Tide revenge? After my tourney takes away two Bama titles, can they win from at-large spot?

In the four seasons I have blogged my tournament, two turned out just like real life, and two provided different champions.  And both of the latter were at the expense of Alabama losing in my simulated semi-finals.  So instead of three national championships over the past four seasons, the Tide only have one in my tournament.  But if they ever get one back, it could be this season as Alabama looks to be a three or four seed, or higher if things get really crazy this Saturday. 

One thing that will really help Bama is that the computer ratings that I use that are convertible to point spreads, Sagarin and Dunkel really like Alabama.  Alabama is ranked second in both, albeit a distant second to Florida State, but far above #11 Auburn.  Unless Auburn does really well versus Mizzou and their Bowl game, and Bama flops, Alabama would be a big favorite over Auburn if they rematched in either Indianapolis (Semi-Finals) or Pasadena (Championship). 

So we have twenty teams left for the ten slots in my tourney that will be revealed Sunday night.

There are the six conference championship winners:

• ACC: Florida State-Duke winner
• Big Ten: Ohio State-Michigan State winner
• SEC: Auburn-Missouri winner
• Pac-12: Stanford-Arizona State winner
• Big XII: Oklahoma State if they win; otherwise, winner of Baylor-Texas
• AAC: Central Florida if they win or ranked above Cincinnati; if UCF loses, Cincy wins and is above UCF in rankings

Plus, we assume Northern Illinois will be automatic qualifier if they win their conference champion game

So there will be three or four at-large berths:

• Alabama
• a losing Florida State
• a losing Ohio State
• SEC losing team
• South Carolina
• Baylor if they don't win Big XII
• Oregon
• Clemson
• a losing Oklahoma State
• LSU
• Oklahoma

Now really, even with four at-larges, most likely it will be down to:

• Alabama (sure thing)
• SEC loser
• South Carolina
• Baylor
• and maybe a losing Ohio State

and Oregon, Clemson, LSU, and Oklahoma with very little chance of getting in.  There is a possibility that there will be three at-large berths and all going to SEC teams: Alabama, South Carolina, and the SEC losing team, although one-loss Baylor's Ken Starr might sue.

What is the tourney committee rooting for?  Well, they would not mind Missouri versus Northern Illinois in Chicago, if they have to have Northern again with a regional advantage (NIU lost to Louisville last season in Chicago in the 8/9 game). 

Since my projections two weeks ago, Clemson, Oregon, and Fresno State are out, and Baylor is on the bubble. So as of today, I will project:

First Round:

In Jacksonville, Tampa, or Gainesville:

#7 SEC loser or South Carolina (at-large) versus #10 Central Florida (AAC) 

 

In Chicago:

#8 Baylor or SEC loser (at-large) versus #9 Northern Illinois (automatic non-AQ) 

 

Quarterfinals:

Orange Bowl:

#1 Florida State (ACC) versus 8/9 winner

Fiesta Bowl:

#4 Alabama (at-large) versus #5 Oklahoma State (Big XII)

Rose Bowl:

#2 Ohio State (Big Ten) versus 7/10 winner

 

Sugar Bowl:

#3 Auburn (SEC) versus #6 Stanford (Pac-12) 

 

Semi-Finals in Indianapolis, Championship in Pasadena