Are the Ducks flying below the radar? Tournament predictions for 2012-2013

Last season, I called the tournament "A Tale of Two Brackets," because the bottom half, with Oklahoma State versus Oregon and Stanford versus Arkansas, had so much intrigue, whereas top seeds LSU and Alabama seemed to tower over the rest of the field.

This season, it also seems a tale of two brackets, but for a different reason.  The top six seeds all seem like they have a chance to make a run to win the championship in Miami, however, those six seem head and shoulders above seeds seven to ten, which seem unlikely to truly challenge the top of the field.  This is not 2009-2010, when Iowa, at-large at tenth seed was also tenth in the BCS standings; hence, the top ten in the standings were the ten teams in my tournament.  What this means is that although the top six teams all have a shot, certainly it is to benefit Notre Dame and Alabama to be able to cruise to the Semi-Finals.

So here are my predictions for this year's tournament:

First Round:

Atlanta-Florida State versus Wisconsin: Certainly Wisconsin's five losses would seem to make FSU the logical choice.  However, Wisconsin lost three games in overtime, and the two others by three points, so not a bad record in the NHL point system.  Plus Wisconsin seemed to have it together in their thrashing of Nebraska in the conference championship, whereas the Seminoles allowed 6-7 Georgia Tech to stick around and make it interesting.  Plus, here is the big piece of info. The Big Ten has not exactly dominated my tournament, but they are 5-0 in First Round games since I went to ten teams, including three wins versus ACC champs, including Wisconsin's thrashing of Clemson last season.

Prediction: Wisconsin by 2

Tournament outlook: Either of these teams could put a scare into Notre Dame, but playing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl?  Losing by 4 like Wisconsin lost to last season's top seed LSU would be a moral victory.  And that is very unlikely.

Chicago-Northern Illinois versus Louisville:  It feels like the mid-major bowl.  Maybe NIU will be overwhelmed by the spotlight, but then again, MAC runner-up Kent State easily handled Big East runner-up Rutgers in NJ.  So that tips it to the Huskies. 

Prediction: Northern Illinois by 15

Tournament outlook: Again, seems like a big break for Notre Dame, who can struggle with the Pitt's of the world (hmm, maybe that is what John McEnroe meant back in the day at Wimbledon), but should be able to beat either of these teams on an off day.  But I can imagine in my deepest thoughts a tourney shocker loss to NIU.  And the loss of TV ratings, ticket values...

Quarterfinal Bowls: 

Fiesta Bowl-Notre Dame versus Northern Illinois/Louisville: Okay, ND should be able to handle these guys, but what about the rest of the bracket?  Luckily for the Irish, the SEC teams are both on the other side of the tourney.  They would face the Oregon/Kansas State winner.  That would be a toss-up for the Irish but certainly a challenging game for ND, with either Ducks or Wildcats on a roll after a big win.  Though they have a winnable bracket, I don't see the top seed Irish winning it all

Prediction: Notre Dame by 9

Tournament outlook: Irish lose in Semi-Finals

Orange Bowl-Oregon versus Kansas State: At first glance it was the best game of the Bowls but then oddsmakers decided the Ducks were a big favorites.  This seems like a nice place for the Ducks, who have the longest active run of four consecutive tournaments, but have been a bit of a thud in the last three, with a record of 2-3.  First they lost to tenth seed Iowa, made it to the championship game the next season but lost to Auburn (that's Auburn, not Bama, LSU, or Florida; that may have been the best chance to knock off the SEC), and then last year lost a heart breaker to Oklahoma State. So maybe the Ducks will be comfortable here, with K-State, then ND, then probably an SEC team or Stanford in the Finals.

In this game, based on K-State's games against Baylor and Texas, I assumed that the Wildcats might play the Ducks close for three quarters, then Oregon would just run away from them late.  However, Baylor and Texas have shown themselves to be a tough match-up for Pac-12 teams in their bowls, so Kansas State might just give the Ducks another tourney thud.  

Prediction: Oregon by 5

Tournament outlook: Underdog Oregon win the National Championship!

Sugar Bowl-Alabama versus Florida State/Wisconsin: Alabama would have been the tournament favorite even if they were fourth seed, how it looked when Oregon and KState were still undefeated.  But it would have been funner to watch Bama do it from the fourth seed than their typical high perch.  They should cruise in this game.

Prediction: Alabama by 22

Tournament outlook: Alabama fans have to remember 2009-2010 when they were top seed, but lost to Tim Tebow and fifth seeded Florida in the Semi-Finals, after having beaten the Gators in the SEC championship game.  That potential Semi-Finals match-up against Florida is winnable for Bama, but will be a struggle no matter what.  I'll say Alabama squeaks by a tough Florida team, but it takes enough out of them to be vulnerable to Oregon in the Championship Game. 

