Stanford stunned and falls from projections, but could re-surface as dangerous opponent to top seeds

For a while, it looked like Auburn would be the team to fall out of the projections, but their "look what I found" miracle TD keeps the Tigers in the projections.  So that kooky play keeps Auburn burning up the standings, now up to #6.  But, their Bama game will determine whether their upward mobility continues.

It was the end of Saturday's upset of Stanford that shook up the projections.  Missouri sneaks back in, but do not count out the Cardinal!  They are the first team looking in, and if they end up in the First Round, a #1 or #2 would not want to meet them with Stanford trying to make a fourth straight Final Four.

And it seemed like Oregon was going to cruise into the tourney as an at-large, while Stanford would continue to do all of the heavy conference tourney heavy lifting.  Now, Oregon is back to the conference title game probably, and the increased risk of picking up loss #2.

Now, Clemson is in the position of trying to win out and avoid a conference championship, yet still make the tourney, maybe the top 6.


So, here are the projections!

First Round:

In Jacksonville:

#7 Clemson (at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (AAC) 

 

In Las Vegas:

#8 Missouri (at-large) versus #9 Fresno State (automatic non-AQ) 

 

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl:

#1 Alabama (SEC) versus Fresno State or Clemson/UCF winner

Fiesta Bowl:

#4 Baylor (Big XII) versus #5 Oregon (Pac-12)

Orange Bowl:

#2 Florida State (ACC) versus UCF or Missouri/Fresno State winner

 

Rose Bowl:

#3 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus #6 Auburn (at-large) 

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena

 

Finally some clarity, and a Bo Jackson like jump by Auburn into the projected brackets

With Stanford's win over Oregon, and Baylor's "how do you like me now" win over Oklahoma, we have now come to the point that the top of the tournament has solidified.  Sometimes this does not happen until the end of the regular season (like when Alabama and Florida were number 1 and 2 going into the SEC Championship), but the current top six teams are not projected to play one other until the post-season.  So if the top six win out, they will still be the top six seeds in the tourney.

So as of now...

1) Alabama looks to be in position for another easy Sugar Bowl win, so Tide fans probably are starting to buy up Final Four Indy tickets.  Three of the last four seasons, Alabama teams seeded in the top 2 have easily handled Ohio State, West Virginia, and, yes, last season's Florida State team.

2) Florida State solidified a top 2 seed, which is quite valuable, particularly in their home state Orange Bowl. 

3)  Oregon and Clemson are kind of in the nice position that Florida was last year.  A single loss but no need to play a conference championship game.  Like Florida, who handled FSU in their last game in 2012, Clemson and Oregon's at-large "elimination game" may well be against their respective in-state rivals.  But I bet Oregon is pretty much in line for an at-large, although Clemson's South Carolina match-up seems more hazardous.

4) Where did Auburn come from?  They jumped past Clemson and Missouri, to knock the latter Tigers out of the projections.  But Auburn still has 'Bama to deal with.

5) Fresno State is still in line to have geographic advantage in a First Round game, but with the National Championship game in Pasadena, that may help find a location for a First Round game.  See, there is a guideline that teams should not have home state advantage for more than one game.  So are the Bulldogs likely to make it to Pasadena.  Duh, no, but the guideline allows the game to be sent to Las Vegas, and the small venue won't look embarrassingly empty, plus might be a nice draw to bring fans in even from a distance.

So, here are the projections!

First Round:

In Gainesville:

#7 Auburn (at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (AAC) 

 

In Las Vegas:

#8 Clemson (at-large) versus #9 Fresno State (automatic non-AQ) 

 

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl:

#1 Alabama (SEC) versus Clemson/Fresno State

Fiesta Bowl:

#4 Stanford (Pac-12) versus #5 Baylor (Big XII)

Orange Bowl:

#2 Florida State (ACC) versus Auburn/Central Florida winner

 

Rose Bowl:

#3 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus #6 Oregon (at-large) 

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena

No drop-outs, but some scrambling in the next tourney projections

Here is my second projected tourney for 2013-2014:

 

First Round:

In Tampa:

#7 Miami (FL)(at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (American Athletic)  Playing FSU will move the Canes up or send them down and out

 

In Atlanta:

#8 Clemson (at-large) versus #9 Missouri (at-large) Tiger-Battle! Mizzou loses but doesn't drop out?    All of the previous week's SEC losses still left the door open for the at-large.  But, this still could be a slot for either Fresno State or Northern Illinois

 

Quarterfinals:

Sugar Bowl:

#1 Alabama (SEC) versus Clemson, Miami, or Central Florida.  Assumes Alabama will play Missouri in regular season, otherwise Tide plays 8/9 winner.  

 

Rose Bowl:

#4 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus #5 Stanford (at-large)  Big Ten-Pac-12 tradition!  But four straight Roses for Cardinal

 

Fiesta Bowl:

#2 Oregon (ACC) versus Missouri, Miami, or Central Florida... Fiesta would be rooting for Mizzou to deliver a ton of fans

 

Orange Bowl:

#3 Florida State (Pac-12) versus #6 Baylor (Big XII)... FSU  drops a slot and Baylor moves up a bit, with big impact.  FSU would be happy to be #3 Orange, but still will fight to be thrilled with a #2.  The drop from #2 to #3 shows how important the regular season still is, with the difference of potential opponents of those two slots.  And Baylor's rise gets them out of a first round game, so a major improvement. 

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena