Saturday, January 1, 2011

It's Time!!!!!

The weeks have passed, and it is FINALLY time to play out a college football tournament! January 1st is always my favorite day of the year, because I love the Rose Parade and a day filled with college football. For my tournament, this is what we will know at the end of New Year's Day:

1) The real life Fiesta Bowl is an actual match-up in my mythical tourney, matching Oklahoma and Connecticut in their First Round game, so we will know which advances to the BCS quarterfinals.

2) The real life Rose Bowl performances of Wisconsin and TCU will provide the bar that Stanford (Orange) and Ohio State (Sugar), respectfully, will have to surpass to win their tournament match-ups.

According to reports, the Orange and Fiesta Bowls will not sell out in the real world of BCS. Although it depends upon who wins the First Round games, I believe there will be no unsold seats for my tournament. The real-life Orange Bowl's Stanford-VTU match-up would not have the appeal of a TCU-Ohio State quarterfinal, and we will have to see what my tourney's Fiesta Bowl ends up as, however, Oregon-Oklahoma or Oregon-Arkansas would sell more tix than the real Fiesta Bowl.

But the Oklahoma-UConn game won't sell out in real life, why would it in my tourney as a First Round game? Good question! For one thing, as part of a tournament, it would have more interest to the schools' fans than a BCS Bowl game. Secondly, the First Round games are designed to give one school a "geographic advantage" that will put people in the seats without requiring airfare. If I was told by my blue ribbon advisers that the OU-UConn game would not sell out Arlington TX, then I would put it in Stillwater OK, which I believe would guarantee a full house.

So far, bowl season started with loads of blow-outs, however, games are starting to get more competitive. Of the 22 games so far, 10 have been margins of 20+. Though we will know more by 5pm EST tomorrow, some of the conferences have been surprising: the 3-1 Mountain West with the only loss of future Pac-12 Utah to future Mountain West Boise State; Illinois and Iowa representing the Big Ten quite well; the much maligned Big East at 3-1 with West Virginia, often seen as the most legitimate team nationally looking like the weakest link; ACC holding their own at 4-3; the Pac Ten showing danger signs when Arizona was whipped by Oklahoma State, only to be buoyed by Washington's Holiday Bowl win; Big 12 going 1-4, and the SEC at 0-3. These are big "so far's" since most of the SEC and Big Ten action is still awaiting them.

So, if the trends hold, here are some possible scenarios for my tourney:

1) Big Ten is super, Arizona's game indicates Pac-10 trouble:

First Round:
Oklahoma over Connecticut
Virginia Tech over Arkansas

BCS Bowl quarterfinals:
Auburn over Virginia Tech
Wisconsin over Stanford
Oklahoma over Oregon
Ohio State over TCU

2) Washington showed that the Pac-10 will reign and the top of the Big Ten will return to its weaker form:

First Round:
Oklahoma over Connecticut
Arkansas over Virginia Tech

BCS Bowl quarterfinals:
Oklahoma over Auburn
Stanford over Wisconsin
Oregon over Arkansas
TCU over Ohio State

3) It's all about the SEC and don't forget it!:

First Round:
Oklahoma over Connecticut
Arkansas over Virginia Tech

BCS Bowl quarterfinals:
Auburn over Oklahoma
Stanford over Wisconsin
Arkansas over Oregon
TCU over Ohio State

So will Connecticut shock Oklahoma like Boise State did? Will Oklahoma cruise to a First Round victory? We will know late Saturday, same bat time, same bat blog!

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