Thanksgiving weekend will feature a cornucopia of games that will go a long way to decide the participants and seedings of my ten-team tourney. What fun! And the menu of games will start a series dominoes that will fall, starting slowly and building up to a full-fledged clatter by Saturday.
So based on the latest info, here is the projected tourney:
FIRST ROUND:
In Oakland:
7 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
10 Rutgers (Big East Champ)
In Atlanta:
8 Florida State (ACC champ)
9 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)
BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Rose:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Florida State/Nebraska winner
Orange:
4 Oregon (at large)
6 LSU (at large)
Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Stanford/Rutgers winner
Fiesta:
3 Florida (at large)
5 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)
Semi-finals in Arlington, TX
Championship in Miami
And these teams, going into the weekend, hoping for a shot at the tourney:
SEC champ game loser (at-large)
LSU (at-large or SEC champ)
Texas A & M (at-large)
South Carolina (at-large)
Clemson (at-large; UPDATE; eliminated with loss to South Carolina)
Oklahoma (at-large or Big XII champ)
Oregon State (at-large: UPDATE; eliminated with loss to Oregon)
Texas (at-large: UPDATE; eliminated with loss to TCU)
Georgia Tech (ACC champ)
UCLA (Pac 12 champ)
Wisconsin (Big Ten champ)
Michigan (Big Ten champ UPDATE; eliminated by Nebraska win)
Louisville (Big East champ)
WEEKEND UPDATES:
Domino 1: Longhorns longshot chance dashed (21 teams left)
Texas was hoping for a splashy win to end the season at K-State to be a two-loss team and either end up with second place in Big XII or be in a four-way tie at the top. Oh yeah, the Longhorns would need to defeat TCU at home. Well, for the first time in years, TCU is not a factor to get into the tournament, but they still rose up to beat Texas and send the Longhorns waiting until next year. Post Thanksgiving, 21 teams still left for ten tourney slots.
Domino 2: Nebraska's win eliminates Michigan; Big Ten hope for respectability lives another week (20 teams left)
Iowa provided an upset scare. Sure, Nebraska was scared, but Michigan still could have lost to Ohio State to send the Huskers to Indy for the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin. But the real scare was at conference headquarters, who hope Nebraska can maintain a bit of respectability by being a two-loss, non #10 seed representative to the tournament, plus sell some tickets in Indy. Plus, the tournament committee did not look forward to Michigan making the tourney since they and Stanford both played Notre Dame, and UM might cause challenges due to the "avoid regular season re-matches" guidelines. But Husker win makes all well, removes OSU-Michigan as a domino game, and brings Nebraska a step closer to a return to the tournament in which it once was omnipresent.
Domino 3: LSU remains atop at-large bubble with wobbly win at Arkansas
LSU went into this game as perhaps the last team into the tournament as third of three at-large teams. Arkansas showed signs of being the team that during pre-season was considered a contender for either an at-large team or possibly SEC champ, but in the end, a few questionable 4th down decisions resulted in a stumble like a Bobby Petrino biking day trip. On one hand, LSU may have solidified their slot, or opened things up for Clemson, South Carolina, or Texas A & M to leap frog them. Time will tell, but for now, LSU is in the hunt.
Domino 4: Georgia extinguishes Tech upset thoughts early
Georgia and GTU's propensity to ruin each other's seasons (e.g., three seasons ago, Georgia's win demoted Tech from top six seed to 9th seed and loss to Ohio State in Cincy. But this year's impressive Bulldog win solidifies their chances. Although they want to take the SEC title, this win helps if they lose and need to grab an at-large bid
Dominoes 5 and 6: Big East leaders take one on the chin; Tenth seed is in their grasp
Sigh. Rutgers could have sewed up a Big East bid with a win and a Louisville loss, but Rutgers never was in the game. Louisville dramatically brought it to OT, only to lose at home anyway. Sigh. Lots of scenarios, but it just seems like Thursday's Rutgers-Louisville winner gets the tenth seed. If one of them is willing to win.
Domino 7: Oregon sends Oregon State's at-large bid packing (19 teams left)
It looked interesting at first, but the Ducks pulled away, and seems so have locked up tournament security with a big win. They seem certain for one of the at-large bids, but may have to play in the Pac-12 championship if UCLA wins. So it looks like Oregon in, Oregon State out.
Domino 8: Alabama-Auburn, no drama expected, none delivered
Yeah, there were a lot of scenarios if Alabama lost, but that was never a real option. They are in SEC finals, but they cannot be guarantee an at-large birth if they lose to Georgia because one-loss teams are starting to circle at-large bids.
Domino 9: Florida's surges to solidify at-large hopes, FSU's ACC opportunity awaits
This has been a game in the tourney's sites for weeks. A big hurdle for Florida's hope of an at-large bid and top four seed, and Florida State's chance to jump into the top six seeds and avoid a First Round game. Turnovers left home Seminole fans shaking their heads early, but although seeming in control, the Gators found themselves behind as FSU put up a 17-0 third quarter. Florida responded to pull out an easy win, and will grab an at-large bid and top four seed
Domino 10: Oklahoma's bedlam win leaves them in the hunt
Oklahoma seemed to grab big leads, and then the Sooners would tie it up. The OSU up again, on and on. It looked like the Cowboys would prevail to officially send KState to the tourney, and send OU home eliminated. But Oklahoma avoided tourney elimination, winning 51-48 in OT. Some help from Texas would help give Oklahoma a Big XII bid.
Domino 11: Stanford dashes the hopes of at-large dreamers everywhere
Once Florida and Oregon won, teams from across the country became UCLA fans. A UCLA win would send Oregon to the Pac-12 championship game and potentially keep the Ducks from grabbing one of what is anticipated to be three at-large slots. A Stanford win would seem to guarantee two of the three slots would be owned by Gators and Ducks. But the Cardinal prevailed, hoping to win conference and rise up to a sixth seed. But UCLA gets another chance against the Cardinal next week, and if coach Mora can use his NFL experience of within-season home and home adjustments, maybe UCLA will find a way into the tourney.
Domino 12: South Carolina completes day of SEC dominance over ACC; Clemson at-large bid is denied (18 teams left)
This has been another game in the tourney's sites for weeks. Clemson couldn't win the ACC, but hoped a one-loss season would have sent them to the tourney with the last of three at-large golden tickets. The day's events seem to make South Carolina's at-large hopes slim, but this USC won a back and forth contest with some drama, until the last minutes.
Domino 13: Texas A & M does their part to stay in at-large contention
The Aggies were heavily favored versus Mizzou, but an impressive performance will keep them in the at-large discussion. So if Oregon and Florida have two of three at-large slots, the SEC loser of Alabama-Georgia, LSU, Texas A & M, Clemson/South Carolina winner, and Oklahoma can all make a case for slot number three.
Domino 14: USC scaring Notre Dame and the tourney committee
Notre Dame lead throughout, but SC staying close had people nervous. Could a loss still keep ND in the hunt? The appeal of #1 ND with a nice road to Cowboys Stadium for the Semi-Finals had the tournament committee pacing nervously in their wood paneled luxurious board room. Notre Dame prevails, and #1 tourney seed awaits.
SOOOO....the weekend started with 22 teams with tournament dreams, and 18 remain.
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