Monday, November 29, 2010

Championship Week Will Lack the Tumult of Last Season

This upcoming week of college football will seem absolutely sedate compared to last season. Instead of Oregon and Oregon State playing for a playoff slot, the Ducks are already in. Unlike last season when Alabama and Florida were the top two in the country and headed for a showdown in the SEC championship, none of the current projected ten tourney teams are playing one another this week. As Iowa sat on a thin bubble last season as the tenth seed and had to survive threats by Pitt (vs Cincy) and Nebraska (vs Texas) to steal their spot, this year's bubble team Arkansas just needs to root for Auburn to beat South Carolina. And if Pitt and the Huskers both won in 2009, then undefeated Boise State may have fallen out of the tourney. Next to last at-large Ohio State seems impervious this year to such threats.

Even different scenarios of championship week conference showdowns will only change the names, not the seedings of the conference champs. The Big East champ will get tenth seed, and, assuming Auburn wins the SEC, the ACC champ will be ninth seed, and the Big XII winner will be eighth. And South Carolina winning would only boost the latter two up one seed each.

So South Carolina winning is the only game that could shake things up at all. Auburn would probably steal Arkansas' at large slot, while tumbling down in the rankings, perhaps ruining the Stanford/Wisconsin dreamy Rosey Bowl scenario. Oh yeah, I guess Oregon could lose the "Civil War" to their in-state Beaver rivals, but after Stanford thrashed OSU last week, the chances seem low. But, then again, those crazy rivalry games can be unpredictable.

In my current projections, it might seem a lower seed can have its advantages. Ohio State is a notch lower than Wisconsin, so it appears that the Badgers will get the pride of the automatic bid along with a trip to Pasadena. But are the Buckeyes in a better place as an at-large, playing last year's tourney flop TCU (lost to lower seed Florida 29-10), and not having to play cardinal-hot Stanford in their home state? Is it better to be second seed for Oregon than top seed like Auburn? Instead of getting a experienced tournament foe out of the 8/9 game between Oklahoma and Virginia Tech, the Ducks could get inexperienced tourney teams Arkansas or Connecticut from the 7/10 game. Plus, say both top teams make it to the semis, would you rather be #2 and face the TCU/OSU winner, or be #1 and face the Stanford/Wisconsin winner? Number two doesn't sound so bad.

So even though this week doesn't have the minute by minute crazy scenarios of last season, there is still a chance the Beavers and Gamecocks can keep things interesting.

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