ESPN's Mark Schlabach and I predict the tournament's First Round and Bowl games

(Actually, Mark predicted all the bowl games here, and I plugged in his predictions into my tournament algorithms.  That is if the games turns out like he predicts, the tournament will turn out as presented below.  Usually I use Stewart Mandel's picks, but I cannot find picks with a score or margin of victory by Stew this season.  If they are out there, let me know)

ESPN's Mark Schlabach and I have our predictions for the two First Round games and the four Bowl games in the ten team tournament:

First Round Shreveport:
Mark: Iowa over Houston by 2
Me:  Iowa over Houston by 3

First Round Chicago:
Mark: Notre Dame over TCU by 1
Me:  TCU over Notre Dame by 4

Orange Bowl:
Mark: Clemson over Iowa by 8
Me: Clemson over TCU by 6

Sugar Bowl:
Mark: Ohio State over Oklahoma by 1
Me: Ohio State over Oklahoma by 3

Peach Bowl:
Mark: Alabama over Notre Dame by 12
Me: Alabama over Iowa by 11 

Rose Bowl:
Mark: Stanford over Michigan State by 2
Me: Stanford over Michigan State by 3

Final Four in San Antonio:
Mark: Clemson vs Ohio State; Alabama vs Stanford
Me: Clemson vs Ohio State; Alabama vs Stanford

Semi-Finals on New Year's Eve? *sigh* the College Football Playoff still cannot get it right

So much promise, but the College Football Playoff decides to play both Semi-Final games on New Year's Eve.  So then New Year's Day gets capped off with, drum roll please, a meaningless Sugar Bowl, with Ole Miss versus Oklahoma State.  I think.  I just know it is an SEC team against a Big XII team.

Does the Playoff think bringing back "tradition" means putting the games on the same day every year?  That tradition never held even in the good old days.  Orange Bowl was on both New Years Eve and New Year's night (but I don't think ever at 4 pm, like this year.  Otherwise, how could we have the nighttime halftime extravaganzas like the video below!).  The Fiesta Bowl was on Christmas Day, the Cotton Bowl all over the calendar, the Sugar Bowl head to head against the Rose Bowl, and who knows where the Peach Bowl has been.

So here is my solution, as I have to save the college football establishment from itself.  Again.

Okay, we keep the Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl as the last game of the night.  If one of them has the Semi-Final game, they play on New Year's night, otherwise New Year's Eve.  Whoever else has a Semi-Final, then they play 1pm on New Year's Day, got it?  Let's pair the Rose Bowl with the Peach Bowl for Semi-Finals.  In years when they have the Playoff games, Peach Bowl at 1pm, Rose Bowl at 5pm on New Year's Day (the Rose Bowl will be the same time, same day, every year).   A non-playoff Sugar Bowl can follow them.  We can start next year, pairing the Rose and the Peach.  The Fiesta has had a lot of years in the spotlight and the Championship game this year, so they can wait a bit.  That's it, that's the plan, please reconvene.  You are welcome!

Quick, turn on the 2015-2016 BCS College Football Tournament Selection Show!

Welcome to the 2015-2016 College Football Tournament selection show, sponsored by Planters Nut-rition Chocolate Nut Protein Mix.  Now to the ESPN Studios, with Rece Davis, Mark May, and Lou Holtz.

RECE:  Welcome everyone to this year’s College Football Tournament selection show, and, well, the old gang is back together.  Look who’s here, coach Lou Holtz, how are you doing coach?

LOU: Well I am just pleased as punch to be here.  It has been a very exciting football season this year, and should be a great tournament. 

RECE: Well, let’s go through what we know, and what we don’t know, but will determine in the next few minutes.   We know these five conference champions are in: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan State, Stanford, and Oklahoma.  Another automatic qualifier will be the top conference champion among the other five conferences, who do you think will get that bid Mark?

