In my tournament world, I am denoting next weekend’s college football slate, the “wacky weekend,” because it seems like the current house of cards of teams involved can be completely flattened by a schedule full to the brim with impactful games.
And the wackiness started as the tournament with this nice structure going into last weekend: K-State in the Fiesta, Oregon in the Rose, Alabama in the Sugar, Notre Dame in the Orange; and was completely sideswiped by the losses to the top two teams. So right now, SEC champ goes to the Sugar, maybe, and after that, who knows? And the tough hurdles for last week's top two were supposed to be Texas and Oregon State, opponents still out there to possibly shake this up some more.
The immediate impact of last night’s losses was the elevation of Notre Dame from #3 and most likely a bowl game against an SEC team, to now, #1, with teams like Florida State, Nebraska, Louisville as opponents, or if things get even more loopy, teams like Miami and UCLA. Before last night, it looked like the SEC would have lots of teams in the tourney but would have to fight for the title from seeds of #4+. Now they look to have a shot back for a top two seed, but Oregon’s possible devaluation to an at-large team may knock out teams like LSU, Texas A & M, even a victorious Clemson from the tournament. Before last night, LSU seemed like a shoe-in at-large. Now they may have to wait to see how far down the SEC champ game loser falls, however there are many more possibilities too, including Florida and Oregon losing this week, that can shake up the at-large race.
And, I am sure the BCS feels the same way, a system to take the top teams and put them together now often includes automatic qualifying conference champs from outside the top ten. As of now, only two conferences have teams that control their own destiny within the top six, Bama/Georgia and KState. Florida State, Stanford, Nebraska, and Louisville/Rutgers could provide two First Round games full of four conference champs. That was not the design for the BCS, but I actually don’t mind these teams having to “play-in” for the chance to be fodder for the top two seeds.
So here are upcoming games and their story lines in this reality show of a ten-team college football tournament:
1) Notre Dame at USC: In the realm of meaningfulness, this game has more meaning in the current system than my hypothetical tournament, but not much more. ND may be in my tourney win or lose, but the chance to be #1, play an opponent from the outside the top 10, the conference champions that seem like they will be out there, would seem big motivation. A loss could even drop them to a #7 to #10 seed and a First Round game. Yes, the Irish would want to win this game even in my tourney scenario.
2) Alabama/Auburn, Georgia/Georgia Tech, and the SEC championship. The only flaw in the situation of the Bama/Georgia winner being #2 (or #1) seed is the Ramblin’ Wreck. Seems like every season, whether it be UG or Tech is riding high, the rival bursts their bubble in this game. Also, come on Auburn, who you going to get to coach against Saban in-state that can say they won a national title with Cam Newton? Face it Auburn, until Saban leaves, you will be playing the margins of football success; let the guy stay unless Urban Meyer wants to move to War Eagle Land.
3) Florida at Florida State: This game has been on the map forever, as it could be an elimination game for Florida that could raise FSU into the top six to avoid a First Round game. Now, it seems like a Gator win gives them a top three seed and bumps the Seminoles further down the road to a First Round game
4) Big 12 drama. K-State hosting Texas in two weeks was supposed to be the Wildcats hurdle to undefeated-ness until the ghost of RG III showed up in Waco. Now, a Texas win can knock KSU out of the tourney, although an Oklahoma loss to Oklahoma State might mean a four-way Big 12 tie at the top. In simplest terms, KState can win at home and earn a top five tourney seed. Otherwise, potentially another type of Big 12 bedlam will reign.
5) Oregon at Oregon State plus other Pac-12 fun: Which Ducks team will show up? The one the dominated lesser foes in a back-loaded schedule, or one with the wind out of its sails? So many odd situations in the Pac-12; Oregon can be an at-large team, ripping a spot away from the throngs of awaiting SEC teams, or get the chance to play UCLA for a Pac-12 automatic slot. In any case, two current longest active strings, Oregon’s run of three straight tournaments and Stanford’s two straight Final Fours, are still alive and controlled by their own destiny, and also hanging on a thin, teeny string.
6) Clemson hosting South Carolina. Again, both teams thought a win would propel them into at-large contention if not lock up a slot, but now that Oregon may occupy an at-large slot, the winner of this game needs to root for Oregon to take the Pac-12, Florida to lose, the SEC champ game loser to look terrible; anything that can open a spot for either a one-loss Tiger team trying to redeem its embarrassing First Round loss to Wisconsin last season or a two-loss South Carolina team trying to make the big tourney party. Those three SEC-ACC match-ups of FL-FSU, UGA-GT, and this one all have big tourney implications, with basically every team rooting for themselves and the ACC to win, no matter what conference they are from.
So right now, the top five seeds look to be:
1) Notre Dame, Independent AQ
2) Alabama/Georgia winner (unless Georgia loses to GTU before beating the Tide), SEC champ
3) Florida, at-large
4) Kansas State, Big 12 champ
5) Oregon, at-large
With these teams looking for an at-large spot: SEC champ game loser, LSU, Texas A & M, South Carolina, Clemson, Oklahoma, Texas.
And these teams looking at conference automatics: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Stanford, UCLA, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, Louisville, Rutgers.
And this season will have no teams qualify automatically from outside the six AQ conferences, and probably not as an at-large team like Boise State last year, but give a shout out to the MAC. Yes, this years contenders for the title have flaws. Kent State lost to Kentucky but beat Rutgers. Northern Illinois lost by 1 to Iowa but beat Kansas. Throw in Ohio U’s win at Penn State and other signature wins, and the MAC deserves a seat at the table in the kooky crazy season. But MAC, you had a great season, and I will save some stuffing for you.
So if I must project my tournament, and I feel like it is carved in sand, here it is, as of now:
FIRST ROUND:
In Atlanta:
7 Florida State (ACC champ)
10 Louisville (Big East Champ)
In Pasadena:
8 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
9 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)
BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Nebraska, else if Stanford wins, the Florida State/Louisville winner
Orange:
4 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)
6 LSU (at large)
Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Florida State/Louisville winner unless Stanford wins
Rose:
3 Florida (at large)
5 Oregon (at large)
Semi-finals in Arlington, TX
Championship in Miami
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