(actually, Stewart and Bruce makes picks for the real bowl games here and here, and I annually transform them into predictions for my playoffs; i.e., if the games turn out like they say, this is how my tournament will play out, for the First Round and BCS Bowl Quarterfinals, at least)
As part of Stewart Mandel's and Bruce Feldman's predictions of all of the bowl games this season, here are his predictions for the tournament's first round and quarterfinals. Over the last four seasons, Stewey (can I call ya Stewey?) has been 19-5 in these games.
When real life expanded to a four team playoff, I like having more real game information for my simulated tournament, but kind of dreaded the idea that my Final Four would be their final four, my championship the same as their championship. But I figured there could be crazy years when anything could happen. And I could end up with the same Final Four, but if there is ever a year where my tourney can go a very different direction, it is this one. A very vulnerable #2 seed, potenentially good #5 and #6 seeds, and dangerous #7 and #9 seeds. I really only count out Boise State and to a lesser degree Michigan State at winning it all. We shall see! Let the games begin!
First Round - Salt Lake City: #7 Mississippi State versus #10 Boise State
On the surface, it would seem as if the Bulldogs were given quite a challenge. Go out to Utah to play always dangerous Boise State, then if they win, play Florida State in Miami. Inconvenient, yes; but actually this MSU has quite a nice path to the Football's Final Four. For one thing, this is not your older brother's Boise State, that beat Oklahoma and Ohio State in 2006, or Cincinnati and Texas on the was to the championship game in 2009, or that lost a four overtime thriller to West Virginia in Pittsburgh in 2011. Mississippi State may be cold in Salt Lake, but there three hours of being chilled will leave them with a trip to Miami and Florida State, the most vulnerable top two seed I can remember since BYU in 1985.
Stewart Mandel's pick: Mississippi State 47, Boise State 24
Bruce Feldman's pick: Mississippi State 45, Boise State 27
My pick: Mississippi State
First Round - Detroit: #8 Michigan State versus #9 Mississippi
Despite an impressive win last year to break Stanford's three year Rose Bowl win streak after not being in the tournament for about a generation, no one is talking about Michigan State this season. Because although they get a boost playing Ole Miss in Detroit, even winning would send them to play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, not as promising as playing Florida State. Bama generally takes care of business in the tournament, so Michigan State seems at best a one (win) and done. Even the Rebels get more respect, as the first tournament team in history to be an at-large with three losses. Why? Because they are 3-0 against other tournament teams (Bama, Miss State, Boise), and could even give the Tide a bit nervous. And possibly Mississippi can avoid Alabama if Boise State were to pull off a shocker. The tournament wants a Michigan State win so no Alabama-Mississippi Sugar Bowl, but they won't be that lucky.
Stewart Mandel's pick: Michigan State 29, Mississippi 27
Bruce Feldman's pick: Michigan State 19, Mississippi 17
My pick: Mississippi
Sugar Bowl: #1 Alabama versus Michigan State or Mississippi (Possibly Boise State)
Alabama may not have chalked up a lot of titles, but over their last four tournament appearances, they are 7-3. And that is against the best college football has to offer. Compare to Stanford's recent four year run (5-4) and Oregon's (4-4), and you appreciate the Tide's success. They clean up at the Sugar Bowl, and should once again.
Stewart Mandel's pick: Alabama 31, Michigan State 19
Bruce Feldman's pick: Alabama 37, Michigan State 26
My pick: Alabama over Mississippi
Rose Bowl: #4 Ohio State versus #5 Texas Christian
Back in 2010-2011 during the Tressel era, the #6 Buckeyes beat the #3 Horned Frogs and Andy Dalton in a 31-30 thriller. Four years later, it is time for payback. Both teams are dangerous, and this could be a dandy unless Cardale Jones falters in his second big game. TCU wants their first tourney win, especially since the championship game in 20 miles from campus. It can go either way, but it seems like TCU's turn.
Stewart Mandel's pick: Texas Christian 25, Ohio State 20
Bruce Feldman's pick: Texas Christian 33, Ohio State 27
My pick: Texas Christian
Orange Bowl: #2 Florida State versus Mississippi State (possibly Mississippi or Boise State)
Teams love being on this side of the bracket because no Alabama over here and a very vulnerable second seeded Seminoles. Stewart and Bruce like FSU more than I do.
Stewart Mandel's pick: Mississippi State over Florida State in 3 OTs
Bruce Feldman's pick: Florida State over Mississippi State in 1 OT
My pick: Mississippi State
Fiesta Bowl: #3 Oregon versus #6 Baylor
Baylor's offense is scary but last season as sixth seed, they had a bit of flop sweat losing to Alabama in the Fiesta in an ugly game, when their idea of pass defense was holding receivers and getting penalties rather than possible completed passes. But Baylor remains dangerous, especially against a Duck team with a history of its own flop sweat. I just think Oregon will be too explosive and be able to answer any Bears run.
Stewart Mandel's pick: Oregon over Baylor in 1 OT
Bruce Feldman's pick: Baylor 37, Oregon 35
My pick: Oregon
SEMI-FINALS:
Stewart Mandel: Alabama vs TCU; Mississippi State vs Oregon
Bruce Feldman: Alabama vs TCU; Florida State vs Baylor
My picks: TCU over Alabama; Oregon over Mississippi State (TCU over Oregon in the championship)
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