Mark: The spot has to go to Houston, champion of the American Conference, no doubt.  Western Kentucky will be a very, very distant second to them.  Remember, four years ago, Houston was looking at a top six seed in the tourney, but Southern Miss stunned them in the Conference USA championship game, but Houston will make it in this season, probably as a ten seed. It is interesting that every season, we think we have found the team that will earn this "Group of Five" bid.  First it was Central Florida, we figured with a coach like George O'Leary, they would be the yearly choice.  Then we thought after last season, oh, it will be Boise State every year with their successful history.  I think we are learning that the "Group of Five" slot may just go to a different school over and over again.

RECE: Coach, another way to be an automatic qualifier is to be an independent in the top eight in the BCS rankings.  Can you think of a team that might qualify that way, Lou?

LOU:  Boy do I!  Notre Dame has had a just spectacular season, and they will earn an automatic spot as an independent.  Great job Irish!

RECE: So that is seven projected automatic qualifiers, and that means three at-large spots are open.  Mark, who do you think gets those?

MARK: Ohio State and Iowa are definitely in.  Iowa may have been a question mark before the Big Ten Championship game, but they played Michigan State down to the wire, they are definitely in.  So that leaves one spot for a number of two-loss teams. 

RECE: And those teams are Texas Christian, Florida State, Northwestern, and Oklahoma State.  Who will take that last spot?

MARK:  Rece, I was leaning to TCU, but now I think it will be Florida State.  Florida State really dominated Florida in their last game, whereas Texas Christian’s offense was basically non-existent in the second half again Baylor in their finale.  It took the rules of overtime to give TCU field position to finally score, in an absolutely putrid second half performance.  So I think the Seminoles momentum brings them into the tourney.

LOU: Well, I disagree.  It has to be the defending champion Texas Christian.  Mark, the rain made the weather conditions just terrible for both teams in that TCU-Baylor game, the rain was just a downpour.  You cannot blame the players for that.  TCU barely, just barely lost to Oklahoma with their backup quarterback, on the road, no less.  Texas Christian has to be there.

RECE: And another unknown is, who will make the top six, and avoid a first round game? It seems clear that Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Michigan State will be in the top four, but we have Ohio State, Iowa, and Stanford that want those final two spots of the top six.  Who do you think it will be, Mark?

MARK:  I think it will be Ohio State and Stanford, and Iowa playing in the First Round.  Stanford as conference champs of the Pac-12 will get the nod over Iowa.

LOU: No Mark, it has to be the two one-loss teams, and that is Ohio State and Iowa.  Iowa played such a great season, undefeated and then a last minute loss in the conference championship.  No way Iowa plays a First Round game.

RECE: Guys, it is time to get all of our questions answered, and go to Brent Musburger in Glendale, Arizona to learn who is in and where they play.  Brent?

BRENT:  You are looking...LIVE at University of Phoenix Stadium, in Glendale, Arizona, the site of this season's championship game.  Hi there everybody, ten teams will play to win here, and take home the BCS championship trophy. And now, it is time for the Nestle Nesquick Chocolate Lowfat Milk bracket presentation.  Nestle Nesquick Chocolate Lowfat Milk, only 150 calories, and no refrigeration needed.  Space-Age technology in your lunch pail.

Let's go to tournament Commissioner Nelson, who will reveal this year's tournament. Commissioner..."

COMMISIONER: Thank you Brent. It is my yearly pleasure to announce the teams that will be playing in the 2015-2016 BCS College Football Tournament.


In the First Round, in Shreveport, Louisiana, the seventh seed, the Hawkeyes of the University if Iowa, a Big Ten at-large, will play the tenth seeded University of Houston Cougars, champions of the American Athletic Conference.

The other First Round game will be played in Chicago, where the eighth seed and automatic qualifying independent, the Irish of Notre Dame University, will take on the ninth seed, and at-large team from the Big XII Conference, the defending champion Texas Christian University Horned Frogs.

  

So let's move onto the BCS Bowl quarterfinals. Either Texas Christian, Iowa, or Houston will move on to the Orange Bowl, to play the top seed, the Tigers of  Clemson University, champions of the Atlantic Coast Conference. 

The winner of the Sugar Bowl, will take on the winner of the Sugar Bowl, which will feature the fourth seed, champion of the Big XII conference, the Buckeyes of the Ohio State University, and fifth seeded at-large from the Big Ten Conference, the Buckeyes of Ohio State University.
 

