We are down to the last few days before my college football tournament begins to accumulate results. The brackets are set, and, using the super secret formula that I found buried beneath Colonel Sanders porch (by the way, in Kentucky, are KFC's only known as "FC"?), I will use the actual bowl results to play out my tournament. I can't wait!
As we proceed through the on-going bowl season, let's try to get a handle on this season's tournament. Compared to other seasons, I feel like this season does not have a preconceived form that will play out, except Oklahoma should beat Connecticut in the first round. Why the uncertainty?
A) The underachieving experienced programs
In the five seasons since my tourney went to a ten team playoff from eight, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Virginia Tech have a combined eleven appearances. So, go with the vets, right? Well, of the eight previous appearances during that span leading up to this season, they have a grand total of one semi-final appearance, and that was in the 2008-2009 season when Oklahoma eked out a 27-24 Fiesta Bowl win over Penn State. Perhaps Ohio State is on the way up, beating Georgia Tech last season in the first round before their loss to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, but their Rose Bowl flame outs to Boise State and West Virginia still leave a bad taste in Columbus mouths. Will these teams step up or retreat to recent form?
B) They would rather forget last season's playoffs
TCU made their first tournament appearance last season, and Oregon returned after a period of USC Pac-10 domination. But, ugh, the hangover from their last appearance still hangs over the Horned Frogs and Ducks. TCU looked a bit stagestruck on the Rose Bowl turf last season, being easily handled by Florida 29-10. The Gators went on to also easily whip Alabama and Boise State on their path to the national title, but TCU made enough mistakes to take their fair share of responsibility.
Meanwhile, Oregon was seen last season as seventh seed with upside. All they had to do was beat Iowa in the first round in Seattle, and then stay in Pac-10 Fiesta country and beat a Texas team that looked vulnerable against Nebraska in the Big XII championship, then move on to the semis and win a rematch against Boise State, who would get past fading Cincinnati, and voila, the Ducks were in back in Pac-10 country in Pasadena for the championship game. But, oops, the Ducks lost to Iowa 24-17 to never get out of the Pacific Northwest. The only part that played out was Boise beating the Bearcats.
So will TCU and Oregon use last season as a springboard, or will the diving board break in two under the weight of last season's disappointments.
C) Being in the top two isn't so easy
Auburn and Oregon will be pretty big favorites to win their BCS Bowl quarterfinals, but these games will not be pre-coronation walkovers. Why? Oklahoma and Arkansas. If either the Tigers or Ducks show a bit of rust, the Sooners and the Razorbacks have the talent to take advantage. The 11-2 Sooners are the only team in the tournament with a Sagarin single digit ranking of strength of schedule (#8) and Arkansas carriers the highly successful SEC banner into the tourney. Plus, Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino's Louisville team advanced to the semis with a 20-18 Orange Bowl win over Michigan in 2006-2007. So life won't be easy for the top two seeds with these opponents. If Virginia Tech beats Arkansas in the First Round to gain a match-up against Auburn, the Hokies don't appear to have the stuff to beat the top seed. If Connecticut pulls off the upset over Oklahoma in their First Round game, they will be no match in a BCS Bowl quarterfinal, although they will get a nice trip out of the deal.
D) Are conference histories a safe bet?
As Tarzan would say, "SEC good, Big Ten bad." Of the four previous seasons of a ten team tournament, naturally, there have been 16 teams in the semi-finals. Seven of those 16 have been SEC teams. So, what's the rub? Well, Auburn and Arkansas haven't been one of those teams. During the same period, the Big Ten has yet to make the semis. But Wisconsin, at least during the Alvarez era, tended to play well on the big stage compared to their Big Ten peers.
E) Distraction or motivation?
You've got Heisman winner Cam Newton playing under a cloud of controversy of allegations of his pops shopping him around Smokey Robinson, let's call it Dad-gate. And then the initial reports of Ohio State trading autographs for tattoos (let's call it Ink-gate) that was followed up by big suspensions for next year for selling memorabilia for cash (eBay-gate). So will these players rise up and play it big for what may be the finale of their careers, or will the scrutiny of these problems weigh on their shoulders, and they will play like they are saving themselves for their NFL marriage?
So there seems like little is certain, except Oklahoma will beat UConn senseless. But I am going to say a team to watch to win it all is....Stanford. They have motivation, because their coach may leave to head to his Ann Arbor alam mater, but without the gall to just leave his team early when they get their shot at a big bowl (hi Brian Kelly!). They have geography, playing in California in the Rose Bowl, and if they advance, a win in the St Pete semi-finals will put them right back in Pac-10 country in Arizona.
And if you like a darker dark horse, how 'bout seventh seed Oklahoma. Their First Round game versus UConn might serve as a warm-up, and put them on a path to take on a rusty team.
So when all seems screwy and confusing, what picks to make for the First Round and BCS Bowl quarterfinals? All of the better seeds seem vulnerable, so I say they all win....win! So Oklahoma and Arkansas will win the First Round games easily, Auburn will survive a close game with Oklahoma, Oregon will handle Arkansas by 10, TCU will outlast Ohio State, and Stanford will send the Badgers home.
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