon
6 Texas A&M

SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta

BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas

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