The Sporting News Predicts My 2023-2024 College Football Tournament

 Actually, The Sporting News predicted the real bowls, and I took their results for my tournament projections...

Hey Blanche, it is time for the 2023-2024 college football tournament selection show!

Welcome to the 2023-2024 College Football Tournament selection show, sponsored by Buffalo Wild Wings traditional wings with mild sauce.  Now to the ESPN Studios, with Rece Davis, Mark May, and Lou Holtz.

RECE:  Welcome to our College Football Tournament selection show, and welcome to our dear, dear old friends Lou Holtz and Mark May.  

LOU: Rece and Mark, I am so excited to be here, and this tournament is going to be just great.

MARK: I agree coach, we have what I think will be a wide open tournament, with seven Big Five teams that are either undefeated or one loss.  This could be one of the great tournaments that we have ever seen.

RECE: So guys, here is what we know so far.  The wild card hopefuls, as usual, were rooting for all the teams with less losses would win their conference championship games, because otherwise teams like Michigan, Florida State, and Washington would fall into the wild card pool of teams, and knock out teams like Penn State and Missouri from wild card slots.  In the Big Ten, from the end of the last season, Michigan was a slight favorite over Ohio State for conference champion, with Penn State in contention, and things played out exactly that way.  Michigan is automatically qualified, I am going to guess as top seed, and certainly one-loss Ohio State will be a wild card team, and Penn State is in the running for an at-large position.  

In the Pac-12, for the early part of the season USC seemed to be a lock, but Washington, Oregon, and two-time defending champion Utah had their supporters to make tourney runs, and Washington was victorious twice over Oregon to win the conference.  The Huskies look like a two seed, and Oregon is in the mix for a wild card slot.  Washington also looks solid for a Rose Bowl spot to stay on the west coast.

In the ACC, Florida State was a season opening favorite over Clemson, and they remained undefeated to qualify for the tournament.  But the loss of Seminole quarterback Jordan Travis has dampened their national championship resolve.

LOU: But remember Rece, without Jordan Travis, they still were victorious over tough teams like Florida and Louisville, and I thought Louisville would win that game.  So Florida State is dangerous, I tell you.  Their defense can give teams fits.

MARK: And Florida State has a good chance to play in state at the Orange Bowl.  We have had Orange Bowl eras with consecutive Florida State games, then Clemson.  Maybe this starts another FSU Orange Bowl era.

RECE: And most likely, Louisville, is out of the running for a wild card slot, ending yhe season with losses to Kentucky and Florida State.  

In the SEC, Georgia was ranked number one since the end of last season, stayed undefeated until SEC championship, but lost the automatic bid to Alabama.  Now, the wild card teams were rooting for Georgia, but likely a two-loss Alabama team would have taken one of the wild card positions anyway.  This was a different kind of year for the SEC, both Georgia and Alabama are one loss teams, but they both left the door open to upsets in many games compared to previous seasons. And Missouri emerged as a wild card contender, with great excitement because St. Louis is hosting the Semi-Finals.

And in the Big 12, TCU, Kansas State, and Texas all had their time as favorites to win the conference, but for much of the season Oklahoma controlled their destiny.  But Texas took the conference title, and are hoping for a very nice road to the championship, perhaps through New Orleans, through St. Louis, through home state Houston.  Oklahoma has a very outside chance for a wild card.

So the last automatic slot is for the non-Power Five teams.  For part of the season we were looking at Fresno State, then Air Force, but they both faded.  Mark, there was a possible scenario this year that made that for an interesting possibility.  

MARK: Yes, the top ranked conference champion from the Group of Five automatically qualifies, but if two conference champions finish both above a Power Five conference champion and in the top 16, both champions qualify.  So the scenario was that if Oklahoma State won the Big XII, and both Tulane and Liberty finished above the Cowboys. both teams would qualify.  However, Oklahoma State lost, but also Tulane lost, even one-loss Toledo lost, so that leaves Liberty and SMU as the candidates for the last automatic bid.  