Rose Bowl-Florida versus Stanford: On paper, the Oregon-Kansas State game jumps out as a tourney highlight, but this game may be the most intriguing.  Not because it will be close, but which direction will it take?   Powerful SEC team whips studious Stanford in a predictable way, or does Stanford use their two consecutive Rose Bowl wins and back to back Final Fours to overpower a Florida team that has looked funky at times against lesser foe this season.  It may not be close, but it will be interesting!

Stanford must feel like an SEC team over their three consecutive tourney appearances, with four of their five games against SEC teams.  With losses in the Semi-Finals to Auburn in the Semi-Finals two seasons ago, a loss to LSU (after beating Arkansas in the Rose Bowl) in the Semi-Finals last season, they are 1-2 so far versus the SEC.  However, the Pac-10/12 has held their own in the Rose Bowl against the SEC (USC whipped Bama in addition to last year's Cardinal win).  All the more intrigue.  And if Stanford wins again, guess who may be waiting at Cowboys Stadium in the Semi-Finals; Alabama.

Prediction: Florida by 11

Tournament outlook: Either team can make run to win it all, but Alabama stands in their way

Stewart Mandel of CNNSI.com makes his annual predictions for my college tourney

(actually, Stewart makes picks for the real bowl games, and I annually transform them into predictions for my playoffs; i.e., if the games turn out like he says, this is how my tournament will play out, for the First Round and BCS Bowl Quarterfinals, at least)

As part of Stewart Mandel's predictions of all of the bowl games this season, here are his predictions for the tournament's first round and quarterfinals. Over the last two seasons, Stew (can I call ya Stew?) has been 10-2 in these games.  Two years ago, Stewart was 6-0, and 4-2 last year.


FIRST ROUND:

In Atlanta:
7 Florida State 17
10 Wisconsin 14

In Chicago:
8 Northern Illinois 16
9 Louisville 10


BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Fiesta: 
1 Notre Dame 28
8 Northern Illinois 15

Orange: 
4 Oregon 40
5 Kansas State 27

Sugar:
2 Alabama 46
7 Florida State 28

Rose: 
3 Florida 27
6 Stanford 35


Semi-finals in Arlington, Texas:
Notre Dame vs. Oregon
Alabama vs. Stanford

BCS Championship in Miami

Quick, turn on the "2012 BCS College Football Tournament Selection Show"!

And now live from the ESPN studios, it's the BCS College Football Tournament Selection Show presented by Java Monster Mean Bean, with Rece Davis, Lou Holtz, and Mark May.

RECE: Well folks, here it is.  At the beginning of this season, people thought it would be a Mount Rushmore of college football royalty returning to the college football tournament: USC, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Florida State.  Only Florida State cooperated with those prognostications, but we ended up with some royalty of pretty high esteem:  the presumed number one seed, Notre Dame.  Coach, what do you think of the Irish this season?

LOU: Notre Dame had a phenomenal season; undefeated, and we assume they will be number one seed in the tourney.  Boy, I remember Notre Dame fans looking at the tournament schedule and seeing Indianapolis hosting the Semi-Finals next season, and thinking, is there any way Notre Dame will be ready to play with elite teams and get a chance to play down south in Indianapolis.  I think most thought that was a nice dream, but very unlikely.  Well, here we are, a year early, with Notre Dame not only in the tournament, but top seed.  It is an amazing job by Coach Kelly.

MARK: Coach, it is because Notre Dame’s AD came to his senses and hired a coach with a proven successful college head coaching track record, unlike the head coaches like Gerry Faust, Bob Davie, and Charlie Weis.  Brian Kelly brought two Cincinnati teams to this tournament, including an undefeated team three seasons ago.  So, he has done this before, a good hire for a program like Notre Dame.  However, Coach Kelly’s teams went 0-2 in the tournament, losing a First Round game to Penn State and the Orange Bowl to Boise State, so he has something to prove too.

LOU: But Mark, the talent Coach Kelly had at Cincinnati pales in comparison to this Notre Dame team.  The only obstacle I see if the brackets give them three SEC teams in a row.  Man alive, that would be tough for any team, even an SEC team to do that.

RECE:  That’s right, that was the draw Stanford and Andrew Luck had last season; the Cardinal had to win over Arkansas, then they lost to LSU so they could not face Alabama in the championship game. 

So guys, this is what we know.  Ten teams will make it and these teams are in: Alabama, Kansas State, Stanford, Wisconsin, and, we are pretty certain, Louisville.  Then certainly Notre Dame will be there, as will Florida.  We thought it would be safe to include Oregon, in their fourth consecutive tournament, but they may be a bubble team now, with the MAC champ Northern Illinois in the mix, and Georgia performing so well yesterday, that Georgia may find themselves above Oregon in the seedings. 

So that leaves two spots, maybe for two at-large’s, which could be Oregon, Georgia, and/or LSU, or one of those slots could go to a non-automatic conference champion, Northern Illinois or Boise State.  Coach, who is going to get those last spots in the tournament?

LOU: I think Northern Illinois is going to make it in.  It is going to be close, but the MAC had a great season, and they even beat my alma mater Kent State, so they have to be good.  Northern Illinois not only could be in the tournament, but also eighth seed, maybe playing near home against Louisville in the First Round.  For the other slot, also very close, but I give a nudge to Oregon over Georgia.  Oh boy, it is going to be close.

MARK:  Coach, I think it is going to be Georgia and Oregon getting the last spots, and no MAC champ.  After their gritty performance yesterday, the Bulldogs have to be there.  And I think they will be in the top six seeds, sending Stanford to the First Round.  It will be tough for the Cardinal to make it to their third straight Final Four from the seventh seed. 

And coach, if Northern Illinois makes in it in rather than Georgia who came within five yards of being a top two seed, and Oregon, who came within a goal post of being the top seed, then outrage will prevail.  No way should those teams be out of the tournament with Northern Illinois replacing either of them. It would be a travesty and this tournament will take some heat.

LOU: Well Mark, I like it how the old NCAA basketball tournament used to be, when you had to win you conference to qualify.  Northern Illinois won their conference, and the MAC had a great season, and Oregon and Georgia, great teams, but they had their chance to win their conference and they did not.  Plus, the tournament will make some changes, in two years no automatic for the Big East, your alma mater Pitt’s conference.  If Louisville was out, then there would be no problem, so that will be fixed.

MARK: Coach, the MAC’s track record doesn’t look that great in hindsight.  Northern Illinois lost to Iowa by a point, but then again the Hawkeyes were a disappointment.  Wins against Kansas and Rutgers are nice, but those teams did not live up to expectations.

RECE:  Guys, let’s go to Indianapolis to a couple college football experts for their perspectives.  First SEC expert Watkins Stevens, what are your thoughts about who will win the tournament this year?

WATKINS: SEC SEC SEC!

RECE: So you think no chance for Notre Dame?

WATKINS:  I am concerned about them.  Bama struggled with the quarterback from Texas A & M, that ND quarterback is slippery.

RECE: And our other expert Nye Allen, who seems to not be a fan of the Irish and may be a bit tired of Alabama.  So Nye, what would you think of a Notre Dame-Alabama championship game?

NYE:  HATE it! Won't watch a minute of it.

RECE: But Mike & Mike’s Mike Golic's two sons are on the Irish, he went to senior day and everything, it is very family-friendly, very touching.

NYE: That stupid leprechaun ruins any family feeling!  He is evil!

RECE: Watkins, any last comments?

WATKINS: SEC SEC SEC!

RECE: Weeks of games, lots of big plays, and it all boils down to the next few minutes, when we find out which ten teams will make this year’s college football tournament.  And now, it is time to learn the which ten teams made the 2012-2013 BCS college football tournament, so we go to Brent Musburger in Miami. Brent...

BRENT:  You are looking...LIVE at the home of the Orange Bowl, and the site of the championship game, Miami, Florida.  Hi there everybody, ten teams will play to win here, and take home the BCS championship trophy. And now, it is time for the Planters Nut-rition bracket presentation. Let's go to tournament Commissioner Nelson, who will reveal this year's tournament. Commissioner..."

COMMISIONER: Thank you Brent. It is my pleasure to announce the teams that will be playing in the 2012-2013 BCS College Football Tournament.

In the First Round, in Atlanta, the seventh seed and champion of the Atlantic Coast Conference, the Seminoles of Florida State University, will take on the tenth seed, and champion of the Big Ten conference, the University of Wisconsin Badgers.

The other First Round game will be played in Chicago, where the eighth seed, the Huskies of the Northern Illinois University, champion of the Mid American Conference, will play the ninth seeded University of Louisville Cardinals, champions of the Big East.

So let's move onto the BCS Bowl quarterfinals. The winner of the Northern Illinois/Louisville match-up will move on to the Fiesta Bowl, to play the top seed, the University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish, independent automatic qualifiers.

The winner of the Fiesta Bowl, will take on the winner of the Orange Bowl, which will feature the fourth seed, in the tournament for the fourth consecutive season, an at-large team from the Pacific Ten conference, the Ducks of the University of Oregon, and champions of the Big XII, the fifth seeded Kansas State University WIldcats

The winner of the Florida State/Wisconsin game will move on to the Sugar Bowl, to play the number two seed, and champion of the Southeastern Conference, the Crimson Tide of the University of Alabama

The Sugar Bowl winner will take on the winner of the remaining quarterfinal game, the Rose Bowl, which will feature the third seed, at-large from the Southeast Conference, the University of Florida Gators, who will play the sixth seed, and champion of the Pac-12 conference, the Cardinal of Stanford University.

The winners of the BCS quarterfinals will meet in Arlington, Texas for Football's Final Four, and the winner of the semi-finals will play for the BCS championship, right here, in Miami.

BRENT: Thank you Commissioner, it shapes up to be yet another exciting tournament. How close was it for Northern Illinois to make it into the tournament, and who would have filled that final at-large spot?

COMMISH:  Northern Illinois finished 15th in the standings, and Georgia finished seventh, so Oregon had a healthy lead for the second at-large spot.  The Bulldogs are a great team, but I am happy that the top six teams, plus four fine conference champions will play in this year’s tournament.

BRENT:  Thank you Commissioner, and now back to the studio.

(microphones pick up unsuspecting continuing conversation)

BRENT: Good job Commissioner. You did fine.

COMMISH:  I think my voice sounded goofy, I think I may have low T.

BRENT:  Oh no, but maybe you should talk to your doctor or pharmacist.

(back to the studio)

RECE: Wow, a MAC shocker, Northern Illinois is in, Georgia is out.  Coach, your thoughts?

LOU: Congratulations to the Huskies!  These are always tough choices, but I think this will be a great tournament. 

MARK: But understand Lou’s happiness and where it is derived from.  Not only is Northern Illinois a winner, but the Irish play the winner of NIU and Louisville; so Notre Dame is a big winner in this too.  Even Alabama may get an edge, playing Florida State or Wisconsin rather than Stanford.   On another note, Stanford earned a top six seed rather than a First Round game to participate in their third consecutive Rose Bowl, a much easier path to make their third straight Final Four.

RECE:  Let’s look at this graphic. These are the leaders in appearances over the seven years of the ten team era.  Four teams move up to tie for the lead with four appearances over the last seven seasons, Florida, Alabama, Wisconsin, and Oregon:

Ohio State           4              2006, 2007, 2009, 2010

Oklahoma           4              2006, 2007, 2008, 2010

Florida                 4              2006, 2008, 2009, 2012

Alabama              4              2008, 2009, 2011, 2012

Wisconsin            4              2006, 2010, 2011, 2012

Oregon                4              2009, 2010, 2011, 2012

USC                    3              2006, 2007, 2008

Virginia Tech      3              2007, 2008, 2010

Boise State         3              2006, 2009, 2011

LSU                    3              2006, 2007, 2011

Stanford              3              2010, 2011, 2012

Cincinnati            2              2008, 2009

TCU                    2              2009, 2010

Texas                 2              2008, 2009

Arkansas            2              2010, 2011

West Virginia     2              2007, 2011

Louisville            2              2006, 2012

Auburn               1              2010

Connecticut       1              2010

Georgia             1              2007

Georgia Tech    1              2009

Hawaii               1              2007

Iowa                  1              2009

Kansas             1              2007

Michigan           1              2006

Missouri            1              2007

Penn State        1              2008

Texas Tech       1              2008

Utah                  1              2008

Wake Forest      1              2006

Oklahoma State 1              2011

Clemson             1              2011

Notre Dame        1              2012

Kansas State      1              2012

Florida State       1              2012

Northern Illinois   1              2012

RECE: And if you think it is the same teams every year, four new teams join for the first time in the seven years of the ten team era:  Notre Dame, Kansas State, Florida State, and of course Northern Illinois. 

And one consequence of going to ten teams was the advent of the First Round games, which cities love to host, and has really taken the tournament across the country. This year, two new locations, Atlanta, because Florida State has to go out of state with the title game in South Florida, and Chicago.

First Round Game Sites During the Ten Team Era:

Charlotte             3

Pittsburgh           3

Boise                  1

San Diego          1

Seattle                1

Cincinnati           1

Dallas                 1

Green Bay          1

Atlanta                1

Chicago               1

Rece, "So let's review the tournament..."

First Round:

Atlanta: #7 Florida State (ACC Champ) versus #10 Wisconsin (Big Ten Champ)
 
Chicago: #8 Northern Illinois (MAC Champ) versus #9 Louisville (Big East Champ)

 

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Fiesta: #1 Notre Dame (Independent AQ) versus Northern Illinois/Louisville winner

Orange: #4 Oregon (at large) versus #5 Kansas State (Big XII Champ)

Sugar: #2 Alabama (SEC Champ) versus Florida State/Wisconsin winner

Rose: #3 Florida (at-large) versus #6 Stanford (Pac-12 Champ)

Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in Arlington, Texas

National Championship in Miami

RECE: It should be a great great tournament. For the Hall of Famer, Lou Holtz, and Mark May, good night from the ESPN studios