Week 12: Controversy On My Tournament Horizon

Of course, I like my ten team tournament. But it is not perfect, as far as potential controversy if it were in place. After all, there is controversy after selection of the 65 team men's hoops, much less a ten-team football tourney. It could be easily 12 or 16 teams. Last year, there would not have been much controversy, the top ten BCS ranked teams made the tourney. However, this season could have lots of issues:

1) The Deserving Big East:

The fact that the Big East gets a BCS bowl even raises talk show discussion with the current system. A Pitt team with four losses could make it, while a one or two loss at-large will stay home. Since I use BCS automatic births, I use the same rules the BCS does about when a conference loses an automatic bid. And right now, the Big East is "in," so I have no gripes.

2) The Big Ten Triumvirate:

During the 4th quarter of the Michigan State-Purdue game last Saturday, my tournament committee had to be secretly rooting for Purdue to reduce potential controversy. Unfortunately for them, Purdue played in the fourth quarter like a team manipulated in a Buffalo Wild Wings commercial. Did you see that blocked punt? It was snuffed out like a candle at the end of church. I have never seen a punt blocked in such a smothering fashion that the ball didn't even bounce away.

The reason the committee was rooting for the Boilers is because there is a good chance that three Big Ten teams will finish at 11-1, whereas only one may make the tourney. And since they didn't play a complete head to head (MSU beat Wisc, Wisc beat OSU, and OSU did not play MSU), all can make a case that they should be the chosen one, and create their own 'lil uproar if they don't make it. Next year, the conference championship game might help solidify things, but not 100% of the time.

So the committee will silently root this weekend for Penn State to give the Spartans their second loss, and, if Ohio State wins, hope that LSU can be upended (they have been playing with fire, haven't they?) so that an at-large slot opens to allow the two Big Ten teams to make it in.

3) The "other" USC

Normally, South Carolina making the tourney would be welcome. They haven't been in my tourney for a generation, so they are a fresh face with a familiar face (Spurrier) leading the way. But South Carolina beating an undefeated Auburn creates its own issues. The Gamecocks grab the SEC automatic, and Auburn most likely swallows up an at-large bid, sending Stanford out of the mix.

This could have happened last year, but the undefeateds survived. But if Nebraska beat Texas and Pitt beat Cincy last season, Iowa, and maybe Boise State (who ended up second in the tourney) would have been out of the tourney mix.

And if LSU sticks around as an at-large, a South Carolina win would put three SEC teams in the tourney. That is one deviation from the BCS system for my tourney, I don't limit conferences to two teams. When the BCS went to ten teams, and so did my tourney, the first season, Wisconsin was the clear 7th seed. Michigan and Ohio State were in the top of the seedings, and if Wisconsin didn't make it, I would have to throw in some less deserving team just for the sake of it. I was against it then, and there can be three, even four SEC teams in my tournament.

4) The Iron Bowl Leap Frog

If Alabama does beat Auburn this week, they probably will jump high in the standings, and perhaps grab an at-large bid. With two losses, the Tide could roll over teams with a single loss for the precious at-large bids. 'Bama squeezing out a team with Stanford or the Big Ten teams will lead to lots of griping.

Right now, it looks like 24 teams have a shot at my ten-team tourney.Eleven of them control their own destiny (keep winning and they are in), and 13 need some help (I include Stanford here because teams like South Carolina could push them out even if they win). Here they are:

They control their own destiny:
Oregon
Auburn
Boise State
Texas Christian
LSU
Oklahoma State
Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh
South Carolina
NC State
Nebraska

They need help:
Stanford
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Michigan State
Alabama
Arkansas
Florida State
Missouri
Connecticut
West Virginia
Syracuse
Oklahoma
Texas A&M

On to the current projections!:

"In college football, one day you're in, and the next day you're out." -Mary Pat Pelini, wife of Bo Pelini

OUT- Nebraska
IN-Oklahoma State

FIRST ROUND:

In Green Bay:#7 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ) vs #10 Pittsburgh (Big East champ)

In Norman, OK:#8 Oklahoma State (Big XII champ) vs #9 Virginia Tech (ACC champ)


BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Rose: #1 Oregon (Pac-10 champ) vs Oklahoma State/Virginia Tech winner

Orange: #4 Boise State (at-large) vs #5 LSU (at-large)

Sugar: #2 Auburn (SEC champ) vs the Wisconsin/Pittsburgh winner

Fiesta: #3 Texas Christian (non-BCS conference automatic) vs #6 Stanford (at-large)

Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL

BCS Championship in Glendale AZ

Week by week seedings:

Week	10	11	12
Oregon	1	1	1
Auburn	2	2	2
TCU	3	3	3
Boise State	4	4	4
LSU	5	5	5
Stanford	6	6	6
Wisconsin	7	7	7
Oklahoma St	n/a	n/a	8
Virginia Tech	9	9	9
Pittsburgh	10	10	10
Nebraska	8	8	n/a
Utah	n/a	n/a	n/a
Alabama	n/a	n/a	n/a
Michigan State	n/a	n/a	n/a
Missouri	n/a	n/a	n/a
Florida State	n/a	n/a	n/a
Oklahoma	n/a	n/a	n/a
West Virginia	n/a	n/a	n/a
Ohio State	n/a	n/a	n/a
Miami	n/a	n/a	n/a
Florida	n/a	n/a	n/a
Texas	n/a	n/a	n/a

Week	5	6	7	8	9
Oregon	4	2	2	2	1
Auburn	8	8	4	1	2
TCU	5	3	5	4	3
Boise State	2	1	3	3	4
LSU	7	7	6	n/a	n/a
Stanford	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Wisconsin	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	8
Oklahoma St	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Virginia Tech	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	9
Pittsburgh	n/a	n/a	n/a	10	10
Nebraska	n/a	6	n/a	n/a	7
Utah	n/a	n/a	n/a	8	5
Alabama	1	n/a	8	7	6
Michigan State	n/a	n/a	7	5	n/a
Missouri	n/a	n/a	n/a	6	n/a
Florida State	n/a	9	9	9	n/a
Oklahoma	3	4	1	n/a	n/a
West Virginia	10	10	10	n/a	n/a
Ohio State	6	5	n/a	n/a	n/a
Miami	9	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Florida	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Texas	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Week	Pre	1	2	3	4
Oregon	9	8	7	8	7
Auburn	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
TCU	6	5	8	7	4
Boise State	5	2	6	6	2
LSU	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	8
Stanford	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Wisconsin	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Oklahoma St	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Virginia Tech	8	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Pittsburgh	10	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Nebraska	n/a	7	n/a	n/a	n/a
Utah	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Alabama	1	1	1	1	1
Michigan State	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Missouri	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Florida State	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Oklahoma	7	n/a	4	5	6
West Virginia	n/a	10	10	10	10
Ohio State	2	4	3	3	5
Miami	n/a	9	9	9	9
Florida	3	6	5	4	3
Texas	4	3	2	2	n/a