Either Notre Dame, Iowa, or Houston will move on to the Peach Bowl, to play the number two seed, and champion of the Southeastern Conference, the Crimson Tide of the University of Alabama.

The Orange Bowl winner will take on the winner of the remaining quarterfinal game, the Rose Bowl, which will feature the third seed, champion of the Big Ten Conference, the Michigan State Spartans, who will play the sixth seed, champion of the Pac-12 Conference, the Cardinal of Stanford University.

The winners of the BCS quarterfinals will meet in San Antonio for Football's Final Four, and the winner of the semi-finals will play for the BCS championship, right here, in Glendale, Arizona.

BRENT: Thank you Commissioner, it shapes up to be yet another exciting tournament. Two questions.  What was the bubble team that was closest to make the field, and secondly, how close was it between Stanford and Iowa for that last spot in the top six?  

COMMISH:  Florida State was the last team out of the tournament, but was not particularly close to Texas Christian in the standings for the last at-large slot.  

As far as the top six goes, in fact Iowa finished sixth in a razor thin margin over Stanford. It was so close, Stanford was sixth during the entire weekend until the last of six computer rankings came into play.  So it was very close.  If we allowed both Ohio State and Iowa in the top six, then we would have had to have one of them play Michigan State.  We felt in unfair to the Spartans to have won their conference and then have to play one of those teams again so soon, that it would have diminished their accomplishment.  And as conference champion, Stanford also merited inclusion in the top six.  We went back and forth, but I feel that we would have made this decision 99% of the time.

BRENT:  Thank you Commissioner, and now back to Rece at the studio.

(microphones pick up unsuspecting continuing conversation)

BRENT: Good job Commissioner. You did fine.

COMMISH:  I feel like I am getting better at this TV part every year, whew!

BRENT:  Yes, you did fine.  And thank you for allowing me to continue hosting this presentation, but why did you have to have Lou Holtz back on also.   It is going to start looking like a charity event for demoted ESPN employees.  Are you going to bring in Bill Simmons too?

COMMISH:  No Brent, though I really like Bill's writing, I think he comes across a bit grating as a broadcaster.  He should stick to the scribe role.  

BRENT: Thank you Commissioner.  And next year consider replacing Coach Holtz, I think it would be for the best.  

(back to the studio)

RECE:  So Mark, what do you think?

MARK: I think it is a very well balanced bracket, and should be a great tournament.  We thought Oklahoma-Ohio State might be a bowl match-up, and that game has to be the marquee game of New Year’s Eve and Day.  But I think all the games will be competitive, except Alabama in the Peach Bowl.  I don’t think any of those teams can oust Alabama.  They can punch their tickets for the San Antonio Semi-Finals right now in Tuscaloosa. 

LOU: Well, I am just shocked that the tournament committee placed Iowa, the team that earned a top six seed, into the First Round.  The system determined that Iowa was in the top six, yet the committee placed them seventh, just because they wanted a Michigan State-Stanford Rose Bowl I bet.  I feel so sorry for the Iowa team, the coaches, and the fans.

MARK: Coach, I thought what the Commissioner said made a lot of sense.   It was razor close between Stanford and Iowa, and I agree with him about Michigan State.  If Iowa and Ohio State make the top six, the Spartans have to play one of them in the Bowl game, and that is not fair to them, having to play a team it just beat again.  They did the right thing.

RECE: So let’s make some predictions. Mark, give me some teams that you think could go all the way.

MARK: Rece, I think the conversation begins and ends with Alabama.  I think this is their year, and Nick Saban will take home the trophy.  Possible dark horses for me have to be on the other side of the bracket from Alabama.  So I think Ohio State has the tools to win it all, watch out for Urban Meyer.  And if we were to predict a decade ago, which Pac-12 would be in four straight Rose Bowl, and win three straight, and now be in their fifth of the last six Rose Bowls, who would have guessed Stanford?  They were in three straight Final Fours and a National Championship runner-up, you always have to take Stanford seriously, even if they play Alabama.

RECE: And their only loss in that span of four straight Rose Bowls was to Michigan State.  Well, the Cardinal get a rematch.

LOU:  You know, no one is talking Clemson.  By golly, they are undefeated, number one seed.  I see Clemson as a top seed, with a chip on their shoulder, with no repect.  And that is a dangerous combination.  As a dark horse, I like Notre Dame.  They barely, barely lost to Clemson and Stanford, both games on the road.  But now Notre Dame has no more road games!  They get to play TCU in Chicago.  So, I think the Irish can really shake things up.  

MARK: That Notre Dame-TCU game should be very interesting, it can go so many ways.  Also, don’t forget the tenth seed Houston.  Every year we tend to dismiss them, but two years ago, Central Florida in that slot came within one point of Mizzou, and last year tenth seed Boise State made it to Football’s Final Four.  So, watch out for Houston.

RECE: Another thing about Houston, they are the only team of the ten that has not recently been in the tournament.   This is a year with a lot of schools with recent tournament experience.  Alabama is in their fifth consecutive tournament, leading the way for longest current streak. I think that is why it seems quite unpredictable, with a lot of potential champions.   

So let's look at the brackets one more time:

FINAL TOURNAMENT MATCH-UPS!:

FIRST ROUND:

In Shreveport, LA:
7 Iowa
10 Houston

In Chicago:
8 Notre Dame
9 Texas Christian
 
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Orange: 
1 Clemson
TCU/Iowa/Houston
 
Sugar: 
4 Oklahoma
5 Ohio State

Peach: 
2 AlabamaNotre Dame/Iowa/Houston

Rose:
3 Michigan State 
6 Stanford


SEMI-FINALS in San Antonio

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BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Glendale, Arizona

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BCS National Championship: Texas Christian soldiers onward, defeats Oregon 45-33 to take crown

After traveling to Pasadena to beat Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, and then defeating Alabama in Atlanta, Texas Christian was able to keep it local for the National Championship game.  About 20 miles from campus, the Horned Frogs hopped down to Arlington for the Championship game at AT&T Stadium.

But Oregon’s offense also showed up in Texas, behind Heisman winner Marcus Mariota at quarterback.  With the elements of both Mariota and TCU QB Trevone Boykin, an explosive reaction took place for a Championship full of fireworks.

Oregon started the scoring with a field goal, but TCU answered on the ensuing kickoff with a 98 yard return for touchdown by Ranthony Texada that sent the Horned Frogs fans bursting into pandemonium.  Mariota marched the Ducks right back down the field, and threw an 18-yard TD pass to Byron Marshall, as Oregon took a 9-7 lead after a failed extra point.  Then Boykin drove the Horned Frogs down the field for a 42 yard Jaden Oberkrom field goal , and TCU re-took a 1 point lead.  The first frame wasn’t even over yet when Mariota hit Devon Allen for a 9-yard TD pass and Oregon was up 16-10.

But the Horned Frogs had a corner on all the second quarter scoring, on a 17 yard TD pass from Boykin to Josh Doctson, followed by a Boykin TD run from 2 yards out, and the Fort Worth fans cheered TCU into the locker room with a 24-16 lead.

The Horned Frogs continued to jump on the Ducks and the cheering continued as Boykin hit Desmon White for a 71 yard TD pass play to further extend the TCU margin.   The third quarter scoring continued as TCU added two touchdowns and Oregon added a TD and field goal, and the Frogs held a 45-26 lead going into the final 15 minute frame.

Mariota ran in another Duck TD in the fourth but it was too little too late, as #5 seed Texas Christian held off a game Duck team, winning the National Championship 45-33.  


