The Carrier Dome in Syracuse is set to host Football's Final Four on Saturday January 16th. One interesting thing I learned about the Carrier Dome is that it is not air conditioned even though its corporate sponsor is a cooling company. Remind me not to attend any early season Orange games there, while sitting next to a perspiring shirtless guy covered in orange face and body paint. But air conditioning would be the least of their worries this time of year, although I think it would be a pretty hot ticket. Although a long way from 'Bama, Gainesville, Austin, and Boise, I think each team would send a good deal of fans, as they are all known to "travel well."
Other things I learned about Syracuse U? They have a satellite campus in, ... Los Angeles? I bet they started that to try to steal more recruits from UCLA ("Yeah, and off season you can 'study' at our Los Angeles satellite campus"). Also, before they were Orange or Orangemen, Syracuse was the "Saltine Warriors." I bet they changed it just to avoid obvious sport section headlines ("Saltine Warriors Crumble"). I wonder if the Indiana State "Fighting Teachers" ever played the Syracuse Saltine Warriors.
My results for the first round and BCS bowl quarterfinals are based on actual performances of the teams. The results for the semi-finals and finals will be based on probability of winning that I calculated using computer ratings, and how teams varied from their computer ratings in the non-BCS bowl games from this year.
I'd have a lot more gridiron cred if I just gave the favorites the wins (Bama beats Florida; Texas beats BSU; then, Bama beats Texas), because my tournament would seem so logical. If Texas or Boise win it all, it will look stupid (rotten face validity), but we really don't know who'd stay healthy, who'd be hot, etc. My tourney would always seem most accurate if the champ magically turned out to the the BCS champ, but if that were the case, why would I need my tourney?
The probability of winning the semi-final games are:
Alabama 62.5%
Florida 37.5%
Texas 57.1%
Boise State 42.9%
The probability of BCS Championship Game match-ups are:
Alabama-Texas 35.7%
Alabama-Boise State 26.8%
Florida-Texas 21.4%
Florida-Boise State 16.1%
The chances of winning the tourney:
Alabama 45.6%
Florida 23.8%
Texas 19.0%
Boise State 11.6%
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