Sunday, October 10, 2010

Week 6, 2010: New Book Makes the BCS Versus Tourney Talk Heat Up

With the publication of a new book entitled Death to the BCS which argues for a sixteen-team playoff according to those who had pre-publication copies, and discusses the downsides of the current system, the debate over college playoffs bubbled up to the surface yet again. The book's content led columnist Bob Kravitz of the Indianapolis Star to agree with the book's conclusion that a playoff should replace the BCS.

And the "Comments" section of the web version of the article (which a friend of mine who hates Larry Bird always uses to get some digs in commenting about Pacer articles) provides an opportunity to see arguments, both pro and con about a college football tourney. I don't argue with anyone who loves the bowls (I love the bowls) or is concerned about academics (I love academics), and maybe my ten-team tourney that utilizes the current BCS bowls is like a horse designed by a committee rather than a parsimonious solution. But here are my responses to some of the readers' comments:

1) People love a warm weather holiday trip: I agree, that is why I utilize the BCS bowls as quarterfinals.

2) Comment, "Do you really think a team's fanbase would have the money and/or time to buy tickets for and travel to 3 bowl games in 3 straight weeks?": No, I don't think they do. That is why I have seeds seven to ten play first round games within driving range of one of the schools. The holiday trip to a BCS Bowl quarterfinal is where the bowls and the schools push their fans to spend their cash.

My semi-finals are held in a domed location in a double-header format, and these domes can spread the tourney to Big Ten country (such as Indy and Detroit) and Big XII land (Dallas and St. Louis). For one thing, I like the idea of allowing northern teams to play to their local fanbase. Since I started this fake tourney, the last time the semi-finals were in Indianapolis at the RCA Dome was 2002, the year of the Maurice Clarett Ohio State championship team. It was bitterly cold that weekend, but in my tourney, the semi-finals in downtown Indy featured a first game of USC against Oklahoma, and the second game of Ohio State versus Georgia. Sell-out? OSU fans buy half the tickets for regular season Indiana U. home games in Bloomington; I think the Buckeye fans would have stormed Indy. I think the vibe downtown, even in the bitterly cold, would be comparable to hoops Final Fours, but also very different and unique. Besides fans of the semi-finalists, I think a lot of football fans would buy up tickets months before, just to see the doubleheader spectacle.

Let's look at this week's projections (see WAY below) to see how ticket sales might be. This "if the season ended today" tourney has first round games that are an hour and a half drive from each school with the regional advantage. LSU-Florida State, would that sell out the SuperDome? Duh. In about 29 minutes. Now I am not as sure about West Virginia-Auburn in Pittsburgh, but I think Mountaineer fans and a few Auburn loyalists would leave few empty seats.

How about the BCS Bowl quarterfinals? The Orange Bowl would feature Boise State versus the WVU-Auburn winner. I think BSU-Auburn would sell out, BSU-WVU would not be as likely, but tickets would not go for $1 either, like the real Orange Bowl did two seasons ago. A Rose Bowl with Oregon and LSU would sell out; whereas, Oregon versus the Seminoles may not, although the FSU fans may travel better than usual with the chance to be in the "Granddaddy." Maybe Burt Reynolds would inspire the Noles fans to hit Hollywood. With TCU being a state away, and Nebraska fans being, well, Nebraska fans, the Sugar Bowl would be another New Orleans sell-out. A Fiesta Bowl with Oklahoma and Ohio State? Maybe 26 minutes before the ticketmaster website stopped dispensing surcharges. I'll put that line-up against whatever tickets the real BCS Bowls this year sell.

This year, my semi-finals are in Tropicana Field in Florida. Due to its low capacity and the fact that Alabama and Florida have been highly anticipated to be successful this year, I think all the tickets would have been sold months ago. Actually, in my scenario, the toughest ticket sell might be the national championship game back at the BCS locales. I think it would have to evolve to be a mini version of the Super Bowl, with tix going to corporate sponsors who will show up no matter who plays. Just like the Super Bowl, it may take years to get to that status, but it can become a unchallenged sell-out by name appeal only one day.

