Three BCS projections give the nod to Arkansas and Boise State as the last two teams into my tourney

Yes, the rest of the "sane" BCS world is fixated on the battle for number two between Oklahoma State and Alabama. In fact, two of the sites that I rely upon to provide unofficial BCS projections say that Oklahoma State will get number two, so I can also read some Alabama fans hatred at the speculation in the comments sections. Wow, a little intense fellas, why don't you go out and poison some trees. Come on Tide, you had your chance AT HOME, in the current system of every week matters, OSU deserves their chance.

And I don't know the methodology of the projections, but I think it should be more probabilistic than "OSU is number 2" or "Bama made it in." As a statistician, I guess I think it should be simulation based, and OSU has x probability, et cetera. We don't know how people will vote, but we can make assumptions and simulate it.

But in my world, the Cowboys and Tide are comfortably into my tournament, and the drama surrounds whether TCU make the top 16 and get in, and based on the projections, it appears they will not. Then, in addition to Stanford and Alabama, who will get the last two at-large berths? All three projections indicate that Boise State and Arkansas will be the last two teams into the tournament. Kansas State seems to be the team that will be on the outside, and wishing I had a two team per conference limit.

Here are three tournament projections based on BCS projections. Note in the first, the Sugar will be feverishly trying to get the Rose to swap games.

PROJECTION #1: bcsguru.com

First Round:

Pittsburgh: #7 Arkansas (at-large) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Green Bay: #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #9 Clemson (ACC Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Wisconsin/Clemson winner

Sugar (or Rose): #4 Stanford (at large) versus #6 Boise State (at-large)

Fiesta: #2 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus Arkansas/West Virginia winner

Rose (or Sugar): #3 Alabama (at-large) versus #5 Oregon (Pac-12 winner)


Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans
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PROJECTION #2: bcsknowhow.com

First Round:

Seattle: #7 Oregon (Pac-12 winner) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Green Bay: #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #9 Clemson (ACC Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Wisconsin/Clemson winner

Rose: #4 Stanford (at large) versus #6 Arkansas (at-large)

Fiesta: #2 Oklahoma State (Big XII winner) versus Oregon/West Virginia winner

Sugar: #3 Alabama (at-large) versus #5 Boise State (at-large)


Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans

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PROJECTION #3: http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/bcs

First Round:

Seattle: #7 Oregon (Pac-12 winner) versus #10 West Virginia (Big East Champ)

Green Bay: #8 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) versus #9 Clemson (ACC Champ)

Bowl Quarterfinals:

Orange: #1 Louisiana State (SEC champ) versus Wisconsin/Clemson winner

Rose: #4 Stanford (at large) versus #5 Arkansas (at-large)

Sugar: #2 Alabama (at-large) versus Oregon/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #3 Oklahoma State (Big XII champ) versus #6 Boise State (at-large)


Semi-Finals (Football's Final Four) in St. Louis

National Championship in New Orleans