Week 13: The tournament concrete is beginning to settle

Whew what a weekend of college football! I started the weekend with 25 teams that could make my tournament. Then two teams were eliminated due to outcomes of other games, NC State and Syracuse. The BCS standings from tonight eliminated seven more, so 16 teams remain alive for ten spots.

Only one game this weekend threatens the at-large teams sitting on the bubble. A South Carolina win not only gives them a spot, but likely drops Auburn to the point that they would take an at-large bid from SEC comrade Arkansas.

Michigan State sits with the biggest gripe: 11-1, and below Arkansas, even though most of their eyes will point to the Big East champ as the usurper of their slot.

The Rose Bowl looks to get Stanford/Wisconsin; they will pray for Auburn and Oregon to keep winning to seeds don't scramble. Late in the season, the Hogs and Huskies make their first entrance into the projections; welcome Arkansas and Connecticut!

The Boise State game was unbelievable! Boise State just couldn't give their defense enough of a break in the second half to be effective. Even their exciting TD run to give the Broncos the lead back at 31-24 was SO fast, it put the winded defense right back on the field, and the Wolf Pack went for the kill.

I am one who was disappointed. I guess I don't have a dog in the championship hunt (I went to, well, Illinois), but I want to see once in a generation/lifetime type things. People always want to diss the non-BCS automatics, but they are 3-1 head to head with the automatics in BCS bowls, with teams like Alabama and Oklahoma hanging above their mantels. I just wanted to see what BSU would do against a top team. Maybe they would be destroyed, who knows. In my tourney last season, Boise beat Cincinnati 38-24 in the Orange Bowl, beat Texas without Colt McCoy by 2 in the semis, and then were destroyed by Florida in the championship game. I wondered if they would go all the way this season. But like Michigan State, they will be on the outside looking in.

Here is the current status:

They are officially in:
Oregon (Pac 10 champ)

They are unofficial shoe-ins:
Texas Christian (non-BCS automatic)
Stanford
Wisconsin
Ohio State

They control their own destiny:
Auburn
Virginia Tech
South Carolina
Nebraska
Connecticut
Florida State
Oklahoma

They need help:
Arkansas
Michigan State
Pittsburgh
West Virginia

They are out:
North Carolina State
Syracuse
Alabama
Missouri
Oklahoma State
Texas A&M
Nevada
Boise State
Louisiana State

SUMMARY:

SEVEN AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS:
Oregon
Auburn/South Carolina winner
Oklahoma (or Texas A & M)/Nebraska winner
Virginia Tech/Florida State winner
Wisconsin, Ohio State, or Michigan State
Connecticut. West Virginia, or Pittsburgh
Texas Christian

THREE AT-LARGE:

Stanford
Ohio State or Wisconsin
Arkansas
------------------------
Auburn (if they lose SEC championship)
Michigan State

On to the current projections!:

"In college football, one day you're in, and the next day you're out." -Major Applewhite

OUT- Boise State, Louisiana State, Pittsburgh
IN-Ohio State, Arkansas, Connecticut

FIRST ROUND:

In East Rutherford, NJ: #7 Arkansas (at-large) vs #10 Connecticut (Big East champ)

In Arlington, TX: #8 Oklahoma (Big XII champ) vs #9 Virginia Tech (ACC champ)


BCS BOWLS (Quarterfinals):

Sugar: #1 Auburn (SEC champ) vs the Oklahoma/Virginia Tech winner

Rose: #4 Stanford (at-large) vs #5 Wisconsin (Big Ten champ)

Fiesta: #2 Oregon (Pac-10 champ) vs Arkansas/Connecticut winner

Orange: #3 Texas Christian (non-BCS conference automatic) vs #6 Ohio State (at-large)

Semi-finals in St Petersburg FL

BCS Championship in Glendale AZ

Week by week seedings:

Week	10	11	12	13
Auburn	2	2	2	1
Oregon	1	1	1	2
TCU	3	3	3	3
Stanford	6	6	6	4
Wisconsin	7	7	7	5
Ohio State	n/a	n/a	n/a	6
Arkansas	n/a	n/a	n/a	7
Oklahoma	n/a	n/a	n/a	8
Virginia Tech	9	9	9	9
Connecticut	n/a	n/a	n/a	10
Boise State	4	4	4	n/a
LSU	5	5	5	n/a
Oklahoma St	n/a	n/a	8	n/a
Pittsburgh	10	10	10	n/a
Nebraska	8	8	n/a	n/a
Utah	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Alabama	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Michigan State	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Missouri	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Florida State	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
West Virginia	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Miami	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Florida	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Texas	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Week	5	6	7	8	9
Auburn	8	8	4	1	2
Oregon	4	2	2	2	1
TCU	5	3	5	4	3
Stanford	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Wisconsin	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	8
Ohio State	6	5	n/a	n/a	n/a
Arkansas	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Oklahoma	3	4	1	n/a	n/a
Virginia Tech	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	9
Connecticut	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Boise State	2	1	3	3	4
LSU	7	7	6	n/a	n/a
Oklahoma St	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Pittsburgh	n/a	n/a	n/a	10	10
Nebraska	n/a	6	n/a	n/a	7
Utah	n/a	n/a	n/a	8	5
Alabama	1	n/a	8	7	6
Michigan State	n/a	n/a	7	5	n/a
Missouri	n/a	n/a	n/a	6	n/a
Florida State	n/a	9	9	9	n/a
West Virginia	10	10	10	n/a	n/a
Miami	9	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Florida	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Texas	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a

Week	Pre	1	2	3	4
Auburn	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Oregon	9	8	7	8	7
TCU	6	5	8	7	4
Stanford	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Wisconsin	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Ohio State	2	4	3	3	5
Arkansas	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Oklahoma	7	n/a	4	5	6
Virginia Tech	8	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Connecticut	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Boise State	5	2	6	6	2
LSU	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	8
Oklahoma St	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Pittsburgh	10	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Nebraska	n/a	7	n/a	n/a	n/a
Utah	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Alabama	1	1	1	1	1
Michigan State	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Missouri	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Florida State	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
West Virginia	n/a	10	10	10	10
Miami	n/a	9	9	9	9
Florida	3	6	5	4	3
Texas	4	3	2	2	n/a