3) "Education has priority, and a longer season would encroach upon that": I agree it would lengthen the season, but why does it not matter that every other college football division plays out a tourney? Why is it ok for the Division I-AA (yes, I am slow to change when naming conventions get ridiculous) to play a TWENTY team tournament. Last year's winner was Villanova, not exactly a community college, but their players had to deal with a long season. When I was a student at Eastern Illinois, the Panthers went to the championship game of Division II (at the Zia Bowl in Albuquerque, which I attended), and to do so, they basically played every weekend from the start of the first semester to the Saturday before finals. I heard no complaints.

And it is a lot of games, but some of that was created by adding a twelfth game and conference championships. I would be willing to scale back to eleven games. Plus, those conference championship games seem to be the main thing stretching the dollars of fans. In many places, the conference geography is too widespread to be convenient (a recent ACC championship had a 26,000 attendance), and the Pac-12 will realize that realize that quickly, and the losing teams fans seem less likely to follow their team to their bowl.

My approach, and it is not perfect, is that teams lose a week of spring football for every week they play beyond the BCS Bowl Quarterfinals. At least I am trying to make some balance.

But I love college football, and respect what others love about it. For instance, I don't see a need for a sixteen team tourney, in which Alabama played Troy in the first round last season. Come on, Troy lost to Central Michigan in the GMAC Bowl. I would especially hate to see a player like a Heisman winner tear an ACL against Troy, but that is just me.

Last week, I used the BCS projections of my good friends at BCSevolution.com to set up the tourney rather than BCSguru.com (they were later and I was anxious). If I would have waited, my good friends at BCSguru actually had Arizona as the eighth seed rather than my use of Auburn. So the Wildcats loss would have provided me another "Auf wiedersehen," out of the tourney projections, but the way it was, we already had number one Alabama shocked out of the tourney projections, Miami fell out with FSU jumping in, and LSU saved themselves, again. Barely.

To the projections!!:

"In college football, one day you're in, and the next day you're out." -Daniel "Rudy" Ruettiger

OUT-Alabama, Miami (FL)
IN-Nebraska, Florida State

FIRST ROUND:

In New Orleans:#7 Louisiana State (SEC Champ) vs #9 Florida State (ACC champ)

In Pittsburgh: #8 Auburn (at-large) vs #10 West Virginia (Big East champ)


BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals)

Orange:
#1 Boise State (non-BCS conference automatic) vs Auburn/West Virginia winner

Fiesta: #4 Oklahoma (Big XII champ) vs #5 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)

Rose: #2 Oregon (Pac-10 champ) vs LSU/Florida State winner

Sugar: #3 Texas Christian (at-large) vs #6 Nebraska (at-large)

Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL

BCS Championship in Glendale AZ


5 6
Boise St 2 1
Oregon 4 2
TCU 5 3
Oklahoma 3 4
Ohio State 6 5
Nebraska n/a 6
LSU 7 7
Auburn 8 8
Florida State n/a 9
WVU 10 10
Alabama 1 n/a
Miami 9 n/a
Florida n/a n/a
Texas n/a n/a
VTU n/a n/a
Pitt n/a n/a


Pre 1 2 3 4
Boise St 5 2 6 6 2
Oregon 9 8 7 8 7
TCU 6 5 8 7 4
Oklahoma 7 n/a 4 5 6
Ohio State 2 4 3 3 5
Nebraska n/a 7 n/a n/a n/a
LSU n/a n/a n/a n/a 8
Auburn n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Florida State n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
WVU n/a 10 10 10 10
Alabama 1 1 1 1 1
Miami n/a 9 9 9 9
Florida 3 6 5 4 3
Texas 4 3 2 2 n/a
VTU 8 n/a n/a n/a n/a
Pitt 10 n/a n/a n/a n/a

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