At one time, I thought my tournament’s main issue would be
SEC overload. Or overdose, as the case
may be. Early in the season, having five
SEC teams, the champ plus all four at-large’s, seemed not only possible, but
likely. But Notre Dame’s emergence as an
independent that was likely to be an automatic qualifier seemed to reduce the
number to four SEC teams, with one less at-large spot available. The Oregon’s recent loss lowered their
conference standing, so that they might take an at-large spot, and it seemed
like three SEC teams would be included.
Now, a threat from an unanticipated source may reduce the SEC footprint
to two teams.
And it had all seemed so clear over the past weekend. The tourney would be the six conference
champs, Notre Dame also qualifying, and three remaining slots for at-large
teams. Florida and Oregon earned two of
those slots certainly with solid victories on Saturday over ranked foes. That left the seeming drama at, who would be
the final at-large? SEC champ game
loser, LSU, Texas A & M, South Carolina, maybe even Oklahoma?
Well, now with lots of losses from #10 to #25 in the
standings (#10 Florida State, #11 Clemson, #15 Oregon State, #16 Texas, #17
UCLA, #18 Rutgers, #19 Michigan, #21 Oklahoma State, #20 Louisville, #24
Arizona and #25 Washington), out of nowhere, MAC conference champ contenders
like Kent State and Northern Illinois are threatening to hit the top 16 to earn
a bid. I had a weekend with 23
tournament contenders, weeded out only four to get to 19, and now I have to add
two more back into the equation.
The effect of this potential emergence of another conference
champion to the ten team tourney is:
-SEC championship game changes dramatically from, “lose and
you still have at-large shot” to “win or go home (or go to non-tourney bowl).”
-Right now, a Nebraska/Florida State match-up seems in the
cards, but Kent/NIU entering the picture would have these teams playing the MAC
champ and the Big East champ instead.
-A Pac-12 win might raise Stanford to the top six and demote
the last at-large to seventh seed. It
seemed like the seventh seed team would be the only real threat to the top two
seed (aka, seeds eight to ten would not be able to beat a top two seed), and
when that was Stanford, that was good for the Irish. The guidelines to avoid rematches meant
Alabama or Georgia would meet the Cardinal
When seventh seed seemed to be the spot for the SEC champ game loser,
LSU, Texas A & M, or South Carolina, then it looked like these teams might
face the Irish if they already played the SEC champ. Now, ND might face the winner of Flor/Kent
State
-Have to scout locations for games if Kent or NIU would end
up with the “geographic advantage” (most likely created if Wisconsin beats
Nebraska and is seeded lower than these MAC teams).
Kent and Browns Stadium would fit, NIU at Soldier Field.
-Already people are pointing out Kent’s big loss to
Kentucky. But they did beat Rutgers, who
may also make the big party. And the
main thing is the entire MAC body of work, starting with Ohio’s win at Penn
State, that justifies the MAC deserves a shot.
In real life, they take up a BCS Bowl berth, in my little pretend world,
they would play in a First Round game. I
think they deserve the opportunity.
So this week, we can look forward to answers to these
questions:
-SEC championship will determine the second seed
-Rutgers versus Louisville, Pac-12 championship, ACC
championship, Big Ten championship
-The MAC Championship, and whether the winner will make it
into the top 16 to qualify for the tourney
-If the MAC champ cannot break in, will the team that loses SEC
championship fall below LSU for the last at-large?
-Can above Stanford Pac-12 win push them LSU or the SEC
loser to make the top six and avoid the First Round games?
Here are two scenarios, assuming the SEC loser is
approximately the same ranking as LSU, one without Kent State in the top 16,
and one where the Flashes make it:
FIRST ROUND:
In Oakland:
7 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
10 Rutgers (Big East Champ)
In Kansas City:
8 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)
9 Florida State (ACC champ)
BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Rose:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Nebraska/Florida State winner
Orange:
4 Oregon (at large)
6 LSU (at large)
Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Stanford/Rutgers winner
Fiesta:
3 Florida (at large)
5 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)
Semi-finals in Arlington, TX
Championship in Miami
OR
FIRST ROUND:
In Kansas City:
7 Nebraska (Big Ten champ)
10 Rutgers (Big East Champ)
In Atlanta:
8 Florida State (ACC champ)
9 Kent State (MAC champ)
BOWLS (Quarterfinals):
Fiesta:
1 Notre Dame (AQ Independent)
Florida State/Kent State winner
Orange:
4 Oregon (at large)
5 Kansas State (Big 12 champ)
Sugar:
2 Alabama (SEC champ)
Nebraska/Rutgers winner
Rose:
3 Florida (at large)
6 Stanford (Pac 12 champ)
Semi-finals in Arlington, TX
Championship in Miami
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