RECE: So that is the first big question, who gets the Group of Five bid?

MARK:  I think the strength of schedule of SMU is a big focal point for the American conference, and I think SMU will make it in over Liberty.  

LOU: No, no, no Mark.  The extra qualifier was designed to make sure undefeated teams had a chance.  SMU is a two-loss team, Liberty is undefeated, they are going to make the tournament.

RECE: So now that Georgia has lost, who do we see as top seed coach?

LOU: It is going to be Michigan as top seed.  And this is a different Michigan team than the previous two.  Watch out for them, they have a chip on their shoulder, they are hungry to take down the SEC a peg this year.  

MARK: I agree coach, Michigan at the top, Washington at number two, Florida State third.  But then the real drama, the four one loss teams.  One will be seventh seed and will be assigned a First Round game.  So Texas, Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State, one of those teams will be out of the top six.

RECE:  So coach, who will it be, forced to play a First Round game, of those bluebloods?  

LOU:  Well, Texas beat Alabama, Alabama beat Georgia, so that has to be their order.  It will be Ohio State fourth, then Texas, then Alabama, and Georgia will be seventh seed.  Bulldogs will have to play a First Round game, after two national championships.

MARK:  I agree with coach's sequence but I think it will be Texas fourth, then Alabama, then Georgia, and Ohio State as seventh seed.  

LOU: No way Mark, Ohio State does not fall to seventh.  They were in the top six, they did not lose this past weekend, and they lost their only loss to top seeded Michigan on the road.  No, Ohio State is a top six team.

RECE: So Mark, that leaves two Wild Card spots, with Oregon, Missouri, Penn State, and Oklahoma vying for those slots.  Who is in?

MARK: I think Rece that it will be Oregon and Missouri taking those positions, with a lot of excitement that Mizzou will be fighting for a spot in the St. Louis Semi-Finals.

LOU: No Mark, yes, it will be Oregon, but Penn State will take the last spot.

RECE: Coach, the waiting is over.  It is time to go to Brent Musburger on the field at NRG Stadium in Houston, where this year's championship game will be played. Brent?

BRENT:  You are looking...LIVE at NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas, the site of this season's college football championship game.  Hi there everybody, ten teams will play to win here, and take home the BCS championship trophy. And now, it is time for the Jarrito Loco Mexican Restaurant of Monument, Colorado bracket presentation.

Let's go to tournament Commissioner Nelson, who will reveal this year's tournament.

COMMISIONER: Thank you Brent. It is my yearly pleasure to announce the teams that will be playing in the 2023-2024 BCS College Football Tournament.

In the First Round, in Blacksburg, Virginia, the seventh seed, the Buckeyes of Ohio State University, at-large team of the Big Ten, will play the tenth seed, and champion of the Conference USA conference, the Liberty University Flames.

The other First Round game will be played in Seattle, Washington, where the eighth seed and at-large team of the Pac-12 Conference, the Ducks of the University of Oregon, will take on the ninth seeded Penn State Nittany Lions, at-large team of the Big Ten Conference.

The top four seeds in order will be Michigan playing at the Cotton Bowl, then number two is Washington playing in the Rose Bowl, then number three is Alabama playing in the Sugar Bowl, and lastly number four is Florida State playing in the Orange Bowl.  Due to the number of teams that have played one another among the ten teams, the following table summarizes the opponents based on First Round results.

The winners of the BCS quarterfinals will meet in St. Louis for Football's Final Four, and the winner of the semi-finals will play for the BCS championship, right here, in Houston.

BRENT: Thank you Commissioner, it shapes up to be an extremely balanced tournament. So for the viewers who may be wondering, this season has a lot of contingency brackets, as it were, correct?

COMMISH:  Right Brent.  Our guidance is to avoid regular season rematches in First Round and Bowl game quarterfinals.  Michigan played both Ohio State and Penn State, as did Alabama with both Texas and Georgia.  Therefore, many scenarios are needed to avoid re-matches.

