Last season, I called the tournament "A Tale of Two Brackets," because the bottom half, with Oklahoma State versus Oregon and Stanford versus Arkansas, had so much intrigue, whereas top seeds LSU and Alabama seemed to tower over the rest of the field.
This season, it also seems a tale of two brackets, but for a different reason. The top six seeds all seem like they have a chance to make a run to win the championship in Miami, however, those six seem head and shoulders above seeds seven to ten, which seem unlikely to truly challenge the top of the field. This is not 2009-2010, when Iowa, at-large at tenth seed was also tenth in the BCS standings; hence, the top ten in the standings were the ten teams in my tournament. What this means is that although the top six teams all have a shot, certainly it is to benefit Notre Dame and Alabama to be able to cruise to the Semi-Finals.
So here are my predictions for this year's tournament:
First Round:
Atlanta-Florida State versus Wisconsin: Certainly Wisconsin's five losses would seem to make FSU the logical choice. However, Wisconsin lost three games in overtime, and the two others by three points, so not a bad record in the NHL point system. Plus Wisconsin seemed to have it together in their thrashing of Nebraska in the conference championship, whereas the Seminoles allowed 6-7 Georgia Tech to stick around and make it interesting. Plus, here is the big piece of info. The Big Ten has not exactly dominated my tournament, but they are 5-0 in First Round games since I went to ten teams, including three wins versus ACC champs, including Wisconsin's thrashing of Clemson last season.
Prediction: Wisconsin by 2
Tournament outlook: Either of these teams could put a scare into Notre Dame, but playing Alabama in the Sugar Bowl? Losing by 4 like Wisconsin lost to last season's top seed LSU would be a moral victory. And that is very unlikely.
Chicago-Northern Illinois versus Louisville: It feels like the mid-major bowl. Maybe NIU will be overwhelmed by the spotlight, but then again, MAC runner-up Kent State easily handled Big East runner-up Rutgers in NJ. So that tips it to the Huskies.
Prediction: Northern Illinois by 15
Tournament outlook: Again, seems like a big break for Notre Dame, who can struggle with the Pitt's of the world (hmm, maybe that is what John McEnroe meant back in the day at Wimbledon), but should be able to beat either of these teams on an off day. But I can imagine in my deepest thoughts a tourney shocker loss to NIU. And the loss of TV ratings, ticket values...
Quarterfinal Bowls:
Fiesta Bowl-Notre Dame versus Northern Illinois/Louisville: Okay, ND should be able to handle these guys, but what about the rest of the bracket? Luckily for the Irish, the SEC teams are both on the other side of the tourney. They would face the Oregon/Kansas State winner. That would be a toss-up for the Irish but certainly a challenging game for ND, with either Ducks or Wildcats on a roll after a big win. Though they have a winnable bracket, I don't see the top seed Irish winning it all
Prediction: Notre Dame by 9
Tournament outlook: Irish lose in Semi-Finals
Orange Bowl-Oregon versus Kansas State: At first glance it was the best game of the Bowls but then oddsmakers decided the Ducks were a big favorites. This seems like a nice place for the Ducks, who have the longest active run of four consecutive tournaments, but have been a bit of a thud in the last three, with a record of 2-3. First they lost to tenth seed Iowa, made it to the championship game the next season but lost to Auburn (that's Auburn, not Bama, LSU, or Florida; that may have been the best chance to knock off the SEC), and then last year lost a heart breaker to Oklahoma State. So maybe the Ducks will be comfortable here, with K-State, then ND, then probably an SEC team or Stanford in the Finals.
In this game, based on K-State's games against Baylor and Texas, I assumed that the Wildcats might play the Ducks close for three quarters, then Oregon would just run away from them late. However, Baylor and Texas have shown themselves to be a tough match-up for Pac-12 teams in their bowls, so Kansas State might just give the Ducks another tourney thud.
Prediction: Oregon by 5
Tournament outlook: Underdog Oregon win the National Championship!
Sugar Bowl-Alabama versus Florida State/Wisconsin: Alabama would have been the tournament favorite even if they were fourth seed, how it looked when Oregon and KState were still undefeated. But it would have been funner to watch Bama do it from the fourth seed than their typical high perch. They should cruise in this game.
Prediction: Alabama by 22
Tournament outlook: Alabama fans have to remember 2009-2010 when they were top seed, but lost to Tim Tebow and fifth seeded Florida in the Semi-Finals, after having beaten the Gators in the SEC championship game. That potential Semi-Finals match-up against Florida is winnable for Bama, but will be a struggle no matter what. I'll say Alabama squeaks by a tough Florida team, but it takes enough out of them to be vulnerable to Oregon in the Championship Game.
Rose Bowl-Florida versus Stanford: On paper, the Oregon-Kansas State game jumps out as a tourney highlight, but this game may be the most intriguing. Not because it will be close, but which direction will it take? Powerful SEC team whips studious Stanford in a predictable way, or does Stanford use their two consecutive Rose Bowl wins and back to back Final Fours to overpower a Florida team that has looked funky at times against lesser foe this season. It may not be close, but it will be interesting!
Stanford must feel like an SEC team over their three consecutive tourney appearances, with four of their five games against SEC teams. With losses in the Semi-Finals to Auburn in the Semi-Finals two seasons ago, a loss to LSU (after beating Arkansas in the Rose Bowl) in the Semi-Finals last season, they are 1-2 so far versus the SEC. However, the Pac-10/12 has held their own in the Rose Bowl against the SEC (USC whipped Bama in addition to last year's Cardinal win). All the more intrigue. And if Stanford wins again, guess who may be waiting at Cowboys Stadium in the Semi-Finals; Alabama.
Prediction: Florida by 11
Tournament outlook: Either team can make run to win it all, but Alabama stands in their way
No comments:
Post a Comment