Twenty-three....(with four teams holding onto a slight at-large prayer), all these Thanksgiving weekend games and I only eliminated two to six teams!
This is the really, really fun part of the college football season! I would add infinite exclamation points, if I could. It seems like every waking moment of Friday and Saturday will feature a game with big implications for the tournament.
At the beginning of the week, I counted 24 teams still with a shot of getting into my tournament. But, I didn't know that the BCS actually would produce their own list of who is still eligible for their bowls, and they listed 27. Oops, I thought, who did I miss! Well, the BCS still puts Nevada, Utah, and Arizona in the mix. And they are right that the non-BCS conference schools have a chance if both TCU and Boise State lose, but I still think the Notre Dame loss really eliminated Utah. And I don't think Arizona has a shot for my tourney, but the BCS probably left them in as a safety valve for both the Rose and Fiesta, in case they need a team to come to the rescue to fill a slot.
So as much as I wanted to have 24 teams with a chance for my tourney, so I could proceed with a whole '24' and Jack Bauer motif to counting down as teams are eliminated, I think Nevada needs to be included for the potential qualifiers list, and crank it up to 25.
So in my tourney scenario, 25 teams have a shot at the national title. In the current BCS system, what is it, maybe five to ten?
But things would be different in my tourney. Alabama-Auburn would have a different feel, in that an Auburn loss would just cost them a shot at number one seed, as they still will make the tourney if they beat South Carolina. Alabama's shot at the national championship would be more critical in this match-up, to try to get an at-large slot with a win over the Tigers. I still think it would be a HUGE game (because I am definitely psyched at its tourney implications) in my system, but just different.
Here I will tally and update this weekend's activity, with lists below of team status. Let the games begin!
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1) WVU beats Pitt, moves UConn to "control destiny," and Pitt to "needing help"
2) Oregon clinches first automatic birth with win over Arizona
3) Nevada beats Boise St, moves BSU from "control destiny" to "needing help"
4) Arkansas beats LSU, moves LSU from "control destiny" to "needing help"
5) Maryland beats NC State, moves NCSU from "needing help" to "OUT!"; and moves Florida State from "needing help" to "control destiny"
6) Texas Christian beats New Mexico, Boise State loses to Nevada, TCU moves from "control destiny" to "Unofficially IN"
7) Connecticut beat Cincinnati, eliminating Syracuse into "OUT!"
8) Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State, moving Oklahoma State to "needing help"
* denotes that the team needs at at-large birth and their chances are low
They are officially in:
Oregon (Pac 10 champ)
They are unofficial shoe-ins:
Texas Christian (non-BCS automatic)
They control their own destiny:
Auburn
Virginia Tech
South Carolina
Nebraska
Connecticut
Florida State
They need help:
Stanford
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Michigan State
*Alabama
Arkansas
*Missouri
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Oklahoma
*Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
*Nevada
Boise State
Louisiana State
They are out:
North Carolina State
Syracuse
SUMMARY:
SEVEN AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS:
Oregon
Auburn/South Carolina winner
Oklahoma (or Texas A & M)/Nebraska winner
Virginia Tech/Florida State winner
Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Michigan State
Connecticut. West Virginia, or Pittsburgh
Texas Christian
THREE AT-LARGE:
(based on BCSguru and BCSknowhow projections)
Stanford
Ohio State or Wisconsin
Arkansas
(based on BCSevolution projections)
Stanford
Ohio State or Wisconsin
Boise State
Other implications of the weekend:
The projected match-up of Stanford/Wisconsin or Stanford/Ohio State moves that game to the Rose Bowl, Oregon may be Fiesta bound
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