BRENT:  How close was Missouri were to making the tournament?

COMMISH:  Really, the race to the last spot was not that close, Penn State had a solid lead over Missouri and Mississippi, who were virtually tied.

BRENT: Plus I am sure Coach Holtz must know how close it was between Georgia and Ohio State for sixth.

COMMISH: It was pretty close, as were a lot of the seedings this year.  Actually Alabama over Florida State for third seed was the slimmest margin.

BRENT: Lastly, was it close between Liberty and SMU for the last automatic spot?

COMMISH: Liberty was the clear selection for this slot, Iowa was ranked between Liberty and SMU.

BRENT:  Thank you Commissioner, it is going to be a superb tournament.  And now back to Rece at the studio.

(microphones pick up unsuspecting continuing conversation)

BRENT: Good job Commissioner. You did fine.

COMMISH:  Thanks, I wore my largest jacket because I have put on some weight, 2023 has been such a stressful year, with talk of this new twelve team playoff.  

BRENT:  You looked fine.  And a bit of Ozempic will get you back to optimal weight.  

(back to the studio)

RECE: Well, as usual, we have some surprises.  Mark what stands out to you?

MARK:  Immediately, seeing Alabama at #3 was a shock.  Getting the win over former #1 Georgia rewarded the Crimson Tide handsomely.

LOU: No question, they leapfrogged Texas and Florida State.  That was huge.  And Ohio State has to play a First Round game at Virginia Tech to meet Liberty, and if they win, they have to play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  The Buckeyes were given a really tough path this year.  And why does Ohio State slip, they did not lose this past weekend, their only loss was to top ranked Michigan on the road.  Why the fall to seventh?

MARK: Compare that to Georgia.  No First Round game, and likely they will play Washington in the Rose Bowl, and the Huskies have not been dominant during the second half of the season.  I think it is a better path than Ohio State's.  Texas did not get the neighboring state Sugar Bowl, but I think they have a pretty good draw.  They get a Florida State team without their star QB, and they are likely on the other side of the bracket than Alabama and Georgia, and the championship is in Houston.  So good news for the Longhorns.

RECE: Coach, who would not be happy with their draw?  

LOU: I think Washington is happy to get the Rose Bowl, but playing Georgia is not a good reward for being second seed.  So they will be rooting for Penn State to beat Oregon, so they can play Penn State.  But then Michigan would be so unhappy to play Georgia, because they have played both Ohio State and Penn State.  So Michigan will be a huge Oregon fans against Penn State.

MARK: Think about the Oregon-Penn State game in Seattle; there will be Oregon fans, Penn State fans, but a lot of local Husky fans may show up to root for the Nittany Lions, because a PSU win makes them the Washington opponent, whereas Georgia would instead play Michigan.  Some Michigan fans may actually show up in Seattle to root for Oregon.

RECE: So guys, give us your impressions on how the tournament will play out.  Mark?

MARK:  Think about this fellows, eight of the ten tournament team will be either in the SEC or Big Ten next season.  Only Florida State and Liberty will not be part of those two mega-conferences.  So I think this tournament will follow the ghost of SEC future.  I see Georgia, Alabama, and Texas all advancing to St. Louis, and Oregon joining them after upsetting Michigan.

LOU: You are right Mark, five of these teams will be in the Big Ten next season, and I think it will be the ghost of Big Ten future in St. Louis: Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, along with Texas.  Watch out for Ohio State.  They are under the radar, but may be the best team, and win it all.  Ohio State in their current record eleventh straight tournament, with no titles yet. 

MARK:  For me, the team to watch is Oregon.  They also would avoid Alabama and Georgia most likely until a championship game.

RECE: And the team completely under the radar, watch out for a team we normally mention: Penn State. Very quiet, but an interesting path through Oregon and Washington.

Well, guys, thank you so much, we are so ready.  For Lou and Mark, goodnight.