FINAL TOURNAMENT RESULTS!:

FIRST ROUND:

In Salt Lake City:
7 Mississippi State 34
10 Boise State 35

In Detroit:
8 Michigan State 20
9 Mississippi 3
 
BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Sugar: 
1 Alabama 35
8 Michigan State 34
 
Rose: 
4 Ohio State 28
5 Texas Christian 42

Orange: 
2 Florida State 20
10 Boise State 30

Fiesta:
3 Oregon 60  
6 Baylor 41


SEMI-FINALS in Atlanta

1 Alabama 20 
5 Texas Christian 28

3 Oregon 20
10 Boise State 15
 
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP in Arlington, Texas

3 Oregon 33
5 Texas Christian 45

Atlanta Semi-Finals: Extreme tourney make-over; #1 and #10 seeds go down as TCU and Oregon advance to the Championship Game

Game 1: #5 Texas Christian 28, #1 Alabama 20

Alabama rolled in from Tuscaloosa to nearby  Atlanta, and racked up many more yards than Texas Christian, but the Horned Frogs turned big plays into points, and advanced to the Championship Game.

Alabama scored first on Adam Griffith’s 27 yard field goal mid-way through the first quarter.  But TCU struck pay dirt as Trevone Boykin hit wide open RB Aaron Green on an 80-yard TD pass play, and the Horned Frogs grabbed the lead, 7-3.

Early in the second frame, Blake Sims answered for the Tide, and hit Kenyan Drake on a 25 yard touchdown pass, and Bama grabbed the lead back.  However, TCU defensive back Chris Hackett’s 69 yard interception return for a diving to the pylon TD mid-way through the second quarter gave TCU a 14-10 halftime lead.

The Tide came out rolling in the second half, as Blake Sims scored from 3-yards out to give the lead back to Alabama with 6 minutes left in the third.  A 43-yard Griffith field goal in the early moments of the fourth put Bama up 20-14, and tide seemed to favor a Nick Saban win.

But a crazy play midway through the fourth turned the tide for TCU.  Horned Frog QB was sacked, fumbled, and Alabama recover, and ran the fumble to near the TCU 20, as it looked like Bama would be in control.  But the Bama defender fumbled, and Boykin recovered.  It was a 29 yard loss, but TCU had the ball back.  Another big play ensued, as Boykin hit Deante' Gray for a 70 yard pass down to the three-yard line, and two plays later, Green plowed in for a touchdown.  Instead of scoring a touchdown or field goal to extend a lead, the Tide found themselves down 21-20 with six minutes remaining.

The Horned Frogs were not done as TCU’s Trevorris Johnson scored on a 28-yard touchdown run, and lead 28-20 with just under four minutes remaining.  Alabama never seriously threaten, and Texas Christian advanced.   Home cooking awaits as Fort Worth’s TCU will vie for the championship in the palatial home of the Dallas Cowboys in Irving, Texas.

Game 2: #3 Oregon 20, #10 Boise State 15 

Game two was featured Heisman winner quarterback Marcus Mariota versus the always interesting Boise State Broncos, back again at Football’s Final Four.  At first, it seemed like it would be a Duck scorefest, as Oregon took the opening drive straight down the field, capped with a Keanon Lowe TD on a 7 yard pass from Mariota, and expectation of a game that would short out the electronics of the score board seemed perfectly reasonable.    However, most of the first half involved an aggressive Oregon defense forcing turnovers, but also Oregon offense forced mainly to punt, unable to take advantage.  With less than a minute in the half remaining, Oregon finally scored again on an Aidan Schneider 26 yard field goal, and the Ducks held the 10-0 halftime lead.

The halftime instructions must have been persuasive in the Oregon lockeroom, on both sides of the ball.  A Boise State interception lead to a Byron Marshall 70 yard TD reception from Mariota, then a Bronco fumble on their next drive resulted in a Schneider 23 yard field goal, and voila, Ducks were in control 20-0.

The Ducks offense resumed its punt resulting drives, in addition to one Mariota interception, but generally the Broncos could not capitalize.  Finally, the Boise State broke the goose egg on the scoreboard, and Jay Ajayi finished the third quarter with a 9 yard TD scamper, and Boise State’s two point conversion brought the game to 20-8 entering the final frame. 

Boise could not close the gap until the end of the fourth quarter though.  On their final drive of the game, the Broncos finally showed their offensive prowess on a stellar movement down the field, and Grant Hedrick masterfully passed BSU to scoring position.  Ajayi scored from 1 yard out with 28 seconds to play, and the score was 20-15.  However, Oregon easily recovered the onside kick, and advanced to the Championship Game.