As we hit the end of the Quarterfinals and move onto the Semi-Finals, time to look at the tournament so far and what's to come:
1) For the first time since 2005-06, the top four seeds advanced to the Semi-Finals. Back then, it was USC, Texas, Penn State, and Ohio State that advanced from the eight team tournament. This season, LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State, and Stanford become the first top four to make it from the ten team tournament.
2) It was Indianapolis' turn to host the Semi-Finals, but I switched it because of Indy having the Super Bowl. I refuse to have my semi-finals be overshadowed by another event, so Saint Louis hosts this year's Football's Final Four. Arlington TX will host next year, and Indy the year after that.
3) If my tourney was real, it would probably be better for Andrew Luck to play in Saint Louis than Indianapolis, where it would be a big distraction with the Colts having the top pick, et cetera.
4) It is funny how sometimes certain sections of my brackets end up all losers in their real life bowl games and vice versa. For instance the 1 LSU/8 Wisconsin/9 Clemson part of the bracket all lost their bowl games, and 2 Alabama/7 Boise State/10 West Virginia all won.
5) What a difference a seed makes. In the final standings, Boise State fell behind Arkansas for 6th seed. So instead of playing Stanford in the Rose Bowl (and winning), Boise State had to play in the First Round, losing to West Virginia, who played far above expectations, and even in the Broncos had won, they would have lost by three touchdowns to Alabama. So dropping from 6th to 7th took BSU from Final Four team to First Round loser.
6) I never thought I would have overtime games based on my system. A team has to win by less than 1 point in my calculations to "win in overtime," and I had not had that happen since Oklahoma State beat BYU in 1985-86. Well, this year it happened twice! West Virginia beat Boise State by an unbelievably slim 0.09 points (yes, I am the only person in America to be sitting on the edge of my seat whether Clemson would go for two with a minute to go in a 70-33 game).
Secondly, Stanford beat Arkansas by 0.6 points, but that is only because it was in the Rose Bowl. For years, and this is all pre-specified, I have given a small 1 to 1.5 points to teams with a "home state advantage." Stanford, like Wisconsin in their First Round game in Green Bay, received this small advantage. Well, every other time ever, it has turned out like Wisconsin, who won by 26 over Clemson rather than 24 or 25 outside of Wisconsin. So generally, no big deal. Well, for Stanford, the small home state advantage was enough to give them the narrow win. If the game had been at the Fiesta, Sugar, or Orange Bowl, Arkansas would have won, also in OT.
7) The First Round and Quarterfinal games are based on indirect comparisons of the teams actual performances, to determine who would have won if they had played at the same level and gone head to head. From now on, the Semi-Finals and Finals are based on a combination of computer ratings and how precise (or imprecise) the computers were at assessing all of the bowl games that did NOT involve the teams in my tournament. Anything is possible, but LSU and Alabama are very very likely to both win and play in the championship, for a meeting of 1 versus 2. Last year, I had a 1 versus 2 (Auburn and Oregon), but that was by far not as likely as this year. Last season, both Stanford and Ohio State, the other teams in my Final Four, had much better chances of crashing the party than Oklahoma State and Stanford do this season.
8) Semi-Finals are Saturday! I will set up the program to run ahead of time, but I will not run it until Saturday. Will I be shocked to see the Cowboys stun the Tide, or the Cardinal to upend the Tigers? We will see...
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